Ghosts Of '92
Florida returns all five starters from last season's team that made a dominant run to the NCAA title. (Even Duke '92 only returned four starters.) Unlike a year ago when they were under the radar, this time around the spotlight and expectations will be huge for the Gators. Plus, they'll have to deal with the distraction of trying to go undefeated. The last two national champions that returned everybody the next year came up short: Arkansas '95 lost in the final to UCLA, and Arizona '98 lost in the regional final to Utah. Repeating is hard. Going undefeated is hard. That said, UF has a wonderfully balanced starting unit with all five starters averaging double-figures. Wish 'em luck. There are no fewer than 30 teams that return all their starters from a year ago. Most notably, Kansas' defending Big 12 champs also figure to be set to hit the ground running. (Florida and Kansas meet Nov 24 in Las Vegas in the finals of the LAS VEGAS THANKSGIVING INVITATIONAL.) Southern Illinois, Air Force and Oklahoma State also return intact. Look for veteran clubs to exploit more talented youngsters still finding their way, at least in the early part of the season.
The NBA has instituted a new rule barring U.S. players from jumping straight from high school into the pros; now you must be at least 19 and at least one year past the graduation year of your senior class before entering the draft. That means that lots of talented players who have been skipping the college ranks are now back in the mix (at least for one year, anyway). Only one player falls in the "too-good-for-college/The Next LeBron James" category: Ohio State's 7-1 cGreg Oden -- (if he's completely healthy after summer wrist surgery, expect him to dominate the college landscape). A few other players fall into "The Next Carmelo Anthony" group, hoping to pull off the one-and-done-national-champ thing: 6-9 fKevin Durant (Texas), 6-11 cSpencer Hawes (Washington) and 6-5 pPaul Harris (Syracuse) may only be around one season. Oden headlines Ohio State's "Thad Five" recruiting class (named after head coach Thad Matta) that could all be starting by season's end. Durant must lead eight newcomers for an entirely different Texas team that lost all five starters from a year ago. Hawes' Washington team lost its stars, but he and six other newcomers inherit an experience supporting backcourt. Harris won't make people forget pGerry McNamara, but he may make Syracuse more effective this year than they were last year behind their injured star. Even more impressive than Ohio State and Texas may be the overall depth of North Carolina's recruiting class: six-deep including three of the Top-10 altogether. Connecticut lost everyone from last year, but has nine talented newcomers on board. Duke lost its stars, but once again adds a crop of blue chips ready to step in. The consensus is that UNC's roster (which already features fTyler Hansbrough and lost only one starter) is by far the most talented in the land. The Tar Heels might even be too deep: that was a huge problem for UNC '94 when freshmen cRasheed Wallace, fJerry Stackhouse and gJeff McInnis took over from holdover national champs cEric Montross, fBrian Reese et al. -- (they were bounced in the second round by fBilly Curley's Boston College team) -- but, thankfully, coach Roy Williams' run-at-all-costs style does provide lots of minutes for lots of players. Can one of those recruiting classes really become "The Next Fab Five"? It's not as easy as it sounds.
The off-season musical chair act of coaching jobs was especially active among big names. One chain begins with the ouster of Quin Snyder at Missouri: enter Mike Anderson (ex-UAB), replaced by Mike Davis (ex-Indiana), replaced by Kelvin Sampson (ex-Oklahoma and its too-many-recruiting-phone-calls scandal), replaced by Jeff Capel (ex-VCU) ... and we're back in the Big 12. (See a pattern?) Despite doing a fine job as interim coach, Andy Kennedy wasn't retained at Cincinnati but wound up at Mississippi; Murray State's Mike Cronin, a Bob Huggins crony, took over at UC. Speaking of Bob Huggins: he's back in the game as head coach of Kansas State (Big 12, again). Welcome back Bobby Cremins (ex-Georgia Tech), who inherits a fine team at College of Charleston. Herb Sendek's fine record at N.C. State wasn't good enough for the faithful and now he's at Arizona State; player legends Sidney Lowe (ex-NBA) and assistant Monte Towe (ex-New Orleans) are now in charge of the Wolfpack. Legendary coaches Eddie Sutton (Oklahoma State) and John Chaney (Temple) left the scene in less than glorious fashion, but remember them for the bigger picture of their careers, not for the unattractive way things ended; son Sean Sutton steps up as official head coach at OSU, while Fran Dunphy (ex-Penn) moves across town to TU. Bob Knight only needs 11 more wins at Texas Tech to surpass Dean Smith's all-time wins mark of 879. (If only it could happen on January 8th against Bob Huggins at Kansas State!) Billy Tubbs (Lamar) has hung up his coaching whistle; same for Dick Bennett (Washington State, replaced by his son Tony Bennett). Louis Orr is out at Seton Hall, replaced by Bobby Gonzalez (ex-Manhattan); Matt Doherty moves to SMU, replaced at Florida Atlantic by former Kansas star Rex Walters; Paul Westphal is out at Pepperdine; Kyle Macy is out at Morehead State; David Henderson is out at Delaware; Ronny Thompson (Ball State) joins his brother John Thompson III (Georgetown) in the coaching ranks. And former Princeton star Craig Robinson is now head coach at Brown.
