This season, I have also done phone interviews with
Talkinghoops.com.
Links to those interviews appear next to the subsequent corresponding weekly column.
The Season Of Sleepy Hollow
Michigan State would have been the no-brainer choice for Preseason No. 1, but Mateen Cleaves broke his foot and will miss 8-10 weeks. North Carolina lost guard Ronald Curry to a torn Achilles tendon injury he suffered playing football and it's also without guards Ed Cota and Terence Newby indefinitely due to suspensions. Cincinnati, Arizona, Stanford and DePaul are all front-loaded with talent but are turning the reins over to unproven starters in the backcourt. Meanwhile, Tennessee and Wake Forest will try once again to get away with having scoring guards run their clubs at the point. The grandeur and tradition that is Kentucky rests in the hands of ... Saul Smith?
But some backcourts have no worries. Connecticut is still loaded and has Khalid El-Amin back to lead the way (but Richard Hamilton's scoring will be missed). Ohio State returns the best backcourt in the nation (Scoonie Penn/Michael Redd). St. John's still has Erick Barkley and Bootsy Thornton to ease the loss of Ron Artest. Gonzaga has both Matt Santangelo and Richie Frahm back to push the pace.
The most intact powerhouse from a year ago is Auburn. They get the nod as Preseason No. 1 because they'll have to make the fewest adjustments to start out the season (and because they have the best player in the country in Chris Porter) but, remember, they severely underachieved in the postseason last year so they have a lot yet to prove about their legitimacy. That's not entirely a bad thing, either. In fact, one problem that Michigan State might have faced coming into this season was complacency after last year's Final Four appearance. But with the injury to Cleaves and a killer schedule, they'll have to circle the horses and muster all their might just to stay in the national conversation. Florida has more individual talent than any team in the country. If they can play as a team, especially in the halfcourt, and not like a bunch of all-stars (as they tend to do in their run-and-shoot offense), then the sky's the limit. Illinois has lots of incoming talent that's better than the squad that made the Big 10 final at the end of last season. They're one to watch. Are the kids at DePaul ready to step into the big time this year (or are these super sophs still a year away)? "This could be the year that John Chaney and Temple finally make the Final Four." Where have we heard that one before? (But remember we were saying the same thing about Jim Calhoun only last year.)
Duke and Kentucky may not be starting off the Aughts as the powerhouses they were in the Nineties, but both are still clubs to be reckoned with. Kansas may be headed back to its customary (regular season) elite status this year.
There's a new conference in the land. The WAC split in two and now we have the Mountain West Conference, headed by Utah. (Maybe now Fresno State can find its way back to the big dance by winning what's left of the WAC.)
The recognizable name coaching changes all occurred at schools that don't expect much right out of the blocks. Matt Doherty is in at Notre Dame, Quin Snyder at Missouri and Steve Alford at Iowa. Dave Bliss moved from New Mexico to Baylor and Fran Fraschilla is now at New Mexico. Dan Monson (ex-Gonzaga) is the new coach at Minnesota (on probation).
You'd think people could be more original in naming their tournaments. Every one is either a "classic" or a "shootout", but that's not the worst of it:
Ordinarily, the best matchups of the season happen early in the November and December preseason tournaments. That won't quite be the case this year with expected powers Michigan State and North Carolina possibly going the entire preseason without their point guards. In fact, the big picture on this year's season of college basketball may not come fully into focus until the February 5th game when Connecticut visits (a fully loaded) Michigan State.
Things get underway with a bang this week in the first COACHES V CANCER CLASSIC (with Connecticut, Duke and Stanford in the 4-team draw). The Huskies have fewer questions to answer at the start of the season so look for them to come through. Likewise, look for Syracuse (with its 5 returning starters) to get past Princeton (with its new backcourt) in the NABC CLASSIC.
The race to Indianapolis is on, folks.
Juggernaut II: A New Beginning
Duke's two losses aren't such a surprise. They did lose 4 players to the NBA from last year's squad, after all. The two returning starters (Chris Carawell and Shane Battier) did their part but there's lots of retooling that needs to go on in Durham this season. Freshman point guard Jason Williams was fine, but the big problem for Duke was the collapse of their interior defense.
Stanford's interior defense, on the other hand, was excellent and is what led them to the COACHES V CANCER CLASSIC title last week. They displayed lots of nice point-blank low-post scoring (too much, in fact) and some promising 'tweener scoring from freshman Casey Jacobsen and senior David Moseley. Mark Madsen will miss 4-6 weeks with a hamstring pull, but that might not be all bad. The youngsters need as much playing time together as they can get and if this forces them to look further outside for scoring, then so much the better. In particular, the high-low offense they were running would be a lot more effective with Jacobsen out top rather than either of the Collins twins since he can actually hit that foul-line jump shot.
Don't read too much into Syracuse's win in the NABC CLASSIC. They blew away two teams at home. That's the least we should have expected out of them (but, granted, it's an improvement on last year).
The season gets underway in earnest this week with nearly everyone in action. The PRESEASON NIT starts up on Tuesday with four Top-25 teams involved (Ohio State, Arizona, Kentucky, Utah) plus the likes of Penn, Maryland, New Mexico State and Siena. At some point this season, Kentucky will get knocked off the pedestal of elite-team status. It may come as early as Wednesday at the hands of Penn, the new standard-bearer for the Ivy League. (Remember, they threw a scare into Florida in last year's NCAA first round.) Scoonie Penn and Michael Redd are the best two players on any team in that field, though, so look for the Buckeyes to rule in Madison Square Garden next week.
Ed Cota and Terence Newby have been reinstated at UNC.
The winner of the TOP OF THE WORLD CLASSIC will earn a Top-25 ranking just for taking an 8-team preseason tournament with middle range talent. St. John's should have no trouble in the CoSIDA CLASSIC.
The 'Cats' Meow
Arizona's freshman backcourt of Jason Gardner and Gilbert Arenas looked like they've been teammates for years. These Wildcats easily separated themselves from two opponents at home (including a decent New Mexico State squad). Arizona didn't show that kind of ability all of last season. They've turned in the best performance of the season so far. Take the 'Cats from Tucson over the ones from Lexington in the PRESEASON NIT final.
Meanwhile, the Bearcats of Cincinnati got scoring from their new backcourt of Kenny Satterfield and DeMarr Johnson. We already know the frontcourt is formidable. With an easier time on offense this time around, there's more reason to expect their postseason showing to match their regular season ranking.
More indications last week that this season won't be a mere continuation of last year: last year's Final Four team, Ohio State couldn't even win at home against upstart Notre Dame. All that dribbling in the backcourt from Scoonie Penn and Michael Redd made them look like a pickup team. The Fighting Irish are a solid squad, but mostly that game was about the Buckeyes' not being tight. St. John's, a Regional Finalist last year, is in a similar situation as Duke. Last year's secondary stars now must control the game on their own. But they don't have an influx of new talent that the Blue Devils do to help share the burden. So far things haven't come as easily as they might have hoped.
Give credit to Oklahoma for beating three teams decisively to take the TOP OF THE WORLD CLASSIC.
It's the biggest week of the season coming up with loads of Thanksgiving tournaments on tap:
Conference Calls
Texas made a major statement winning the PUERTO RICO SHOOTOUT with wins over DePaul and then Michigan State. Center Chris Mihm was a dominant force in both games, but the Longhorns had all five starters score in double-figures against the Spartans, so he's no one-man team. Kansas became the third Big 12 team to win a preseason 8-team tournament as the Jayhawks rolled to the GREAT ALASKA SHOOTOUT title. (Oklahoma won the TOP OF THE WORLD CLASSIC last week; and Oklahoma State has come out of the blocks fast as well. Last season, all four of these teams were inconsistent due to youth, but now they've all matured.)
Conference USA took two tournament titles this past week also: Cincinnati's NBA lineup crushed the competition in the BIG ISLAND INVITATIONAL while Southern Mississippi came through in the HOOP & QUILL CLASSIC. Likewise, the SEC came home with two tourney trophies (but it was from two teams that aren't considered the conference elite): Mississippi took the SOCON TOURNAMENT title; and LSU won it all in the HAWAII PACIFIC TOURNAMENT.
There may be hope yet at North Carolina. Freshman guard Joseph Forte immediately assumed the role as designated scorer. While it's great that they have a framework for the offense this season, it doesn't mean all their problems are solved. Jason Capel is no factor so far and Kris Lang can't quite be the power forward they need. But what they've got already was good enough to take the MAUI CLASSIC title.
Two conferences that didn't double up last week go head-to-head this week from top to bottom in the ACC-BIG 10 CHALLENGE. There are a couple of good matchups: Duke@Illinois on Tuesday, and Michigan State@UNC on Wednesday.
