Like most of the leagues with two divisions, the balance of power isn't evenly
distributed. The East Division of the Atlantic 10 is much tougher than the West (but
at least there's intra-division play, unlike the WAC.
In the East, Massachusetts, Temple and Rhode Island all have
national aspirations as well as the league title on their minds. There's no clear favorite
inside the league. Xavier's unbalanced schedule could wind up being the determining factor in
who wins the East Division regular season title.
Massachusetts, which started the season with Top 10 aspirations, has collapsed. They're no
longer worth tracking on the national scene, but still may be capable of making noise in the
downgraded Atlantic 10. Xavier has had a similarly disastrous preseason.
No league fell further from grace than the A-10.
Temple, Rhode Island,
Xavier and Massachusetts all had lots of talent on their rosters and entered the season with
great expectations. They all have floundered. Inside the league, maybe one or two of them can
get their act together (or maybe they'll all drag each other down with their inconsistent play).
Rhode Island is 7-7 and no longer worth tracking on the national scene. 6-10 Lamar Odom
point player is a special talent, but the team just doesn't work as a whole. That said, this
league is too good not to keep an eye on from a national perspective.
Xavier (now 9-4) seems to have righted itself a bit, so
they're back being tracked nationally.
1 /16: @ Temple 76 Rhode Island 63
1 /17: @ Xavier 81 George Washington 61
1 /23: George Washington 81 @ Rhode Island 74
1 /23: @ Temple 65 Massachusetts 57
Conference play has allowed Xavier,
Temple, Rhode Island and Massachusetts to recover from their
rocky preseason showings. George Washington continues to be solid.
2 / 4: Rhode Island 73 @ Massachusetts 62
2 / 6: Temple 72 @ Rhode Island 63
2 /13: @ Rhode Island 59 Massachusetts 56
2 /14: @ Xavier 62 Temple 60
2 /17: @ George Washington 78 Massachusetts 72
2 /20: @ Temple 72 George Washington 56
2 /20: @ Massachusetts 78 Xavier 77 (2OT) (only the Minutement get the Musketeers at home)
2 /27: @ George Washington 77 Xavier 74
2 /28: @ Massachusetts 57 Temple 49
Duke is the clear favorite (with national
title aspirations as well) but they won't have the overwhelming depth of last year.
Maryland (a legitimate Final Four contender) should
be able to come within 25 points of the Blue Devils this time around. There's a bit
of nervousness over in Chapel Hill this these days. Without much returning star power
or the reassuring visage of Dean Smith on the sidelines,
North Carolina will do well to hold off
Clemson and
Wake Forest for third place.
Pete Gillen (ex-Xavier, ex-Providence) takes over at
Virginia but the cupboard is bare.
Duke and Maryland have
their sights set on the brass ring. Losing the league crown won't be the biggest disappointment
in their season. North Carolina isn't consistent enough to
take the regular season title, but they could win the conference tournament.
Clemson will suffer outside the league for its bloody losses
inside it. Wake Forest is just too young (and has a scoring guard, Robert O'Kelley, at the
point as well).
Key games:
1 / 2: @ N Carolina 69 Clemson 53
(as good a time as any for the drought to end)
1 / 3: []Duke 82 @ Maryland 64
Clemson was playing well in the first half at
North Carolina and for a while it looked like the 0-44 streak
might actually end, but the lack of outside shooting caught up to the Tigers and the Tar Heels
pulled away late.
Duke came to College Park and soundly defeated
Maryland. The regular season title chase is effectively over
before it starts. This was the biggest league test on their schedule and the Blue Devils passed
it with flying colors. The only questions now are whether the loss will shake the confidence of
the Terrapins (who still shouldn't have any trouble finishing second) and whether
North Carolina can play consistently enough to hold off
Clemson for third place.
The only regular season drama left is whether
North Carolina can stop
Duke's undefeated run through the league in the last game of
the regular season. Maryland's loss at Wake Forest precludes
any hopes they had of tying Duke for the regular season
title. North Carolina's been solid in the #3 spot, but the
wheels have come off down at Clemson. Florida State and
Georgia Tech have done a good job wading through the rest of
the pack.
A national title is within the sights of
Michigan State, but the first priority is a
second straight Big 10 title. (And don't expect them to stumble in the conference
tournament this time around.) Purdue should have
no trouble finishing second (at least). Indiana
will do well to fight off Minnesota and Penn State for third
place.
It's Tom Davis' last year at Iowa. No more bounce passes --
hallelujah!
The Big 10 had the best showing among all conferences in the preseason. 8 teams made noise
one way or the other and the league captured two tournament titles: the PEARL HARBOR CLASSIC
(Michigan State) and the PUERTO RICO (CHRISTMAS) SHOOTOUT
(Ohio State).
Michigan State has a shot at the national championship.
Purdue, Wisconsin,
Minnesota and Indiana all
have a shot at the league crown. Ohio State,
Iowa and Penn State all have good wins already.