The preseason tournament landscape this year leaves a lot to be desired. Most of the Top 10 teams are staying away from each other, except for one-off head-to-head meetings. Two new significant events have been added: the ESPNU/OLD SPICE CLASSIC (an 8-team neutral-site bracket) and the CHICAGO CHALLENGE INVITATIONAL (two 4-team round-robin groups meet on-campus before the finals in Chicago). A couple of name changes: the GUARDIANS CLASSIC is now the COLLEGE BASKETBALL EXPERIENCE CLASSIC, and the COACHES VS. CANCER CLASSIC is now the COLLEGE HOOPS CLASSIC. Other than the LAS VEGAS THANKSGIVING INVITATIONAL final (Florida-Kansas) and the NIT SEASON TIP-OFF (North Carolina-Tennessee), there aren't any Top-10 matchups in the offing, anywhere.
We'll be dancing in Atlanta come March. Y'all come!!!
-- Ron
Too Early For Tea
Only one ranked team lost on the week: Arizona's house warming gift to Virginia in its new arena was a @93-90 Cavalier victory. This Wildcat squad has lots of smooth offensive players -- led by fIvan Radenovic(24p8r5a) and freshman tChase Budinger(17p5r4a) -- but it didn't display any clampdown defensive ability to take control when it counted. Much as he did two years ago as a freshman, UVa's pSean Singletary engineered the upset with 25p6a(13/14ft) along with tMamadi Diane(25p;5/6 3s). Charlotte won an @88-82 shootout over Hofstra (with all four starting guards with 20+ points), but gave it all back with a terrible home loss, @72-90, to North Texas (as tDe'Angelo Alexander shot 5-for-22). Ohio University whipped "L33"-bound Marist(Metro Atlantic), @83-66, despite 21p7a5r from MU's pJared Jordan; while Texas Tech beat likely "L33" Sam Houston State(Southland), @79-64, thanks to bJarrius Jackson's 27p6r5s and tMartin Zeno's 19p6r4a. Loyola Marymount edged L33 Oral Roberts(Mid-Continent), @68-65. What's left of Albany(America East)[L33] beat what's left of Bucknell, @55-49.
Ohio State's cGreg Oden likely won't see action until January as he continues to recover from off-season wrist surgery, but OSU's tDaequan Cook (22p9r and 18p9r, already) has plenty of wares to show himself. The biggest freshman spotlight so far falls squarely on Texas' tKevin Durant. The Longhorns are already his team -- he posted 20p6r and 21p13r5b in his first two outings. fQuincy Pondexter(21p7r) and tSpencer Hawes(12p7a5r) made fine debuts for Washington in its @99-91 win over Pepperdine (not to mention 25p12r from sophomore cJohn Brockman). bPaul Harris is blending in as a role player in support of the veteran upperclassmen at Syracuse so far. cBrian Zoubek(18p6r;10/13ft) made a solid debut for Duke. Boston College's fShamari Spears wasn't supposed to be up with this bunch, but his 23p6r debut says otherwise. Connecticut's new-look lineup struggled in its opener, only winning @53-46 over Quinnipiac (with 16p6r from bJerome Dyson). That leaves the SuperFrosh at North Carolina as the only big new names we've yet to see in a game that counts.