Every time I see Arizona, I'm more impressed. Their starting five comes as close to matching the prototype at each spot as we've seen in a while, and what versatility that gives them. Against Kentucky in the PRESEASON NIT final, power forward Michael Wright couldn't get his game going against Kentucky's tall front line. No matter. 7' Loren Woods asserted his presence on both ends, Richard Jefferson scored from the wing, and the backcourt of Gilbert Arenas and Jason Gardner applied pressure on the ball and forced turnovers that got the transition game going. That kind of versatility is hard to beat. You can't take away everything from a team.
Don't miss Arizona's visit to Texas on Saturday. Two great centers (Mihm v Woods), two great power forwards (Wright v Muoneke) and two teams with well balanced starting fives.
Stanford's frontline dominated Auburn (putting Mamadou N'Diaye in foul trouble early and holding Chris Porter to 9 points overall) in the JOHN WOODEN CLASSIC. Scott Pohlman tried to carry the Tigers on his back, but he couldn't do it alone. Auburn's good, but it doesn't yet have a track record of elite wins.
Saturday's a full plate: Cincinnati and Gonzaga square off in the one-day ROCK-N-ROLL SHOOTOUT in Cleveland; Illinois and Maryland meet in the first round of the BB&T CLASSIC in Washington, DC; meanwhile, Temple (at Wake Forest) and DePaul (at Duke) get a quick chance to regroup from early setbacks.
Mo Better Spartans
Oh, those Wildcats. Arizona is fast turning becoming a team that ranks among my all-time favorites. Their athleticism getting out on the break is fun to watch. (Even 7' Loren Woods can run.) Richard Jefferson won't have the stats to show it, but he may be a better all around player than MoPete. (He'll likely get his chance to prove it on Saturday as they'll probably be matched up head-to-head.) The slightest weakness is in their halfcourt offense. They're so individually talented that there's a bit too much of an urge to take their man individually off the dribble. (But this is a minor complaint.) Texas was able to manage a working margin at home against them as long as they could keep center Chris Mihm on the floor. UT played well, but in the waning moments, Jefferson came up big, scoring 8 straight points for UofA when the game was on the line.
Don't be fooled by the 5-point margin of the final score. Wake Forest was up 48-22 at the half at home against Temple. Yes, the Owls are still without Pepe Sanchez, but they still have a very talented starting five. The Demon Deacons have plenty of young talent and the return of Niki Arinze gives them a force in the frontcourt to go along with Robert O'Kelley in the backcourt. Unlike Florida, they rolled over a name opponent the same way they did against scrubs. We'll find out this week if Kansas and UCLA can pass the same test. Meanwhile, Tennessee, Syracuse and Oklahoma State should roll through another week of untested blowouts. The rankings of those three teams are on soft ground.
No rest for the weary: Michigan State takes on Kansas in the GREAT EIGHT on Tuesday and then tries to pull off another big road win at Arizona on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Wildcats get to match fast breaks with Connecticut in their own GREAT EIGHT pairing on Tuesday before hosting the Spartans. The Wednesday GREAT EIGHT games aren't too shabby, either: Cincinnati-North Carolina and Gonzaga-Temple. The Zags follow that up with a visit to UCLA on Saturday.
If Maryland wins their rematch at home against Kentucky on Saturday, it may finally be enough for me to rank them. (I was ready to do so this week after they squeaked past Illinois in the BB&T CLASSIC last week, but then they blew it by losing to George Washington in the final.) Auburn hasn't shown the same ability to separate from also-ran opponents so far this year. They can establish some '99/'00 credentials with a win over Penn in the HARDWOOD CLASSIC on Saturday. (Either that, or the Quakers will make their mark on the season that's going to come sooner or later.)
Volume IV, Number 6 - Dec 13 - [] Top 25 Ballot
Forte Four
Stanford barely got past Georgia Tech in the SCOTTISH RITE CLASSIC, but a closer look doesn't make that performance seem so bad. The Yellow Jackets feature two 7-footers in Jason Collier and Alvin Jones. That directly blunts the Cardinal's strength along the baseline. But the box score shows that their leading scorers were 'tweeners Casey Jacobsen and David Moseley. That's exactly what you'd want to see. If Jacobsen can make this his team (even though he's a freshman bench player at this point) before Mark Madsen returns from his injury, so much the better.
Duke's 0-2 start doesn't look so bad at this point considering both losses were to teams in the Top 5 (UConn and Stanford).
After looking horribly undisciplined firing away 3's against Temple in the GREAT EIGHT, Gonzaga found some solace in bursting UCLA's bubble in Pauley Pavilion.
Things are pretty slow this week in terms of Top-25 matchups. (The Christmas tournaments are still one more week away.) Kansas can really only hurt their reputation if they don't sweep Ohio State at home and Illinois on the road. DePaul gets the chance to put themselves into the national conversation with a home game against St. John's and then a road game at UCLA. Miami (FL) has a big opportunity to prove last season was no one-year fluke when they host North Carolina in the ORANGE BOWL CLASSIC.
Of Muscle Boys And Smoothies
Meanwhile North Carolina has resorted to a lineup that amounts to two guards (Ed Cota and Max Owens), two 'tweeners (Jason Capel and Joseph Forte) and a center (Brendan Haywood). It's a work in progress, but there's promise of something great if it pans out. Against Miami (FL) in the ORANGE BOWL CLASSIC, the points came a bit easier for the Tar Heels on offense with all of that ball-handling on the floor at the same time. But whenever UNC pulled away, they couldn't stop the Hurricanes from coming back because that same lineup couldn't keep Miami off the offensive boards. Individually, it will probably make better players out of Capel and Forte, even if it doesn't always translate into wins. (Capel might eventually develop into the same type of player Grant Hill was at Duke before he's done ... but that's a long way off.)
Of course, when Cincinnati met North Carolina in the GREAT EIGHT the previous week, it was the Muscle Boys triumphing over the Smoothies. Is it easier for physical players to develop finesse, or for soft players to toughen up? It probably depends on the individual, but I'd probably say the former is more difficult than the latter. Kenyon Martin has improved his skill level quite a bit in the off-season and is now much more than just a defensive banger. Can Capel put himself through a transition of his own inside the regular season? The Bearcats benefitted from new blood that came into the picture with the missing elements they needed. The Tar Heels didn't, so they'll have to change on their own. Expect Cincinnati to take out the frustrations of their first loss come Wednesday on host Oklahoma (a team of Smoothies themselves). It's not quite as sure a thing that Carolina will be able to handle the physical banging of all those picks that Indiana will throw at them in the JIMMY V CLASSIC on Tuesday.
Illinois' win over Kansas puts them over the psychological hump of not having beaten a Top-25 team before now. Look for them to continue to get better now that they have tangible proof of their talent. Ohio State is living off of last year's rep, and both Indiana and Purdue have overachieved in the early going. The path is clear for the Illini to step in as the main contenders to Michigan State for the Big 10 title.
Except for one-off matchups, we are pretty much through having the Big Boys face off against each other in holiday tournaments. The Christmas tournaments, by and large, are nowhere near as loaded as the Thanksgiving tournaments were. Auburn needs to re-establish its reputation as an elite team in the SAN JUAN SHOOTOUT. (A convincing win over Miami (FL) in the final would help.) Tennessee shouldn't let anyone in the PUERTO RICO SHOOTOUT come within 15 points of them. And it should be even easier for UCLA in the PEARL HARBOR CLASSIC.
Texas needs to show that their humbling loss at Wisconsin was a fluke. A road win at Utah would put them back in the elite class they've shown signs of so far. Princeton has righted the ship with the return of Mason Rocca, but don't expect them to come within 20 points of Kansas on the road. Kentucky may think they've turned things around after drubbing Louisville, but when Michigan State comes to town, the doubts will return.
Tryin' To Get Over
The Smoothie lineup at North Carolina didn't look so good against Indiana in the JIMMY V CLASSIC (and it looked even worse later in the week in their 17-point loss at Louisville). Against IU, Brendan Haywood was hurting the Hoosiers at the very start, but then he got into foul trouble. With him unable to be a force defensively in the paint late in the game, the likes of freshman forward Jeffrey Newton actually scored key baskets in the closing minutes. A.J. Guyton had a monster first half with 20 points, but cooled down a bit in the second half. Jason Capel was unable to rise to the occasion and be both physical and fluid. He was neither. Forget the close grudge loss to Indiana State in the INDIANA CLASSIC. The Hoosiers have now beaten Temple, Kentucky and North Carolina in neutral site or double-home crowd games. They're legit.
Hanno Mottola is back with Utah, and Texas had no answer for him. The Utes may have the most disciplined halfcourt offense in the country right now. It's not flashy, but their clean execution counts tons, especially late in a ballgame.
Kentucky responded to losing their ranking with a 30-point rout of Louisville last week and a 2-point win over Michigan State this week. Don't put full faith in their resurgence just yet, though. Rupp Arena had as much to do with those victories as the team itself. Wait for a convincing win on the road against a quality opponent before pronouncing the Wildcats' return to full health.
