[Volume II, No. 1]

DEANO

Say it ain't so, guys.

No more Dean Smith at Chapel Hill? I'm sick to my stomach. I knew this day had to come, but who wanted it to be so soon? Fresh off yet another Final Four, 4 starters back and some good recruits coming in? I guess it seemed like old hat to him by now so that was no carrot to entice him to stay. I think, really, he had decided that he wanted to call it quits quite a few years back but he was so close to breaking the all-time record for career wins that I think he felt he owed it to his former players who wanted him to break the record for their sake so they could say they played for the all-time winningest coach. Once he broke the record last year, I think that's all he was still hanging around for.

I think what will happen is that assistant coach Bill Guthlidge will coach the team this year and then at the end of the year they'll get a real successor. At the top of the list, of course, is Roy Williams at Kansas. Other possibilities are Eddie Fogler at South Carolina and George Karl, the coach of the Seattle Supersonics, or Larry Brown. I think Roy is the man, though. He'd be my choice and everyone knows that he wants to take over.

Here's the way that I got into Carolina basketball: I first started to follow college basketball when I was 13 or so. The earliest college hoops game I can remember was the '72 NCAA final where UCLA (Bill Walton) defeated Florida State (coached by Hugh Durham). The next year ('73), UCLA had their 88-game winning streak stopped 71-70 at Notre Dame when they led 70-59 and Notre Dame scored the last 12 points of the game. I can still see Bill Walton's turnaround bank shot bounce off the rim at the buzzer. In the NCAA final, Walton scored 44 points on 21-for-22 shooting against Memphis State (Larry Finch). The next year I was really hooked and UCLA played then-undefeated North Carolina State (Monte Towe, David Thompson and Tom Burleson: 5'-4", 6'-4", 7'-4", respectively) in December and routed them. N.C. State had gone undefeated in '73 but was ineligible for the NCAA tournament. In the '74 NCAA national semifinal, N.C. State beat UCLA 80-77 in overtime in a monumental game. David Thonlpson caught -- not blocked -- a guy's shot out of the air. So the next year ('74/'75), I started to check out the ACC to see what kind of league this N.C. State team played in. Well, that year they had the ACC Game of the Week on and in the opening credits they showed this 360-degree layup by this freshman guard named Phil Ford at North Carolina. He was a wonder. And when N.C. State played North Carolina, lo and behold, they beat David Thompson's team. So I was hooked on UNC. After Phil Ford graduated, Carolina kept on winning and I came to appreciate the greatness of Dean Smith himself and realized that it wasn't just this one talented player who was responsible for what I liked about the Tar Heels. It was the coach, Dean Smith, who was the true greatness. By the time the '82 season came along with this freshman athlete named Michael Jordan, I was a well entrenched Tar Heel fan. Michael Jordan didn't have anything to do with my loving North Carolina. It was Phil Ford and Dean Smith.

The Four Comers. The Blue Team. Raising your fist to take yourself out of a game when you're tired. Pointing back at the assist man after you've scored a layup. That run-and-switch scramble defense. Fast breaks pitching back to the trailing center (Sam Perkins) to shoot an open 3-pointer. Down by 8 points with 17 seconds left and Walter Davis finds a [way] to send a game into OT. That 25-2 '76 team (Phil Ford, Mitch Kupchak, Tommy LaGarde, Walter Davis and John Kuester) that was better than the 32-0 Indiana squad but never got the chance to prove it 'cause Phil injured himself playing in a pickup game the weekend before the NCAA tournament started and they were bounced in the first round. Mike O'Koren scoring 31 points against UNLV in the Final Four. Dean going to the Four Comers too early (6 minutes left) against Marquette in the '77 final and having Butch Lee be touted as a better player than Phil Ford. "Dudley Bradley Dunks Duke." Duke 7, UNC 0 at the half. Al Wood scoring 39 points in the Final Four against Othell Wilson of Virginia. "Knock it down, Michael." Dan Dakich. Dean getting thrown out of the game at the Final Four vs. Roy Williams and Kansas. Chris Webber calls timeout. Dean and [Rick] Barnes coming to blows. 43-0 vs. Clemson in Chapel Hill. UNC vs. Duke, any year.

And now, there's no more Dean. Man. It'll never be the same. At least I got to go see a UNC game in person last year and see Dean Smith coach and win in the Dean Dome itself. (Thanks again, Mike. I hope you know what a special treat that was for me.)

Dean Smith's retirement casts a shadow on three conferences. There's a power shift afoot in the ACC with Clemson trying to assert itself as the new rival to the undisputed flagship program at Duke while North Carolina itself tries to maintain its standard of excellence during the transitional tenure of Bill Guthridge until they decide on a long-term successor to Deano.

Record-wise, Roy Williams at Kansas, who spent 10 years ('79-'88) as a Tar Heel assistant coach under Dean, is the odds-on favorite to make the move to Chapel Hill, especially with the soul-searching he's gone through wondering why his #l-ranked teams haven't made a single Final Four the past three years. If they don't make it this year either, the timing could be perfect for a change. If he leaves, this could be the last year for elite hoops in the Big 12 with the expected departure at season's end of Iowa State's Tim Floyd to take over the Chicago Bulls.

There's a double incentive for Eddie Fogler at South Carolina to turn in a super season. He needs it to make his case versus Roy Williams as possible Tar Heel successor on the one hand. Williams has a superior coaching record, but it's Fogler who's the more true blue Tar Heel having been a player under Dean ('68-'70) as well as an assistant coach for 15 years ('72-'86). In the SEC, though, there's the added opportunity of a changing of [t]he guard with the departure of Rick Pitino to the NBA. Either way, with a good season, Fogler either gets the North Carolina job or supplants Kentucky as the dominant program in the SEC.

The Big 10 finally gives in and will have its own conference tournament this year, in Chicago. To make room, though, they've reduced the conference schedule from 18 games down to 16 (in an 11-team league, mind you). That makes for unbalanced schedules that give some teams advantageous shots at the regular season title simply by only having to play certain teams once while other contenders have to face them twice. That problem is so bad in the WAC that the best team in the league, Fresno State, might not face the next two best teams, New Mexico and Utah, all year long. In fact, among the elite conferences, only the Pac-10 has a full home-and-home schedule where all teams meet each other twice without hope of salvaging a bad season by pulling an upset in their conference tournament.

Last year's national champs, Arizona, returns the entire lineup from the squad that ran through three #l-seeded teams on the way to the title. They're the obvious pre-season pick as #1 to start the season, but don't expect a wire-to-wire run at an undefeated season for this team. The top teams in the ACC (Duke, Clemson and North Carolina) are as good as any team in the country. There's a huge opportunity for the Tigers to make their first Final Four and cement their place among the national elite programs. Fresno State has so much talent it will be hard for them to focus on the little things that make a champion, but they'll be fun to watch, win or lose. The Atlantic 10 continues its rise and is already the league with the best guard play in the nation. Don't be surprised if a team like Xavier breaks on through all the way to the Final Four. The new conference tournament in the Big 10 may change the competitiveness of those teams come NCAA time. In fact, if you're looking for a team that most closely fits the 90's mold of national champion -- overwhelming depth at every position, a run-all-day style that wins by attrition as much as individual talent -- the team that most closely fits this year is the Iowa Hawkeyes.

Just like last year, the pre-season matchups in the November tournaments are much more appealing than in December. Expect the big boys to square off in the MAUI INVITATIONAL (Arizona, Duke, Kentucky), PRE-SEASON NIT (Kansas, Minnesota, Rhode Island) and GREAT ALASKA SHOOTOUT (North Carolina, UCLA, Purdue). Name tournaments like the TOP OF THE WORLD CLASSIC (Clemson), CHRISTMAS SAN JUAN SHOOTOUT (Iowa) and RAINBOW CLASSIC (Kansas) should be one-team showcases.

Be on the lookout for don't-miss one-off match ups like Long Island @ TCU (Nov 22), Clemson v Kentucky (Nov 29), Arizona v Kansas at the GREAT EIGHT (Dec 2), Kentucky @ Indiana (Dec 6), Fresno State @ Temple in the brand new "Temple of Apollo" arena (Dec 9), South Carolina @ Clemson (Dec 17), Fresno State @ Minnesota (Dec 20), Rhode Island v Stanford at the CABLE CAR CLASSIC (Dec 29) and UCLA @ Duke (Feb 22).

Let the games begin!

[Volume II, No. 3]
Nov 17 [] Top 25 Ballot

The biggest story the past week was the victory by Princeton over NC State and Texas in the COACHES VS CANCER TOURNAMENT. The Tiger faithful shouldn't get too excited, though. The tournament games were played under experimental rules, including a 40-second shot clock, which played right into Princeton's deliberate style. Still, back-to-back wins versus name teams count just the same. Welcome to the Top 25.

Minnesota turned out to be much less impressive than expected against a weak Villanova team. They have no height or beef up front, so they had to hustle their way to a hometown victory. Quincy Lewis showed that he'll make the transition to starter with no problem, but Sam Jacobson still doesn't play like this is his team to lead. He struggled taking too many jump shots rather than doing the nitty-gritty dirty work of driving to the basket and staying at home on D to grab the tough rebounds. That's what this team needs from him and it doesn't look like he gets it yet. Their regular season hopes are probably not too good, but maybe they can look for salvation in the new Big 10 postseason tournament.

The South Carolina-Maryland matchup was the best played game of the young season. The Terrapins showed a lot of promise. They've got three forwards who can put the ball on the floor (Laron Profit, Rodney Elliott and freshman Terence Morris) and lots of experience. They may not miss do-everything Keith Booth nearly as you might imagine. The Gamecocks didn't look so good early, but the backcourt leadership of B.J. McKie and Melvin Watson came through. (So what if Watson made an egregious travel just before nailing the game-winner in OT?)

Indiana @ Temple wasn't such a well played game, and the Owls already had one game under their belt. The Hoosiers have potential, but what they don't have is a point guard. A.J. Guyton has talent, but he's a scorer not a floor general. Freshman Luke Recker is a player, but not a true point guard, either. The Hoosiers committed 23 turnovers off of 19 steals by Temple. Jason Collier still doesn't appear ready for prime time, either.

The PRESEASON NIT gets going this week, so most of the big boys will finally get their feet wet. Three very watchable games come up this Saturday. The Freak Show starts up when Massachusetts visits Fresno State. Temple's masochistic schedule continues when they travel to Mississippi. Catch the shootout when Long Island meets TCU.

[Volume II, No. 4]
Nov 24 - [] ACC [] Top 25 Ballot

What's wrong with the Clemson Tigers? Against a mediocre field in the TOP OF THE WORLD CLASSIC, they had to come from behind in the final minute to subdue SW Missouri State in the semis and they didn't put up much of a fight against Gonzaga in the final. They've got a golden opportunity this year to establish their program as a perennial national contender, but it doesn't look like they want it. Playing down to the level of your opponent is a very bad trait.

