"... and I awoke from my sleep and I saw that it was a new day."
Five of last year's juggernauts have enough returning firepower to be the early favorites for this year's title. Stanford returns its entire roster except for one sub. They'll need to avoid the problem Clemson had last year of growing stale without any new blood to keep things fresh. They're deep and physical (if slightly vulnerable to extreme quickness). Duke doesn't have the overwhelming depth from last year, but that may be a good thing. William Avery must take over the reins completely this time around and learn to make good decisions in the tight moments of games. Connecticut returns its starting five and this might finally be the year they at least make the Final Four after being such a dominant team in the regular season. Short but strong Khalid El-Amin forces the pace while Richard Hamilton forces the shots. Kentucky still has Wayne Turner, Heshimu Evans and Scott Padgett who'll be looking for a four-peat trip to the Final Four. Michigan State has the likely Player of the Year in muscle point guard Mateen Cleaves and lots of athletes for him to pass to (but what they need is a player up front who can get his own points).
Teams that were decent last year, but may have better luck this year include Maryland (led by premier 'tweener Laron Profit) and Massachusetts (who underachieved in the postseason last year and is better than you think).
The new surprise killer team just might be Tennessee. They return five starters from last year's team and have loads of talent (led by soph guard Tony Harris).
The name on the jersey is the same, but UCLA and Rhode Island (with Lamar Odom finally in the lineup) will have new looks with a different cast of leading players.
Every year I give Georgia and Fresno State the benefit of the doubt at the beginning of the season because of some star player (this year it's Jumaine Jones and Chris Herren, respectively) and every year they disappoint. Probably won't be any different this time around, either.
On the outside looking in for a change (at least at the start of the season) are North Carolina, Kansas and South Carolina. Dean's disciples all have challenging coaching jobs facing them this year with less than dominant rosters looking up at them.
The "Year After" Rule is in full effect only at St. Louis this year after Larry Hughes jumped to the NBA after just one college season while the remaining four starters from last year return. Let's see if they can pull together and advance farther without him than they did with him. It happens a lot.
The Pac-10 (Stanford, Washington, UCLA), Atlantic 10 (Massachusetts, Temple, Rhode Island, Xavier), SEC (Kentucky, Arkansas, Tennessee, Georgia) and WAC (Utah, New Mexico, Fresno State) should have plenty of great games among the teams at the top.
Tom Penders was fired as the coach at the University of Texas. After rebuilding the Clemson program to national respectability, Rick Barnes has taken over for Penders in Austin. Penders is now the head coach at George Washington. Former GW coach Mike Jarvis is now the head coach at St. John's. Former NBA Houston Rocket and Houston Cougar Clyde Drexler is now the head coach at the University of Houston. Pete Gillen is the new coach down at Virginia. Rob Evans went from Mississippi to Arizona State. And, finally, let's hear it for Tevester Anderson, the new head coach at Murray State. Tevester was the head coach of the 28-0 state champion West Fulton High School (Atlanta, GA) team back in 1976 that featured Ricky Brown (Mississippi State '80), Kenny Hall (Penn '81) and Donald "Nutchie" Brock. Tevester has been a college assistant coach for 20 years before finally getting a head coaching job at the collegiate level this year. (He was deemed "too valuable as a recruiter" heretofore.)
Some good national games are on tap this year. Most are in November and December
before conference play starts up:
PRESEASON NIT (Nov 16-27:
Massachusetts, Georgia,
Purdue, Col of Charleston,
North Carolina),
MAUI INVITATIONAL (Nov 23-25:
Utah, Clemson,
Syracuse, Indiana),
PUERTO RICO SHOOTOUT (Nov 26-29:
Kentucky, Maryland,
UCLA, Xavier),
GREAT EIGHT (Dec 2:
Duke v Michigan State),
Michigan State@Connecticut (Dec 5),
BB&T CLASSIC (Dec 6:
Stanford@Maryland),
Maryland@Kentucky (Dec 12),
JIMMY V CLASSIC (Dec 22:
Duke v Kentucky),
Connecticut@Stanford (Feb 6).
We've got a long way to go before we make it to St. Petersburg for the Final Four.
Not much on tap in the first two weekends of the season. Worth a glance are:
the second day of the NABC CLASSIC: S Carolina@Indiana (Sun 8 Nov),
TCU@Rhode Island (Mon 9 Nov),
the COACHES VS. CANCER CLASSIC featuring Temple and Wake Forest (Tue-Wed 10-11 Nov)
and Tennessee@Arizona (Fri 13 Nov).
One Step Forward, Two Steps Back
The BCA CLASSIC in Albuquerque featured two one-point squeakers, but while the New Mexico-DePaul game was well played, the Tennessee-Arizona game was a mess. If you took the names off of Tennessee and DePaul, it’d be hard to guess which one had 5 returning starters from an NCAA tournament team and which one had 3 freshman and a JuCo transfer in its starting lineup. The Volunteers clearly had no idea what’s a good shot and only made the game close by virtue of their individual talent (read: Tony Harris’ firing away from 3-point land). DePaul’s freshman frontline of Bobby Simmons, Quentin Richardson and Lance Williams fit together in a way that’s reminiscent of the Fab Five. Keep one eye on the Blue Demons. Arizona’s Jason Terry was more than up to the task of being Option #1 (which is a good thing ‘cause the Pac-10’s deep again this year).
Temple won the COACHES VS. CANCER CLASSIC and looked good doing it. They’ve got 5 players who can put the ball on the floor and create their own offense off the dribble plus a big guy in the middle to clean up any misses. Not bad. Still, Wake Forest’s youth (11 underclassmen) helped the Owls erase a 16-point deficit in the final as much as Temple’s poise.
Lamar Odom’s debut at Rhode Island was more than worth the wait as he nearly turned in a triple-double (19p,14r,9a) in his first game against TCU and followed that with a 20-point effort the next night against Vanderbilt in the CoSIDA CLASSIC in Providence. Vandy coach Jan van Breda Kolff called him “an athletic Magic Johnson”. (Odom is a 6-10 playmaker.) Maybe “an athletic Larry Bird” might be closer to the point. When you think of Magic, you think of fast breaks, but when URI played Providence, the Friars ran them out of the building on the way to a 24-point rout.
Even blowouts can be revealing if you check the box scores. Maryland got plenty of points from its freshman guards. Utah had 5 players in double figures. Fresno State got 2 points (but 8 assists) from Chris Herren and lots of frontcourt scoring. This is all good news. Clemson did get double figures from bruisers Harold Jamison and Tom Wideman, but 27 points from Terrell McIntyre isn’t what the doctor ordered for the Tigers.
This season gets going in earnest this week starting with the first two rounds of the PRESEASON NIT. The College of Charleston goes to Georgia right off the bat while the likes of Stanford, Purdue, Massachusetts and North Carolina all should advance to the second round. Arkansas’ debut wasn’t overwhelming, but they should have enough to win 3 games and take the weak TOP OF THE WORLD CLASSIC in Fairbanks. Oklahoma State should likewise have no trouble winning the 2-round ZIPPY’S INVITATIONAL in Honolulu. A superb early season clash will be Michigan State at Temple on Friday. Tennessee and Rhode Island get another chance to live up to their advance billing against Miami (Ohio) and Cincinnati, respectively.
Key games this week: PRESEASON NIT (Monday, Wednesday: College of Charleston@Georgia plus Stanford, Purdue, Massachusetts, North Carolina), TOP OF THE WORLD CLASSIC (Thursday-Sunday: Arkansas), ZIPPY’S INVITATIONAL (Friday-Saturday: Oklahoma State), Tennessee@Miami-OH (Thursday), Cincinnati@Rhode Island (Thursday), Michigan St@Temple (Friday).
The way we did it was a bit different: when the ball got tied up, someone had to call "frog" and whoever called it first, their team got the ball. So you wound up with guys whose entire defensive strategy was to just grab at the ball and immediately call "frog" and then claim the ball on a turnover. It seems like the NCAA thinks this is a good idea, 'cause that's just about what they've instituted this year with their new rule changes. Now all you have to do is cause a held ball situation on defense (or stand within 6 feet of your defender for 5 seconds) and it's a turnover. No more alternating possession. You might as well grab it and call "frog" 'cause it's the same difference.
Temple shot terribly from the floor and from the line at home against Michigan State and trailed by 15 before they staged a frantic comeback in the closing minutes by pressing non-stop and were aided by a huge change of possession created by simply tying up the ball. Of course, Mateen Cleaves' other 9 turnovers helped out, too. The Spartans looked great for a while, showcasing their athleticism and excellent individual defense and rebounding, but their over-reliance on one player to do the bulk of the ball-handling and decision-making ultimately did them in.
In the case of Miami (Ohio), one player does it all for them, too: Wally Szczerbiak. Szczerbiak's a muscular 6-8 'tweener who already has NBA guard skills. He burned the Tennessee Volunteers for 34 points and 12 rebounds in the first Player of the Year-calibre performance of the season. UT played much better than they had against Arizona, but they've still got a lot to work on in the poise and court savvy departments.
Georgia was surprisingly dominant against the College of Charleston in the first round of the PRESEASON NIT but then failed to show up until 10 minutes were left against North Carolina in the second round. The Tar Heels looked surprisingly cohesive this early in the season with such a new mix of players (and they still don't have Ronald Curry or Vasco Evtimov in the lineup yet).
Oklahoma State (ZIPPY'S INVITATIONAL) and Villanova (TOP OF THE WORLD CLASSIC) won two tournaments with mediocre fields. Don't read too much into those wins. The big tournaments take place this week. Don't miss them. Some of the best matchups all year will happen in the next 7 days. Look for Stanford's 6-deep frontcourt to foul out North Carolina's twin towers in the final after the Tar Heels' height (and Ed Cota) is too much for Purdue to deal with in the conclusion of the PRESEASON NIT. At the PUERTO RICO SHOOTOUT, Maryland probably has their act together slightly ahead of Kentucky and the super frosh at UCLA. (Xavier is too weak up front to deal with those other powers.) Duke should cruise in the GREAT ALASKA SHOOOUT. The more interesting question will be the performances of Cincinnati and Fresno State. At the MAUI INVITATIONAL, any one among Clemson, Utah, Syracuse or Indiana could come through, but the Tigers look more together at this early stage of the season.
The pretenders have almost all been shaken out of the Top 25 at this point, but there are still some teams who haven't yet played a "benchmark" opponent that provides a clearer understanding of how well they're playing. Another week will settle things down much better.