Georgetown struggled out of the gates with only a @69-59 win over Hartford. San Diego State actually claimed an Unwelcome Guest victory at St. Mary's SHAMROCK INVITATIONAL; but three wins by a total of 7 points don't make for ranking material (despite bBrandon Heath's individual heroics: a game-winning three-pointer one night, and game-winning free throws the next night). George Mason's 79-@74 win at Cleveland State (together with Hofstra's loss to Charlotte) may signal that the fairy tale won't continue for the Colonial this year. It may well go back to being a one-bid league. Bradley was supposed to be in rebuilding mode, but a @78-58 rout of DePaul could have major repercussions later on for conference power ratings. Oregon won its three-day showcase BCA CLASSIC even without tMalik Hairston (groin injury) in large part thanks to 5-6 pTajuan Porter (93 points in three games).
Duke, Texas Tech and Marquette won't have trouble advancing to next week's finals of the COLLEGE BASKETBALL EXPERIENCE (GUARDIANS) CLASSIC; but Stanford might not survive at home against the winner of Air Force/Long Beach State. Massachusetts might make things interesting for Pittsburgh in its COLONIAL CLASSIC round robin group before it hosts Florida State in a week. Connecticut's HISPANIC COLLEGE FUND-NORTH group should be no problem. Roy Williams has an excellent record in the NIT SEASON TIP-OFF going back to his days at Kansas; expect nothing different as North Carolina should handle Gonzaga and Tennessee/Indiana without much trouble. Illinois should handle Bradley in front of the home folk in the final pairing of the CHICAGO CHALLENGE. It will be interesting whether young Texas can get past depleted Michigan State and up-and-down Maryland in the COLLEGE HOOPS final rounds. Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Missouri State and Auburn should have some good matchups in the final rounds of the SOUTH PADRE ISLAND INVITATIONAL. Oral Roberts (at Kansas) and Norther Arizona (at Arizona) don't get it any easier this week. George Mason needs a home win over Wichita State to stay relevant this season. Creighton-Nebraska is a B-list "State Title" game.
The pre-set final of the LAS VEGAS [THANKSGIVING] INVITATIONAL:
Sat 24 Nov @ Las Vegas NV /Orleans Hotel Arena/: Florida vs Kansas
-- Ron
Mid-Nomers
The real mid-majors are those conferences who can send two teams in a good year, but may only send one team in a down year. Nowadays, that applies to the Mountain West, WAC, Conference USA and the Atlantic 10. The Missouri Valley and Colonial stepped a cut above (into "Junior-Major" status, let's say) last year; but this year it looks like the MVC will stay there while the Colonial teams are generally having a rough go of it early on. Except for Old Dominion, that is. The Monarchs took apart Georgetown in its on-campus gym, 75-@62. Butler may elevate the Horizon back to full "Mid-Major" status again, thanks to two heart-stopping wins against in-state rivals Notre Dame, @71-@69, and Indiana, @60-@55, in front of split crowds in Indianapolis to advance to New York in the NIT SEASON TIP-OFF as Mighty Mites 6-1 gA.J. Graves(28p;GW3, 20p;10/10ft) and 6-0 gMike Green(19p12a6r, 17p) led the way. (Don't expect the ride to continue in New York against the likes of North Carolina, Tennessee and Gonzaga; but give the Bulldogs their full due in this moment in the sun.) Air Force will crash the party in Kansas City at the COLLEGE BASKETBALL CLASSIC (GUARDIANS) CLASSIC after a tight 69-68 win over Long Beach State and then a 79-@45 thrashing of host Stanford, thanks mainly to fJacob Burtschi(22p5r, 24p12r;10/15fg).