Mississippi avenged last season's loss in the NCAA tournament to Temple by beating them convincingly at home. It's a game they were supposed to win, granted, but at least they were ready to play and came through (see above). Connecticut staked their claim to being the best team in the Northeast by beating Rhode Island at home, but Massachusetts may yet have a say about that. The Minutemen didn't look half bad even as they were blown out in the second half at Fresno State. The Bulldogs, who are still getting used to playing with each other and don't even have all of their talented players eligible yet, showed the kind of explosiveness that might take them a long, long way before the season's over.

Illinois State and UNC-Charlotte, two teams that aren't traditional powerhouses but have high expectations this season, stubbed their toes on the road. They've got plenty of time to regroup, but a national ranking might not be in the offing for them. But don't forget about them come tournament time. The last of the big-time teams (UCLA, St. Joseph's and Louisville) finally get their seasons under[ ]way this week. In fact, this week will probably feature the most interesting out-of-conference matchups all year long. Too bad it comes so early in season when teams really aren't settled in yet.

The MAUl INVITATIONAL offers a possible #1 vs #2 showdown if Arizona and Duke meet. Arizona's a known quantity, but Duke is ahead of schedule, so they might give the Wildcats a good show. Duke has plenty of 'Tweeners to match up with Miles Simon and Michael Dickerson. The key will be Steve Wojciechowski's ability to handle Arizona's pressure defense. Duke will probably have to play 3 guards at once, so freshman William Avery will be baptized by fire. Power forward Elton Brand is the best of the new frontcourt Dookies. Should be a great game. And don't forget that Kentucky's in the same tournament, too.

The GREAT ALASKA SHOOTOUT features North Carolina, UCLA, Purdue and Massachusetts. The Tar Heels look ripe for an upset to me, so don't be surprised if Purdue or U-Mass walks away with that title. Kansas should handle U-Conn in the PRESEASON NIT final. Stanford and Oklahoma should square off in the BIG ISLAND INVITATIONAL final. Indiana and Illinois State have a chance to right their ships against each other in the UNITED AIRLINES TIP-OFF CLASSIC. Clemson and Kentucky meet again this year in what's fast becoming an annual ACC-SEC grudge match. Find your way to a TV set when Fresno State takes its show on the road against Arkansas.

It's a great week coming. up. Catch as much of it as you can.

ACC: Nov 24 - Heavenly Departure Means The Devils Will Dance

Dean Smith, the man who has dominated the conference for 36 years, is gone.
Personnel-wise, he left the North Carolina Tar Heels in as good a shape as you could ever hope for: 4 starters return from a Final Four team that was the preseason #1 pick in some polls. Even though the players might look the same on the court, don't underestimate the impact of Smith's departure on UNC, even this year. Yes, his reputation brought in blue-chip recruits in droves, and that's a loss that will be felt more next year. But don't forget that Dean Smith made his players better. And don't forget what a good bench coach Smith was as well. There will be games this year that Bill Guthridge will lose that Dean Smith would have won because of Dean's acumen in analyzing the moment and reacting to it appropriately. That's a lot to lose.

The immediate beneficiaries of Smith's departure are Mike Krzyzewski's Duke Blue Devils. The New World Order in the ACC has arrived and Duke is the one and only superpower. The talented freshman class is already making an impact. Last season, Duke had two weaknesses: rebounding in the frontcourt and quickness in the backcourt. The frontcourt problem has been solved, most notably in the body of 6'8" Elton Brand. The backcourt problem is a little trickier. Freshman William Avery has the quickness to be the answer there, but this is still Steve Wojciechowski's team. The early evidence, though, is that Coach K's liberal substitutions will give Avery enough playing time to make an impact, and the sheer number of bodies Duke can throw at opponents will be enough to wear down most of them by attrition alone. There will be very few teams who have the personnel to even get to the point to exploit Duke's Achilles' Heel. (If they face Arizona in the MAUI INVITATIONAL, that question may be answered soon enough.)

Clemson has a great opportunity to establish itself as a perennial member of the ACC elite, but their loss in the TOP OF THE WORLD CLASSIC suggests that they're not ready to seize the moment. Rick Barnes' plodding style of play only goes so far. Guys like Harold Jamison and Tom Wideman seem more like football players trying to play basketball than true hoops players. The Tigers don't get enough easy points in transition or just plain open jump shots. With Vincent Whitt, Tony Christie and Temple transfer Johnny Miller, they ought to be able to have this covered, but it doesn't show up on the court.

Maryland could finish as high as second behind Duke with no trouble. They're operating under The "Year After" Rule to great effect. (The Rule says that teams which lose a superstar player -- in this case, Keith Booth -- do as well or better the following year because the supporting cast knows how to win and everyone realizes they must step up, and they do.) Laron Profit has come on early as the go-to guy, but Rodney Elliott and freshman Terence Morris are both very capable up front. They have a capable backcourt as well in Terrell Stokes, Sarunas Jasikevicius and Matt Kovarik. And Obinna Ekezie is as solid a center as there is in the league this year. Mostly, this team can put 5 guys on the floor who know how to play the game.

Wake Forest doesn't fare quite so well under The "Year After" Rule. Tony Rutland is hurt again, and was probably overrated, anyway. Jerry Braswell has taken control of the backcourt by default, but he's more of a true shooting guard rather than a point guard. Sophomore Loren Woods has found the going tough early on all by himself in the middle this year without Tim Duncan to anchor things. Woods just doesn't have enough bulk to control play underneath. Two promising freshmen, Niki Arinze and Robert O'Kelley, may yet save the day in Winston-Salem this year. Coach Dave Odom is one whose stock should go up inside the league without the shadow of Dean Smith hanging over the league. Odom is a great coach, but doesn't get enough notice for it.

Herb Sendek had NC State going in the right direction at the end of last season with an upset of Maryland in the ACC tournament. But they didn't look very good in either game in the COACHES VS CANCER TOURNAMENT at the start of this season. They might be the "best of the rest" in the league this year, but an NIT appearance is probably the most they can reasonably hope for. Ishua Benjamin never did quite become the frontline ACC guard he was projected to be. This is his last go around. C.C. Harrison made a late run last year, but it hasn't shown up so far this season.

Don't be fooled by Florida State's appearance in the PRESEASON NIT semifinals. To get there, they beat the likes of Loyola(MD) and Utah State. Teams like the Seminoles and NC State are dragging down the overall quality of play in the ACC. It's no longer a league of quality teams from top to bottom. It's fast becoming a two-tiered conference of national contenders and local pretenders. Everybody go home. There's nothing to see here.

Matt Harpring stayed around for his senior year at Georgia Tech -- not that he's destined to be a great NBA player, anyway -- and he may find it a little more pleasant this year with freshman Dion Glover on board. Still, Tech was way more than one player away from anything (except oblivion) last year, so the won-loss record may not be any better. A second straight losing season could mean the end of Bobby Cremins' tenure at Tech. Bobby put the basketball program on the map, but, in the end, he may have been done in by his too-narrow recruiting focus that left the cupboard bare with the likes of one-and-done Stephon Marbury.

Jeff Jones is under fire at Virginia. His teams have shown an ability to play stifling defense over the years, but, at the same time, they've been alarmingly bad offensively even with some individually talented players. He hasn't shown that he's capable of recruiting quality big men as yet, either. Year 1 A.D. (After Dean) in the ACC is a golden opportunity for everyone, but I don't think the Cavaliers have the horses to make any noise in the regular season or in the tournament. Curtis Staples is their best player on the perimeter, but he's nowhere near enough.

Duke has an excellent chance to roll to both the regular season and tournament titles this year. They are Final Four material, without a doubt. UNC has the seeds of its own destruction embedded in it and looks to disappoint itself somewhere along the line. When the crisis of confidence comes, where will they turn without Dean there to reassure them? As great as they looked at the end of last season, don't forget how bad these same players looked at the beginning of last year. The red carpet is rolled out for Clemson, but it just might be Maryland that walks down the aisle this year as Duke's main challenger. It says here that Duke walks through the regular season with Maryland 2nd, Carolina 3rd, Clemson 4th and Wake 5th. After that, NC State, Virginia, Florida State and Georgia Tech are a toss-up for cellar dwellar. Come tournament time, Carolina might get one last emotional hurrah and make it to the tournament final, but Duke is just too deep to be denied.

I certainly hope you caught the final of the MAUI INVITATIONAL between Duke and Arizona. We won't see a game that good again all year long. This early in the season, neither team really knew where they stood, so they went all out. Being an out-of-conference game, neither team was familiar with the other's players from first-hand experience so nobody quite knew how to guard anyone else like they do in conference play. And without the "lose and your season's over" pressure of the NCAA tournament, there was nothing conservative about the way these two teams played. It was outstanding.

Going into the game, the main question was whether Duke's backcourt could stand up to the overwhelming defensive quickness of Arizona's perimeter players. Steve Wojciechowski got his points and assists and, most importantly, didn't commit many turnovers. What's more, freshman guard William Avery scored 21 points. Folks, there's not a tougher team for your backcourt to face than Arizona. If they couldn't make a dent in the Blue Devils, who can? Fresh off his spectacular performance against Kentucky, Mike Bibby was totally shut down by Duke. But how about Miles Simon? I just love the tight rotation he has on his jump shot. What a combination of athletic ability and basketball skills. Don't be surprised if these two teams meet again in the NCAA final. And, trust me, it won't be nearly as good a game.

The GREAT ALASKA SHOOTOUT final between North Carolina and Purdue was very high quality as well. Carolina didn't know what to do at first against a team that could actually play defense and take care of the ball on offense. Purdue's big men gave the Tar Heels all kinds of trouble. But this bunch really is self-motivated after all. They adjusted to the level of play and rose to the challenge. They got better as the game wore on. Shammond Williams was dynamite. Antawn Jamison showed his heart, as did Ed Cota. Vince Carter, however, was invisible for the most part. Purdue took away his alley-oop dunks and if he can't showboat, Carter doesn't always work that hard otherwise. Thankfully, the rest of the team doesn't have that problem. The Boilermakers are solid overachievers, which is probably good enough to win the regular season title in the weakened Big 10 this year.

The trouble Kansas had with Arizona State and Florida State before being able to subdue them is more worrisome than the relief that they were able to pull out those victories to take the PRESEASON NIT title. The Jayhawks can still be overmatched on the floor by opponents' athletic superiority. Don't miss the fact that Florida State goes 6-9, 6-11, 7-2 along the baseline with capable players.

Kentucky showed signs of life against Clemson after the Tigers went into another of their typical droughts from the field. I still don't think the Wilcats are so scary under Tubby's direction, though. They do still have individual talent, but not enough to dominate games like in the past.