The best conference in the land had a great first half. The top four
(Michigan State,
Wisconsin, Iowa and
Ohio State) are a cut above the middle of the pack, but
the league was solid top to bottom (e.g., only Iowa won on the road at 9th-place Michigan).
Purdue has collapsed a bit while
Indiana has wavered but is hanging in there. It will still
have to wait for the conference tournament to determine the true league champion.
Last year's North and South Divisions have been scrapped for one 12-team
conference. Kansas only has to face
Oklahoma State and
Oklahoma once each (the last week of the season). So things
will have to wait until the conference tournament before the real champion is determined.
Rick Barnes left Clemson and is now the head coach
at Texas. Stan Bonewitz is still around at Texas Tech, so there's still one reason to
watch them -- for that sweet rotation on his jumper (when he can get it off) and for
his flashy passing -- but don't expect a lot of wins.
Oklahoma State,
Kansas and Oklahoma all
have good coaching on the sidelines, but out on the floor the talent's a bit sparse. It'll be
tough for any of them to get much better with the lack of physical talent to compete against
inside the league.
For a league that had an inconsistent preseason, you'd have hoped that they'd have settled
into solid play amongst each other. But it's really been more of the same inconsistent play
with even the good teams losing at home. Texas is the leader at the midway point, but they're
no lock to take it all the way home.
The league has abandoned last year's Big East 6 and Big East 7 split divisions and
it's just one big 13-team conference this time around.
Connecticut should have no trouble in conference
while Syracuse and
St. John's battle for second and third.
Connecticut is a national contender, but they could
lose the league crown to St. John's if they don't take
care of first things first. Pittsburgh and Syracuse aren't
consistent enough to win the regular season crown, but they'll make noise in the conference
tournament.
Pittsburgh put itself into the national conversation with wins in the PUERTO RICO
(THANKSGIVING) SHOOTOUT over Xavier and then
Kentucky. Since then, however, the Panthers haven't continued
to show form that warrants national tracking. Now they're back in the category of "conference
spoiler".
Connecticut has stormed through the league as expected.
(At this point, only Syracuse may be able to stop their
undefeated run through the regular season.) St. John's
has been exceptionally solid in the second spot.
Miami (Florida) and surprising Rutgers have been good
enough to do damage at home while Syracuse has been up and
down, home and away.
New Mexico State is on top at the midway point, but
Boise State is close behind.
2 / 6: Boise St 67 @ New Mexico St 48
2 / 8: @ New Mexico St 80 Idaho 73
2 /11: @ Idaho 82 New Mexico St 78
2 /13: @ Boise St 70 New Mexico St 48
2 /18: @ Utah St 68 Idaho 67
2 /20: @ Utah St 63 Boise St 62
2 /25: @ New Mexico St 55 Utah St 52
2 /28: @ Idaho 64 Boise St 59
3 / 4: BIG WEST TOURNAMENT 1ST ROUND/QUARTERS @ Reno, NV
Cincinnati has plenty of talent to deal with
Conference USA (but may not be able to be cohesive enough to make a national
impact). St. Louis has "The Year After" Rule in effect this season (after Larry
Hughes left for the NBA while the remaining 4 starters return), but that's about it.
In the National Division, Memphis and UAB will fight to the finish. Don't expect much
of a showing out of conference for either club, though.
Former NBA star and Cougar alumnus Clyde Drexler takes over as head coach at Houston.
Louisville is on NCAA probation and is ineligible for
postseason play.
Cincinnati is a national contender, but they don't take
lesser opponents seriously enough. Louisville has nothing
else to point to and has enough talent to sneak by them. DePaul is too young not to slip up
somewhere along the way. St. Louis will make noise, but won't contend for the regular season
title.
The Fab Three freshman frontline of Quentin Richardson, Bobby Simmons and Lance Williams
will be a force to be reckoned with before they're done ... but it won't be this year, it seems.
They're impressive to watch, but the team results don't warrant national tracking. Catch them
whenever you can, though. They're fun to watch.
Let's see. Princeton is better than Penn. Have
I got that right? If things come together in the preseason, the Tigers will media
darlings once again. If not, they still have plenty of time to get it together inside
the Ivies and will have a good shot at an NCAA tournament win.
Princeton and Penn undefeated at the top of the standings
is no surprise, but Dartmouth out front at 6-0 could sneak through if they don't pay attention.
Miami (Ohio) hopes to make a splash out of
conference this season. The East Division has lots of returning talent, though -- 5
out of the 7 teams have all five starters back from last year -- so they may need to
look over their shoulders at the likes of Akron and Marshall.
In the West, Toledo is the best of a bad bunch (but they're hosting the conference
tournament).
No conference outside of the Big 10 probably has as much balanced
quality teams as the MAC. Miami (Ohio) has the goods to
make a dent outside the league, but that's no guarantee of a league crown. Ohio University,
Toledo, Marshall and Western Michigan can beat any one of the others on a given night. Should
be some great games.
Miami (Ohio) has seemingly cruised through conference
play so far, but the truth is they've yet to meet the better teams (like Ohio University and
Toledo) inside the league.