The New York debut of Texas' tKevin Durant (21p9r, 29p10r) was as good as advertized even though the Longhorns split their two games in the COLLEGE HOOPS (COACHES VS CANCER) CLASSIC, losing 61-63 to Michigan State and winning 77-@76 against host St. John's. Durant is a wiry 6-9/204lb, has smooth offensive skills (three-point range, decent ball-handling), but he and his young teammates have a ways to go on team defense and physical stamina. MSU's gDrew Neitzel(16p6a6r;GWFG, 21p5a) drove the lane for the game-winning layup against UTx, but couldn't pull it off a second time against champion Maryland in the final. The Terrapins have more depth this year and used it to blitz every opponent except the Spartans, who were able to hang around and make it a halfcourt game. Despite losing their stars from last year, Michigan State's one holdover point guard has the Spartans on an even keel. (The same can be said for Villanova with gMike Nardi back to guide the ship after their great guard trio from last year departed. Of course, VU is much aided by the return of fCurtis Sumpter after sitting out last year due to knee surgery. The Wildcats played tough in a 66-71 defeat in the semis of the PARADISE JAM against Xavier, which is bolstered by the addition of Oklahoma transfer pDrew Lavender.)
Wichita State held up the MVC banner with a 72-@66 revenge win at George Mason (who beat them twice at the end of last year, in a BRACKET BUSTER game and in the NCAA Sweet 16). Creighton fell at in-state rival Nebraska, 61-@73, (despite 28p from gNate Funk). Southern Illinois will get its chance to shine this week in the new 8-team ESPNU/OLD SPICE CLASSIC at Orlando, FL. Utah State may make the WAC a two-bid Mid-Major again this year, thanks to taking the TOP OF THE WORLD crown (behind gJaycee Carroll's 27p, 24p10r4a, 21p). Pittsburgh (COLONIAL CLASSIC-NORTH), Texas A&M (SHELBY METCALF CLASSIC), Washington (TRAVELERS CLASSIC), Connecticut (HISPANIC COLLEGE FUND-NORTH CLASSIC) and Florida State (COLONIAL CLASSIC-SOUTH) all rolled to easy wins in three-day/four-team showcases. (Pittsburgh gets to have a real game when it hosts Florida State on Friday for the COLONIAL "NORTH/SOUTH" crown.)
Thanks to Oral Roberts, Saturday's Florida-Kansas matchup (in the pre-set final of the LAS VEGAS [THANKSGIVING] INVITATIONAL) is no longer #1 vs #2, but it's still likely the best preseason game we'll get to see. North Carolina won't run away with things against the likes of Gonzaga or Tennessee in the NIT SEASON TIP-OFF, but neither will they stumble. Wisconsin won't face any worthy competition from Oklahoma State, Missouri State, Auburn or Sam Houston State in the SOUTH PADRE INVITATIONAL. UCLA will likely have the toughest time getting past the likes of Memphis, Kentucky and even young Georgia Tech in the MAUI INVITATIONAL. Duke may struggle a bit against Air Force's size, but smallish Texas Tech and Marquette won't worry them as much in the CBE (GUARDIANS) CLASSIC. The PARADISE JAM Final (Alabama-Xavier) features a nice point guard matchup in pRonald Steele vs pDrew Lavender -- (look for the Tides' inside strength to prevail). Hofstra is off to an 0-2 start after two road losses (at Charlotte and at Manhattan), but the Pride could bounce back and take the weak field in the GREAT ALASKA SHOOTOUT, anyway.
If Winthrop can hang with North Carolina, no reason they can't do the same with Maryland on Monday. The MVC's two-year campaign for "Junior-Major" status continues this week as Wichita State travels to LSU and Creighton tries to double the pain of visiting George Mason, both on Saturday.
-- Ron
Holiday Alterations
A couple of stolen victories in front of the home crowd against in-state rivals -- that's all it seemed to be a week ago when Butler slipped past Notre Dame and Indianapolis and into the NIT SEASON TIP-OFF semifinals, right? Guess again. After shaking off the Madison Square Garden nerves (and a 13-point deficit), the BU Bulldogs took Tennessee's heart away and won 56-44 in a surprise. Not to be outdone, Gonzaga came back from a 10-0 deficit at the start to stun vaunted North Carolina 82-74 as fJosh Heytvelt(19p8r) displayed athleticism rarely seen in a 6-11 player. UNC's fTyler Hansbrough(9p9r) only managed to take 5 shots from the floor. In the Battle of the Bulldogs final, Butler led by as many as 17 in the second half before holding on for a 79-71 victory over Gonzaga to take the title. Butler is no fluke. gA.J. Graves(15p, 26p) is a great ball-control guard, they don't turn the ball over, they sink their free throws, and it's hard for opposing big men to extend out to the three-point line and play tight defense against the guards and 'tweeners who weave and screen until someone has an open look. They don't rebound that well and they don't even shoot a fabulous percentage from three-point range -- they can actually get better!