Chris Herren, probably my favorite player in college basketball this year, left the team at Fresno State indefinitely to fight drug problems. It's really too bad. He's such a joyful player on the court. Hope he makes it back. The Bulldogs still have loads of talent, mind you. The reins at point guard were going to be turned over to Rafer Alston at some point, anyway, with Herren moving to his natural shooting guard position. The team wasn't ready for the change and lost a sloppy game to Arkansas with many of Alston's flashy passes too slick for his own teammates. There's a lot to put together at Fresno, but if it does all come together, watch out.

Georgia Tech won the PUERTO RICO SHOOTOUT over Louisville, Alabama and St. John's with major contributions from some positive freshman talent. Hawaii stomped Indiana and Illinois State (albeit at home) to take the UNITED AIRLINES TIP-OFF CLASSIC. The Rainbows don't play a road game until January l0th, by the way. Stanford struggled, but won the BIG ISLAND INVITATIONAL over competition it should have handled easier. Michigan State squeaked by last week's darlings, Gonzaga, in the final of the SPARTAN CLASSIC.

Take a breather this week. Lots of games, but not too many heavyweight matchups (excepting, of course, Kansas-Arizona and Purdue-Kentucky in the GREAT EIGHT). Maryland @ Clemson is the first interesting conference game. Stanford-Georgia and Kansas @ Maryland round out the weekend. Remember, November was the big month for pre-conference tournaments. The December tournaments are much less intriguing.

ACC: Dec 1 -

Divide And Conquer ACC Teams Take 3 Tournament Titles

In a big week for out-of-conference tournaments, ACC teams came away with 3 titles. Duke won the MAUl INVITATIONAL with a memorable and impressive victory over Arizona. North Carolina took out Purdue and UCLA to win the GREAT ALASKA SHOOTOUT. And Georgia Tech got past Louisville, Alabama and St. John's to take the PUERTO RICO SHOOTOUT crown. Even Florida State made the PRESEASON NIT final, beating Connecticut in the semis and giving Kansas a run for their money in the championship game. In fact, on the week, only Clemson could be legitimately disappointed with their effort against Kentucky.

The Blue Devils are way ahead of schedule. A team like Arizona should have been perfectly suited to exploit Steve Wojciechowski's lack of quickness and William Avery's lack of experience with their backcourt pressure, but it didn't happen. Duke was clearly the superior team in a dominant performance.

North Carolina showed the resilience of a champion as it adjusted to the stern test that Purdue gave it. Shammond Williams, Antawn Jamison and Ed Cota all came up big, but Vince Carter was noticeably absent from his normal contribution. Carter is still too in love with the flashy play and doesn't seem content to win ugly. If he can't dunk, he won't play, it seems.

Georgia Tech's freshman class may have revived the spirit of seniors Matt Harpring and Michael Maddox. Guard Dion Glover and center Alvin Jones contributed heavily to the Yellow Jackets' three victories. Maddox seems willing to work underneath this year to compliment the outside shooting stroke that seemed to be his only game in the past.

Florida State's huge front line -- 6-9, 6-11, 7-2 -- showed how formidable it could be holding Kansas' Raef LaFrentz and Paul Pierce to 2 points each in the first half. Yeah, both All-Americas did wake up in the second half, but FSU's athleticism was impressive.

Clemson makes life hard on itself. With Tom Wideman and Harold Jamison on the floor at the same time, there were two dead spots in the Tiger offense that Kentucky didn't have to guard. Tony Christie started the game off great against the Wildcats, but he went away. They still don't realize his points are as important as Buckner's.

Maryland keeps walloping scrub teams, but this coming week they'll get some games that matter. They can start climbing the ACC rungs when they travel to Clemson. Then they can get some national notoriety when they face Kansas in the FRANKLIN NATIONAL BANK CLASSIC.

Conference play gets under[ ]way this week with a couple of games. The league has made its statement on the national scene.

HOOP, LINE AND SINKER - Dec 8: Volume II, No. 6 - [] Top 25 Ballot

Things Are Getting Clearer

Thanks to the boldness of the preseason scheduling this year, we've now got a real good sense of how the top teams stack up against each other. There have already been 5 games played among this week's top 7 teams. 20 of the Top 25 have played at least one currently ranked opponent. Here's what we know so far:

Duke is far beyond everyone else at No.1. They have depth inside and outside, enough height and muscle to bang with anybody and enough quickness and ball-handling to run with anyone. They crushed Virginia by 40 just like they've been beating everyone else.

North Carolina's starting "six" has great balance and chemistry. Shammond Williams is even better than last year. He takes the big shots outside, drives to the basket, and his assists are up this year, too. Interior defense is a problem, though, as well as depth.

Kansas has the best two players (Raef LaFrentz and Paul Pierce) on any team. They take turns taking over games, but the Jayhawks have had trouble time and again versus teams with individual athleticism: Maryland, Florida State, Arizona State and Arizona all had runs against KU where they just couldn't keep up.

Arizona's overwhelming backcourt is the soul of the team, but it'd be nice if there was a dominating player up front, which there ain't. Mike Bibby, Miles Simon, Jason Terry and Michael Dickerson can't all excel at the same time ... and they haven't. They were down big to Duke and Kansas before making those games close, and Texas ran with them for much longer than you'd expect.

Kentucky's Nazr Mohammed has emerged as a force at center on the college level. UK still has a quickness edge against most teams, but they don't shoot well from 3 like Rick Pitino's best teams. They were too quick for Purdue outside and Mohammed nullified Brad Miller on the inside.

Purdue is a solid, veteran team that doesn't have much individual athleticism. They're smart enough to put away undisciplined teams, but individual players can be exposed for their weakness and taken advantage of.

Maryland has a nice balance of talent and skill. They're not quite tall enough inside to dominate the boards, but they've got versatile players who can score from inside and out.

Xavier and Iowa haven't played anybody yet so their rankings are largely unproven. South Carolina has the OT win over Maryland early on, but they don't have the firepower to put teams away and win convincingly.

Stanford has size and a capable backcourt, but, like Kansas, athleticism is a problem. They methodically got out in front of Georgia and then had to hang on as things turned into a scrambled style of play.

Fresno State has loads of talented individual athletes, but faces the daunting task of getting them to play together as a team.

Mississippi is a good team, but not a dominating one. They beat Temple at home, but lost to the individual domination of 6'5" Bonzi Wells on the road at Ball State.

Temple has the element of surprise going for it with that gimmick matchup zone defense and a pretty good backcourt in Rasheed Brokenborough and Pepe Sanchez, but they're kind of like Purdue and Princeton: teams that will let you beat yourself, but teams that you could beat if you really played focused ball.

UCLA has individual talent that benefits from their chaotic style of play, but that 40-point loss to North Carolina tells you all you need to know. New Mexico has a solid team, but isn't ready to break through to the big time. Kenny Thomas is supposed to be an All-America candidate and he just hid away against the Bruins when they needed him.

Utah is a lot like Stanford, tall and methodical but susceptible to talent. Don't read too much into their road win at Wake Forest. Loren Woods is no Tim Duncan.

Arkansas has enough talent to run past scrubs (including Missouri), but neither team looked all that good in their one-point win over Fresno State.

Clemson is like Purdue: when they slow you down to their pace, they can bull their way to victory (like they did against Maryland), but when you outrun them (like Kentucky did) they can't keep pace. Plus, they just play like Clydesdales.

U-Conn has a good freshman guard in tiny bull Khalid El-Amin, but if you can keep him from dominating the game, nobody else there is all that great. Florida State is just having fun and they do have talent. The value-every-possession style of ACC games may take the wind out of their sails, though.

The early season wins that Princeton posted (over Texas and NC State) don't look quite as impressive at this point, but the Tigers continue to post decent scoring numbers considering their style of play.

Georgia has a talented freshman in Jumaine Jones and a veteran team otherwise, but they just don't seem like that smart of a basketball team.

Hawaii and Ball State both made their reputations by winning holiday tournaments on their home courts. They're both short-run blips on the radar.

Arizona State probably deserves a ranking, but we'll see if they look as good once conference play starts up. TCU is unranked, but they're averaging 119 points per game.

The irresistible force meets the immovable object this week when free-wheeling Fresno State comes to town to christen the new "Apollo of Temple" arena. Rafer Alston is still learning to run this team, so don't expect the Bulldogs to show their stuff yet.

Some time soon someone is going to burst the bubble in Chapel Hill and they'll wake up to the fact that Dean Smith isn't there anymore. Princeton gets a shot this week at spoiling the party and the Tigers are playing well. Carolina won't blow them out, but the home crowd should be enough to pull the Tar Heels to victory. (But don't forget: there's a shellacking by Duke in the future for this team. It remains to be seen what that does to their heads.)

Not many other games on the schedule this week with much advance expectations. Teams should cruise for the rest of December before conference play starts up in earnest in January.

HOOP, LINE AND SINKER - Dec 15: Volume II, No.7 - [] Top 25 Ballot

Oh, How The Mighty Fall

The big news of the past week was Michigan's upset of #1 Duke. It was Duke's first road game -- the MAUI INVITATIONAL was on neutral ground -- and they weren't ready for it. They've been used to blowing out teams at home, so they didn't have any practice being in a tight situation late in the game where execution in key possessions actually mattered. Trajan Langdon couldn't get open, Steve Wojciechowski fumbled the ball away and fouled out, and the rest of the team didn't know whom to turn to at that point. It's a flaw, but one the Blue Devils will overcome. Conference play will give them plenty of opportunities to establish go-to guys for this season. The problem for Duke during conference play, though, will be that they won't have blowouts that will allow massive substitutions. So the 12-man rotation with similar minutes for everybody will give way. It'll make them better able to compete in tight games, but it may not be such a happy ship as playing time starts to dwindle.

Michigan gets credit for being the first team to topple the Dukies, but not too much. Emotion-filled rivalries produce games that are closer than they should be. Remember, Duke was up 17 on the road in that game before things fell apart for them. Similarly, George Washington's cross-town win over Maryland doesn't quite count as much as it might. New Mexico-New Mexico State, Iowa-Iowa State and Florida State-Florida were all mismatches on paper, but went down to the wire on the court.

North Carolina moves up to No. 1 after coming to life in a struggie at home against Princeton. Princeton's deliberate style and tough D gave the Tar Heels problems. It was the athleticism of Vince Carter and the determination of Shammond Williams that brought UNC the victory. For a team whose offense revolves around taking the 3-pointer, Princeton's players sure don't look all that comfortable taking the shots. Lots of their attempts (4-for-26, by the way) looked like chucks from well beyond their comfort zone. If they had even hit a reasonably decent percentage from deep, we'd be singing "Rock, Chalk, Jayhawk!" this week.