Don't forget to check out Fox Sports' special Between The Madness on Thursday. It's a behind-the-scenes documentary on last year's circus show that was Fresno State. Should be a good one.
The key games this week are all in the holiday tournaments: the MAUI INVITATIONAL (Monday-Wednesday: Clemson, Utah, Syracuse, Indiana), the GREAT ALASKA SHOOTOUT (Monday-Saturday: Duke, Cincinnati, Fresno State), the conclusion of the PRESEASON NIT (Wednesday & Friday: Stanford, North Carolina v Purdue), the PUERTO RICO SHOOTOUT (Thursday-Saturday: Kentucky, Maryland, UCLA v Xavier) and the BIG ISLAND INVITATIONAL (Washington, Georgia Tech, St Louis).
"You Might Win Some (But You Just Lost One)"
Maryland doesn't have the most impressive pelts from last week, but it put on the most impressive display of basketball by rolling through the loaded field at the PUERTO RICO SHOOTOUT. Pittsburgh's rout of Xavier doesn't look so good now since the Musketeers lost again (to San Francisco), but the Panthers also beat Kentucky with their quickness and 3-point shooting. Maryland was even better at those things than Pitt was as they drubbed them by 35 points. Maryland and Connecticut are both destroying their opponents by forcing numerous turnovers and scoring easy points off the break. But the Terps get the nod for two reasons: 1) UConn generates turnovers by pressing fullcourt all game long. It's a gimmick. Maryland gets just as many turnovers out of their regular halfcourt defense as they do from the press. 2) UConn has two great players (Khalid El-Amin and Richard Hamilton), but Maryland has 4 or 5 guys who can make a play for you. The win over Pitt was the first game this season in which Laron Profit even played well. Obinna Ezekie isn't contributing all that much, either, right now. It's the two new guards (JuCo Steve Francis and freshman Juan Dixon) and sophomore Terrence Morris who've been leading the way so far.
North Carolina shouldn't be this good this early in the season, but they are. Ed Cota is having a great year and 7-0 sophomore Brendan Haywood already looks like the best center in the country among the nation's elite teams. (And Ronald Curry and Vasco Evtimov aren't even contributing yet.) The Tar Heels looked very match tough in taking the PRESEASON NIT crown. Stanford looks like it's suffering the same fate early on as Clemson did last year. With the same roster back from a bruiser squad, the inside muscle is doing fine but the outside finesse game of guards Arthur Lee and Kris Weems and 'tweener Pete Sauer hasn't shown up yet. One cannot live on Bruiser Ball alone.
Cincinnati showed it had enough inside muscle to negate Elton Brand in their win over Duke in the GREAT ALASKA SHOOTOUT final. The Blue Devils got behind by 19 points in the first half (off of sloppy playmaking from their point-guard-by-committee lineup). Yes, they came all the way back on the spectacular shot-making of William Avery and Trajan Langdon. The problem is how they came back. They did by bombing away from 3-point land. They still haven't learned how to work for a good shot on key possessions. They were still firing away from beyond the circle in the late stages of that game and it came back to haunt them. "Same as it ever was."
Syracuse was in fine form showcasing a nice balance of inside strength, outside scoring and solid defense in taking the MAUI INVITATIONAL over the likes of Indiana in the final. Washington won routinely over a mediocre field in the BIG ISLAND CLASSIC, but at least they're where they should be right now. Kansas is playing better ball than Oklahoma State so the Jayhawks enter the Top 25 (just in time to face Kentucky this week) while the Cowboys barely hang onto their ranking.
The GREAT EIGHT is the big news this week on Tuesday and Wednesday. Duke vs. Michigan State is the big matchup, but don't overlook Utah vs. Rhode Island. The Rams aren't a good team right now, but this is your chance to check out 6-10 point forward Lamar Odom. Michigan State then goes to Connecticut Saturday for the ultimate track meet. Watch Maryland make the Stanford front line look like statues on Sunday in the BB&T CLASSIC. Also check out Wally Szczerbiak when Miami (Ohio) travels to Xavier. Pittsburgh at Tennessee should be entertaining.
Key games this week:
GREAT EIGHT (Tuesday:
Connecticut-Washington,
Kentucky-Kansas;
Wednesday:
Michigan State-Duke,
Utah-Rhode Island),
Charleston@Massachusetts (Tuesday),
Miami (Ohio)@Xavier (Wednesday),
Michigan State@Connecticut (Saturday),
Temple@Indiana (Saturday),
JOHN WOODEN CLASSIC (Saturday:
Oklahoma State@UCLA,
Kansas@Pepperdine),
Purdue@Xavier (Saturday),
BB&T CLASSIC (Sunday:
Stanford@Maryland),
Pittsburgh@Tennessee.
MAC Attack
Way under the radar, though, something very interesting happened: the Mid-American Conference had a very good week (and the best team in the conference, Miami (Ohio), lost twice). The RedHawks lost on the road at Xavier and then got clobbered at Wisconsin-Green Bay. But look what else happened: Western Michigan beat Michigan (which had seemed to be righting itself); Toledo edged a good Ohio State team; Marshall whacked Massachusetts; and Ohio University won the CARRIER CLASSIC going through Syracuse and Illinois-Chicago in the process. Only one of them made this week's Top 25, but this week is a sign of how competitive that league will be this year. The MAC champion is usually a strong team come tournament time, and if it turns out to be Miami (Ohio) after all (with their All-America leader Wally Szczerbiak), they might be prepped to do some major damage in March. Keep a watch on that league.
Maryland's stock actually went down a little bit by not being able to separate itself from Stanford in front of a "home" crowd. The Cardinal's rebounding strength allowed them to dictate tempo and slow the game down to a pace more to their liking. Give the Terps credit, though, for winning playing against type so they hold onto the top spot.
Connecticut wiped away Washington so easily it makes you wonder why that game was close at all last year in the tournament. Against Michigan State (and in front of a home crowd), Khalid El-Amin outplayed Mateen Cleaves. Usually, the Spartans are the ones forcing their opponents into a pace that's too fast for them to cope, but UConn likes it hectic so they didn't have an angle to work in that game. MSU ran into two top teams playing very well. The first five minutes of the Duke game were scary. Trajan Langdon, William Avery and Elton Brand are the most talented (offensively) trio in the country and it showed in their quick 17-2 lead. Michigan State actually was able to muscle the Blue Devils around a bit underneath (just like Cincinnati did) after they recovered from that initial barrage. So cut the Spartans some slack for a week with two losses in it.
North Carolina revealed itself to be one of those teams that can defeat the big boys while also struggling to get past the little boys. That's not a good trait to have. It's a recipe for an early-round upset come tournament time. They may not make it to the later rounds in which they'll be equipped to compete for the national championship if teams like Old Dominion and the College of Charleston can play them to a standstill in front of a "home" crowd in Charlotte.
Baron Davis is back in the lineup at UCLA, so they're worth a re-evaluation as to their capacity to deal with the contending teams. There's still plenty of time for them to get in sync before league play starts up.
Kentucky has a chance to make its mark this week with the dual home game with Indiana and the real home game with Maryland whom they didn't get to meet in Puerto Rico. (The Terps didn't handle Stanford's frontline muscle so well, so the Wildcats may present the same problem.) Pittsburgh's Puerto Rico success may be wiped away if they don't win at least one of their games this week at St. John's or at home against Connecticut. They're in the middle of a tough patch in their schedule.
What's that whispering I hear in the distance? "Murray State".
Key games this week:
BB&T CLASSIC FINAL (Monday: DePaul@Maryland),
Kentucky@@Indiana (Tuesday),
Pittsburgh@St. John's (Wednesday),
Maryland@Kentucky (Saturday),
Connecticut@Pittsburgh (Saturday),
Rhode Island@Ohio University (Saturday).
Am I Blue?
Kentucky may be putting the pieces together with this year's squad. The Indiana game was mostly scratchy stuff, but Scott Padgett led the way to victory in OT. He and Heshimu Evans both had career-highs Saturday against Maryland. Not that they're great at it just yet, but the Wildcats probably work the ball for a good shot in the halfcourt offense better than any of the other elite teams at this point. (Keep that in mind when they face "win by talent, not execution" Duke a week from Tuesday.) The Terrapins weren't able to force enough turnovers from Kentucky and even though Obinna Ekezie did score well in the paint, they weren't able to be dominant in the halfcourt game. (Remember, though, not many teams at all have enough talent to keep Maryland from running wild all game long, anyway. In particular, Duke will likely try to beat the Terps talent-on-talent rather than by outexecuting them when those two face off in early January.)
On the one hand, Connecticut deserves credit for pulling out two wins on the road in extremely hostile environments. On the other hand, they were beyond fortunate to beat Pittsburgh at the end of that game to remain undefeated. Duke edges ahead of them to the top of the polls for properly putting away lesser teams immediately.
The rest of the Top 25 isn't playing well enough to be worth mentioning right now. Teams outside the rankings (like Wisconsin and Auburn) are more worthy of inspection at this point. Jason Collier was impressive in his debut at Georgia Tech against Georgia. Without Dion Glover, though, the Yellow Jackets will only be spoilers inside the ACC. UNLV was more impressive than UCLA in its road loss to the Bruins on Saturday. They're one power forward away from being a fearsome squad. If that game was more than a one-time performance, they'll be Top 25 material before long.
No major matchups this week (and, actually, only one or two more the rest of December before conference play starts up). Don't expect Princeton to win at UAB and certainly not at Maryland. The Tigers lost too much experience to challenge nationally this time around at this point in the season. Fresno State @ Georgia should be sloppy but entertaining with the likes of Chris Herren and Jumaine Jones on the floor in the same game.
Key games this week:
Princeton@UAB (Tuesday),
Cincinnati@Minnesota (Wednesday),
DePaul@Kansas (Thursday),
DELTA AIR LINES CLASSIC (Saturday: Kentucky@Georgia Tech,
Fresno St@Georgia),
Princeton@Maryland (Saturday),
Oklahoma St@Creighton (Sunday).