Duke destroyed Air Force 30-10 on the boards and had little trouble winning 71-56 in the CBE CLASSIC semifinal. In the final, though, Marquette's intensity and perimeter quickness ultimately made the difference as the Golden Eagles prevailed 73-62 behind a brilliant performance by gDominic James(25p7a). In the past, the Blue Devils have been caught by teams that could exploit their individual slow-footedness on defense, but this year's team doesn't have an unstoppable scorer like past squads to make that weakness irrelevant.
Less surprising, but no less impressive, was UCLA's run through the MAUI INVITATIONAL field. They handled Kentucky 73-68 and blew out young Georgia Tech, 88-73, in the final. GT's surprise appearance was made possible by a Jekyl-and-Hyde semifinal against Memphis in which the Yellow Jackets trailed by 19 points in the first half, but outscored the Tigers 62-39 in the second half. The Jackets are young, talented and a long way from being able to deliver a consistent effort. Memphis is very solid and a much better unit at this point, but UM just got swept away on a huge tide that they couldn't stop.
Alabama delivered a solid performance in taking the final of the PARADISE JAM, 63-56 over improved Xavier. Arkansas won the inaugural ESPNU/OLD SPICE CLASSIC in Orlando (71-64 over surprising West Virginia). California came out on top of the GREAT ALASKA SHOOTOUT, taking the final 78-70 over Loyola Marymount. Illinois won the CHICAGO CHALLENGE, 75-71 over Bradley. Oklahoma State was the winner of the SOUTH PADRE ISLAND INVITATIONAL, 73-70(OT) over Missouri State in the final; but the bigger story was MO State's 66-64 upset of Wisconsin earlier in the round robin.
The SEC (Alabama[P-JAM], Arkansas[ESPNU]), Pac-10 (UCLA[MAUI], California[GREAT AK]) and Big 12 (Kansas[LAS VEGAS-THX], Oklahoma State[SOUTH PADRE]) each took two of the eleven major preseason tournaments; with the ACC (Maryland[COLLEGE HOOPS/CVC]), Big East (Marquette[CBE]) and Big 10 (Illinois[CHICAGO]) taking one each; with the mighty Horizon (Butler[NIT TIP-OFF]) and the WAC (Utah State[TOP OF THE WORLD]) breaking through as well. The WCC had two finalists (Gonzaga[NIT TIP-OFF]), Loyola Marymount[GREAT AK]) but no winners. The MVC didn't win anything, but it had two finalists (Missouri State[SOUTH PADRE], Bradley[CHICAGO]), and Southern Illinois was one free throw away from taking out a mid-SEC team(Arkansas) to go along with beating a mid-ACC team(Virginia Tech) and a low-Big 10 team(Minnesota) during its ESPNU run; not to mention Wichita State's taking out its second Final Four team on the road (in a 57-@53 upset of LSU) and Creighton's win @58-56 win over George Mason. The Colonial is fading fast while the Atlantic 10 may yet have some surprises left in the preseason (e.g., Dayton's 68-64 win over Louisville).
The ACC-BIG 10 CHALLENGE (Monday through Wednesday) is the big event for this week. The marquee games are Ohio State (w/o gGreg Oden) at North Carolina and Indiana at Duke; but more interesting games will be Maryland at Illinois, Florida State at Wisconsin, and Michigan State at Boston College. There still doesn't seem to be a way that the Big 10 can win this yet. It says here: ACC 7, Big Ten(Eleven) 4.
On Saturday, the HALL OF FAME CHALLENGE in Phoenix features two great matchups: Gonzaga-Texas and Illinois-Arizona. On Sunday, the PETE NEWELL CHALLENGE in San Jose is slightly lesser with Nevada-California and Texas Tech-Stanford.