Speaking of Kansas, they continue to turn in less than dominant performances. They couldn't shake U-Mass at home -- the same team, mind you, that Fresno State beat by 18 on their home court. Temple crushed the reeling Fresno State team in their new "Apollo of Temple" arena. Having a big-time home facility could make a difference in their postseason prospects. In the past, Temple has underachieved in the NCAA and one reason may be that they've been overwhelmed by the atmosphere playing away from the tiny confines of McGonigle Hall. Now they should be more used to those crowds and may play better when it counts. They already have several solid wins this year.

Kris Johnson is back playing for UCLA (and Jelani McCoy is not far behind) so they will soon resume their place among the Power Elite. Sunday Adebayo returns this week for Arkansas. Kansas gets Lester Earl. Fresno State gets Winfred Walton. Ricky Price returns for Duke, but how much will he play?

On tap this week: South Carolina meets Clemson (Wednesday) in a grudge game between two teams who've both underimpressed so far. Clernson needs a second guard to emerge to provide some easy outside points so everything doesn't have to be forced inside on every possession. (The other) USC has two great guards, but is pretty hurtin' up front. Always go with the guards.

Princeton gets another shot at an ACC opponent in the JIMMY V CLASSIC (Friday) against Wake Forest. It's a winnable game for the Tigers as long as they hit some jumpers. Princeton's center (Steve Goodrich) can hold his own against Loren Woods. "I knew Tim Duncan. You're no Tim Duncan."

UNC gets its feet wet in conference play travelling to Florida State (Saturday). The tall FSU frontline will give the Tar Heels problems. The leadership from Shammond Williams and Ed Cota, though, is the strength of this year's Carolina team and they should be able to overmatch the Seminole backcourt.

Xavier finally gets to play a real team -- Cincinnati doesn't count -- when they face Purdue (Saturday) in Indianapolis. XU's style of play is a lot like Kentucky, which handled the Boilermakers earlier this year. But while UK was able to neutralize Brad Mlller on the inside with Nazr Mohammed, Xavier doesn't have any such comparable inside presence. It'll be a good game, but Purdue should prevail in a squeaker.

Kansas may finally succumb to the close games it's been playing when the TCU track meet comes to Kansas City (Saturday). One TCU player scored 53 points in a game earlier this year. KU has shown its vulnerability to teams that can go on streaky runs several times already.

Flying under the radar are other matchups between teams that had higher expectations and have already disappointed: Illinois St@Ill-Chicago (Tuesday), Minnesota@Cincinnati (Wednesday), UNC-Charlotte@George Washington (Saturday), Fresno State@Minnesota (Saturday), Louisville@Georgia Tech (Saturday), Texas@Illinois (Saturday) and St Joseph's@South Carolina.

HOOP, LINE AND SINKER - Dec 22: Volume II, No. 8 - [] Top 25 Ballot

Sound And Fury

The college hoops schedule was pretty light this past week. Not sure we learned much about any of the major teams.

North Carolina turned in a solid performance on the road at Florida State. Vince Carter turned in a full 40-minute effort. He scored the ordinary points along with the spectacular. If he does that consistently, they'll be very tough. UNC has lost something at center without Serge Swikker from last year's Final Four team, but there is improvement elsewhere. Antawn Jamison has added some range on his jump shot and Shammond Williams' assists are way up. That's a tough backcourt now with a point/shooting/scoring guard in Williams and a point/scoring guard in Ed Cota. The weakness is still that they've only got 4 players who scare you (although Maktar Ndiaye is close to contributing some consistent offense). Their lack of depth will be the big factor that Duke can exploit when those two face off in February. And Williams is still the only outside threat game-in and game-out. For now, though, they'll do as the No. 1 team.

Purdue showed it could run with Xavier and (barely) survive without major points from its big men Brad Miller and Brian Cardinal. They're a versatile group of overachievers. That quality is good for regular season play, but they may not be such an intimidating tournament foe.

South Carolina doesn't have much going for it beyond the backcourt of B.J. McKie and Melvin Watson at this point. Clemson was able to abuse them on the inside all game long. LeRon Williams may eventually help up front, though. Clemson got just the kind of easy points (open jumpers and layups in transition) it needs in that game from Vincent Whitt, who got more playing time than usual in Terrell McIntyre's absence due to injury. Just because you call Greg Buckner a guard in the program doesn't automatically solve their backcourt problems. Buckner still is primarily a post-up player. Clemson needs easy points from outside the paint. For one game, they got them.

Can't particularly explain the lapse that led to Temple's two losses. They had seemed to be coming together into a solid Top 10 squad, but played flat two games in a row.

Playing in The Meadowlands, Princeton was supposed to beat Wake Forest, and they did. There was no shock there. The weakest part of the Tigers' attack is their outside shooting. They shoot lots of 3's and don't always look good doing it. But with that offense, they'll get lots of practice. By the time they run through the Ivies, this could a legitimate Sweet 16 squad.

The Christmas tournaments this week are, for the most part, second-tier events. Kansas should roll through the RAINBOW CLASSIC (Saturday-Tuesday) without any trouble. The PUERTO RICO HOLIDAY CLASSIC (Wednesday-Friday) does hold some interest with the likes of Arkansas, Michigan and TCU in the same field. Arkansas is the closest of those three to having itself together. Some more grudge match games are also on tap: UMass@UConn (Tuesday), Georgia Tech@Georgia (Tuesday), Illinois-Missouri (Tuesday) and Louisville@Kentucky (Saturday). We'll see if Florida State has anything left after facing North Carolina when Arizona comes to town on Tuesday. (Don't count on it.) Meanwhile, North Carolina should have an easy time pushing past Georgia on the road on Saturday.

Merry Christmas.

HOOP, LINE AND SINKER - Dec 29: Volume II, No.9 [- [] Top 25 Ballot ]

Now It's For Real
Preconference

We've pretty much hit the end of the preseason and are about to start the meat of the conference schedule for most teams. Ideally, you want to have worked in your new players by now and should have your team coming into its own when the "real" games get under[ ]way. But for a lot of teams, that just isn't the case. With so many players ineligible for the first semester, many teams have key players who are only just now getting into the lineup and will still need another month before they're firing on all cylinders. Plus, a few teams have had key injuries in the preseason and now have to go through an extended period of getting by until they can come back at full strength. The elite conference races look a little bit different than they did at the beginning of the season.

ACC: Duke and North Carolina have arguably been the best two teams so far. UNC had trouble guarding Georgia's 'Tweeners' who buried 3-pointers and should have beaten the Tar Heels. Shammond Williams was quiet and Carolina couldn't take control of the game. Elton Brand's fractured foot puts a damper on things down in Durham. They don't play Carolina until February, but they have to travel to Maryland this week in what is now a more winnable game for the Terrapins. Clemson looked good this week, but consistency isn't their strong suit. If they're going to make a mark in the ACC regular season, they'll need to come up big against UNC this Saturday. It's not quite the same grudge match without Dean Smith on the sidelines opposing Rick Barnes, but the carrot of knocking off the No.1 team is still there. Florida State showed it had the talent to compete with anyone by defeating Arizona at home. Their previous loss to Carolina may have already ruined their chance at a regular season title, though. This team is more suited to tournament play, anyway, being more talent than poise.

Pac-10: Arizona hasn't looked like the dominant No.1 team some people expected them to be at the start of the season, but they still look to have the inside track in the Pac-10. UCLA gets Jelani McCoy back this week, but it's not enough time for them to get themselves in sync before they visit the Wildcats on Saturday. Stanford is undefeated, but they are exactly the type of team that Arizona is made to beat: slow big men and mediocre guards. There's no tournament in the Pac-10, either, [x- so UCLA and Stanford won't get their second chance until the NCAAs -x].

SEC: Kentucky came through the preseason pretty well (despite the grudge match loss to Louisville) and seems like the obvious favorite in the SEC. But Mississippi quietly put together a solid effort. Arkansas, South Carolina and Georgia got lots more exposure, but that doesn't make them better teams. The Razorbacks made their rep squeaking by Fresno State, but that win doesn't look like much now and they've looked pretty bad against some bad teams. The Gamecocks are in big trouble without Melvin Watson, out due to injury, and it's not like they were playing that well with him. Georgia has talent, as their near-win against UNC suggests, but they're making it up as they go along.

Big 10: Purdue should sleepwalk its way to the Big 10 title. Their consistency of effort is what should give them their fourth title in five years (but don't expect them to win the inaugural Big 10 tournament). Michigan's story is the same as ever: enough talent to beat anybody, but they don't always show up to play. Iowa didn't play any tough teams, so the jury's still out, but they struggled against some bad teams. Indiana seems to be putting together a run. They don't have enough talent, though, to run through the schedule without some upsets here and there.

WAC: Utah and New Mexico have built their reputation with mirrors. They look good on paper, but they haven't actually beaten anyone of note just yet. Fresno State has fallen so far that even Chris Herren's return isn't enough to turn them around. They may forfeit the regular season title [x- in the Mountain Division to Hawaii -x]. TCU's style works better in nonconference and tournament games than it does in the regular season. The WAC regular season doesn't count, though, because of the ridiculous schedule. Wait for the conference tournament to find out whether Fresno really is the class of the league that, by rights, it should be.

Atlantic 10: The league didn't have such a great preseason. George Washington might be playing the best ball right now. Temple looked very good early, but closed December on a downward slide. Xavier doesn't have a good win to prove that it's an elite out-of-conference power, but inside the league they should still be the team to beat. Rhode Island struggled, but has a great shot to sneak a division title if it can go to Temple on Sunday and come away with a win.

Big 12: Kansas will win the Big 12 title (regular season and tournament) in its sleep, even with Raef LaFrentz sidelined for 6 weeks with an injury.

Big East: UConn is the only team that showed Top 25 ability in the preseason. Syracuse looked good on paper, but they were crushed by Michigan and looked as ordinary as expected before the season began.

Upcoming games to watch this week: Rhode Island@Stanford (Monday) in the first round of the CABLE CAR CLASSIC, Illinois@UCLA (Tuesday), Michigan State@Purdue (Tuesday), Iowa@Indiana (Wednesday), Purdue@Minnesota (Friday), UCLA@Arizona (Saturday), North Carolina@Clemson (Saturday), Duke@Maryland (Saturday), Indiana@Illinois (Saturday), South Carolina@Mississippi (Saturday), Marquette@Louisville (Saturday) and Rhode Island@Temple (Sunday).

HOOP, LINE AND SINKER - Jan 5: Volume II, No.10 [ - [] Top 25 Ballot ]

Triumvirate

The top 3 teams, each in their own way, turned in performances this past week that were worthy of the top spot. Duke and Arizona have already had their chance to square off and Duke and North Carolina will get their chance soon enough (next month).

I'm not sure there's another player who's impressed me more this year than UNC's Shammond Williams. Time and again, he has been the one who takes -- and hits -- the big shot in Tar Heel victories. Carolina may not be blowing away its opponents the way Duke is, but they're playing with such poise under pressure that you can't move them out of the top spot until they've been beaten. Greg Buckner lit them up in front of an emotional home crowd, and yet they were still able to keep answering every Clemson run.