Tulsa routed Tennessee by 20 points in the final of the PUERTO RICO CLASSIC, but Volunteer point guard Tony Harris hurt himself early in the game and UT was essentially playing without its head for the bulk of that game. Still, the Golden Hurricane beat up their other two opponents in the tournament just as badly and their 11-1 record (including a 1-point road loss) ain't too shabby. They're at least a co-favorite with Fresno State for the (what's left of the) WAC crown at this point.
Several tournaments and one-day special events this week, but they're mostly in the category of stumbling blocks for the major teams rather than any potential Clashes of the Titans. The RAINBOW CLASSIC (Monday-Thursday) has the potential of a Wake Forest-Gonzaga final. That'd be a very watchable up-and-down affair. (I'll take the Demon Deacons due to their deeper bench.) Oklahoma State and LSU get to see which one of them is for real in their meeting in the SUGAR BOWL CLASSIC on Thursday . (Hint: it's OSU.)
Among the plain old untitled matchups, Temple will try to see if they can pass the test that Texas couldn't when they travel to Wisconsin on Wednesday. (The Owls'll win, but it'll be an ugly, defensive game.) Purdue and UCLA are both struggling, so a win won't mean as much as it might have either way it goes down. Don't expect Princeton to do any better at Xavier this year than they did last year in the NIT. DePaul and Memphis get Conference USA play underway early on Tuesday. (Without their regular point guard, the Blue Demons will have a tough time.)
The SEC has 5 ranked teams at the moment, but depth below the powerhouses is thin. Expect Florida to hold off Kentucky and Tennessee in East Division, but Auburn will have its hands full fending off upstart LSU in the West.
Once again, the most difficult conference schedule will be in the Big 10. This year's elite teams aren't up to the standard set last year (except for Michigan State at full strength), but there's more depth here than in any other conference. Look for the Spartans to edge out Illinois and Indiana at the top, but expect lots of "upsets" along the way.
The Pac-10 has the best two teams (Arizona and Stanford) in any one conference, but there's a considerable drop-off below them. The Wildcats' versatility makes them less vulnerable to upset than the Cardinal.
The Big 12 race may be the most hotly contested. Any of the top 4 teams (Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma) has a legitimate shot at the title. The Jayhawks have a big advantage, though, only facing the other elite teams 3 times while the others have to face off 5 times against the top contenders. Don't expect the regular season winner to take the conference tournament as well.
There's no huge talent gap among the top 4 teams in the ACC this year (Duke, Maryland, North Carolina and Wake Forest). That means the regular season will come down to execution (please read "Duke").
UConn will have no trouble holding off Syracuse in the Big East. Ditto for Cincinnati over DePaul in Conference USA. The promise that the Atlantic 10 showed a few years back of becoming an elite conference has been reneged. It's still Temple and Xavier and a bunch of also-rans. The Mountain West teams may have felt too good for the rest of the WAC, but Utah is too good for this new conference as well. (By the way, there's no automatic bid, so a team like UNLV or New Mexico may have to win both the regular season and the tournament and beat the Utes to boot to make it into the NCAAs.) In the Ivies, both Princeton and Penn have struggled through the preseason. (The Tigers have greater potential, but it might not come soon enough.)
The monster game this week is Saturday's matchup with Arizona visiting Stanford. The Wildcats have shown vulnerability in the past couple of weeks, so even if they win this one, don't expect them to run the table in the Pac-10 (and they might very well get caught looking past California on Thursday). Maryland must come through at home against Duke on Sunday to have a shot at the ACC title. Illinois has a chance to take control early in the Big 10 race with some big home games the first two weeks. The key to winning the regular season may well be which team, if any, can win at Wisconsin.
Do not miss Tennessee at LSU on Saturday. There'll be plenty of athletic highlights to go around on both sides and both teams have something prove by winning.
Volume IV, Number 10 - Jan 10 - [] Top 25 Ballot
What's The Point?
Arizona likely salted away the Pac-10 title this week with their road win at (previously undefeated) Stanford. And they did it without Richard Jefferson (who hurt his foot right at the beginning of the game). Instead, it was Loren Woods who came up big and Jason Gardner, who's offensive spurt to start the second half took control of the game for the Wildcats. Equally as important was Gilbert Arenas' defensive job on Casey Jacobsen. Even though he's a freshman, it's Jacobsen who makes the difference between the Cardinal's being a good team and a great one. He was no factor (2-for-9, 5 points) and Stanford's offense didn't flow. Lute Olson's 600th career win puts his team back in the top spot in the rankings. You've gotta like a team where you could argue that right now Option No. 4 on offense is Michael Wright. Arizona only has two tough road games left in conference play (after also beating Cal earlier in the week): at Oregon and at UCLA. Meanwhile, Stanford is down a game in the standings and has all four of its tough road games yet to come.
Two of the big name point guards returned to action this week. Mateen Cleaves has returned to Michigan State (and so has their fast break). Pepe Sanchez is back at Temple and they scored their highest point total of the season (88) in his first game. It seems overused to say it, but point guards are almost the entire story in college basketball. But you need to have the right balance. The challenge for Cleaves will be to let go of the ball and allow Charlie Bell to play-make some of the time and to allow Morris Peterson to score off the dribble instead of just off the break. Cleaves can dominate the ball too much and the rest of the Spartans wind up standing around watching what he'll do next. With Sanchez, a team of big-time high school scorers needs to have the ball taken out of their hands so that they'll actually move without it and get easier baskets off of his assists. Then you've got a guy like Doug Gottlieb at Oklahoma State who's all pass and no shot. When they lost at LSU, the Tigers dared him to shoot so drastically that coach Eddie Sutton was forced to take the leading assist man in the nation out of the game so they'd have a better chance to score on offense. Guys like Ed Cota at North Carolina and Jason Gardner at Arizona have it down just about perfectly. They spend most of the game looking to set up their teammates, but when it gets down to winning time, they'll take the ball on their own and score big baskets when necessary. Cota was great in the late-going last week against NC State. Khalid El-Amin is having to do too much of the scoring at Connecticut. He had 34 points in the home loss to Notre Dame. That's not a good thing for that team. The magical chemistry that Scoonie Penn and Michael Redd had last year for Ohio State now just looks like two ball-hogs this year. Tony Harris just may be starting to get the right mix of pass/shoot down now at Tennessee.
After Illinois failed this year's litmus test in the Big 10 (i.e, they lost on the road at Wisconsin), Indiana has the next opportunity to seize control of the conference race if they can catch Michigan State on the road while the Spartans are still adjusting to the return of Mateen Cleaves.
Texas gets one last chance to make their case for being a national elite team when they go to Connecticut on Monday. Hey, if Notre Dame can win in Storrs, why can't the Longhorns? And speaking of the Irish, if they can win one big conference road game, why not make it a double and burst the bubble at undefeated Syracuse as well? Both of these games are very winable by the visiting team if they can just believe they belong.
LSU didn't quite believe enough in their home loss to Tennessee. (Or can it be that the Vols are finally going to be serious contenders this time around?) The Tigers have two big road games this week and if they lose both (which could easily happen), it may take until the conference tournament for them to regather the momentum from their undefeated start. In fact, LSU at Florida is one of the pivotal games of the season. If the Gators lose at home, all the preseason Top-10 hype is out the window and they could start to implode. Ditto for Auburn (who hosts resurgent Kentucky). Their 13-1 record looks nice, but this is nowhere near the same killer team they were last year (and they were only killers during the regular season last year, anyway).
Know Thy Enemy
Where did Vanderbilt come from all of a sudden? Their unremarkable preseason was highlighted by an overtime win at Notre Dame, but little else to recommend them. But they've hit the ground running to start out the SEC schedule at 3-1 against the likes of Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee and LSU (only losing at Rupp Arena in Lexington). Forward Dan Langhi isn't much to look at, but he's a player with a sweet stroke and the Commodores have a trio of very good perimeter players to complement him. If they can beat the Wildcats at home this weekend, Vandy just might stay ranked the rest of the way.
Maybe the most fun team to watch this year (besides Arizona at full strength) is St. John's. The Red Storm is severely undersized (with no regular taller than 6-7) and only play 6 players getting major minutes, but they can all handle the ball, shoot, pass and hustle. They found a way to win at Connecticut last week. Granted, UConn doesn't have blue-chip frontcourt players (but they were good enough to wreak havoc inside against Duke at the start of the season). SJU is now 4-0 atop the Big East along with still-undefeated Syracuse.
N.C. State is another blue-collar team worth rooting for. The glamour teams in the ACC don't have the overwhelming edge in talent that they usually do. So that means games this year are won on execution more than ever. The Wolfpack is off to a 3-1 start in conference play due mostly to a consistent defensive effort every game. Don't expect a win in Durham on Wednesday, but if they can survive the Duke game with their psyche intact, they could break through into Sweet 16 territory by year's end. (Meanwhile, the Blue Devils are about to set a league record for consecutive wins in conference.)