Detroit and IL-Chicago will once again battle
it out for the in-conference title. Don't be surprised if they both make it back to
the NCAA tournament as well.
Key games:
1 / 9: @ Detroit 70 IL-Chicago 42
1 /16: Butler 59 @ Detroit 46
It's Butler who's arisen as the main challenge to
Detroit for the regular season crown (and right now
they're in the driver's seat having won the first game on the road).
Creighton hasn't been able to run away from the other
top teams in the league (SW Missouri State, Evansville and Bradley). It's still a scramble at
the top and the regular season champ may well not win the conference tournament.
Tevester Anderson has enough talent at Murray State to
guide them to the title in his debut season as a collegiate head coach. Tennessee State should
come in second.
Key games:
1 /14: Murray St 71 @ SE Missouri St 70
1 /21: @ Murray St 81 Tennessee St 71
SE Missouri State has emerged as the challenger to
Murray State for league honors. The first game was a
one-point road win for the Racers. Expect the second game to be just as tight.
Stanford returns the same starting five that
that made the Final Four and is the clear favorite.
Washington has an experienced backcourt and an aircraft
carrier in the middle (Todd MacCulloch), but could use some fluid forwards.
UCLA has loads of new talent coming in, which means they'll
be erratic. (The Bruins will have a better chance to do well in the NCAA tournament than in the
regular season conference race.)
California may surprise.
Arizona must readjust its attitude with national contention no
longer in the picture.
At Arizona State, Rob Evans comes in as the new coach after turning around the program at
Mississippi.
Stanford is a title-contender, if slightly less
dominating than advertized. UCLA and
Arizona still may be more hype than reality, but they'll
contend for the league title. Washington has been hurt by
injury, but they're still dangerous. California may be good
for a spoiler role.
Washington's continued slide takes them out of the
national spotlight. Winning the BIG ISLAND CLASSIC (over no one) back in November was the
highlight of their season. They're no longer worth tracking in the bigger picture, but are
still plenty good enough to make an impact inside the conference. In the meantime, Oregon has
emerged as another conference force.
Arizona has squeaked its way into contention for the
league title. Their win over Stanford kept them in the
hunt, but they have to stop playing teams so close to the wire every time out.
Washington is giving it one last push at turning their
slumping season around. California has lost every game
against the other top league teams.
Kentucky has another run at the Final Four in them (so the
SEC East title should be a snap). Tennessee has the talent
to spoil things, but can such a young team handle the pressure of expectations? Expect
Georgia to be erratic in conference play, but able to make
noise at tournament time. South Carolina will do well to hold onto respectability in conference
after another postseason flop.
In the West Division, Arkansas should have an easy
time with no serious challenge.
Kentucky is well in the hunt for a fourpeat Final Four
appearance. Tennessee and
Georgia have talent, but haven't harnessed it.
Auburn and Florida are
young but unproven. And the Arkansas Razorbacks are still
hanging around to make things difficult.
Kentucky and Auburn
seem like locks for their respective divisional titles.
Tennessee and Florida
will be dangerous at tourney time. Arkansas and
Mississippi need the rest of the regular season to solidify
their play. Georgia is going nowhere fast.
There's a new sheriff in town.
College of Charleston should take the conference
title in its first season in the league. Davidson returns 4 starters from last year's 20-win NCAA
team, but it won't be enough to stop the Cougars. Things are going to be a lot
different around here from now on.
The Northern Division will be close between Davidson and Appalachian State.
The Southern Division is all
College of Charleston the first time out.
They'll likely go undefeated in the league.
In addition to realigning the Mountain and Pacific Divisions, the WAC will have
its teams play a full 14-game schedule within their division (with no
intra-division games) during the regular season. The Mountain Division is the
Junior Circuit this season, so downgrade the records of UNLV, TCU and Tulsa
accordingly.
* The eight asterisked teams (Air Force, BYU, Colorado State,
New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV,
Utah and Wyoming) will leave after this
season to form their own league. So consider this year's conference tournament (held
in Las Vegas) as the inaugural "Old WAC/New WAC Challenge".
UNLV has things in good shape in the Mountain Division and again hosts the conference
tournament in March. TCU will still run wild, but with much less effect.
The Pacific Division is where it's at in the WAC.
Utah,
New Mexico and
Fresno State all have a shot at the regular
season division title as well as the conference tournament crown as well (if they can
shut out the UNLV crowd in their minds, that is).
There's talent at the top, if not quite good enough to make a lot of national noise.
New Mexico,
Fresno State, Utah,
UNLV and TCU all can be good at times. The no-intra-division-games schedule means a lot of the
best matchups can't happen until the conference tournament, though.
Utah has found its form with its new lineup and is
starting to pull away from the pack in the Pacific Division.
Fresno State and
New Mexico aren't really within reach of them. UNLV has
stepped up in the Mountain Division. TCU is even more hype
than they were last year. Tulsa's not hype, but they're not much more than decent.
Gonzaga is taking care of business like a good team
should. They haven't allowed themselves to get dragged down to the level of play of their
lesser conferencemates.