Duke's lost both Elton Brand and Nate James for the season now. On the face of it, you could hardly say they were missed in the 30-point blowout at Maryland. A closer look, though, does cause a bit of a worry. Sure, they were able to find substitute points from Shane Battier and Roshown McLeod pretty readily. But the points came from the outside game, even from those nominally frontcourt players. Chris Burgess only scored 4 points underneath, in Brand's stead. That may not matter when you can shoot the lights out from 3-point land like Duke has shown that it can. Duke still hasn't shown that it can handle a tough game. They're not going to waltz through the NCAAs winning every game by 30 points. It's just not going to happen. These "All-Star Game"-type performances where a different player leads them in scoring every time out aren't making them a tougher team. Still, it's hard to hold it against a team because they're winning too easily.

Arizona played UCLA straight up and made them blink. The Bruins aren't used to losing a talent-on-talent game like that. UCLA's freshman guard Baron Davis fell for the macho challenge and failed badly, fouling out and not contributing much (5p,5a). Arizona's Mike Bibby let the game come to him and was a much bigger factor. The biggest factor, though, was the tremendous ability to score off the dribble by Miles Simon and Michael Dickerson. They put so much pressure on the Bruin defense with their shooting and driving to the basket. UCLA still has a lot of pieces to fit together, though, and they can get a whole lot better. Kris Johnson and Jelani McCoy both had big games and they've still only got a handful of games under their belts this season. Once UCLA figures out how to get everybody his shots in the same game, they'll be Final Four material. It might not come in time for them to win the Pac-10 title, but they've got bigger goals in their grasp.

Michigan State's win at Purdue was a shock, especially in how easily they raced past the Boilermakers. Sophomore Mateen Cleaves is [a] first-rate point guard -- ditto for Hawaii's Anthony Carter, by the way -- but it's not clear that this team is solid enough to make a real mark in the regular season Big 10 race. Rhode Island's win at Temple set them up for the rest of the season in the Atlantic l0's East Division. They'll likely be ranked from here on out. Hawaii's win over Kansas in the RAINBOW CLASSIC was legit, but they don't face a real opponent on the road until the middle of February.

Florida State has a tough week coming up, facing Maryland on the road and Duke at home. We'll get a chance to see if they're really an elite team, or just talents who've been helped by their home crowd. [I vote for the latter.] TCU has a rough week as well with games at New Mexico and at home vs. Fresno State. If Michigan isn't over its schizophrenia, here's a week where it'll show: they should win at Indiana and at home against Michigan State ... but will they?

Besides Duke@Florida State, there aren't any games upcoming this week that really make you salivate: TCU@New Mexico (Monday), Kentucky@Georgia (Tuesday), Michigan@Indiana (Tuesday), Florida State@Maryland (Wednesday), Fresno State@TCU (Thursday), Illinois@Iowa (Thursday), Duke@Florida State (Saturday), Michigan State@Michigan (Saturday).

HOOP, LINE AND SINKER - Jan 12: Volume II, No.11 [ - [] Top 25 Ballot ]

News From The Front

In their win over Florida State, Duke seems to have found an answer for the problem revealed in their loss to Michigan. Roshown McLeod stepped it up against the Seminoles when the Blue Devils needed big baskets and scored from inside and outside. It's still not the true low-post game they had with Elton Brand, but he has emerged as a leader in the clutch. Their 12-point win pretty much duplicated North Carolina's 8-point win in Tallahassee, so there's still no great indication which is the better team between those two. [Note: that's a different question than who would win the game when they meet each other.]

There were a couple of spectacular showcases the past week: Arizona was absolutely unconscious against Washington. It's the first game this year where all 4 of their perimeter players were on at the same time. Scary stuff. Individually, Chris Herren (who's back with Fresno State now) showed off his tremendous talent with a 33-point effort against SMU. There might still be some life left in the Bulldogs before everything's said and done.

Illinois is the surprise early leader in the Big 10. On paper, this team doesn't seem to have enough height or quickness to have done so well, but they're well-coached and have good chemistry. We'll see if that's enough this week when they host Purdue and travel to Michigan State.

Maryland righted itself last week with a solid win over Florida State and then held off NC State on the road. Now they get to host North Carolina. UNC is almost done already with all their tough ACC road games and January's not half over yet.

West Virginia, Miami and Syracuse just might help push the Big East past the Atlantic 10 this year. Last year, the A-10 was the better league and looked to be strong again this year, but it hasn't worked out that way so far. There isn't one killer squad that has knocked off any major out-of-conference opponents without any weak losses to cancel them out. Too bad there's no ATLANTIC 10/BIG EAST CHALLENGE. That would be a great event. All we get is this weeks' ATLANTIC 10/CONFERENCE USA CHALLENGE, but the wrong teams are playing in it.

Undefeated Stanford finally gets a Top 10 opponent this week when UCLA comes to town on Saturday. (Utah, on the other hand, won't face a Top 10 team all season long.) It'll be interesting to see if the Stanford backcourt can stand up to the UCLA pressure and get the big men involved in the game. The pace of the Washington-Arizona game was so frantic, Washington's center Todd MacCulloch was no factor. Stanford's big (but slow) front line may suffer the same fate. New Mexico center Kenny Thomas had a similar fate in the TCU game, but the Lobos had more than enough help from Clayton Shields and Lamont Long to make up for it. They travel to Arizona on Sunday for another up-tempo matchup. Clemson has a tough week coming up but point guard Terrell McIntyre still isn't right. They host Florida State and then travel to Duke.

Plenty of good games this week: Florida State@Clemson (Tuesday), Purdue@Illinois (Tuesday), North Carolina@Maryland (Wednesday), Arkansas@Kentucky (Saturday), Clemson@Duke (Saturday), Illinois@Michigan State (Saturday), UCLA@Stanford (Saturday) and New Mexico@Arizona (Sunday).

HOOP, LINE AND SINKER - Jan 19: Volume II, No. 12 [ - [] Top 25 Ballot ]

The Land Of The Blind

Out of the 24 ranked teams that played last week, 15 of them lost. Something is really wrong with that. I know that the overall talent level in college hoops is down because so many players are jumping to the NBA, but this far into the season you'd like to believe that more teams would have their acts together and turn in consistent performances. But, no...!!!

Maryland played their best game of the year in beating North Carolina in overtime and then looked like dog meat when they lost meekly at Wake Forest. Every time I want to believe in New Mexico, they face a team with guards who can push the pace and Kenny Thomas vanishes. It didn't hurt them against TCU, but UCLA and Arizona made them pay.

Last week, I wanted to put Duke in the top spot but didn't. Carolina took care of that for me by losing to Maryland. This week, I really want to rank Arizona ahead of Duke and Kansas ahead of Kentucky, but I haven't. I try to count victory and calibre of opponent as more important factors than margin of victory. It's tough to penalize a team because they didn't win big enough ... at least not in the middle of the season. There'll be plenty of time to rank teams by gut feel once the regular season ends.

Terrell McIntyre's injury has forced Clemson to use Johnny Miller, Tony Christie and Vincent Whitt more and it's helping them get some more easy points. They looked great walloping Florida State and almost stole a victory against Duke. The Blue Devils once again showed vulnerability not knowing how to behave in a tight game. Steve Wojciechowski isn't playing as well as he was early in the season.

Stanford made a believer out of me with their convincing win over UCLA. They have lots of depth up front and their guards were able to hold their own against the Bruins. They get Arizona in two weeks and just might be able to hold serve at home. Freshman point guard Baron Davis is getting overmatched in big games and it's hurting the Bruins.

The Big 10 race is a weekly roller coaster. Indiana has looked good at home lately with wins over Michigan and now Purdue, but they always look goot at home so it's tough to have real faith in them just yet. If only the same players would look good from game to game. That would help.

Cincinnati and Massachusetts crack the Top 25 by default. Nobody much looks good in Conference USA, but at least the Bearcats are undefeated inside the league. UMass has been playing reasonably well, but probably doesn't really deserve to be ranked.

No real blockbuster games coming up this week. Worth checking the scores on will be: TCU@Hawaii (Monday), Michigan State@Iowa (Wednesday), Clemson@Maryland (Saturday), North Carolina@Florida State (Saturday), Rhode Island@Cincinnati (Sunday) and Michigan@Illinois (Sunday).

HOOP, LINE AND SINKER - Jan 26: Volume II, No. 13 [ - [] Top 25 Ballot ]
Dog Days

Not much doing the past week in college hoops. No matter how you look at it, the top three (Duke, Arizona and North Carolina) are capable of playing in a gear that's above what the rest of the pack can deal with.

North Carolina played nearly perfect basketball against Florida State and won by 48 points at home. And Florida State was actually playing pretty well going into that game. UNC has the best halfcourt offense in the country. Their only loss this year was the Maryland game in which Maryland was able to exploit two of UNC's weaknesses at once: they had the 'Tweeners who could shoot from 3-point land and stretch Carolina's defensive forwards out to the perimeter as well as having effective scoring at the center spot against which UNC couldn't double-team. And the game still went into overtime. If you don't have both qualities, Carolina can deal with you. Georgia hurt UNC from the perimeter with forwards who could shoot, but it didn't have the inside center game to go with it. Florida State has effective inside players, but its frontcourt players can't shoot from the outside.

Of course, the big game that we're all waiting for is UNC-Duke, which is still another week away. Duke clearly has the forwards who can shoot 3-pointers. With Elton Brand, they also had a center who could score on the interior, but they don't have that anymore. The first meeting is at Chapel Hill, so it'll be very interesting. Earlier on this season, I'd have thought a Duke road blowout was in order, but the Blue Devils don't look so invincible lately.

Hope you caught the Stanford-Washington game the other day. It was a great finish with 4 plays back-to-back that could have won the game. This week is the big home showdown for the Cardinal against Arizona. The Stanford backcourt is pretty capable and the frontcourt has lots of muscle and depth. The problem for Stanford, though, will be that they only have 2 decent perimeter players and Arizona has 4 they can put on the floor. There's nobody on Stanford to keep up with the likes of Michael Dickerson and Miles Simon when they have to use Arthur Lee and Kris Weems to guard Mike Bibby and Jason Terry. Tim Young and Pete Sauer have been effective players in halfcourt games, but Arizona will probably push the pace past where those two can make major contributions. But Stanford should control the boards and maybe they'll be able to control the pace as well as long as Lee and Weems don't turn the ball over. Duke, Kansas and Florida State all beat Arizona by having enough muscle up front to make them pay. Stanford does have the right mix of players to pull off the win, and the game _is_ in Palo Alto. So just maybe there's a shot.

Utah finally gets to play a decent opponent this weekend when they travel to meet New Mexico. The Utes have a big front line and a canny forward in Hanno Mottola. New Mexico hasn't risen to the occasion yet this year against a truly elite team. They have the personnel, though. NM's Clayton Shields will be the best player on the floor, but the best point guard is probably Utah's Andre Miller. It's hard to set the pace on the road, though, so the game should favor New Mexico.