But this game means even more than that. Duke vs Kentucky has now emerged as the top intersectional rivalry in college basketball. (It's at the level of what UCLA-Notre Dame used to be, and a lot less of a one-sided argument.) Those two programs are neck and neck for the claim of "Team of the 90s". This game won't settle the issue, but it'll give one of them a leg up. (Here's my take on the argument to date: while you can argue that Kentucky's runs to the Final Four and national titles were done with different sets of players and therefore it's a greater credit to the program overall, I think the Duke teams of the Laettner-Hurley-Hill era played a higher quality of basketball so they get my vote. But if one of those two schools wins this year's national championship, though, end of story.) By the way, I'll take Duke on Tuesday with payback on their minds.
New Mexico gets a chance to somewhat legitimize its lofty ranking on Thursday when it travels to Washington. Beating the Huskies (even on the road) won't really be worth a #13 ranking, but the Lobos are only that high at the moment because they're still undefeated.
The PEARL HARBOR CLASSIC had better be a foregone conclusion for Michigan State or they may start to plummet in the rankings. The Spartans are still living off of their preseason rep, but at this point you really need a quality win under your belt to justify a spot in the Top 10. If Ohio State or Oklahoma takes the PUERTO RICO HOLIDAY SHOOTOUT this week (while beating the other on the way to the title) it might be worth an appearance in next week's Top 25. The RAINBOW CLASSIC doesn't start up until Sunday, but it's up for grabs. Princeton and (undefeated) Murray State have as good a shot at that crown as anyone.
Fresno State has a chance to earn their way back into the national conversation this week. They played surprisingly under control on Saturday, winning on the road "at" Georgia even without Chris Herren (ankle injury) in the lineup. If they take the COORS LIGHT CLASSIC at home (and beat Miami (Ohio) in the process) and then win on the road at Wisconsin, they just might be rankable again.
Need a quick reference on how to categorize the important teams for this season? Here goes (feel free to disagree):
Key games this week:
PEARL HARBOR CLASSIC (Monday-Wednesday: Michigan St-Pepperdine, Texas Tech),
PUERTO RICO HOLIDAY SHOOTOUT (Monday-Wednesday: Ohio St, Oklahoma),
JIMMY V CLASSIC (Tuesday: Duke-Kentucky),
COORS LIGHT CLASSIC (Tuesday-Wednesday: Miami-OH, Fresno St),
Oklahoma St@UNLV (Tuesday),
Arkansas@Wake Forest (Wednesday),
New Mexico@Washington (Thursday),
Fresno St@Wisconsin (Sunday),
RAINBOW CLASSIC (Sunday-Wednesday week: Princeton, Murray St, Texas).
Play!
Here's the way the top teams shake out after looking at their preseason performance as a whole:
Now let's take a look at how the conferences shape up. The Pac-10 has been doing a lot of woofing this year, and the MAC had that one great week. The ACC, as usual, is a mixture of hype and reality (they claimed the PRESEASON NIT and the PUERTO RICO (THANKSGIVING) SHOOTOUT while losing in the final of GREAT ALASKA). The Atlantic 10 did a serious crash and burn. But the league that made the biggest impression in the preseason is the Big 10. No fewer than 8 of the 11 Big 10 teams did something worth noticing (including the PEARL HARBOR and PUERTO RICO (CHRISTMAS) SHOOTOUT titles). Here's a quick rundown of the Top 10 leagues:
This week's #1 vs #2 matchup should be better than last week's. The ACC regular season race could be over before it starts if Duke wins at Maryland on Sunday. Let's hope not. A Terrapin win will put pressure on the Blue Devils not to have a slip-up somewhere along the way. That'll be better for them in the long run, and more entertaining for us to watch during the regular season.
Saturday's a big day: Auburn gets to find out if it's for real when it hosts Tennessee, as does Arizona when it travels to UCLA. Michigan State can solidify its juggernaut status with a home win over Louisville. And Clemson puts its 0-44 streak on the line when it ventures into the Dean Dome against North Carolina. (Hey, this Carolina team can be had. It could happen.)
Temple could slide even further into decline if it doesn't win one of its games against Stanford or Fresno State. There's a great Big 10 game everywhere you turn.
Key games this week:
RAINBOW CLASSIC (Monday-Wednesday: Princeton-Florida St,
UNC-Charlotte, Texas),
PETE NEWELL CHALLENGE (Tuesday: Temple@Stanford,
North Carolina@California),
Wednesday: Gonzaga@TCU,
Thursday: Indiana@Iowa,
Temple@Fresno St,
Saturday: Louisville@Michigan St,
Florida@Kentucky,
Clemson@North Carolina,
Minnesota@Purdue,
Ohio St@Wisconsin,
Arizona@UCLA,
Tennessee@Auburn,
Sunday: Duke@Maryland,
Rhode Island@Xavier.
True Blue
Morris Peterson has emerged as the frontcourt leader that Michigan State needs to take some of the pressure off of Mateen Cleaves to do it all by himself. Peterson scored just about every way you can (from three-point land, on flying dunks on the break, posting up down low, and driving to the basket in the halfcourt set) against Louisville. MSU still committed too many turnovers -- a reliable backcourt mate for Cleaves would help out a lot -- and they couldn't put the Cardinals away at home, but Louisville has fine physical talent and a win is a win.
I guess the Auburn Tigers are for real after all, eh? They destroyed Tennessee by 28 points. (Keep in mind that, as inconsistent as the Vols have been all year, their worst loss prior to this was by 6 at Miami (Ohio).) They've got a nice fast break, a decent big man in the middle (7-0 Mamadou N'diaye), a 'tweener scoring machine (6-7 JuCo Chris Porter) and a balanced attack (5 players were in double figures against the Vols and three players had double-doubles). Remember the lesson from last year: Utah and Stanford went a long way into the season undefeated but were undervalued based on their "weak strength of schedule". What happened? They both made the Final Four. A lot of the time what matters most is how well you have your own act together moreso than whom you've played. This may be one of those teams (as we're now finding out).
Meanwhile, Arizona failed in its first test against a legit opponent on the road at UCLA, but not too badly. Jason Terry and A.J. Bramlett scored well as did freshman Michael Wright. Baron Davis starred for the Bruins so they may be turning a corner.
Tip your hat to the Princeton Tigers for winning the RAINBOW CLASSIC out in Hawaii. Yeah, the three teams they beat (Florida State, Texas and UNC-Charlotte) aren't Top 25 calibre. To gain some perspective, though, imagine Princeton beating those same three teams in football. It's quite an accomplishment for an Ivy League school to win one of the major Christmas tournament titles. The games were all end-plays, but with their style, Princeton's games are always going to be close. This is a young team (with a freshman playing the crucial point-center position) and while they opened up 10-point leads in all three games, they quickly gave the leads back. By the time the regular season is over, these youngsters may well have learned how to sustain their effort for a full 40 minutes. If so, they could well make some noise in the tournament again this year.
Because of the depth of the league this year, the Big 10 teams will likely dominate the Top 25 throughout the regular season. The reason is that there'll always be another highly rated opponent on their schedule the next time out so they'll build themselves up off of each other's reputation. A team like Creighton won't get the chance to make the same impression on the national consciousness. (But remember: the Bluejays won at Iowa, and Indiana didn't.) But also give credit where credit is due. These Big 10 teams earned their way into the rankings independently with impressive nonconference wins in the preseason (whereas a team like Clemson doesn't really have a win to justify its Top 25 status.)
Stanford seems to have picked up its offensive game a bit on the perimeter and in transition. If they're really right, they won't stumble against Oregon or California this week. Wisconsin got off to an 0-2 start in conference and it only gets tougher: this week they host Michigan State and then Purdue. Ouch. New Mexico and Fresno State may be the two best WAC teams at the moment, but neither has enough muscle underneath to be national contenders. Still, they meet Monday night in a key early conference matchup. Oregon gets its chance to enter the national conversation if it can gain a split against Stanford and UCLA.
Key games this week:
Monday: Oregon@Stanford,
New Mexico@Fresno St,
Wednesday: DePaul@Cincinnati,
Michigan St@Wisconsin,
Arkansas@Auburn,
Saturday: California@Stanford,
UCLA@Oregon,
Indiana@Ohio St,
Washington@Arizona,
Sunday: Purdue@Wisconsin,
Louisville@S Florida,
Creighton@SW Missouri St,
Georgia@Florida.
Muddy Waters
The biggest problem is the Big 10. With eleven teams in the league, they don't play a full home-and-home schedule against all of the other teams so even the final regular season standings will be skewed by the fortunes of scheduling. So far, except maybe for the margin of victory, the only true upset has been Ohio State's OT win at Wisconsin (and Minnesota's home loss to Northwestern). In just about every other case, tough teams won at home. That's not much to go on at this point. (Wisconsin's two home wins this past week against Michigan State and Purdue are nice to already have under their belt, though.) The regular season title may well depend on which teams can break through on the road at places like Indiana, Minnesota and Michigan.
At least the Pac-10 plays a full home-and-home schedule among all of its teams. (Then again, here's a league that you really wish had a conference tournament 'cause the one in Chicago is going to be dynamite.) Stanford's depth and versatility continue to be a strong suit. It's nice to be able to hit from the outside when the inside game isn't working (as in their win over California). UCLA's talent is impressive individually, but their results as a team haven't been overwhelming so far inside the league.
Florida beat back the Georgia Bulldogs at home for their first quality win. Their two losses were 30-point pastings, but they were at Duke and at Kentucky so it was tough to get a read on the Gators' true value. They run at all costs, so they're another one of those gimmick-style teams, but this was a real win against real talent. For their reward, they get to travel to Auburn on Saturday.
Maryland can keep its slim hopes for the regular season ACC title alive with a win at North Carolina on Wednesday. Iowa's under the gun this week in the Big 10 with road games at Ohio State and Minnesota. UCLA has two "must win" home games coming up this week against Stanford and California ... and I don't think they're ready for those games to come so soon. Tennessee seems to be playing more focused ball, but probably not well enough to win at Kentucky on Tuesday, but we'll see. I might finally start to come around on Arizona if they can win Saturday in The Pit at New Mexico.
Key games this week:
Tuesday: Tennessee@Kentucky,
Iowa@Ohio St,
Wednesday: Maryland@N Carolina,
Minnesota@Michigan St,
Thursday: California@UCLA,
Saturday: Stanford@UCLA,
Florida@Auburn,
Indiana@Purdue,
Iowa@Minnesota,
Arizona@New Mexico,
Rhode Island@Temple.