Texas could be halfway home to the Big 12 regular season title with a win at Oklahoma State on Wednesday night. (They've already won their first meeting with Oklahoma and they only face Kansas once in conference play, at home.) Ohio State can fully erase the memory of a subpar preseason, with a home win over Michigan State on Thursday. That would make the Buckeyes 4-1 in the Big 10 and squarely in the hunt for the league title.
Florida and Tennessee have the two most talented lineups in the SEC, so look for lots of showy plays when they meet Tuesday. (But with all the ball-handling on display, the St. John's@Ohio State game on Saturday might be even prettier to watch.)
Saturday has lots of games that feature higher-ranked conference leaders on the road against dangerous second-tier contenders: Arizona@UCLA (actually Thursday), Stanford@California, Duke@Wake Forest, Indiana@Purdue and Kentucky@Vanderbilt. Should be a great day to check in on college hoops.
The Heart Of The Matter
Duke and N.C. State had nearly as good a game themselves. The Wolfpack didn't succumb to the intimidation factor of playing in Cameron Indoor Stadium and nearly stopped the Blue Devils' ACC and home win streaks. Give credit to Duke, once again, for the poise they exhibit in the clutch and surviving to win in OT, but don't hold anything against N.C. State for coming up short.
Kentucky and Vanderbilt had a heart-stopper of their own when the Wildcats came away with an OT win in Nashville (and a season sweep of the Commodores as well). UK Center Jamaal Magloire (23p,15r) almost looked like he might not get cut from an NBA roster next year. Almost. Keep an eye on Vandy (who play at Florida on Saturday) to see if the close loss will damage their confidence. They are legit, but sometimes judging your own self-worth is the hardest thing.
Ohio State won "ugly" at home against Michigan State (stopping the Spartans' two-year Big 10 winning streak). Yet they might have been even more impressive, though, in their out-of-conference win on the road at St. John's. That game was a battle of styles with the center-less Red Storm seemingly hustling their way past all of the blocked shots and offensive rebounds the Buckeyes threw at them, only to have Ohio State score the last 11 points of the game to come away with a 1-point win. The best thing about the Buckeyes' performance was the major contributions of people other than their ballhog backcourt of Scoonie Penn and Michael Redd. Ken Johnson was huge underneath and George Reese was solid. (If they win on Saturday at home against Purdue, OSU should be back in the Top 10 next week.)
Syracuse puts their undefeated record on the line against a Top-10 opponent for the first time this season when Connecticut comes calling Monday night. UConn has already shown that it's beatable, though, and the Orangemen will have lots of motivation to "prove their worth". Expect a home win in the Carrier Dome, but don't read more into it than necessary. Elsewhere, Tennessee can also break into the Top 10 with a solid home win over Auburn.
Two road wins (at Wisconsin and at Ohio State) are too much to expect from Purdue this week, but a split wouldn't be bad at all. By contrast, Florida needs no less than a sweep (at DePaul and at home against Vanderbilt) if they want to begin to live up to their individual talent.
Conference Checkups
Elsewhere, 3 SEC teams flexed their muscles with impressive blowouts. In each case, payback from a previous loss provided the added motivation for the routs. Tennessee avenged last year's 28-point road loss to Auburn with a 105-76 blitzing at home. The best thing about the game was the way the Volunteers were able to take advantage and break open what was a tight game when the Tiger's Chris Porter sat down with 3 fouls in the first half and turn it into a laugher before he could get back into the game. (The worst thing about the game was UT guard Tony Harris' going back into a 20-point blowout in the second half after he'd injured his knee, presumably just to help run up the score.) Florida reversed their 10-point road loss to Vanderbilt earlier this year with an 89-63 runaway victory at home. Here's hoping the Gators' 'tweener Mike Miller comes to play every night like he has recently. UF is still playing all-star-team basketball, but they need to funnel as much of their offensive sets through Miller in order to have a consistent attack they can rely on in clutch situations. Having a different star every night isn't a good thing. LSU returned the favor from last year's road loss to Arizona with an 86-60 shellacking of the tumbling Wildcats. Remember that the SEC had a strong showing during the preseason tournament schedule with 3 teams (Auburn, LSU and Mississippi) winning 8-team tournaments. The teams have managed to stay strong inside conference play.
Things are still going strong in the Big 12 (which also, remember, had 3 teams win 8-team tournaments in the preseason in Texas, Kansas and Oklahoma), although Kansas appears to be heading into a slide. Oklahoma State is firing on all cylinders and upstarts Iowa State (with its weekend home win over the Jayhawks) and even Missouri (which routed KU the previous week) are claiming a place alongside the other contenders. Like I said early on about this conference, the unbalanced schedule will do more to determine the regular season champ in this league as much as anything; and don't expect the regular season champ to double as tournament champ, either.
By contrast (and much like last year), the Big 10 teams (none of which won a major preseason tournament) seem to be cannibalizing themselves. Michigan State is getting tighter, Ohio State continues to come on, and Indiana is holding firm; but Illinois has collapsed, Wisconsin is only a threat to win at home, and Purdue is not able to put teams away.
The injury to Richard Jefferson has Arizona falling back to the rest of the Pac-10 (witness their loss the previous week to decent-but-not-great USC). Stanford continues to hammer along every night out with its outstanding interior defense. Oregon has continued its consistently good play into the conference season and has moved up in the Wildcats' wake. (The Ducks have a huge opportunity to catch UofA while it's still wounded when they travel to Tucson on Thursday.)
The ACC is in disarray. Virginia is now in second place behind front-running Duke. The Blue Devils have set the conference record for consecutive league victories, beating the old mark held by the Tom Burleson-David Thompson-Kenny Carr era N.C. State teams. (But do you think Duke 1998-2000 was a better team than N.C. State 1973-75? I don't.) The current streak says more about how bad the rest of the league is moreso than how good Duke is.
Don't expect slumping St. John's to pull off the upset in the Carrier Dome against Syracuse on Monday. Stanford is playing too well to stumble at either UCLA or USC this week (and they only have one more tough road game left after that in conference -- at Arizona). Now that it's upon us, a lot of the lustre has come off of Saturday's anticipated rematch between Michigan State and Connecticut. The Huskies aren't even the best team in their own league, much less being able to make a claim as the best team in the nation. (Meanwhile, MSU+ -- i.e., plus Mateen Cleaves -- is getting back to Final Four form.) Tennessee and Kentucky clash in Rupp Arena on Tuesday. Based on their recent form, there's no reason not to think the Vols can't keep on rolling past the 'Cats in Lexington. On a neutral court, the inside strength of Texas should be too much for Oklahoma. On the road in Norman on Monday night, though, the home atmosphere may be enough to push the Sooners to victory.
At The Far Turn
The first half of the Michigan State-Connecticut game -- which ended 46-17 -- was the finest quality hoop we've seen on display this season. (Yes, Syracuse had a similar result against the Huskies earlier, but the style of play wasn't as good.) Before the injury to Mateen Cleaves just before this season started, the Spartans were going to be the prohibitive pick as the preseason No. 1 team in the country with the most solid nucleus returning from among last year's Final Four teams. He is now all the way back in form with the team and everything is in sync. What's more, because they had to learn to play without him for the first two months of the season, the rest of the team is much stronger (and more self-reliant) than they would have been otherwise. So, at this point, MSU is even better off than had the injury not occurred. Don't be fooled by the 5 losses when comparing this team to the other Top-5 juggernauts. Granted, Syracuse still hasn't lost; Cincinnati is just 2 points shy of still being undefeated; Stanford is only off by 3 points, and Duke is riding an 18-game winning streak since dropping the opening 2 games of the season; but none of those teams has two players as individually talented as Cleaves and Morris Peterson. (And this kid Jason Richardson is as physically gifted as anybody in the country. He's in the same no-pressure position that Michael Jordan was in his freshman year in North Carolina's '82 title run. Don't be surprised if he comes up big "out of nowhere" somewhere down the line.)
The emergence of George Reese as a consistent force in the frontcourt bodes very well for Ohio State. (He just had a career-high 25 points against Michigan.) A more balanced attack makes still-the-nation's-best backcourt of Scoonie Penn and Michael Redd even more dangerous. They wouldn't lose a rematch of any of their 3 losses (to Notre Dame, Kansas and Illinois). Mark your calendars for their February 15th visit to East Lansing when they meet Michigan State for the second time. Both teams are better now than in the earlier 78-67 Buckeye win in Columbus.
Since falling to 4-4, Kentucky has since gone 13-1 and has returned to the Top 10. It's been the consistent play of Jamaal Magloire in the post that has made all the difference. Surprisingly, the better play has come inside the tough SEC. (But, Wildcat beware: UK has two tough road games scheduled this week.)