Stanford and Utah are this year's shining examples of "The Year After Rule". Both teams are still undefeated a year after one of their program's best ever players has graduated. [(]"The Rule" says that in the year after a superstar departs (and when enough of the supporting cast returns the next year), the returning players all realize they have to step up to fill the void and the result is a better, more balanced team that often goes on to greater success.[)] So far, so good.

Do you think Clemson will finally break the drought this year in Chapel Hill on Wednesday? They looked very good even in defeat against Maryland, but don't hold your breath against Carolina. Maryland gets to see if they can at least come within 30 of Duke this time around on Thursday. Duke hasn't been so dominant the past few games and the Terrapins finally seem to be getting used to using their depth and versatility as real weapons. But winning in Durham is still probably too tall of an order for that backcourt.

Key games this week: Clemson@North Carolina (Wednesday), Indiana@Michigan State (Wednesday), Arizona@Stanford (Thursday), Maryland@Duke (Thursday), Purdue@Michigan (Thursday), Massachusetts@Rhode Island (Thursday), Xavier@Temple (Saturday), Utah@New Mexico (Sunday), Michigan@Iowa (Sunday) and Cincinnati@South Carolina (Sunday).

HOOP, LINE AND SINKER - Feb 2: Volume II, No. 14 [ - [] Top 25 Ballot ]

Round One

The Arizona-Stanford game was outstanding. (Stanford's loss the next night at home to Arizona State takes a bit of the luster off of Arizona's win, but not too much.) For the first 20 minutes, both teams seemed to able to match each other's best shots. Stanford was playing a bit above their heads, though, buoyed by the home crowd. Arizona has looked this good in several other games. This was the best Stanford looked, and it still wasn't enough. Mike Bibby had a great game and Michael Dickerson was unguardable, but what really won it for the Wildcats was A.J. Bramlett's ability to get Tim Young in foul trouble with his quickness advantage. Pete Sauer did his best to keep the Cardinal in the game as long as he could, but without a heavy contribution inside from Young, they just couldn't keep up. Arizona takes over the top spot by virtue of this, their most impressive road win of the season. It'll only be a one week stay, though, as the winner of this week's long-awaited Duke-North Carolina game will be next week's #1 team.

Duke pounded Maryland yet again and seems not to have any weaknesses. Seems, mind you. Carolina fell behind Wake Forest by 17 points due to hot 3-point shooting, but their ability to get into a flow state that brought them back to victory was another impressive display. This team has a real champion quality to it and yet, due to the strength of this year's Blue Devils, there's a real shot they won't have any banners to hang this year. They could easily get shut out of the ACC regular season, ACC tournament, Final Four and national championship -- even though they're certainly deserving of any or all of those. Don't expect this week's game to prove anything conclusively about these two teams. Remember, this is only the first meeting of as many as four altogether this year. (Although North Carolina is very much more susceptible to being upset than is Duke, they are also the most effective halfcourt offensive team in the nation this year, and [(]executing in halfcourt is the single-most important ability a team can have[)].) In fact, this might finally be the year we get the dream matchup of Duke vs. UNC for the national championship. The obvious top four seeds for the NCAA tournament are EAST: Duke, SOUTHEAST: North Carolina, MIDWEST: Kansas and WEST: Arizona. This year the East plays the West and the Southeast plays the Midwest in the national semifinals, so form would make that Duke-Arizona and UNC-Kansas so Duke and UNC wouldn't meet until the final.

Round One is likely to go to the Blue Devils. The ability of their forwards to shoot the 3 is hard to believe until you've seen it in person and UNC's forwards don't defend well on the perimeter, anyway, so that will be a big advantage for Duke. The other big advantage Duke has is depth. If Antawn Jamison has to sit any length of time due to foul trouble, the Tar Heels are dead. Plus, they can't afford to run with Duke, either, or else they'll be tired out. The first time around, one of these factors is bound to catch them. In Round Two, they'll know better what they need to protect against and may figure out a way to win (but the home crowd will be a huge factor against them then). Round Three -- the ACC tournament final -- should be nerve-wracking. Round Four could be one of the great moments ever in college hoops. (We should be so lucky as to have that come to pass.)

Utah's near win at New Mexico legitimized their record even in defeat. They played very well in their most difficult road game of the season. Andre Miller is a solid pressure player at the point and that can take you a long way. Stanford's loss to Arizona State puts their legitmacy back in question again. They have a huge game coming up this week at Connecticut which will have major implications as far as seeding for the NCAA tournament goes. U-Conn won't be able to eliminate the Cardinal frontcourt threat the way Arizona did, though, and the Cardinal match up well with Khalid El-Amin and Richard Hamilton.

U-Mass just keeps coming on strong. They've got two more tough games this week against Temple at home and Xavier on the road and the way they've been playing, they could take both of them. They've got excellent balance between their frontcourt and backcourt and have turned in consistent effort every time out.

Mississippi is headed the other way. Back-to-back squeak road losses are a bad sign and they've got a huge game at Arkansas coming up. It's a well balanced team, but you've also got to produce the W's on the court.

If Fresno State was ever going to turn things around, it needed to be done by this week. But more player suspensions have depleted the talent-laden roster. Chris Herren is back and playing well, but he doesn't make them a Top 25 team by himself. They face Hawaii and TCU this week and they've already got bad losses all over their record. Only a sweep of those two WAC powers would rescue their chances at making the NCAA tournament.

Upcoming matchups: Fresno State@Hawaii (Monday), Massachusetts@Temple (Tuesday), Duke@North Carolina (Thursday), Mississippi@Arkansas (Thursday), TCU@Fresno State (Thursday), Stanford@Connecticut (Saturday) and Massachusetts@Xavier (Sunday).

HOOP, LINE AND SINKER - Feb 9: Volume II, No.15 [ - [] Top 25 Ballot ]

Signs That Might Be Omens

35 points in 53 seconds. That's one of my favorite stats of all time now. It's right up there with 21-for-22. (That's the stat from the UNC-Duke game on Antawn Jamison: he touched the ball on offense for a total of 53 seconds for the entire game and scored 35 points.) I've always knocked Jamison because he can't put the ball on the floor and drive to the basket very well. But this stat makes me see that I've overlooked one of his real skills: working to get himself into scoring position before he receives the ball. It helps tremendously that he's got teammates who can deliver the ball exactly where it needs to go so he can just turn and score, too.

The UNC-Duke game may not have been a down-to-the-wire nail-biter "great game" that people might have hoped for (and remember, this was only Round One), but it was certainly a great game in the sense of the quality of performance that the Tar Heels put on. The best thing about it was that the closing 24-4 run in the final 6 minutes after Duke had closed the gap to 4 was even more impressive than the original 20-point lead the Tar Heels had built up in the first place. This UNC team is just beautiful to watch on offense. They put so much pressure on you just trying to keep pace with them matching score for score -- just ask Georgia Tech, who got 32- and 30-point performances from Michael Maddox and Matt Harpring only to be outdone by 31 from Jamison and _42_ from Shammond Williams. Over the years there have been just a few teams that have been this enjoyable to watch no matter whom they play -- '82 UNC, '92 Duke, '95 UMass come to mind. This team isn't as dominant defensively as those, but on offense, they're a sight to behold.

Duke's big problem in the game wasn't wondering who their go-to guy was. Both Roshown McLeod and Chris Carrawell have established themselves as the leaders in the clutch that they've been looking for. The problem for Duke that remains is that they don't know what a good shot is. They're so used to firing away impossible 3-pointers and making them (and rushing to a big lead right out of the gate) that they never have any "must" possessions where they need a basket. So all they did was kept firing away from 3-point land. For one stretch, the 3's started falling and they crept back into the game, but they just kept taking those bad shots 'cause that's all they know how to do. They might get away with it and not ever have to learn, though, because there isn't another team out there that can do to them what North Carolina did. (Both Arizona and Kentucky [Kansas] are much more dependent on their defense to key their success.)

The other big game this past week was Connecticut's dismantling of Stanford. That one game will have far-reaching implications in the way [E]astern and [W]estern teams are seeded for the NCAA tournament. Much better UConn teams have been much more impressive in the regular season than this one, though, and still have underachieved come tournament time so resist the urge to read too much into this victory. Is Richard Hamilton really a Final Four-calibre player? Maybe not.

Much like UConn, Arkansas and TCU are teams that rely heavily on the shock value of pushing the pace all game long with fuil-court pressure defense. It can work against lesser teams with vulnerable backcourts, but somewhere down the line they'll run into the same situation Duke did where they'll have to execute in the halfcourt and the pressure defense won't be of any help then.

Stanford has another chance to stop the bleeding when it travels to UCLA this week, but the air is coming out of the balloon and they're sinking fast. Illinois' honeymoon is just about over, too. They've risen in the rankings due to consistent wins over teams they should beat while everyone around them was faltering. But this week they get Michigan State at home and Purdue on the road and they'll come back to the reality that they're not a dominant team. Florida State (at Duke and vs. Clemson) and Rhode Island (at George Washington and vs. Temple) have big weeks ahead that could reestablish their reputations. Mississippi gets one last chance before going down for the count when they travel to Kentucky.

Key games this week: Florida State@Duke (Tuesday), Rhode Island@George Washington (Tuesday), Michigan State@Illinois (Thursday), Stanford@UCLA (Thursday), Maryland@North Carolina (Saturday), Illinois@Purdue (Saturday), Mississippi@Kentucky (Saturday), Rhode Island@Temple (Saturday) and Clemson@Florida State (Sunday).

HOOP, LINE AND SINKER - Feb 16: Volume II, No.16 [ - [] Top 25 Ballot ]

Tag Teams

Last week's games were mostly about teams consolidating their reputations. We didn't learn much that was new. 11 of the Top 25 lost, including every one from 6 through 10. Complete teams are hard to come by, so the next thing you look for is versatility. If you can't be complete, do you at least have more than one way of winning a game?

Carolina got the expected payback against its lone OT loss to Maryland. The Terps didn't shoot well from 3-point land this time around, so it wasn't the same challenge. The important thing to note from that game was that UNC was able to get effective minutes from freshman center Brendan Haywood in the post. They'll need him somewhere down the line and at least he's shown that he can come through in spurts.

Illinois was impressive in a tough week. They blew away the Spartans of Michigan State at home. Part of that can be chalked up to the youth of MSU, but the Illini also played well in the first half at Purdue. What does Illinois have? They're not huge inside, but they have two 'Tweeners who can hurt you in Jerry Hester and Kevin Turner. The rest is depth and chemistry. (And coach Lon Kruger.)