-- Ron
Tumblin' Down
North Carolina's @98-89 win over talented Ohio State was a highlight reel for both rosters. OSU's gRon Lewis(30p;11/16fg) was great as the Buckeyes led for most of the game on the road until the home crowd pulled the young Tar Heels through. UNC's fTyler Hansbrough(21p14r) thrived against a weak Ohio State frontline, but later in the week in the Tar Heels' @75-63 win against Kentucky, he was shut down (7p3r;2/10fg) once again against a quality big man, UK's 6-11 cRandolph Morris(21p7r;10/11fg). cGreg Oden made his first appearance for Ohio State on Saturday against Valparaiso with a 14p/10r/5b performance in OSU's easy @78-58 win. (Even so, the Buckeyes were still outrebounded, 28-36, by the lowly Crusaders.)
The ACC rolled to an 8-3 win in the ACC-BIG 10 CHALLENGE, as Maryland won 72-@66 at Illinois, Boston College won @65-58 vs Michigan State, and Duke edged Indiana, @54-51. Only Wisconsin posted a quality win for the Big 10 with a convincing @81-66 win over Florida State (before the Seminoles regrouped later in the week to topple Florida).
{North Dakota State}, which is still only a Provisional Division-I school, pulled off the Unwelcome Guest bit, and knocked off Marquette, 64-@60, to take the BLUE AND GOLD CLASSIC crown. (Remember, these same guys won at Wisconsin last year.) They're not eligible for anything in the postseason, but give 'em a shoutout for the here and now.
Only a couple of late free throws by tCarl Elliott(16p5a7r) preserved a win for the home folks in the BB&T CLASSIC triple-header on Sunday as George Washington edged Virginia Tech, @63-62. Bucknell knocked off George Mason, 60-@57 and 5-1 Notre Dame came back to knock off Maryland, 81-@74. (The Irish' only loss is a @69-@71 buzzer-beater at the hands of Butler in the NIT SEASON TIP-OFF.)
Gonzaga continues to look great, posting another solid win, 87-77 over Texas in the HALL OF FAME CHALLENGE (despite 29p/9r from UTx's fKevin Durant). The 'Zags have already faced some of the premier talent that's out there and they've come through it well. (This week offers more young stars when they host Washington on Saturday in their annual in-state grudge match.) Arizona took advantage of undermanned Illinois, winning @84-72 in the second part of the HOF double-header.
Wichita State led by 19 points, 59-40, on the road in the Carrier Dome before Syracuse came all the way back to tie things up at 61, but the Shockers won the endplay, 64-@61, for their third impressive road victory of the season already. They don't have standout individual talent, but they win big games. Oregon won on the road at Georgetown, 57-@50, to add some legitimacy to its undefeated record. Likewise, 9-0 Missouri (now under the guidance of ex-UAB coach Mike Anderson) posted a solid @86-64 rout of Arkansas to give itself a calling card for a national ranking.
Some early league games are already getting under way. Young Georgia Tech faltered right out of the blocks, losing 82-@90 at 5-3 Miami(Florida). Boston College hosts Maryland on Sunday.
Texas A&M finally gets to test itself this week against some real competition: at LSU on Tuesday, and on the road in Anaheim on Saturday against UCLA in the JOHN WOODEN CLASSIC. (Whereas Connecticut won't play anybody legit until January.) Some of the better "State Title" games are up this week: Memphis at Tennesee on Wednesday, plus Washington at Gonzaga, Wisconsin at Marquette and UNLV at Nevada on Saturday. (Too bad we won't get to see Kansas-Wichita State, Illinois-Southern Illinois, Missouri-Missouri State or even Maryland-Georgetown this year.) Indiana at Kentucky (Saturday) has less luster than in years past. A few good inter-sectional games on tap are Oklahoma State at Syracuse (JIMMY V CLASSIC on Tuesday), Alabama at Notre Dame (Thursday), Xavier at Creighton (Saturday), and Southern Illinois at Western Kentucky (Saturday).