Nothing has been proven as of yet in the Big 12. All of the contenders have held serve by winning their elite matchups at home. (So the relative rankings of those teams is mostly a subjective opinion of their style of play.) Iowa State came the closest to breaking through, losing in double-overtime at Oklahoma. Missouri has home games this week against Iowa State and Texas. Oklahoma State hosts Kansas and then travels to rival Oklahoma.
A huge week is on tap in the SEC: LSU has two big home games against Auburn and Kentucky; Florida is at home against Kentucky and on the road at Tennessee; that means the East Division-leading UK Wildcats have two big road tests up this week. (Only Vandy gets off easy with no elite confrontations.)
Michigan State is showing such good form now that it's not unreasonable to expect a sweep of their upcoming road games at Purdue and Wisconsin. By contrast, if Maryland wins either road game at Duke or Temple, it'll be quite a coup. Gonzaga came back to win at home last week to stop Pepperdine's bid to take over control of the WCC. Now they'll have to pull off a road win in the rematch this week in order to cement their hold on the league lead. Dayton is knocking on the door of national consideration, but the Atlantic 10 is so weak this year that anything less than double-digit victories are suspect.
Taking Control
Ordinarily, top billing for the week past would have gone to Maryland for stopping Duke's home (45), conference (31) and season (18) win streaks in their thrilling win in Cameron Indoor Stadium. Lonny Baxter's inside scoring has made them a more balanced threat offensively. But the Terps lost on the road after that at Temple, taking some of the steam out of the sails in the urge to talk them up. The other big win last week was Seton Hall's handing Syracuse its first loss of the season. But then the Orangemen followed that up with another loss (at Louisville) and a weak performance barely beating UCLA while the Pirates barely beat Rutgers on the road before beating back Boston College. (Instead, downgrade both the ACC and Big East and take some of the "surprise" out of those "shocking" in-conference upsets in those two leagues.)
In true "mudder" fashion, Purdue put a stop (temporarily) to Michigan State's runaway train. The Spartans are mighty impressive when they roll, but this game showed the same problem from last year: in the late-going, Mateen Cleaves' penchant for dribbling the ball for 25 seconds before making anything happen came back to haunt them on some big possessions. Same as it ever was. Meanwhile, LSU did what it was supposed to in beating both Auburn and Kentucky handily at home. Still wish they had a point guard as good as their front line.
Be wary of teams whose reputation is essentially based on one "key" win: Tulsa (over Tennessee), Utah (over Texas), and Iowa State (over Kansas).
Temple used the energy from their home crowd to surge past Maryland in a big game (on paper, anyway). The Terrapins' fullcourt pressure was a tough matchup for the Owls, but they came through. This week, expect them to get past decent-but-not-great Dayton on the road, but cover your eyes when they travel to top-ranked Cincinnati on Sunday. As they showed in their destruction of DePaul, the Bearcats are very good when they can maintain their focus.
Tuesday's Big 10 showdown between Michigan State and Ohio State has slightly lower national implications with both teams losing last week. But it's still a battle for first place in a top conference. (The Buckeyes get to travel to Indiana on Saturday as a chaser.)
It's probably an exaggeration to say that they're in a "must win" situation yet, but if Connecticut manages to drop both its games this week (at Seton Hall and at home against Miami), then the defending national champions might start looking over their shoulders. As is, they're in fifth place in the balanced-but-low-rated Big East. This league won't get 6 teams into the NCAAs, so conference standings will be important and the Huskies are using up their margin for error.
Both Vanderbilt and Kansas have fallen out of the rankings and they each need two home wins this week against tough opponents (Auburn and Tennessee, and Iowa State and Oklahoma, respectively) in order to stop the bleeding. We're into that phase now where the NCAA Selection Committee pays special attention to your record in your final 10 games of the season. Both of these teams are in, but their seeding is dropping fast.
The perennial Ivy League showdown between Penn and Princeton is likely the Tigers' last chance at getting to postseason play this year. They already trail the Quakers by a game in the standings and must win at home on Tuesday to stay in the race for the automatic NCAA bid. They haven't played well enough otherwise to even rate a NIT bid this year.
Set Another Place At The Table
Temple posted a monster road win at Cincinnati on Sunday. Don't be fooled by the Owls' 20-4 record. Point guard Pepe Sanchez missed 8 games and they only went 5-3 without him. They're 15-1 with Sanchez at the point (and the only loss was by 1 point at St. Bonaventure). At full strength, this is a Top 10 team capable of making the Final Four. Sanchez provides the perfect platform to allow scorers Lynn Greer and Mark Karcher to get off -- which both of them did against the Bearcats. The game turned when defensive stopper Pete Mickeal sat down with 4 fouls late and Karcher took over from there. It's the best win of the year by any team. And it's legit in that it came on the road in a hostile environment.
Michigan State wasn't derailed by last week's loss at Purdue and turned in a sparkling performance at home against Ohio State, paying back their earlier 11-point loss in equal fashion. Better still was that both Morris Peterson and Charlie Bell got off as well as Mateen Cleaves, who scored well and also gave it up when appropriate. But the Buckeyes rebounded nicely with a fine road win of their own at Indiana.
Here are the season's best road wins so far:
Stanford slips back into the top spot with a quiet 51-point rout of rival California. The Cardinal are playing as well as they can right now. Mark Madsen is dominating underneath (and Jarron Collins is still there as well) and both Casey Jacobsen and David Moseley are scoring well from the wings. Stanford is on pace to set an NCAA record for field goal percentage defense. About the only thing you might wish for would be consistent outside shooting from the guard spot. But they're so deep everywhere else, it might not matter. Granted, the Pac-10 is soft after the top two teams. So we won't know how good the 22-1 record is until the rematch with Arizona in two weeks.
St. John's continues to be most fun team to root for. They don't have enough height up front to dominate the boards, and they're only 6-deep in decent players. So every game is all about effort and execution. Great ball-handling, great passing and hustle. Erick Barkley had to be carried to the locker room at the end of the Syracuse game the other night because he was exhausted from dehydration. They won't make it deep into postseason play, so catch them as many times as you can during the rest of the regular season. They host collapsing Connecticut on Monday and then try to duplicate last year's classic game at Duke on Sunday. It's still up in the air how many teams the Big East will get into the NCAAs, so such intersectional games will be huge for the entire conference. A more important result, though, might come from Minnesota at Seton Hall. The Gophers (who are without Joel Przybilla for the rest of the season) are getting hammered of late inside the Big 10. If The Hall fails to do the same at home, it'll downgrade the entire Big East.
Iowa State, whose rep is based entirely on sweeping Kansas and Missouri, finally gets to play the best two teams in the Big 12 (Oklahoma State and Texas) this week. Both games are at home, though, so resist the urge to go sweet on the Cyclones if they pull off the sweep. Oklahoma State still has the best win in the league so far (at Oklahoma) and the Cowboys have two more chances to pull off big road wins this week (at Iowa State and then at Missouri). But, like I've been saying all year, in this conference, nothing has been proven because of the unbalanced scheduling. Reserve your judgment on the relative strength of these teams until after the Big 12 tournament.
Illinois got healthy feasting on the also-rans at the bottom of the Big 10 standings, winning 6 straight. Now it's time for a reality check this week when slumping Indiana comes to visit and then the Illini travel to Ohio State. After that, they'll have one tune-up week and then it's time to put up or shut up in the Big 10 tournament. Bob Knight may regret declaring that Ohio State was the best team that Indiana has faced this year: Michigan State comes to town on Saturday on a roll.
On Thursday, both Temple and Tulsa get the chance to pay back their only in-conference losses this season when St. Bonaventure and Fresno State (featuring the nation's leading scorer, Courtney Alexander), respectively, come to visit.
Mercifully, Bobby Cremins had enough class to announce his resignation effective at the end of the season before it came down to his being fired. He (and Mark Price) put the Georgia Tech program on the map in the ACC and he was able to recruit a succession of super freshmen over the years (Price, Dennis Scott, Kenny Anderson, Stephon Marbury et al.) and let them have their way. But he was never a great game coach and the momentum of his tenure has long since passed. The Georgia Tech job is a great one. There's no need to settle for an up-and-comer (e.g., likely national Coach of the Year, Bill Self [Tulsa]) or to hand things over to a former star player (i.e., Price). (Houston went that route, but Clyde Drexler has yet to pay dividends.) The local papers are talking up Rick Majerus (Utah). Here's hoping.
You've Gotta Love Somebody
It's the last week of the regular season for the Big Boys. Iowa State can coast home now with the Big 12 regular season title. They dominated both Texas and Oklahoma State in showdowns at home last week. 6-8 Marcus Fizer is a power forward with 3-point range. Neither the Longhorns' Chris Mihm nor the Cowboys' Desmond Mason could match his output (35p and 29p, respectively). The Cyclones vault into the Top 10 (thanks, in large part, to fortuitous scheduling). They get credit for the head-to-head wins for now, but it remains to be seen if they can repeat them on neutral ground.