Stanford and Mississippi stopped the bleeding. The Cardinal was vulnerable to UCLA's full-court pressure, just like they had been against U-Conn, but in station-to-station play, they were able to outdo the Bruins. Mississippi handled Kentucky's pressure much better than it had against Arkansas and found itself in the second half on the road at Rupp Arena -- an unlikely place for things to come together.

In the past, one of the things to look for in championship teams used to be the "power axis": a great point guard/center combination. (Hurley and Laettner from Duke '92 had "Final Four" written on them from Day One.) Nowadays, centers don't matter so much, but you still need more than one talented player. You still need that inside/outside combination, but it has just switched from guard/center to guard/forward. Lots of teams have more than one good player, but having two good guards or two good forwards isn't nearly as helpful. Teams can either pack it in or extend their defenses to deal with one-dimensional attacks, but it's hard to do both simultaneously. When you've got that "tag team" combination taking turns scoring from inside and outside, the defense can never settle down.

So which teams have stars inside and out? Start with Carolina. Both Antawn Jamison and Shammond Williams have had monster games that saved the day for their team. Mississippi has Ansu Sesay and Keith Carter. Arizona has a capable frontcourt without any single star player. Stanford and Massachusetts have solid frontcourt and backcourt units, but not stars in both places who can take over the game. All of these teams also have pretty good depth supporting their stars, too. That's about as good as you can hope for in these days of incomplete teams.

No major games coming up this week. Even UCLA at Duke has lost some of its luster with the loss of Jelani McCoy. Maybe Duke might stumble at Clemson, but don't count on it. TCU's winning streak against scrubs get[s] put to the test against New Mexico on Saturday. Georgia Tech seems to be putting things together and might break through this week.

Key games this week: Michigan@Michigan State (Tuesday), Penn@Princeton (Tuesday), Duke@Clemson (Wednesday), South Carolina@Arkansas (Wednesday), Rhode Island@U-Mass (Wednesday), New Mexico@TCU (Saturday), UCLA@Duke (Sunday).

HOOP, LINE AND SINKER - Feb 23: Volume II, No.17 [ - [] Top 25 Ballot ]

Getting Down To Cases

Yeah, Duke blew away UCLA. That's not the big news. The big news is the return of center Elton Brand. With him back in the Blue Devil lineup at center, they now have their inside presence returned to them. There's still the minor problem that Duke doesn't know what a good shot is, but they're so loaded at all spots now that it may never come to that. They've got such talented players that they can hit the bad shots they take.

TCU destroyed New Mexico at home even worse than the Lobos had routed them in Albuquerque. That says more about New Mexico than it does TCU, though. Now the only win of note on the Lobos' record is their home squeak against Utah (and they nearly lost that one). TCU has beaten all comers in their division, but they haven't faced Utah. They'll likely get a chance in the WAC tournament.

Is playing in a well balanced league a good thing or a bad one? Depends on the league. In the ACC, the tough schedule has beaten down teams like Clemson, Florida State and Maryland. All of them were Top 10 at some point this season, but now have fallen completely out of the Top 25. Florida State beat Arizona and Connecticut early on, but they've lost 7 out of their last 9. Nobody besides UConn can get on a roll in the Big East. The Atlantic 10 teams seem to have thrived on the high level of competition, though. 6 teams are playing pretty well, including surprising Dayton at home. In the Big 10 and the SEC, with a mix of good teams and bad ones, the powerful teams have been able to recover their form against the weaker teams even after they've taken some healthy beatings from the stronger squads. Then you've got a team like Princeton in the Ivy League who hasn't been challenged in conference all year long. The things that matter heading into postseason are how well you're playing right now and how adaptable your team is to different styles of opponents.

Teams with gimmick styles (Arizona, Connecticut, Arkansas, Princeton, TCU, Temple and Iowa) don't need lots of competition to make them strong. Their opponents will have to do most of the adjusting to their style, so what matters most is how well they've gotten their own acts together. More traditional teams (Kansas, Stanford, Purdue, Mississippi, Michigan and Massachusetts) benefit from playing competitive schedules so they can develop plans of attack against various styles of opponents. Arkansas, Temple and Iowa have been the most inconsistent of the gimmick teams. Kansas, Stanford and Mississippi have had the weaker schedules among the traditional teams.

In the major conferences, there's still one more week left in the regular season, but elsewhere conference tournament play starts up this week. In particular, the Mid-American (Ball State), Missouri Valley (Illinois State), West Coast (Gonzaga), Mid-Continent (Valparaiso) and Northeast (Long Island) all get going this week. Look for teams that know what they're doing, whether it's in a blowout or a knuckle-biter.

The "big games" this last week are mostly for show. They don't have much to do with regular season crowns and conference tournaments outweigh them, anyway. Still, for pure entertainment, we've got some good ones coming up. Round Two of Duke-UNC tops the list, but there's loads of clashes on Saturday. Temple's got a tough double on the weekend.

Key games this week: Xavier@Rhode Island (Tuesday), Arkansas@Mississippi (Wednesday), UNC-Charlotte@Cincinnati (Thursday), North Carolina@Duke (Saturday), Stanford@Arizona (Saturday), Purdue@Michigan State (Saturday), New Mexico@Utah (Saturday), Temple@Maryland (Saturday) and Massachusetts@Temple (Sunday).

HOOP, LINE AND SINKER - Mar 2: [ PRETOURNAMENT ] - Volume II, No. 18 [ - [] Top 25 Ballot ]

The End Is The Beginning Is The End

Round Two of Duke-UNC was as good as advertized. Roshown McLeod finished off Carolina with the big "game-winning" baskets, but it was Elton Brand, who took over the game in the middle of the second half, who was responsible for the Blue Devil victory. Brand punished the Tar Heels point blank, fouled them out and tired them out and set them up for McLeod to do his damage. Even though Duke won in a meaningful way, you have to be impressed with how North Carolina came out so focused in such an unfriendly environment. Duke was still taking bad shots for 3/4 of the game when they trailed 64-47 before Elton went to work. UNC's lack of poise late was as much due to fatigue as nerves. In Round Three, the ACC Final, let's see if Carolina can pace itself a bit better and if Bill Guthridge can use a better substitution pattern so that the game isn't on the line at the end in the hands of freshman Brendan Haywood.

Purdue and Michigan State played the most entertaining Big 10 game of the year so far. The Spartans must be in the Top 5 of alley-oops per game with Cleaves at the point and all those athletes to choose from on the receiving end. Still, Princeton could give both of these clubs lots of pointers on how to block out on your defensive boards. There's probably too much depth in the Big 10 for these two teams to survive to meet again in the conference tournament final so this game may have to do as far as resolving who was the best team in the league this year.

A home blowout was to be expected for Arizona against Stanford. so don't read too much into that result. It's just a bad individual matchup for the Cardinal and not necessarily an indication of how they'll do against other teams without such overwhelming perimeter quickness.

Chalk it up to parity and unbalanced scheduling, but the regular season is done and it's still not definite which is the best team in 6 of the top 8 conferences:

ACC: Yes, Duke won the regular season title and isn't nearly as vulnerable to upset as North Carolina is, but head-to-head you'd have to say that the Tar Heels have been more impressive. Maryland and Clemson need to make the semis to gain momentum for the NCAAs while Florida State might need to make the final just to get in.

BIG 10: Illinois hasn't gotten the respect they deserve despite being league co-champs. The tourney's in Chicago, so don't be surprised if it's the Illini walking away with the crown. Iowa might need to make the final to get into the NCAA.

SEC: Inside the league, Kentucky's rep ain't what it used to be. South Carolina's rep is way out of proportion to its actual accomplisments on the court this season. But the team with chemistry and momentum just might be the Mississippi Rebels.

A-10: This should be the most entertaining conference tournament of them all. So many regular season games went down to the wire and 6 teams are playing well. This may finally be the year Temple makes some postseason noise. The best kept secret inside the league is the Dayton Flyers. They could win it as easily as any of the other 5.

WAC: Yeah, Utah did all you could ask against the teams that they played and the WAC has lots of good teams, but the Utes hardly faced any of them. They didn't play TCU, Fresno State, Hawaii or Tulsa. Don't be surprised if they make "shocking" early exits in postseason play. Fresno State needs to make the final to get to the NCAA. Here's hoping for a tortoise-and-the-hare championship game of Utah vs. TCU.

BIG EAST: U-Conn is the class of the league, clearly, but Syracuse, St. John's, West Virginia and Miami (FL) are a grab-bag of inconsistency. Maybe the home crowd will spur on the Red Storm.

BIG 12: Kansas is in the league, I know, but who are the rest of these guys? Oklahoma State has be the weakest #2-seed in any of the major conference tournaments. The weakness of league competition is what may jump up and bite the Jayhawks in the NCAAs again this year. Yeah, they beat Arizona on neutral territory, but that was a big grudge match and a long time ago.

C-USA: You could probably argue that the MAC (Ball State) and the MVC (Illinois State) are stronger conferences this year, but Conference USA has the higher profile. Cincinnati and UNC-Charlotte still haven't sorted out which one is the better team. Cincy has quietly turned in a consistent season and the lower profile might help them advance farther in the NCAAs than they have of late.

Key games this week: Are you kidding? They're _all_ key games from here on out!

Check my web site (http://www.mindspring.com/~usul/hoops.html) for entry into my Hoops Contest for picking the NCAA tournament. It's nominally invitation-only and priority will go to friends, previous participants and friends of friends, but I'll open it up to as many [unsolicited] Internet entries as I can handle.

HOOP, LINE AND SINKER - Mar 10: Volume II, No.19 [ - [] Top 25 Ballot [Unreleased] ]

"Things To Do: Win It All"

The ACC Tournament was payback time for North Carolina. They faced all three teams which had beaten them during the regular season and came away with 2-1 records against all of them. That's the next best thing to an undefeated season. They were a 2-point road loss away from the regular season title as well. On neutral ground, they were clearly the better team against Duke. Although UNC is the only team that is capable of exposing this weakness, Duke's Achilles Heel is that it doesn't know what a good shot is. Early in the first half, when it was still a see-saw affair, Roshown McLeod hit a 3-pointer that extended Duke's small lead. That's a great shot to take when you're ahead and you're trying to bury your opponent. But late in the second half, with Carolina ahead, he and Trajan Langdon kept taking those same tough 3-pointers. Those are bad shots when you need to score on every possession. In the meantime, UNC extended its lead by scoring inside and making free throws down the stretch.

Maryland played great against UNC and lost due to self-destruction as much as UNC's determination under pressure. Still, they've done well to keep their act together playing in the same league as the top two teams in the country. The Terrapins have one of the most versatile rosters in the country. They can go sleek with three guards (Stokes, Jasikevicius and Kovarik) and two 'tweeners (Profit and Elliott) or they can go massive with one guard (Kovarik), two 'tweeners (Profit and Elliott) and two centers (Ekezie and Mardesich) and both lineups are effective.