John Thompson
But Thompson is even more important as a historical figure socially than for his specific coaching achievements. As the first black head coach to win the national championship, he served as a hero and role model to many. Not to me, though. People aren't heroes to me for being black. That's the wrong way to look at things, from my perspective. But he was important to people who wanted to use him as "proof" against the Al Campanis mentality that blacks didn't have "the necessities" to succeed as coaches. My own approach has been not to stoop to the level of such thinking and try to "prove" something to people in their own invalid terms. To my mind, there was nothing to prove in the first place. Still, Thompson's breakthrough and his leadership certainly helped paved the way for the hiring of plenty of black head coaches to follow. Men's college basketball now has a good record with respect to other professions with the opportunities it has provided. It was less and less of a big deal when Nolan Richardson (Arkansas) won in '94 and when Tubby Smith (Kentucky) won in '98. Coaches like Smith and Rob Evans (formerly at Mississippi) have succeeded in some of the previously most unlikely of places while the likes of Randy Ayers (Ohio State) and Ricky Byrdsong (Northwestern) came and went. All of those are healthy signs.
The "Hoya Paranoia" of the Ewing days -- having the team stay secluded and away from the media during the NCAA tournament -- was certainly an extension of Thompson's gruff and slow-to-trust public image. Keeping Ewing away from the media at the beginning of his freshman year may have been good for him as a person internally, but it also allowed a certain dehumanized perception of him to foster in the public eye. "The Beast From The East" was a slogan I could have done without.
Coaches like Richardson and John Cheney (Temple) project similar stern exteriors while the joviality of a George Raveling (formerly at USC) borders on coming across as buffoonish. At the time, I viewed them as necessary transitional figures. Their bitterness was born of the harder times they'd faced as compared to their players. I thought of a guy like Magic Johnson, with his joyful personality, as representing a new era in which blacks and whites would be able to put race behind them. But it turned out that there was only a small window in the '70s in which blacks and whites both viewed integration in purely positive terms. Now the Reagan era spin of "reverse discrimination" completely dominates the discussion of Affirmative Action (rather than trying to combat the Al Campanis mindset) and we have court cases in the South where historically black state universities, having sued for equal government grants as compared with their majority-white counterparts, are resisting their court "victories" because they're being told by the courts that the condition for equality is forced integration that will end their majority-black status. We're no longer on the same page (if we ever were).
Thompson said in his news conference that someone told him, "You wear your blackness well," which he thought was a particularly good compliment. To me, that's like telling someone, "You're really good at being white" or "She's a really good lesbian" (which, hopefully, are more obviously ridiculous statements). We really have to get away from seeing each other (and ourselves) as representatives of one group or another and deal with each other as individuals. And you have to learn not to accept society's attempt to place a label on you and tell you how you're supposed to behave because of the category it has decided to put you in.
I thought Magic Johnson came about as close as anybody black has so far to being perceived as "The All-American Boy". Traditionally, that phrase makes you think of somebody white, but Magic almost fit the bill. He was talented, a winner, and exceedingly likeable as a person. But the luster came off of his image when he contracted HIV through "sexual promiscuity". Heroes like Michael Jordan (and, for example, Herschel Walker) don't really fit what I mean. Jordan strives to be a perfect role model (and advertizing pitchman) by projecting nothing potentially offensive ... by projecting nothing that comes across as an individual personality or opinion. (Can you imagine what kind of effect Jordan might have had if he'd turned his grief over his father's death into activism against violent crime?) Guys like David Robinson and Grant Hill are pleasant enough, but neither of them has the actively social personality of Magic. And someone like Arthur Ashe didn't become sanctified until after he'd contracted AIDS "through no fault of his own". We really don't have the sort of media-friendly, affable black head coach that would represent an advance past the John Thompson mold. Maybe someone like Kelvin Sampson (Oklahoma) or even Clyde Drexler (Houston) can fill those shoes. But give Thompson credit for voicing his opinions, whether or not they were popular things that people wanted to hear.
One criticism of Thompson has been that, as the years went by, he didn't recruit white players. Part of that is unfair. It was mostly due to what an icon the Georgetown program became in the black community as a result of the Ewing era that it became a particular Mecca for black athletes. While Washington, DC proper is an overwhelmingly black city, the greater metropolitan area certainly has a strong international flavor. There's no particular reason Thompson shouldn't have been able to recruit white international players to come to Georgetown the way Mike Jarvis was able to do down the street at George Washington. Thompson's international recruits (like Mutombo) were black as well. His assistant coach (and new Georgetown head coach), Craig Esherick, was white, but at some point you have to say that the players Thompson recruited do reflect his internal choices. (For example, I've always been one to tell people to look in their own personal address books and explain to themselves why the racial makeup therein is what it is.)
That said, John Thompson was certainly always about putting life ahead of basketball as a priority and his resignation to deal with his personal life is a reflection of that very principle. His players graduated and his program won its share of games. That's what you want a coach to do.
Thanks, John.
"What were you doing hanging around them in the first place?"
Out West, Arizona couldn't hold onto a 15-point halftime lead at home against New Mexico. (It's a joke. The game was actually at The Pit in Albuquerque.) Michael Wright laid waste to the Lobos' front line with 17 rebounds (9 offensive), but a frantic second-half NM comeback finished with Damion Walker's buzzer-beater. The Wildcats have a talented starting five, but they just haven't shown the ability to separate themselves from good teams and finish the job. It may seem like quibbling since they're 12-2 and 4-1 in the tough Pac-10, but somehow the whole is less than the sum of the parts with this team. I'd rather see you win big and lose big than play close games every time out. That will catch up to you come tournament time, especially when you're a name team that others will be gunning for to pull off an upset. (Plus, apparently, I hate them.)
Stanford turned in its best performance of the season by winning at UCLA. 5 Bruins fouled out (including 4 up front) as the Cardinal shot 49 free throws to UCLA's 15. Maryland regrouped and impressively put away North Carolina on the road (despite Steve Francis' being held in check by the halfcourt style of play) with Obinna Ekezie coming through. Oklahoma stymied rival Oklahoma State on the road (before Cincinnati took out their anger on them). Indiana stopped the bleeding with a much-needed road win at Purdue. And the underachieving Tennessee Volunteers pulled Kentucky down to their level with an ugly one-point win at Rupp Arena. So the past week gave us some of the best road performances of the season. Here's a list of the season's best road wins so far:
6-10 Vasco Evtimov is now eligible at North Carolina. Ron Curry is getting more minutes, but still hasn't switched over his mindset fully to basketball. Give the Tar Heels another couple of weeks and check back in. Sam Okey probably won't play much for Iowa Thursday at Michigan State, but you can bet he'll see time against his former team when the Hawkeyes host Wisconsin on Saturday. Tennessee will try to build on last week's big win when it hosts Georgia and travels to Florida. A sweep could be a turning point in their season. Clemson started 11-1 and then went 1-5. No rest for the weary: they host Duke and Maryland this week. Things will start to shake out this week in the middle of the Pac-10 when Oregon hosts Arizona and Washington visits California.
Two leagues have their best games of the season coming up this week: In the SEC, Auburn goes to Kentucky on Wednesday in their only meeting this year. In Conference USA, Cincinnati travels to Louisville on Thursday in what will likely be a macho dunk-a-thon. Three key non-conference games are also on tap on the weekend: On Saturday, Louisville hosts UCLA and Providence visits Arkansas. On Sunday, Duke goes to St. John's.
Key games this week:
Tuesday: Purdue@Ohio St,
Wednesday: Auburn@Kentucky,
St John's@Providence,
Georgia@Tennessee,
Thursday: Cincinnati@Louisville,
Iowa@Michigan St,
Arizona@Oregon, Washington@California,
Saturday: Washington@Stanford,
UCLA@Louisville,
Wisconsin@Iowa,
Minnesota@Ohio St,
Tennessee@Florida,
Miami (Ohio)@Marshall,
Providence@Arkansas,
Sunday: Duke@St John's,
Michigan St@Indiana.
Done Underneath
Wisconsin crushed Iowa on the road with solid defense. They're only getting better offensively, too. Michigan State swarmed to two victories behind a flurry of catch-and-shoot baskets assisted by Mateen Cleaves. St. John's gave Duke all it wanted before losing in overtime in the best game of the year. (Only Chris Carrawell's versatility substituting as a playmaker with William Avery and Trajan Langdon in foul trouble saved the Blue Devil's from Bootsy Thornton's 40 points and Ron Artest's all-out effort.) Ohio State's Scoonie Penn and Michael Redd may be the most potent backcourt in the nation. They crushed two erstwhile Big 10 powers at home. UCLA followed Cincinnati's lead in blowing past Louisville on the road. The Miami (Florida) Hurricanes nearly upset Connecticut while the Florida Gators sent Tennessee packing. We could be headed for one of the strongest Sweet 16's ever. There are a lot of teams this year who can get on a mission that could take them through to the Final Four and all the way to the national championship (no matter what elite team stands in their way).
From 21-25, though, it's the usual revolving door. Cutting the list down to a Top 20 would probably be more useful. None of the bottom four ranked teams this week (Utah, Xavier, College of Charleston and Murray State) has earned its way into the rankings the traditional way (i.e., by knocking off a Top-25 opponent in the past week). Rather, they all make it in riding long win streaks against weak in-conference competition while other candidates are struggling with inconsistent efforts (albeit against better competition).
Sunday's bloodbath with Duke was just the beginning for St. John's. It's the Week of Decision for the Red Storm with a road game at Syracuse on Wednesday and the Big East's Game of the Year at home against Connecticut on Saturday. While it's not quite the game of the year in the Big 10 -- there are too many good teams at the top for any one game to be decisive -- Ohio State travels to Michigan State on Wednesday. They're the last pair of the league's leading teams who have yet to meet. (I'll take the Spartans at home.) The talk in the Pac-10 now is that Stanford will go undefeated in-conference. That'd be quite an accomplishment with as much depth as that league has. We'll see if Arizona can play yet another opponent down to the wire when the Cardinal come to visit on Thursday. North Carolina is showing signs of taking it up a notch, but it likely won't happen soon enough for them to win at Duke on Wednesday.
Key games this week:
Monday: Fresno St@Utah,
Texas@Oklahoma,
Tuesday: Kentucky@Georgia,
Wednesday: N Carolina@Duke,
Ohio St@Michigan St,
St John's@Syracuse,
Kansas@Nebraska,
Thursday: Stanford@Arizona,
Xavier@Cincinnati,
Bowling Green@Miami-OH,
Saturday: Connecticut@St John's,
Minnesota@Wisconsin,
Auburn@Georgia,
California@Arizona,
Col of Charleston@Davidson,
Sunday: UCLA@Washington.