Ohio State continues to surge, but they'll likely end up in a 3-way tie at the top of the Big 10 standings, along with Michigan State, if Purdue can win at Indiana on Tuesday. Even with the unbalanced schedule, the Buckeyes were the only team with wins over each of the other elite conference powers.
Florida can win the SEC regular season outright if they can come away with a victory in Rupp Arena against disintegrating Kentucky. The Gators are the team that best fits the model of the '90s NCAA champions -- a deep "all-star" lineup that presses all game long and wins by attrition as much as talent -- but, then again, these are the '00s. Tennessee is still beating itself with lack of focus, expecting their superior athletic talent to win out no matter what. Auburn wasn't playing well before and now they've lost Chris Porter (temporarily?) due to suspension for allegedly talking to an agent, and have injuries to boot. Meanwhile, LSU has taken over the lead in the Western Division.
Syracuse still has work left to do before they wrap up the Big East title. The wonderfully selfless Red Storm of St. John's can still catch them with wins against Seton Hall and at Miami, while the Orangemen have to travel to Notre Dame and Connecticut to end the regular season. SJU's win at Duke basically demoted the ACC. (The Hall's 3-point home win over hapless Minnesota nullified any boost for the Big East.)
Cincinnati, Temple and Duke have long since wrapped up the regular season crowns in Conference USA, the Atlantic 10 and the ACC. The depth on those 3 leagues was mighty suspect this year.
We're going to have to wait another week before the Pac-10 rematch of Stanford and Arizona. In the meantime, the Wildcats are without 7' center Loren Woods for a few games with back trouble. Still, even without him, they held Arizona State's high-scoring Eddie House to 7 points on 3-for-15 shooting. But here's another league that's suspect after the top two teams. The early season wins by the Cardinal (over Duke, Auburn and Connecticut) and the Wildcats (over a Cleaves-less Michigan State, at Texas and over Kentucky) don't look like the same Top-10 triumphs they did at the time.
Several teams are stumbling towards the end of the season. There weren't even 25 teams playing rankable ball this week. (The Bottom Five of this week's Top 25 are completely suspect.)
It's tournament time in the lesser conferences around the land. We've had very few noises made from anyone from below, say, the Atlantic 10 this year. Pepperdine and Gonzaga have hovered just outside the rankings for much of the year. Any upsets to be made in the NCAAs coming up will be true Cinderella stories much more than usual. Ball State (from the MAC) routed Purdue and Indiana State (from the MVC) nipped Indiana back in December. Other than those two, though, the other giant-killers -- Wright State (over Michigan State), Samford (over St. John's) and Weber State (over Utah) -- were also-rans in their own conferences. Utah State rolled through the Big Sky, but didn't make a mark outside their league.
Once More (For The Last Time)
Meanwhile, Stanford had no such individual stand out to help stave off a home upset in overtime against spirited UCLA. Don't fret for the Cardinal, though. They looked as good as ever in their 19-4 run to start the game. The Bruins have lots of individual talent. Jerome Moiso and just-returned-from-suspension Jaron Rush were key in the win. Without a conference tournament to shock them, this loss is probably the next best thing for Stanford since they've been winning so handily for the past month and a half.
Oregon upset Arizona at home. The Ducks were likely already in the tournament without that win, but now they'll have a lesser element of surprise working for them with this win on their resume. Richard Jefferson is getting very limited minutes for the Wildcats again (returning from his ankle injury back in January), but he's nowhere near 100 percent. And Loren Woods is still sitting out with back trouble. At full strength, Arizona had the best starting five in the country. Now, without a conference tournament to help get them battle-tested, there's a big question as to how ready they'll be for the NCAA tournament.
Florida and Purdue just aren't the same teams on the road as they are at home. It continues to be a problem. Come tournament time, all of that borrowed emotion from their home crowd won't be there to pull them through. The collapse of Auburn is now complete without Chris Porter (but the truth is that, even with him, they never showed the killer form this year that they had last year in the regular season).
Now it's time for the major conference tournaments. One last chance to settle the score with your neighbors before heading off to fight in The Big One.
Nothing was settled during the regular season in the Big 12 other than seeding for the brackets. Other than Oklahoma St and Oklahoma trading squeaker road victories, all of the other elite match-ups were basically teams rolling to victory in front of their home folk. If even one of these teams had a great point guard, it'd be easier to figure. The best player in the league is Marcus Fizer, so Iowa State's as good a pick as any of the other top four.
In the SEC, Tennessee and Florida should get a third chance to lock horns in one semifinal. (The Vols won the first two, in OT and double-OT.) Meanwhile, Kentucky's home-away-from-home crowd should push them past better-on-paper LSU in the other semifinal. Then look for the Volunteer/Gator survivor to pay back their Rupp Arena loss to the Wildcats in the final.
Michigan State and Ohio State might have a tougher game (against each other) in the Big 10 final than they'll possibly get in the NCAA final. Both are in #1-seed form and are well poised for repeats of last year's trips to the Final Four.) Illinois might pull an upset in the conference tourney, but they're not likely to last through several games in the NCAAs. Both Purdue and Indiana have slowed down a bit at the worst possible time.
St. John's (Big East), Fresno State (WAC) and UNLV (Mountain West) should get just enough bounce from playing on their home floors to pull out "upsets" in their respective conference tournaments. Cincinnati (Conference USA), Duke (ACC) and Temple (Atlantic 10) would roll through their league tourneys no matter where they were held.
Pepperdine (over Gonzaga in the WCC), Utah State (over Long Beach State in the Big West) and Stanford (over less-than-full-strength Arizona) should each be able to hold off a strong challenge from solid second-place squads in their conference showdowns. Princeton at Penn is moot since the Quakers have already clinched the Ivy League title.
12 + 4 = 16
In the SEC, LSU was the only intact juggernaut even to survive until the semifinal round. Tennessee pulled its customary late-season self-destruction act. Kentucky got ambushed, and Florida was its usual leaderless self away from the confines of home. Meanwhile, out of nowhere, 14-14 Arkansas pulled off the quadruple play to take the conference title. They did it with guard play, hustle and took great advantage of their opponents' fear of failure. Great coaching job by Nolan Richardson to get his kids even to believe such a thing was possible.
In the Big 10 and the Big East, the top seeds (Ohio State and Syracuse, respectively) each bowed out in their quarterfinal appearances right out of the gate. At least, though, the legitimately best teams in the conference (Michigan State over Illinois, and St. John's over Connecticut, respectively) did come through to take the title over worthy finalists.
It's only in the Big 12 where results completely followed form. It was a case of good, better and best. Everyone played well, even quarterfinalists Kansas and Missouri routed their opponents in the first round, but Oklahoma State and Texas were very solid in making it to the semifinals, only to be beaten out by better-playing Iowa State and Oklahoma. The Cyclones looked ready to do some major damage in the NCAAs in their final game blowout of the Sooners. I thought they deserved a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament (ahead of Stanford). The top four teams in this league have hardly done anything wrong all season. If you take away the twelve losses they've handed each other in conference play, they're a combined 90-12 against the rest of the country. They've each got Sweet 16 written all over them and their consistent execution could push them through to the Elite 8 or even the Final Four. That conference, more than any other this year, deserves a representative in Indianapolis.
The injury to Kenyon Martin at Cincinnati (out for the season with a broken leg suffered in the quarterfinal game against St. Louis in the Conference USA tournament) throws everything up in the air as far as the NCAA tournament goes. The Bearcats were going to be one of the heavy favorites, but now it remains to be seen whether they can be a factor at all. It took Auburn several games at the end of the regular season to struggle with losing Chris Porter, but they were able to summon a mini-version of the Year After Rule in surging (past Florida) into the finals of the SEC tournament. Cincinnati can do the same. 6-9 guard DerMarr Johnson has the offensive firepower to be the go-to guy, but he's only a freshman. Pete Mickeal can step up and be the emotional leader otherwise and there's still plenty of physical talent and defensive capability for the Bearcats to make the Sweet 16 and beyond. (Their first round game, against UNC-Wilmington, shouldn't be a problem. But the question is, can they recoup under their new identity fast enough on a two-day turnaround to deal with the Tulsa/UNLV winner, who'll be hyped up for a name-brand upset.)
Once again, the ACC champion (this time it's Duke) gets the exceedingly unfair advantage of playing their first two rounds in their own backyard (this time in Winston-Salem). With the other possible candidates floundering in their conference tournaments, I don't actually have a problem with the Blue Devils getting a No. 1 seed, but they should have been shipped to Buffalo. Arizona didn't get to play in Tucson, and Tennessee didn't get to play in Nashville. Why give one team a special advantage no one else gets? It ain't right, but it happens every year. I didn't even think the ACC deserved more than two teams, either. North Carolina struggled through conference play and lost in their first game (quarterfinal) in the conference tournament and yet they're in. The only thing that could possibly have saved them was their strength of schedule and the fact that practically none of the teams from lesser conferences came through with major wins during the regular season. The same thing must have saved the likes of Utah and Louisville, who also couldn't make it past NIT-bound conferencemates in their respective tournaments.