-- Ron
Broken Borders And States' Rights
LSU and Texas A&M battled, with the Tigers winning @64-52 as cGlen "Big Baby" Davis had 24p/10r and LSU's defensive stopper gGarrett Temple held the Aggies' gAcie Law to 4p/3a on 1-for-11 shooting. Texas A&M (and Law) fared a little better in the JOHN WOODEN CLASSIC, playing it close all the way with UCLA before coming up short 62-@65 (as Law finished with 21p/4a on 10-for-20 shooting). LSU fought with another neighbor as Texas was able to prevail @76-@75(OT) in front of a split crowd in Houston. UTx's cKevin Durant(10p11r4a) and LSU's cDavis(21p10r3a) played second fiddle to emerging teammates pD.J. Augustin(25p5a6r) and tTasmin Mitchell(23p10r6a) as the Tigers were unable to stop Augustin's lefty drives to the basket. If Augustin can continue to be an equal Tag Team partner to Durant, then the Longhorns have a shot at some ahead-of-schedule results this season to match up with their fantastic potential. LSU's backcourt is still a work in progress, but this week did represent the team's best results.
Southern Illinois won 75-@70 at Western Kentucky in one cross-border clash this past week and will again test its limits when it travels to Indiana on Sunday. (That MVC bubble just won't burst.)
Arizona and Oklahoma State were travelling buddies this past week as they turned in double-feature victories on two coasts. First, UofA downed Louisville 72-65 while OSU edged home-state Syracuse 72-@68 in the JIMMY V CLASSIC in New York on Tuesday. Then, on Saturday, the Wildcats thumped host San Diego State 69-@48 while the Cowboys drubbed Ball State 75-56 in the SAN DIEGO SLAM. Speaking of Unwelcome Guests, 3-4 San Diego came away the winner of the GOLDEN BEAR CLASSIC over host California, 72-@67 in the final.
Notre Dame followed up a road win over Maryland with a home victory over Alabama, @99-85, as the threes came raining down from the perimeter trio of tRussell Carter(27p5r5s;6/11 3s), gColin Falls(20p4a) and gKyle McAlarney(20p). Donut Teams -- (sweet on the outside with a hole in the middle) -- the Irish, Butler, Oregon, Washington State, Tennessee, West Virginia (and even Ohio State before cGreg Oden joined them) -- have had lots of success early in the preseason. It's the kind of style that's good for a one-game upset (or, say, a first-round NCAA splash), but not necessarily good for consistent results over the long haul since the outside shots need to fall to ensure the win.
Purdue routed Loyola-Illinois (Butler's main obstacle in the Horizon League) and previously undefeated Missouri in a couple of big home games, led by fCarl Landry (22p8r and 23p12r). Saturday's in-state clash with Butler in the JOHN WOODEN TRADITION could kick the Boilermakers' season into another gear.
Boston College righted itself with an early league game home victory, @73-62, over visiting Maryland. Even without last year's frontcourt partner Craig Smith, BC's fJared Dudley still does lots of damage all on his own (20p11r3a vs MD).
Things slow way down this week -- the only clash between ranked teams is Saturday's matchup when Pittsburgh visits Wisconsin. Some lesser Border War / State Title clashes sprinkle the schedule the next 7 days. Louisville has a chance to take next week's headline with home games against Massachusetts (Wednesday) and Kentucky (Saturday).
Texas Tech's coach Bob Knight passed Adolph Rupp for second-place on the all-time wins list this past week. He's up to 877 career victories and needs two more to tie Dean Smith. (Knight will most likely be passed by Duke's Mike Krzyzewski some day, though. Meanwhile, North Carolina's Roy Williams hit 500 victories faster than anyone else in history.)
-- Ron
Straw Poll
While Kansas' fJulian Wright (21p10r vs Florida) and Gonzaga's fJosh Heytvelt (19p8r vs North Carolina) have also turned in Player-of-the-Year single game performances that rival this one, it's Tucker who is having the more consistently outstanding year so far. Another early candidate is Tennessee's gChris Lofton, who had 32 points of his own in the Volunteers' @93-79 win over visiting Western Kentucky. UTn isn't as strong a team overall, but Lofton's shooting and versatility scoring on jumpers and driving the lane have been impressive.