Time To Bring It On Home
Arizona ruined Stanford's bid to go undefeated in the Pac-10. But the good news for the Wildcats wasn't their two-point end-play home win over the Cardinal. It's that they finally were able to put away a decent team when they beat California the next time out by 17. Having your point guard lead you in scoring isn't the optimal formula, but who'd you rather have bringing up the ball at the end of a close game than Jason Terry? Washington is showing signs of making a closing run to get back in the NCAA tournament. Cal, on the other hand, has yet to beat even one of the power teams in conference.
Auburn's lone loss was at Kentucky (in a game in Lexington in which the Wildcats couldn't really put them away). Both squads are running away with their respective division titles and seem headed for an inevitable showdown in the SEC conference tournament final. Tennessee still can't decide if it's great or merely good. Florida has started to fall back down to earth a bit after having to go on the road. Arkansas and Mississippi both need the second half of the regular season to build momentum on up-and-down seasons so far. The Georgia Bulldogs just can't seem to get it together, even with one of the best individual talents (Jumaine Jones) in the country.
Connecticut and St. John's are national contenders and should meet one more time in the Big East tournament final. The Red Storm have now played Duke, UConn and Stanford to the wire in Madison Square Garden with no win to show for it. (Here's a team likely to break through come tournament time after "hiding" under the shadow of a higher-profile juggernaut in the same conference. Ditto for Auburn). Miami (Florida) and Rutgers have become good enough to be worrisome road stops in the league. Syracuse belongs in the Big 12 the way it can't establish any rhythm at home or away.
In the ACC, Duke's been as good as advertized. An undefeated conference season is looking more likely every day. Maryland took a giant step down with its terrible performance at Wake Forest. It's not the loss -- the Demon Deacons gave the Blue Devils a tough game at home, too -- it's the fact that the Terps were down big and showed no ability to take control of the game and fight their way back. They've knocked themselves out of #1-seed status and there may not be enough time left in the season to regain it. If Jason Capel stays sick a little while longer, it might be enough time for Ron Curry and Vasco Evtimov to come around and make North Carolina a real contender before the season's done. When he returns, though, it'll throw off the rotation -- they're more athletic without Capel -- and Carolina's best five (Cota, Okulaja, Haywood, Evtimov and Curry) may not get the time it needs to gel offensively.
The MAC Wars have been hard fought. Miami (Ohio) has come through pretty well, but they haven't faced the toughest teams as yet. (This week is big for them as they host Toledo and Ohio University on Monday and Wednesday, respectively.) They haven't established themselves as the class of the league just yet, but the quality of play there is high enough that someone out of that conference deserves to be ranked. Until proven otherwise, it's the RedHawks.
Cincinnati has waltzed through Conference USA as might have been expected. Louisville is on a downhill slide that may not turn around with no postseason incentive to motivate them. DePaul showed promise early but, alas, the freshman have played like freshman.
The Big 12 can't seem to sort itself out. Several teams are still in the thick of the title chase, but it's deceiving. Unlike the Big 10, the MAC or the MVC -- where the better teams are all tough at home -- in the Big 12, the top teams are losing at home. That's not what you want to see. Right now, it's Texas (with Rick Barnes' cheap shot mentality having come with him from Clemson) that's on top. Missouri seems to be emerging, but check back in a week and expect to see someone else at the top of the standings. No one in that league is playing rankable ball right now.
In the MVC, four teams (SW Missouri State, Evansville, Creighton and Bradley) are battling it out at the top. The regular season champ may well not win the conference tournament, but whichever team emerges should be a solid NCAA contender.
Utah is the class of the WAC. Andre Miller looked like an NBA player slumming it with college boys against Fresno State the other night. (Get a load of this line score: 17 points, 14 assists, 7 steals and 6 rebounds). No one else in the league is much more than hype.
The Atlantic 10 teams haven't gotten any better now that they've entered league play. Don't be fooled by their improved records. Temple and Xavier still aren't capable of making much noise outside the conference. (In fact, Rhode Island actually has a chance to resurrect its season this week with "big" conference games against Massachusetts and Temple.)
Elsewhere, Gonzaga is quietly whipping its lesser leaguemates in the WCC like a good team should. The College of Charleston moved "up" to the Southern Conference this year, but hasn't skipped a beat as they've rolled through undefeated (but the soft competition may not be a good thing). Murray State is undefeated in the OVC, but SE Missouri State is close on their heels. It's not a tough league, but at least they haven't stumbled. In the Ivy League, 6-0 Dartmouth can upset the fruit cart this week when it travels to 4-0 Pennsylvania and 4-0 Princeton. A split could put them on their way to breaking through the stranglehold those two teams have had on the league title for many years.
The last big intersectional juggernaut matchup happens on Saturday when Connecticut visits Stanford. The Cardinal are still vulnerable to perimeter quickness (as they showed in their loss at Arizona), but the homecourt (especially with that trampoline floor) advantage should be enough to make up the difference. Maryland can kiss their top-seed hopes goodbye if they don't win at Duke on Wednesday. Expect the rematch of Michigan State and Iowa on Saturday to be just as entertaining a track meet as the first time around.
Key games this week:
Monday: Syracuse@Connecticut,
Toledo@Miami-OH,
New Mexico@Utah,
Tuesday: Tennessee@Arkansas,
Wednesday: Maryland@,
Stanford@California,
Wisconsin@Indiana,
Miami-FL@St John's,
Ohio U@Miami-OH,
Thursday: Kentucky@Florida,
Arizona@Washington,
Friday: Dartmouth@Pennsylvania,
Saturday: Connecticut@Stanford,
Michigan State@Iowa,
Mississippi@Florida,
Oklahoma St@Oklahoma,
Temple@Rhode Island,
Dartmouth@Princeton.
The Forest Or The Trees
Connecticut lost for the first time last week -- badly -- at home to Syracuse. Two starters (All-America Richard Hamilton and center Jake Voskuhl) didn't play, so you can overlook the loss and even claim it's a good thing in that it relieves the pressure of trying to go undefeated. Then, again, they lost by 17 points (and only scored 42). That reveals how thin they are at those key spots (which could be worrisome if foul trouble arises in the tournament). But then they travelled to Stanford (again, with Hamilton not in the lineup and with Voskuhl not 100%) and won by 11. Are they that good and is Stanford that bad that they couldn't even beat them not at full strength? Maybe, but the bigger point is the stylistic matchup. Stanford had the same problem last year with vulnerability to quickness on the perimeter. They have the same roster as a year ago -- and, remember that they were only a foul call away from losing to Rhode Island in the Regional Final last year -- and that same vulnerability exists. Arizona's scoring point guard, Jason Terry, was able to exploit the same thing the previous week that Khalid El-Amin did this past week. The Cardinal have fallen from #1-seed status now themselves. They'll need a favorable draw (and more luck, like last year) to get back to the Final Four.
After losing its first conference game on the road at Wisconsin, Michigan State has now won 9 straight games in the toughest league in the nation. They could probably do without having to play in the Big 10 conference tournament. That can only deflate their momentum (and knock them out of a chance at a #1-seed) at this point if they suffer an upset. In the meantime, it's hard to find fault with anything Auburn has done all year long. St. John's lost at home to Miami (Florida) (giving the Hurricanes the season sweep), but it was a well played game by both teams. With everyone else floundering around them, the Red Storm actually moves up three spots in a week with a loss.
The wheels are coming apart at Maryland. They didn't have much of a shot to win the game at Duke, but when Shane Battier scores a career-high 27 points on you, you're not paying attention. On the other hand, Clemson's win over North Carolina (with Ed Cota not at full strength) is the kind of late-season anomaly you can overlook. The Tigers are out of the NCAA tournament at this point so they have to give it all they've got at this point. Carolina is still trying to tweak its rotation (and bounced back well against Florida State). Saturday's game pitting Maryland against UNC could be a turning point for one of those teams when we look back on the season.
Miami (Ohio) had a strong week and took permanent control of the MAC regular season race. They might be headed for as high as a #5-seed in the NCAAs if they can win their conference tournament. (But might they be better off sneaking in with a lower seed and pulling off a big "surprise"?) Utah continues to show itself to be the most intelligent team in the country. They don't beat themselves, they let others self-destruct. Mississippi is another team that is surging at the end of the year with a solid win at Florida (although following it up with a win at Auburn this week is too much to ask). Lo and behold: the Washington Huskies, who were floundering at 7-6 on the 9th of January have gone 7-1 since then (inside the second-best conference in the nation) and now stand a month later at 14-7 with home wins over UCLA and Arizona. They're actually a better team without 7' center Todd MacCulloch on the floor. With their tall backcourt and small forwards up front, they're the closest thing anybody this season has to putting an all-'tweener lineup out on the floor. Louisville is now eligible for postseason play this season so maybe they can breathe some life back into their efforts on court.
Kentucky, Wisconsin and Iowa each lost twice last week. The Wildcats have more trouble with little teams than with big ones. The Badgers are solid defensively, but could use some easier baskets on offense. The Hawkeyes rotate so many players, it's hard for them to get consistent contributions night in and night out. You never know who's going to lead them from one game to the next. That's not good.
Stanford needs to win at home against UCLA on Thursday to avoid a permanent loss of confidence that could send their season in a tailspin. Iowa has two more tough home games on its plate this week against Minnesota and then Ohio State. Florida gets to test its mettle on the road at Tennessee and Georgia. (It's the alternate week, so the Vols are due to look good again.) Over in the Big 12, Texas has a big week with games at Oklahoma and at home against Oklahoma State. And in the Big West, New Mexico State gets its shot at the regular season crown with a home-and-home with Idaho and then a road game at Boise State.
Key games this week:
Monday: Miami-FL@Syracuse,
Idaho@New Mexico St,
Tuesday: Mississippi@Auburn,
Purdue@Indiana,
Wednesday: Minnesota@Iowa,
Florida@Tennessee,
Oklahoma@Texas,
Nebraska@Kansas,
Thursday: UCLA@Stanford,
St Mary's@Gonzaga,
SE Missouri St@Murray St,
Louisville@UNC-Charlotte,
New Mexico St@Idaho,
Detroit@Butler,
Saturday: Michigan St@Minnesota,
Villanova@St John's,
N Carolina@Maryland,
Ohio St@Iowa,
UCLA@California,
Florida@Georgia,
Washington@Oregon,
Fresno St@New Mexico,
Sunday: Texas@Oklahoma St,
Temple@Xavier.