As much as I've talked up St John's all year, they did not deserve a No. 2 seed. They won the Big East tournament -- playing in front of a home crowd at Madison Square Garden -- with two squeak wins and one solid victory over Connecticut in the final. Similarly, don't be too swayed by Fresno State's win in the WAC on their own home floor (but do pay attention to the fact that, of Tulsa's four losses this year, three of them were squeak losses to the Bulldogs). Likewise, UNLV was impressive winning the Mountain West conference tournament, but it was also on their own home floor.
Michigan State has the easiest route to the Final Four (as if they needed it). Four of the top eight seeds in the Midwest Regional are struggling, and they only have to play one of the three who have their act together (Iowa State, Maryland and resurgent UCLA). Creighton was about the only team from one of the lower conferences that looked like it had the physical talent and skill (outstanding 3-point shooting) to make any surprise noises.
LSU has the best pair of big men on any team in the country in Stromile Swift and Jabari Smith. Unfortunately, they lost to Arkansas in the SEC tournament due to their weak guard play. Still, they did beat Arizona at home by 26 points during the regular season, so don't overlook them (especially if Loren Woods isn't ready to play for the Wildcats). It probably won't come to pass, but an LSU-St John's West Regional Final would be the most entertaining contrast of styles in the entire tournament.
Stanford had better hope that Tennessee can race past Connecticut in the second round of the South Regional or else they'll be in trouble against their nemesis, the Huskies. (And Jim Calhoun found a second guard in the Big East final, freshman Tony Robertson, with whom he could pair Khalid El-Amin to scoot past the Cardinal in the backcourt the same way Arizona was able to do twice during the regular season.) I know they've come from nowhere, but don't be too surprised if Arkansas continues on its roll.
Duke has a tougher road to the Final Four than usual (apart from the home turf in the first two rounds). Playing the Florida-Illinois winner won't be easy. They'll only have an edge execution-wise, not talent-wise in either match-up. And in the East Regional Final, if they face Temple (in a rematch from the '99 NCAA tournament), the better-than-last-year Owls will have payback on their minds against the not-as-good-as-last-year Blue Devils with a chance of a lifetime to give John Chaney his first Final Four appearance on the line to boot.
Vanderbilt is probably the class of the NIT field. They were perhaps the only one of the elite SEC teams to turn in consistent, solid play in that conference tournament. Dan Langhi is a 6-11 player with 'tweener skills and a sweet 3-point stroke. It'd be quite a show in the Garden if he, Troy Murphy (Notre Dame) and Eddie House (Arizona State) all manage to make it to New York.
A Private Party Without Chaperons
It's too bad that injuries kept us from seeing two of the very elite teams during the regular season, Cincinnati and Arizona, in the tournament playing their best ball. Tulsa's pressure perimeter defense was too much of a challenge for UC's freshman backcourt without their Player of the Year teammate, Kenyon Martin. Similarly, Arizona without Loren Woods and with Richard Jefferson far from 100%, was nowhere near the intimidating team a #1 seed is supposed to be.
The afternoon games on Thursday were serious fun. Lots of near misses, but no actual upsets. St. Bonaventure didn't pull off the win, but you had to love Davis Capers' sinking 3 free throws with no time left to send the Kentucky game into double overtime after Tubby Smith tried to ice him twice. That's pressure. LSU tried to blow it, but they barely escaped against SE Missouri State. They did the same thing against Texas in the next round. Now that they've survived the first weekend, maybe they'll play a little less fearfully from here on out.
There's definitely something about Gonzaga that holds a lot of appeal for many people. And it's not just that they're an all-white team. That's part of it, but it's that they're an all-white team that's physical and can play. I mean, Utah is a bunch of goons by comparison. The Utes played Louisville during the regular season and were whipped by 20 points. The 'Zags gave as much as they got against the Cardinals and pulled away as U of L tired late in the game. Look at the game that Richie Frahm had for Gonzaga (31p,7r) and then look at the game Courtney Alexander had for Fresno State (11p, 5-for-19 shooting). Now tell me: which one is a finalist for the Wooden Award?
It's too bad that St. John's and Gonzaga had to meet in the second round. Those are probably the two teams that are easiest to root for even if you don't have a personal connection to those schools. There was no quit in either ballclub on Saturday. It was Richie Frahm in the first round and Matt Santangelo in the second round doing the damage. That's pretty good evidence to give the 'Zags the nod for the best backcourt in the country this year.
Clearly, the NCAA Seeding Committee misevaluated the West Coast Conference. Gonzaga was this close to making the Final Four last year and returned a solid nucleus from that squad this time around. Pepperdine was just as good as GU were inside their conference. Here in the tournament, the Waves destroyed Indiana and, make no mistake, Oklahoma State had to play spectacularly well in order to get past them into the Sweet 16. It was just a failure of the seeding process to properly place them with respect to the rest of the teams in the country.
Not having a conference tournament seemed to fool both the NCAA Seeding Committee as well as basketball pool participants when it came to the Pac-10 teams. I think what happens is that, since they don't have a conference tournament to provide a reality check on what they're like in neutral-site competition, you mistakenly think of them in their most dominating contexts (in the safe confines of home crowd support). By comparison, the other teams around the country have feet of clay once you see them look ordinary in their respective neutral-site conference tournaments.
Florida and Tennessee joined the rest of their SEC conferencemates in barely surviving the first round. UT can thank the relentless energy of bull-in-a-china-shop freshman Ron Slay. UF is lucky that Mike Miller has the size, the handle and the stroke that allowed him to just get off the game-winning shot against Butler in OT. LSU has sputtered for 36 minutes in both of its games only to close with spurt to win tight games twice now. On paper, they're the highest remaining seed alive in the West; to my eyes, though, it's Gonzaga that's the favorite to make the Final Four from this region now.
The Big 10 made a case for being the best conference in the country with Wisconsin's surprising win over Arizona and Purdue's mild upset of Oklahoma. The Big East also got 3 Sweet 16 teams, with 2 each for the Big 12 and ACC.
North Carolina got a very fortuitous draw. UNC's vulnerability is to quick teams that can run past their tall trees. Missouri just couldn't deal with 7' Brendan Haywood. Stanford usually has a huge size advantage in the paint, but not against UNC. It was point guard (Ed Cota) vs. 'tweeners (David Moseley and Casey Jacobsen). Go with the guard.
I bet Kansas wishes there was a neutral crowd watching when they made their late rally against Duke in Winston-Salem. Crowds backed underdogs when 5 out of the other 8 top seeds went down, but when Kansas raced ahead of Duke early and rallied against them late, the vocal fan support was overwhelmingly in favor of the Blue Devils.
I'll keep saying it: guards matter. Look at Seton Hall. Rimas Kaukenas slashed to the basket to send the Oregon game into OT and then Shaheen Holloway went coast-to-coast driving for the lay-up to win it. The 3-guard lineup scored over 70% of their points. Against Temple, with Holloway going down, backup guard Ty Shine poured in 26 points.
The NIT got what they wanted with Notre Dame making it through to New York. At least this year, they set the tournament brackets beforehand. In the past, they've waited to see who won round by round before deciding who would play next (and they still wait before deciding who gets to play at home). It's partly a function of money (who draws the biggest home crowd) and also a function of who they think will be the biggest draw for them in Madison Square Garden. So it's kind of a rigged event in that sense. Wake Forest has looked as solid as anybody in that draw. (Besides, "Vandy was scrawed!" as Othe Kendrick put it.)
Sunshine Blue
The Michigan State people were all sweating when Syracuse led by 14 early in the second half on Thursday. Maybe the Spartans make a run, but they certainly don't close out the game 17-0 without the overwhelming support of the home crowd in Auburn Hills. Once you get to the Regionals, though, you can't really complain about a team getting to play so close to home. The goal of keeping teams in their natural region means that somebody is going to get the chance to earn the right to play in front of the home folk in the later rounds. I don't have a problem with that. The problem was giving the likes of Duke that same advantage right out of the blocks.
Iowa State had surprisingly little trouble with UCLA. The Cyclone guards are exceptional off the dribble and that allowed them to dominate that game rather easily.
The elite matchups we've expected to see have been few and far between in this year's tournament. Duke-Florida was one game that lived up to the anticipation. With better personnel and getting to play the Blue Devils away from their own backyard, the Gators were able to finish the job that Kansas couldn't. In classic '90s Pitino style, Florida won by attrition. Their subs were at least as good as the starters; they got Duke in foul trouble early and tired them out late. It was exactly the right formula for defeating the Blue Devils. (It was an oddity that 6-deep Duke was the highest scoring team in the nation. It probably hurt them psychologically, thinking that running with the Gators was also in their own best interest. It wasn't.) Great game.