Clemson matches up well against Duke. It's as simple as that. Terrell McIntyre is healthy now, but their offensive chemistry is still iffy. They need consistent contributions from Vincent Whitt to get them easy points on offense. Iker Iturbe is only effective against big lumbering teams.

Michigan's superior athletic talent allowed it to prevail over lesser squads from Iowa, Minnesota and a tired and depleted Purdue team. Their success over the weekend isn't necessarily a long-term trend. (Their second round matchup with UCLA, aka "The Battle of the Headless Bodies", should be wild and sloppy.)

Kentucky blew away a beatable Arkansas team and a severely overrated South Carolina team. They're good and solid, but are in no way on the same level as the likes of the top four teams.

The A-10 tourney was as good as advertized. Don't discount any of those teams in the NCAAs. The Big East tourney was also of a higher calibre of play than in recent years (but U-Conn didn't exactly blow away any opponent, did they?)

The NCAA brackets are interesting. With the top four being so strong, the traditional analysis of which is the tougher bracket gives way to checking the national semifinal pairings. While UNC's reward for beating Duke was a soft East Regional, they got the short end of the stick by drawing Arizona in the national semifinals rather than Kansas.

Princeton's draw is pretty good. UNLV won't be nearly so fearsome away from home. Eastern Michigan will actually be a more formidable opponent for the Tigers than Michigan State. Princeton's deliberate style will take MSU out of its comfort zone and will frustrate the Spartans who want to run at all costs. But EMU won't be phased and Earl Boykins will flourish against the smallish Tigers. A rematch against UNC in Greensboro won't be pretty. A focused North Carolina doesn't have a peer and they'll have an incentive to bury Princeton (and an incentive to beat Arizona in a rematch of last year's national semifinal as well, come to think of it.)

Duke won't see a tough opponent until the Regional Final. Even if it is Kentucky, they won't be headed. UK hasn't played anyone of elite calibre since Arizona ran past them in November (and Kentucky may not get past the Michigan-UCLA winnner).

Arizona will have a tough game against Maryland in the Regional Semis, but although the Terps do have great talent and versatility, playing at break-neck speed isn't one of their strengths. Cincinnati got a generous seeding being #2 in the West Regional.

Kansas will have more trouble in the second round against the Rhode Island-Murray State winner than in any other game in the Regional. The guard spot is where the Jayhawks are vulnerable, not up front. So teams like Florida State, Mississippi, and the winner of the Clemson-Stanford bloodbath won't bother them as much.

The NIT has a good crop of talented teams that couldn't quite put it all together. Should be very watchable as well.

Don't forget to send in your picks for the Hoops Contest at:

http://www.mindspring.com/-usul/hoops.contest.html

HOOP, LINE AND SINKER - Mar 16: Volume II, No.20

Your Ticket Has Been Stamped

Championship Week has its own special qualities. The ACC tournament was great from the semifinals on. The Big 10 tournament seemed like a good idea. Maybe it demoted the seeding of Michigan State and Illinois, but certainly it helped Indiana and Minnesota get their acts more together. But then, not having a conference tournament certainly didn't hurt the Pac-10, which placed four teams in the Sweet 16. The Atlantic 10 looked good going into the NCAAs, but only Rhode Island made it past the first round.

Dean Smith's no longer the coach at North Carolina and look what happened in his absence: Bill Guthridge went 30-3 as his replacement and the Tar Heels were poised under pressure in the NCAA tournament against the upset challenge of UNC-Charlotte. But the supposed likely candidates as Dean's long-term successor, Roy Williams at Kansas and Eddie Fogler at South Carolina, are already out of the tournament pondering bitter upsets for the second straight year. Maybe Coach Gut's 5-year contract is the best thing after all. It's hard to find fault with the competitive mettle of this year's UNC squad. While the 49ers were manhandling Antawn Jamison, Shammond Williams and Vince Carter came through in his stead. What more can you ask?

It's hard to describe how great it was to see Princeton play so well this year, be recognized (and probably overhyped in the polls) and then see them come through so well in the NCAA tournament to boot. They had the one gem of a performance against UNLV and they were tied with the Big 10 champs with two minutes left for a trip to the Sweet 16 in a game in which they weren't getting their backdoor lay-ups or hitting their 3-pointers. It was only Mateen Cleaves' individual brilliance that won that game for MSU. Cleaves will be a tough assignment for North Carolina as well, but at least the Spartans will want to play a wide-open style of play rather than the holding UNCC tried.

So I guess the four indisputable top seeds were really only three. Kansas never had the guard play to go with its All-America forwards and Rhode Island's backcourt of Tyson Wheeler and Cuttino Mobley certainly exposed that weakness. But more than that, I think, Kansas suffered from the softness of its schedule inside the Big 12. While North Carolina and Duke had to get up for each other 3 times in February and March, and while Arizona had Stanford and UCLA to keep it sharp, Kansas didn't play a national contender after the first week of December. Maybe it's time for a Kansas-North Carolina home-and-home series without Dean's objection to playing against "family".

Being too persuaded by the conference tournament success is always a trap. Michigan's win in the Big 10 tournament and Clemson's showing in the ACC tourney turned a lot of heads, but both reverted to form. Two blowouts by Arizona and one by Connecticut made many shy away from Stanford, but look who's in the Sweet 16 and who isn't.

Catch Sam Jacobson (Minnesota), Chris Herren (Fresno State) and Anthony Carter (Hawaii) in the NIT before it's too late. They may not make it through to the semis in New York, but they're the players to watch.

Mar 23: [NO COLUMN]

HOOP, LINE AND SINKER - Apr 1: Volume II, No. 21

[I missed last week due to computer problems: I was able to recover enough to keep the Hoops Contest going, but I couldn't get out an issue of H,L&S in time for it to be relevant. Sorry about that. -- Ron]

POST-TOURNAMENT: Blue Bloods

Save for last year's loss in OT, Kentucky pulled a three-peat in college basketball. (But the team that pulled the real three-peat, the Lady Vols of Tennessee, is the dominant team for the '98 season! Hope you caught them Sunday night and sure hope you caught the great documentary on last year's UT team that ran on HBO this weekend. People keep raving about the effect it had on their daughters to get such a great behind-the-scenes look at top-flight women athletes. It's hard to realize what's missing from the spectrum of media images until something comes along to make you wonder, "Where has that been all this time?")

This year's UK squad isn't the same kind of team as the past two. There's no superstar All-America player here. In fact, I'm hard-pressed to pick the best player on the team. No one guy stands out. They do have great depth, though, and a lot of good, athletic players. Utah did wear down against them in the final, but it wasn't the traditional "win by attrition" in which UK '96 and UK '97 specialized. Sheer size gave Utah a big advantage in their wins over Arizona and North Carolina. Size wasn't enough against Kentucky. The Utes did enjoy a huge rebounding margin, but they didn't have nearly so easy a time scoring. Andre Miller didn't completely dominate the game this time and Michael Doleac tired in the second half.

Stanford was holding their own against Kentucky in the semifinals until Pete Sauer's miscue changed the momentum when the Cardinal led 49-40. Still, I'd have had Sauer in the game in OT. He's the only forward they have who can create off the dribble. Instead, Tim Young fouled out quickly on a phantom call and Arthur Lee and Kris Weems forced bad shots when it mattered the most. Jeff Sheppard showcased his athlecism and shooting ability to secure the win for the 'Cats. Everybody's back next year for Stanford, but that's no guarantee the team will make it back to the Final Four. Things have to go your way just so.

It was obvious right out of the block that Utah was the geniune article against North Carolina. The Utes had that combination of size inside and shooting outside that UNC couldn't defend all year. Offensively, this year's Carolina squad was as beautiful to watch as any ever. But, defensively, they were never of championship calibre. Against most teams, that hadn't mattered. It did Saturday. Shammond Williams' entire season was fueled by the thought of redeeming his performance in last year's national semifinal against Arizona, but he turned in an equally disappointing effort this year as well. He psyched himself out more than Utah D'ed him up. Bill Guthridge took the same squad and duplicated last year's result (regular season ACC title to Duke, ACC tourney title to UNC, make the Final Four and lose in the semi). He's not Coach of the Year, but he sure didn't drop the ball. Jamison's kissing the floor has to mean he's gone, doesn't it?

This year's college basketball season seemed to be about 4 juggernauts at the top and a free-for-all beneath them. Utah and Stanford posted gaudy won-loss records, but they didn't have those "quality wins" to prove that they were legit. When the NCAA tournament came around, it turned out that what had been going on beneath the killer elite teams was the real story. The killers had it easy for a round or so, but everyone else was in a dog fight from the start in this year's tourney. Most of the gimmick teams (Arkansas, Princeton, TCU and Temple) didn't even make Sweet 16 and the two killer/gimmick teams (Arizona and UConn) fell short of the Final Four. The ones that made Final Four were no flukes. Kentucky was always a solid #2 seed and you could argue that Utah should have been a #2 seed instead of Cincinnati. The "Year After" Rule was in full effect for Utah and Stanford, which made the Final Four the year after superstar players graduated. Mostly, the tourney was won on individual matchups between teams rather than chokes by favorites.

Usually, you can look to the NIT for signs of which teams will be factors in next year's NCAA tournament. That doesn't really fit for Minnesota or Penn State, who graduate key players. For them, the NIT was about salvaging seasons that were disappointments. For Fresno State, there was such turmoil this season off the court that next season will be like starting from scratch again even though most of the talent is scheduled to return. For Georgia, the NIT third place finish may well be a sign of a solid season next year. They finally found themselves after the transition of losing Tubby Smith. The down side is now they're stuck with Ron Jirsa for the time being.

With an eye to next season, you'd have to expect Duke to be the preseason #1 team. So many of their players are back and Avery will be fully in charge at the point. A full season with a healthy Elton Brand will make a big difference, but they could use another combo guard in the backcourt to help their ball movement in the halfcourt.

Stanford returns everybody from this year's surprise Final Four team. Expectations will be high, but Stanford '99 might be a lot like Clemson '98 was this season. It's hard to maintain that team chemistry the second time around with the same cast. You start to think that you've already earned your spot in the postseason and don't work as hard. And without an injection of new blood to keep things fresh, it can go stale in a hurry. The Cardinal have too many players and not enough minutes up front and could use some more backcourt depth. With nobody graduating, they might not even get the benefit of a prize recruit based on their great postseason showing. Maybe some red shirts and some transfers are in order over in Palo Alto.

Hope you enjoyed reading HOOP, LINE AND SINKER this year as much as I enjoyed writing it. It forced me to pay closer attention to the season in order to come up with something to say each week. The high calibre of competition in this year's tournament was a great reward. To those of you who entered the Hoops Contest: we'll do it again next year. I'll have to come up with a tiebreaker system to avoid a repeat of this year's triple champions. I didn't have as many unsolicited Internet entries as I had feared so it was still manageable (except for the nightmare system crash last week!)

Take care,

Ron