Peaking Or The Slow Build
So maybe it's a good thing that Cincinnati and Stanford are stumbling now against teams that shouldn't be able to hang close to them rather than have those hiccups appear as upsets in the NCAA Tournament. And maybe it's not so good for Michigan State to be playing this well in February (rather than March). Teams like Louisville, Miami (Florida), SW Missouri State in the MVC and even Boise State in the Big West may be slowly building their momentum at just the right time to sweep into tournament play on a roll.
Auburn's continued destruction of the good-but-not-great teams in the SEC looks like it has locked up a #1-seed for the Tigers. They've only played one Top 15-calibre team all season (Kentucky) and they lost that game. But remember that the regular season juggernauts often don't even make it to the Final Four -- Arizona and Duke didn't last year -- so often what's more important is how well you put away good teams rather than whether you can beat the great ones. That's good news for teams like Michigan State, St. John's, Maryland, Utah, Miami (Ohio) and Gonzaga and bad news for the likes of Cincinnati, Kentucky, Stanford, North Carolina and Tennessee.
Princeton won one of the strangest games last week against league-leading arch rival Pennsylvania on the road (and make no mistake, The Cathedral of College Basketball is The Palestra in Philadelphia, not Madison Square Garden in New York). After Princeton scored first for a 3-0 lead, Penn went on a 29-0 run and led 33-9 at the half. The Tigers still trailed by 27 points with 13 minutes left before coming all the way back to win 50-49. But for all of that great effort, they likely blew their whole season by losing to bottom-feeders Yale (4-18/2-8) over the weekend. Now they have no margin for error if they want to make it back to the NCAAs. They could likely get an 8- or 9-seed if they make it (they won the RAINBOW CLASSIC in December, beating Big 12 leaders Texas along the way and also beat Conference USA contenders UNC-Charlotte and UAB). If not, they'll likely be one of the favorites to win the NIT.
Connecticut (hosting Rutgers and Miami (Florida)), Cincinnati (hosting UNC-Charlotte and Louisville) and Stanford (at Washington) could all use some convincing victories to restore their reputations as juggernauts. Each has been less than stellar lately. Meanwhile, Washington (hosting Stanford and California) and Arkansas (at Florida and hosting Kentucky) need to build some momentum and keep it. Not that it matters much, but you just wish someone would seize complete control of the Big 12 race.
Key games this week:
Monday: Oklahoma@Missouri,
Tuesday: Rutgers@Connecticut,
Purdue@Michigan St,
Arkansas@Florida,
Wednesday: UNC-Charlotte@Cincinnati,
Ohio St@Indiana,
Miami-OH@Toledo,
Tennessee@Mississippi,
Oklahoma St@Nebraska,
Thursday: Stanford@Washington,
Friday: Princeton@Dartmouth,
Saturday: Miami-FL@Connecticut,
Wisconsin@Michigan St,
Kentucky@Arkansas,
Utah@Fresno St,
California@Washington,
Missouri@Oklahoma St,
Kansas@Oklahoma,
George Washington@Temple,
UTEP@New Mexico,
Sunday: Louisville@Cincinnati,
Syracuse@UCLA.
The Name Brand Or The Generic
Stanford and Cincinnati both rose to the occasion in tough games they knew were coming (against Washington, and UNC-Charlotte and Louisville, respectively). But it's the unexpectedly tough games that are still the problem for both squads. They don't come with the same intensity every time out like other squads (for example, the surging Miami (Florida) Hurricanes). Teams are getting their acts together for the postseason. The Top 15 or so teams all are playing solid ball right now. Temple makes it back into the Top 25 based on re-establishing consistency (against weak Atlantic 10 opponents) as does New Mexico. I don't really think that highly of the Lobos, but their won-loss record is comparable to Utah's (against the same competition) and, more to the point, no one in the Big 12 seems to be able to step forward and say "This league is mine." (That will, however, make for one of the better conference tournaments in the whole country.)
Would you rather head into the NCAA Tournament this year with the name "North Carolina", "Indiana" or "Kansas" on your chest, or "Miami (Florida)", "Miami (Ohio)" or "Gonzaga"? This isn't the best year to be some of the traditional powers. That "name brand" only makes your opponent get up even more to play you and these squads, in particular, can be had. But who's going to see "Miami (Florida)" coming at them and fully realize how tough a game they're in for? Gonzaga has barely gotten a mention all season long in the national polls, but I'll go with the "generic", thank you. (Wouldn't you love to be Auburn or St. John's and see an overseeded UNC, IU or KU team in your section of the draw?)
Duke's bid for the first 16-0 regular season in the ACC gets its final test in Chapel Hill against North Carolina on Saturday night. The Tar Heels played them well in Durham ealier, but have regressed since then. Even if they do muster enough emotion to pull of the upset -- they won't, mind you -- their long-term problems won't be cured by one big win. Arizona at Stanford (Saturday) and UCLA at Washington (Sunday) are the showcase games in the Pac-10. (Those games will have to do for bragging rights since there's no conference tournament.) Kentucky has been vulnerable on the road in the SEC and they get one last test at Tennessee on Sunday. Thanks to a previous postponement, Purdue and Minnesota get a back-to-back home-and-home series on Tuesday and Thursday (and the Boilermakers get to host Michigan State on Sunday as well). Wisconsin's fortunes are slipping. Solid halfcourt defense can serve you well during conference play but you also need a potent offense to bail you out in the frenzy of a tournament. They get a chance to improve their NCAA seeding when they visit Ohio State on Wednesday. Arkansas tries to pull off the double (after beating Kentucky last week) when it hosts Auburn on Wednesday. (Don't hold your breath, though.)
ESPN's "Championship Week" isn't until next week, but a few of the "generic" conferences get going this week and will be worth watching (even before the final). Miami (Ohio) is the best team in the MAC but they're not out of reach of the other top teams (Toledo, Kent, Ohio U) and the tourney is on Toledo's home floor. No one in the WCC should be able to upset Gonzaga. The College of Charleston has yet to lose in this their first year in the Southern Conference. Taking the tournament title to boot would be a rare accomplishment for a first-time member in any league. (Has it ever been done?) The top MVC teams (SW Missouri State, Evansville, Bradley and Creighton) couldn't settle decisively which one was the best during the regular season so the conference tournament should be very competitive (and it's a good quality of basketball being played as well). Murray State shouldn't have any trouble in the OVC tournament, but look to see whether they get pushed around under the boards.
Hope you caught the made-for-TV movie Passing Glory on TNT on Sunday. It's a dramatization of the true story of two undefeated high school teams (one black, one white) in New Orleans in 1965 who weren't officially allowed to play each other due to segregation but arranged a private game to determine the real city champs. It's pretty good. It does still suffer from the usual "Northerner as Savior" motif of most movies about race relations in the 60s, but at least this time the leading man driving the action of the story towards justice is black (Andre Braugher) instead of white. (But I'm still waiting for one where "white Southerner with a heavy accent" isn't used as movie shorthand for "racist".) It was produced by Magic Johnson and directed by Steve James (who did Hoop Dreams; even one of the kids from Hoop Dreams, Arthur Agee, has a bit part).
Key games this week:
Monday: Oklahoma St@Kansas,
Tuesday: Minnesota@Purdue,
Wednesday: Duke@DePaul,
Auburn@Arkansas,
Wisconsin@Ohio St,
Kent@Miami-OH,
Thursday: Purdue@Minnesota,
Saturday: Duke@N Carolina,
Arizona@Stanford,
Rutgers@Miami-FL,
New Mexico@Utah,
Xavier@George Washington,
Sunday: Michigan St@Purdue,
Connecticut@Syracuse,
Kentucky@Tennessee,
Washington@UCLA,
Iowa@Indiana.
OHIO VALLEY CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
(Wednesday, Saturday-Sunday: Murray St),
SOUTHERN CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
(Thursday-Sunday: Col of Charleston),
MISSOURI VALLEY CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
(Friday-Monday week: SW Missouri St, Bradley, Evansville, Creighton),
WEST COAST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
(Saturday-Monday week: Gonzaga),
MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
(Saturday, Tuesday-Wednesday week: Miami-OH, Toledo, Kent, Ohio U).
Everybody Come Dancing
It was enough, however, for Arkansas to pull off the upset rout of previously untouchable Auburn. Don't read too much into that outcome, though. How many teams will try to outrun the Tigers when they face them in postseason play? (Still, as far as the regular season goes, Auburn's scariest victories were all in front of a hostile home crowd.)
Stanford turned in another impressive performance in what it knew was a big game, beating back Arizona at home to clinch the Pac-10 title. The deep front line wore down the Wildcats and the perimeter game clicked early to enable them to get a working margin throughout the game. (Now if only they'll look this good in "meaningless" games this week, too.) Arizona has come up short on the road against the Big Boys in conference all year.
Tennessee has turned in solid performances for the third straight week. (Is it possible they've turned a corner from their Jekyll-and-Hyde personality earlier this year?) Their individual talent stood them in good stead offensively and defensively in their win over Kentucky. They're playing a lot smarter for longer stretches during games now. The Wildcats, on the other hand, have lost 4 straight road games in the SEC and haven't been impressive on the road all season long, really. That's not a good omen for postseason play (except that, for UK, neutral sites are more like home games than road games, anyway).
The College of Charleston wrapped up its undefeated run through the Southern Conference in impressive fashion. They trailed Appalachian State for much of the title game before taking it up another notch and swarming to victory. This is a deep, senior-laden team that's riding a 25-game winning streak now. They know what they're doing.
After opening Big 10 play with a 15-point home win over Michigan State (after which, the Spartans never lost again, mind you), Wisconsin surged through the first half of conference play. But they have tumbled steadily since then. Their strong halfcourt D is still in tact, but they are struggling more and more on offense (witness their 39-point effort at home in a loss to Michigan over the weekend). The Badgers are headed in the wrong direction.
Except for two immature losses that immediately followed their two biggest road wins in conference (at Pennsylvania and at Dartmouth), Princeton would have been in the Top 25 before now. Like Stanford, they rise to the big occasion but stumble when they're not paying attention. They trail Penn by one game in the standings and won the first meeting in Philadelphia. Yet, because the Ivy League doesn't use head-to-head records as a tiebreaker, the Tigers not only have to beat the Quakers at home on Tuesday just to tie them for the regular season crown, they'll also have to beat Penn for a third time this year in a special playoff on Saturday in order to get the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. It says here they can handle the challenge when they're fully focused on the task at hand.