North Carolina started the Tennessee game with easy lobs down low to Brendan Haywood and looked to be on their way to an easy time. The Vols adjusted beautifully, though, double-teaming the post and their athleticism broke the game open midway through the second half. But they couldn't hold on -- they're athletes, not champions -- and let the Tar Heels back in the game. Bad shots and desperation took hold and it was UNC headed to the next round, not UT.
Seton Hall's guards kept them close one more time, but this time the endplay didn't work out in their favor. Tulsa continued to be The Little Engine That Could against Miami. Their defense-first style means they don't scare you on paper because no one player has stats that make you take notice. A team with perimeter quickness was North Carolina's worst nightmare, though, but the Tar Heels passed the test.
Although it wasn't quite a thing of beauty, the Michigan State-Iowa State Midwest Regional final was as tightly contested as you'd expect of "the unofficial national championship game". It's too bad it ended so sourly with Cyclone coach Larry Eustachy's getting ejected on a double technical in the closing seconds. Here was his chance of a lifetime slipping away before his eyes when Marcus Fizer fouled out and Eustachy just lost it. It remains to be seen if ISU will be back in the big picture. Eustachy didn't build that program. He inherited the remains of the program Tim Floyd put on the map and this year had as much to do with Fizer's own change of attitude to play the cards he was dealt (after Floyd's departure to the NBA to coach the Chicago Bulls) as Eustachy's coaching acumen. Michigan State has a lot of weapons. In this game, it was power forward Andre Hutson, who neutralized Fizer in the paint, that saved the day for the Spartans.
The ugly stepchildren, Wisconsin and Purdue, fought it out in the West Regional final for the right to attend the ball in Indianapolis. It's a great thing for the Big 10, which will have two national semifinalists, but I wouldn't say it's a great thing for college basketball. All that pushing and holding in the paint belongs on a football field, not a basketball court.
The UNC-Tulsa game was a triumph of the traditional over the trendy. Though not quite completely in the mold of the '90s all-star stable style, the Golden Hurricane are nonetheless a team that is so exaggeratedly defense-oriented that they didn't know how to play with poise and take a good shot down the stretch of that game. [Florida has the same problem, but with better individual personnel, they can get away with it (e.g., having Mike Miller drive the lane for a buzzer-beater to win the Butler game in Round 1).] As unfashionable as Carolina became this season, the parts were always there to form a cohesive whole. Ed Cota was still a solid point guard, Brendan Haywood was still 7', and freshman Joseph Forte was still a capable 'tweener.
Billy Donovan's "my bench is better than your bench" formula keeps on winning, and it's getting easier as Florida goes deeper into the tournament. Oklahoma State seemed too willing to run with the Gators just because they felt they had enough ball-handlers not to commit too many turnovers. But there's still the factor of tiring out your star players from the sheer pace alone. It took all their energy (and loose-mindedness from UF) to pull back within 53-56 with 8 minutes to go, but Mike Miller led another spurt that effectively put the game out of reach from that point on.
Wisconsin is in the same position as Villanova was in 1985, against a heavily-favored conferencemate. It's a possibility that they can muddy up the game against Michigan State enough to pull off the upset, but not at all likely. Unlike Georgetown '85, the Spartans have unfinished business from last year and aren't going to look past any obstacle in the way of their title hopes. Carolina withstood the defensive pressure of Tulsa, so there's no reason they shouldn't be able to do the same against Florida (who mostly wants to force tempo, not turnovers). Cota and Haywood are playing smart. If UNC can last through the middle to make the game an endplay, the advantage swings way in favor of the Tar Heels. But no matter the opponent, Michigan State is too versatile to be denied this year's crown.
In the NIT, Notre Dame made it back to Madison Sqaure Garden for the third time around this year. (They also made the semifinals of the PRESEASON NIT, as well as playing the Big East tournament there.) They're only 1-3 in Madison Square Garden this year, though (all against neutral opponents). Troy Murphy is the best player who made it to the semifinals. Penn State isn't the kind of extremely quick team that would cause the slow-footed Irish the most trouble (but the Nittany Lions are the only team left for whom an NIT berth wasn't a disappointment). Wake Forest is the only one of the four teams that had to play a road game in order to make it to New York, so look for the Demon Deacons to run past ND on Thursday to claim the title of "Best Performance By An Underachieving Team".
The Spartan Way
And how about the effort of Mateen Cleaves? Coach Tom Izzo made a great move by not trying to use Cleaves to break the press on the dribble. Instead, he used other players (Charlie Bell, Jason Richardson and Morris Peterson) to advance the ball and Cleaves wound up on the receiving end of the break, scoring on driving lay-ups and hitting big three-pointers from the top of the key in the halfcourt set. All of that was completely against type for the Spartans, but this team was versatile enough to pull it off brilliantly. They fit together so well. Everyone knew his role and played it. A.J. Granger had a career-high 19 points hitting open jump shots early. Peterson stepped up his scoring in the second half to salt the game away late. When Cleaves sprained his ankle and left the game for 5 minutes, the Spartans didn't panic. They'd played 13 games without him to start the season, so it wasn't a crisis for them for Cleaves not to be on the floor (as it would have been for North Carolina in the semifinal not to have Ed Cota). They actually increased the lead when Cleaves was out with reserve Mike Chappell coming in to hit a couple of key baskets to hold the Gators at bay.
Billy Donovan changed his substitution pattern for the title game for reasons unknown. Rather than bring in a completely new second five early in the game as he'd been doing throughout the tournament, he only inserted freshman Brett Nelson, who didn't make his usual immediate impact. Granted, MSU was deep enough not to tire and had enough ball-handlers not to turn the ball over, but why abandon the gimmick that got you there? When Ed Cota got his fourth foul in the semifinal on Saturday, Florida went right at him and the game turned from a 6-point Tar Heel lead to a 5-point Gator lead in the space of two minutes. That brief stretch decided the outcome of that game. But when Cleaves returned to the floor after spraining his ankle in the final, UF inexplicably didn't do the same and attack his obvious defensive liabilities. The point-blank low-post offense was working so well, behind Udonis Haslem's career-high 27 points, that they were blinded by it and became one-dimensional (except for more ridiculous three-pointers when they needed to make sure to score on some key possessions). Another problem with Donovan's shuttle-substitution style is that it tends to make the team leaderless. Mike Miller is their best all-around player, but he is often not their leading scorer. You'd think that their starting point guard, pretty-boy-hatchet-man Teddy Dupay, would be their floor leader but what kind of leadership skills can you build in a player when you're quoted in the papers saying he couldn't make it in Division I ball if it weren't for the frantic pace style of play that hides his lack of quickness?
Give tons of credit to Bill Guthridge for even getting the Tar Heels back into the Florida-North Carolina game at all after the Gators burst out of the gate with an 18-3 lead on Saturday. Brendan Haywood played another smart game and when Joseph Forte finally woke up offensively, it looked like UNC might actually pull another big W when they led 48-42 at the 16-minute mark. Ed Cota's 4th foul with 13 minutes to play changed the entire complexion of the game. Florida immediately started scoring again with Cota unable to defend his man and then the UF gameplan of tiring out their opponent took hold as the game wound down. (Here's where Ronald Curry, whose football injury in the fall put him out for the entire basketball season, could have been a big help.)
The Michigan State-Wisconsin semifinal game was hardly worth watching. Call it "smothering D" by the Spartans if you want to, or else call it inept offensive ability by the Badgers. Some of UW's shots missed the rim by feet, not inches. Yikes. There's a showcase for Big 10 basketball. Thanks, but no thanks.
In the NIT finals, Wake Forest had enough size to keep Troy Murphy from wreaking havoc and they were much quicker than the rest of the Fighting Irish. The Demon Deacons entered this season with a question of whether they could turn scoring guard Robert O'Kelley into a passable point guard. They couldn't and the season was almost squandered. The saving grace was abandoning the experiment (almost casting O'Kelley entirely aside as the lead player) and becoming a blue-collar starless team. At the very end of the season, O'Kelley's shot returned without the pressure of being the go-to guy and the NIT title was the result.
Has the '90s-style champion run its course? Florida wasn't able to use the Pitino win-by-attrition formula successfully against Michigan State. Meanwhile, the two "Teams of the '90s", Kentucky and Duke, only managed to go 3-2 in this year's NCAA tournament. Nothing has changed in the rules that would warrant believing the Pitino formula no longer applies. Chalk it up to a one-year anomaly with the Wildcat and Blue Devil programs going through transitional "rebuilding" years (which included an ACC regular season and tournament title as well as a #1-ranking at year's end for Duke, mind you) and the Gators' falling to a superior squad. The Spartans don't represent a trend. They're the culmination of a lot of talented individuals led by one great point guard, Mateen Cleaves. He came back for this one goal, and he got what he came for. Hats off to The Man.
That'll do it for this season. Hope you enjoyed reading HOOP, LINE AND SINKER as much as I enjoyed writing it. Take care and we'll do it all again next year.
Ron McBay
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