The only other regular season game left worth paying attention to is UCLA at Arizona on Saturday. The Bruins are well suited to postseason play, so take note as they are getting better and better at the right time (despite losing center Dan Gadzuric for the season with a knee injury).
Conference tournament play is here. So far, the strongest teams from the generic conferences have come through to win (meaning more of the at-large spots will go to also-rans in the name brand conferences). The NCAA Tournament should have one of its strongest fields ever, it looks like. Don't expect many Cinderellas in this year's Sweet 16. Everybody can play this year.
Key games this week:
Monday: WCC FINAL (Gonzaga@Santa Clara),
MVC FINAL (Evansville-Creighton),
Tuesday: MCC FINAL (Detroit-Butler),
Pennsylvania@Princeton,
Wednesday: MAC FINAL,
Saturday: BIG EAST FINAL, C-USA FINAL, WAC FINAL, IVY LEAGUE PLAYOFF (if necessary:
Princeton-Pennsylvania), A-10 FINAL,
UCLA@Arizona,
Sunday: ACC FINAL, BIG 10 FINAL, SEC FINAL, BIG 12 FINAL, BIG WEST FINAL.
WEST COAST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT FINAL
(Monday: Gonzaga@Santa Clara),
MISSOURI VALLEY CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT FINAL
(Monday: Evansville-Creighton),
MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
(Tuesday-Wednesday: Miami-OH, Kent, Ohio U),
MIDWESTERN COLLEGIATE CONFERENCE FINAL
(Tuesday: Detroit-Butler),
WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
(Tuesday, Thursday-Saturday: Utah,
Fresno St, New Mexico,
UNLV, TCU),
BIG EAST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
(Wednesday-Saturday: Connecticut,
St John's,
Miami-FL, Syracuse,
Villanova, Rutgers),
CONFERENCE USA TOURNAMENT
(Wednesday-Saturday: Cincinnati,
Louisville, UNC-Charlotte, UAB, DePaul),
ATLANTIC 10 CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
(Wednesday-Saturday: Temple, George Washington,
Xavier, Rhode Island, Massachusetts),
ACC TOURNAMENT
(Thursday-Sunday: Duke,
Maryland, N Carolina,
Wake Forest, Georgia Tech),
BIG 10 CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
(Thursday-Sunday: Michigan St,
Ohio St, Indiana,
Iowa, Wisconsin,
Minnesota, Purdue),
SEC TOURNAMENT
(Thursday-Sunday: Auburn,
Kentucky, Tennessee,
Florida, Arkansas,
Mississippi, Georgia),
BIG 12 CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
(Thursday-Sunday: Texas, Missouri, Kansas,
Oklahoma, Oklahoma St,
Nebraska),
BIG WEST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
(Friday-Sunday: Boise St, Idaho, New Mexico St, Utah St),
IVY LEAGUE PLAYOFF (if necessary)
(Saturday: Princeton-Pennsylvania),
NCAA TOURNAMENT BRACKET SELECTION
(Sunday).
KC is OK
The Big 10 certainly deserved 7 teams. 6 for the SEC is OK, too. But no way did the Big 12 deserve 5 when the Pac-10 only got 4. The Big 12 teams benefitted from their indistinguishable mediocrity. ("If one's good enough, why not the other one?") The quality of play in the WAC didn't merit 3 teams. Out Tulsa. The Big East had great competition so Villanova profitted from strength of schedule (that provided them the opportunity to beat St. John's at home late in the season). But I'd have much rather seen a third team from the MAC (i.e., Toledo) get in. The MVC deserved its 3 spots. Lookout for any or all three of those teams (Creighton, Evansville and SW Missouri State) pull off first-round "upsets".
Only a couple of squabbles with the seeding: the College of Charleston was screwed by getting only a #8 seed (and a date with Duke in the second round to boot). I don't know what coach John Kresse was so upbeat about in those remotes on the Tournament Selection shows. UNC-Charlotte moving all the way up to a #5 seed is a little suspect. Yes, they were the most impressive surprise winner of the major conference tournaments. But it's one thing to be able to beat Cincinnati and Louisville in tournament play after you've already faced them twice each during the regular season (so that you're free from intimidation and are familiar with what works against them and what doesn't). It's quite another thing to pull off the same calibre results against such teams in a blind first-time meeting. I'm not sure the 49ers will be able to reproduce those results in the NCAA. Here's how deep the Midwest bracket is: New Mexico State (which beat Wisconsin and New Mexico this year) is a #14 seed. (They will not, however, beat Kentucky.)
I still can't stand the way, year-in and year-out, Duke or North Carolina gets to spend the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament playing in Charlotte or Greensboro. It's too unfair of an advantage. I don't have such a problem with rewarding the top seeds by allowing them to stay in their "natural" regions, but it seems to me that you could argue that Duke is a South Region team just as easily as an East Region team. I don't see how Connecticut did anything wrong to warrant their being moved out of the East. (And I'm not in favor of the collusive nature of coaches' making it known where they'd rather go. It's not fair for UConn to get its preferred wish to go West so that they won't be hounded by hometown hype. The point of keeping the top teams in their natural region is for the benefit of the fans, not the coaches. All of the teams should be treated the same.) Auburn looks good on paper, but they don't have a single elite win to compare to those other two teams and they laid an egg in their conference tournament. At the very least, I might have shipped the Tigers out West as the #1 seed or, more likely, I'd have let them stay at home in the South as the #2 seed opposite Duke.)
Duke showed you what depth really is: starter Trajan Langdon sits out the semi and the final of the ACC tournament and they still win the thing by the biggest average margin of victory (25 points) in history. Corey Maggette gets 24 one night, William Avery gets 29 the next. Ho hum. They're such a good team. (I just wish I liked them better. Too much individual talent for their style of play to appeal to me. Their talent erases all mistakes.)
I was able to attend the SEC tournament in person. Experience means so much. Tennessee put in a cameo appearance spending the entire quarterfinal against Mississippi State shooting ridiculous 3-pointers. Auburn came out before the semifinal against Kentucky dancing around on the floor as if they'd already won something (and as if they hadn't lost the first meeting with the Wildcats in Lexington). Kentucky took care of the ball and executed in the halfcourt. Starved of their regular staple of points off of turnovers, the Tigers didn't know what to do. They kept trying to "intimidate" the Wildcats with alley-oop plays (that misfired) while they behind 10 points. No, guys, when you're losing, you're not intimidating anybody. Arkansas made the final on senior savvy and poise under pressure. But against Kentucky in the final, it was obvious how easy they were to defend as long as you shadowed Pat Bradley from 3.
Maryland and St. John's got wake-up calls in their conference tournaments. Something about North Carolina's style of play is just more suited to tournament conditions. All of a sudden, they looked like the team that won the PRESEASON NIT again. (Similarly, Kentucky shook off the vulnerability it had seemed to display on the road in conference play and once again looked like the elite team from back in December. Don't forget how massively tall UK is on the court with 6-10 Magloire, 6-10 Bradley, 6-9 Padgett, 6-6 Evans and 6-2 Turner out on the floor at once. They just threw the ball over Auburn's press with ease and had Padgett feed the post for layup after layup with the threat of his 3-point shooting.) The Terrapins missed Obinna Ekezie against the Tar Heels. The Red Storm were shell-shocked by the intensity of Connecticut in the Big East final and never snapped out of it (even though they were playing in Madison Square Garden).
I hope you caught a glimpse of Gonzaga in the WCC final on Monday. They're talented, deep and intense (and they get to play the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament just over in Seattle, not to mention the huge chip on their shoulders from last year's NCAA snub). Stanford had better come with their "A" game in Round 2. Creighton and Evansville both looked good in their well played MVC final. Miami (Ohio) and Kent didn't look so good in the MAC title game. It was very apparent how easy the RedHawks are to defend. Wally Szczerbiak's the only guy you have to worry about. He's their tallest, most physical player and yet he's also their best 3-point shooter so he spends a lot of time on the perimeter so they're smallish and soft on the inside. Princeton deserved to be snubbed after their woeful 25-point loss at home to Penn with the Ivy League title on the line. Penn was able to muscle them inside the lane so there were no backdoor layups to be had. Without their bread and butter, the Tigers were forced to try to generate points off the dribble based on their individual skills. No one's going to mistake Chris Young for Elton Brand in the low post.
You have to like the potential later round pairings in the NCAA tournament: St. John's-George Washington (with SJU coach Mike Jarvis matched against many of the same GW players he coached last year), the rematches from some of this season's biggest games (Duke-Cincinnati and Connecticut-Stanford in the Regional Finals), the '90s NCAA rivalry of Utah-Kentucky and they're going to need plenty of oxygen on the sidelines in Knoxville with the likes of Auburn, Maryland, St. John's and Ohio State/UCLA all potential attendees at the South Regional.
In the NIT, Toledo and Xavier get to have a Pity Party in a first-round rematch of a game early this year (won by Toledo at home). Princeton and Georgetown get a rematch of their memorable NCAA game from 10 years ago. The NIT committee did a nice job of introducing Northwestern and DePaul to each other and, likewise, Fresno State and California. Those teams should be playing home-and-home (or, better yet, neutral site "dual home games") every year. Georgia and Clemson may have to drop the pretense that they're not strictly football schools after their mutually disappointing basketball seasons.
Let the games begin!
Key games this week:
Wednesday: NIT FIRST ROUND
(especially
Fresno St@California,
Xavier@Toledo,
Georgia@Clemson, Northwestern@DePaul),
Georgetown@Princeton)
Thursday: NCAA FIRST ROUND - SOUTH and WEST REGIONALS
(especially
Minnesota"@"Gonzaga,
Louisville-Creighton)
Friday: NCAA FIRST ROUND - EAST and MIDWEST REGIONALS
(especially
Kansas-Evansville,
Wisconsin-SW Missouri St)
Saturday: NCAA SECOND ROUND - SOUTH and WEST REGIONALS
Sunday: NCAA SECOND ROUND - EAST and MIDWEST REGIONALS
The Sweetest Thing
Gonzaga is no Cinderella, either. The Bulldogs are good ... make that very good. They took it right to a depleted Minnesota team and to a surprised Stanford team. Be sure to catch their West Regional semifinal on Thursday against Florida. Both teams love to run. And don't be surprised if Gonzaga breaks all the way through to the Final Four past Connecticut. UConn won't be taking Gonzaga out of its element by forcing an up-tempo game. Gonzaga has more depth, especially up front. The key will be whether Khalid El-Amin and company can force turnovers from Matt Santangelo and the other Bulldog guards. Most likely "yes", but just maybe "no".
Oklahoma was supposedly the last team to make it into the NCAA tournament (by virtue of being the lowest-seeded among the at-large selections) and they've won their way through to the Sweet 16 as well. While that's a surprise, they're not really unknown enough to qualify as Cinderella, either. Overachievers maybe, but not living a fairy tale.
Purdue and Iowa validated the Big 10's claim as the nation's best conference this year by beating higher-seeded Miami (Florida) and Arkansas, respectively. Miami had looked solidly impressive in the first round, but wasn't ready for the scrappiness of Brian Cardinal and his mates. The Big 10 placed 4 teams (out of its 7 bids) into the Sweet 16 while the SEC got 3 and the Big East and ACC two each. It was good to see the MAC (Miami (Ohio)) and the MVC (SW Missouri State) each get a representative as well.
Cincinnati had trouble several times during the year in games where its offense went AWOL. So you could see how Temple was the kind of team that could pull off the upset. The Owls will need a lot more than their gimmick match-up zone, however, to pull off a similar feat should they meet Duke in the East Regional Final. All those close games that Arizona played all year long did wind up catching up to them in the tournament. North Carolina had shown itself to be vulnerable to smaller, quicker teams during the regular season, so the way that loss took shape wasn't necessarily so surprising. The surprise was the showcase of talent that Weber State's Harold Arceneaux put on. Miami (Ohio)'s upset of Utah was a surprise. (But when you have one of the nation's best players on your team, pulling off an upset here and there shouldn't be too shocking.) It was good to see Wally Szczerbiak get to display his talents in front of a wider audience.
This week's biggest unresolved questions revolve around the Midwest and the South Regionals. The likely Midwest final between Kentucky and Michigan State seems to split observers right down the middle. (I took the Spartans.) I can't wait to see who's still standing after the dust settles in Knoxville this weekend. St. John's, Auburn, Maryland and Ohio State have each been impressive (in that order). They won't be taking each other out of their normal styles by forcing the pace so we are likely to see some great showcases, especially in the first half of those games.
The NIT is down to the Bittersweet 16. Young teams like DePaul and Wake Forest can use this experience to build towards bigger things next year. A veteran team like Clemson gets one last chance to salvage something out of a disappointing season. Princeton already has one ACC notch on its belt this year (Florida State). A second one will be a tougher prospect having to do it on the road.
Key games this week:
Monday:
NIT ROUND OF 16
(Wake Forest@Xavier,
Princeton@NC State,
Nebraska@TCU, Wyoming@Oregon, Old Dominion@Butler)
Tuesday:
NIT ROUND OF 16
(California@DePaul, Colorado@Colorado St, Clemson@Rutgers)
Wednesday:
NIT QUARTERFINALS
Thursday:
NCAA SOUTH REGIONAL SEMIFINALS @ Knoxville, TN
(Auburn-Ohio St,
Maryland-St John's)
NCAA WEST REGIONAL SEMIFINALS @ Phoenix, AZ
(Connecticut-Iowa,
Gonzaga-Florida)
NIT QUARTERFINALS
Friday:
NCAA EAST REGIONAL SEMIFINALS @ East Rutherford, NJ
(Duke-SW Missouri St,
Temple-Purdue),
NCAA MIDWEST REGIONAL SEMIFINALS @ St. Louis, MO
(Michigan St-Oklahoma,
Kentucky-Miami-OH)
NIT QUARTERFINALS
Saturday:
NCAA SOUTH REGIONAL FINAL @ Knoxville, TN
NCAA WEST REGIONAL FINAL @ Phoenix, AZ
Sunday:
NCAA EAST REGIONAL FINAL @ East Rutherford, NJ
MIDWEST REGIONAL FINAL @ St. Louis, MO
Two For Ten
Ohio State may be the least of the seeds left, but they've gotten here via the toughest path. They beat Auburn and St. John's straight up. Those might look like upsets on paper, but neither the Tigers nor the Red Storm handed the Buckeyes their victories. The better team earned the win in both games. Sometimes it's easy to overanalyze things. Rule Number One is always "Go with the guards". College basketball is dominated by the guard spot. If you're a good enough point guard, you can force the game to be played at your pace and to your rhythm. I said back during the season that Scoonie Penn and Michael Redd were the best backcourt in the nation and they've demonstrated it in the tournament. (Yes, William Avery and Trajan Langdon of Duke are both fabulous, but they benefit tremendously from having Elton Brand underneath as Option #1 on their team. Penn and Redd are Option #1 for Ohio State.)
The Michigan State-Kentucky Midwest final is a game that jumped out when the NCAA bracket was first announced. It was highly anticipated and had the added lustre that the two teams hadn't met during the regular season. (H'm. Suddenly the phrase "interleague play" -- which I'm actually for, mind you -- has popped into my head.) The Spartans were able to eventually hold their own on the boards as the game wore on and then the "best guard on the floor" rule took over as Mateen Cleaves made key plays in the closing moments of the game.
So the reign of the Wildcats has come to an end and their abdication leaves the Duke Blue Devils as the de facto "Team of the '90s" (with the official coronation only a week away). No one has yet made Duke go to the well in the second half of a game and see what's there. And it's not like Temple and SW Missouri State didn't play well. That's just it: they did both play well.
Connecticut used its precision fastbreak offense to get past Iowa in the West Regional semifinals but it was their halfcourt defense (and relentless offensive rebounding in the late-going) in the final against Gonzaga that earned the first trip to the Final Four in school history.
While Duke and Connecticut are the favorites on paper in the semifinal games, at least the two opponents are well suited to challenge them. Michigan State has the inside muscle to push Elton Brand off the blocks (if not the perimeter defense to stay with both Avery and Langdon outside). In their first matchup, Duke bolted out to a quick 17-2 lead on the shooting of Langdon, but they only wound up winning by 6 after MSU regrouped. Mateen Cleaves had a horrible game (3-for-17) the first time around so the payback incentive (that would have been on Duke's side had they been facing Kentucky in this game) will be on the side of the Spartans. In the other semifinal, we have a great matchup of point guards (Khalid El-Amin vs. Scoonie Penn) and 'tweeners (Richard Hamilton vs. Michael Redd). Those matchups are a push and Ohio State is more athletic on the inside than the opponents UConn has faced so far. I'll still go with Duke over UConn in the national championship but both semifinals should be under-10-point decisions.
In the NIT, the Pac-10 has saved face somewhat from its woeful NCAA performance (no team in the Sweet 16 and 1-4 overall) by having both California and Oregon make it to the Garden. Clemson has also salvaged something from their disappointing regular season by making it. Xavier staged a great second-half comeback at home against Princeton to make the semifinals. With homecourt advantage out of the way, revert to Rule Number One: "Go with the guards". That means it'll be Xavier over Clemson in the NIT title game as Gary Lumpkin and Lenny Brown trump Terell McIntyre in their senior swan songs.
Key games this week:
Tuesday:
NIT SEMIFINALS
(Xavier-Clemson,
California-Oregon)
Thursday:
NIT FINALS
Saturday:
NCAA FINAL FOUR @ St. Petersburg, FL:
(Duke-Michigan St,
Connecticut-Ohio St)
Monday week:
NCAA NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP @ St. Petersburg, FL
Huskie D
Personally, I was glad to see someone be able to beat Duke. It was a triumph of execution over talent. It's good to know that individual talent hasn't (quite) outstripped team play. (Keep in mind that it was just a 3-point defeat for the Blue Devils, though.) I'm not particularly a fan of Connecticut, either. Too much of their success comes from their "gimmick" fullcourt pressure. But they won the national championship on good, old-fashioned halfcourt D. (Hey, Mike, the priest was right!) The Huskies were able to double-team Elton Brand in the low post effectively enough so that he wasn't able to score at will and he had trouble kicking the ball out to the open man. When UConn was able to take away Duke's Option #1, you see how quickly the Blue Devil offense degenerated into the individual players trying to score on their own off the dribble. Granted, they're good at it and Trajan Langdon, Corey Maggette, William Avery and Chris Carrawell did score some all on their own. But the points didn't come easy.
In the game's most crucial possessions it came down to this: Duke's idea of how to score in the closing moments was to clear out and let Trajan Langdon go one-on-one. Credit Ricky Moore with great individual D, but that was a lousy way to try and win a game. (I've said it before: it's "Be Like Mike" basketball. The legacy of Michael Jordan is that people now think of "winning time" as "time for the star to go score on his own".) Connecticut, at least, was running those high screens out top that forced Duke to switch Elton Brand onto Khalid El-Amin and they took advantage of the mismatch. It's still only two-man basketball, but that's better than nothing.
All year long, Duke had blown away its opponents on the strength of its offensive prowess. It was the highest-scoring team in the nation and had the highest scoring margin. UConn was doing it primarily with defense (mostly with a fullcourt press, but they also revealed an excellent halfcourt defense as well). It's tough to draw too many conclusions from a 3-point game, but certainly the Huskies were better able to defend the Blue Devils than vice-versa.
Duke has more high school All-Americas coming in next year, so it'll be more of the same style basketball down in Durham. It's not clear whether North Carolina's first-round upset was a blip or the beginning of a long-term slide to secondary status next to the Blue Devils. If so, that only leaves Kentucky as a national program that can consistently recruit talent on a par with Duke. Let's hope not. The last thing we need is a return to the days of John Wooden's UCLA teams which had overwhelming amounts of talent on their rosters as compared with the rest of the country. Sure, it makes for thrilling "upsets" of can't-miss teams like we just got last night, but I'd much rather see a lot more balance across the country. There was something a little too preordained about this year's NCAA tournament for my tastes.
I hope you've enjoyed reading HOOP, LINE AND SINKER this year as much as I've enjoyed writing it. I enjoyed the feedback as well. Special thanks to Arlene Pedovitch for her "correspondent" reports to me. (Go Tigers!)
See you all next season,
Ron
(c) 1998-9 Ron McBay
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