A less obvious candidate is Butler's gA.J. Graves. The Bulldogs completed their neutral-site sweep of their major state rivals (first Notre Dame, then Indiana) with another squeaker, @68-@65 over Purdue in the JOHN WOODEN TRADITION as Graves led the way with 25 points. We wouldn't be mentioning that school's name this year if not for him. After one more home game this week against in-state Evansville (one of the few MVC teams that hasn't made any kind of a mark this season), the Bulldogs get to coast through the Horizon League schedule until a BRACKETBUSTERS home game in late February.
LSU's fGlen Davis has been solid (but his team is much more plodding this season so far with subpar guardplay). UNC's fTyler Hansbrough didn't show up in two games against quality big men (fJosh Heytvelt of Gonzaga, cRandolph Morris of Kentucky), but otherwise has been strong. Alabama's pRonald Steele has been in and out of the lineup with injuries so far this year. cKevin Durant has been spectacular, but only now has his Texas team begun to perform at a level that warrants his nomination. cGreg Oden has scored on easy dunks, blocked shots in the lane and grabbed double-figure rebounds so far, but that's mostly a result of his 7' frame and not any special performance by him so far. (We might get to see one on Saturday, though, when Ohio State travels to Florida, as last year's would-have-been-#1-draft-pick, cJoakim Noah, meets this year's sure-to-be-#1-draft-pick, Oden, head-to-head.)
Georgia's surprising @96-83 win over Gonzaga in Atlanta is a landmark for the school. It officially marks the end of the "Post-Jim Harrick Era" dating back to the NCAA sanctions that came at the end of the 2003 season. Call it the official beginning of the "Dennis Felton Era" at UGA. The 'Dawgs have a real team with a real win to go along with the blowouts over scrubs earlier this season. Some bargain basement frontcourt players to do the dirty work of rebounding and earning fouls allowed the solid perimeter trio of gLevi Stukes(25p), tSundiata Gaines(21p5a8r6s) and bMike Mercer(19p7r4a) to shine against the GU Bulldogs, who seemed not to have any answer defensively inside or outside. The 'Zags now have three losses to teams that otherwise might not be on the map this season (Washington State, Georgia and, to a lesser extent, Butler). Their win over North Carolina in the NIT SEASON TIP-OFF was probably ahead of schedule for what was supposed to be rebuilding year. A Second-10 ranking is probably more realistic for this squad.
The MVC's overachieving start to the season is beginning to recede. Southern Illinois stayed with host Indiana for most of the game, but the Hoosiers' late burst in front of the home crowd spurred them on to a @57-47 victory. SIU lacks height but gets away with playing very physical defense, but on offense they rarely have more than two players in double-figures among gJamal Tatum, fRandal Falker and bruiser fMatt Shaw. Creighton's gNate Funk hasn't been able to return to his previous form so far and the Bluejays may not be able to be the Top 25 contenders that was expected of them. Bradley still doesn't have a signature win to go along with its solid play (and two tricky home games are up this week: Loyola(Illinois) on Tuesday and Southern Mississippi on Saturday). Wichita State and Missouri State have done all you could ask with their schedules, but they both have more tough games this week coming up: WSU in the LAS VEGAS [CHRISTMAS] CLASSIC (USC, Kansas State, New Mexico), MSU at rival St. Louis on Monday.
Oklahoma State's undefeated record faces some heavy obstacles with a tough road game against Tennessee in Nashville on Monday and an even tougher home game against Pittsburgh on Thursday in the ALL-COLLEGE CLASSIC. When's the last time that the Georgia-Georgia Tech basketball game featured a ranked team when the Illinois-Missouri BRAGGIN' RIGHTS game didn't? Virginia should be the class of a weak field in the SAN JUAN SHOOTOUT (Vanderbilt, Utah) from Tuesday through Thursday. Creighton, Charlotte and Houston are all in search of their lost mojo in the RAINBOW CLASSIC Wednesday through Saturday (but it's Nebraska that has it). Can Gonzaga beat both North Carolina and Duke in the same season? They'll get to try for the double against the Blue Devils on Thursday in the AEROPOSTALE CLASSIC in New York. Arizona's fastbreak O meets Memphis' full-court pressure D on Wednesday in the FIESTA BOWL CLASSIC.
Texas Tech's intensity level shocked Arkansas in Little Rock as the Red Raiders won 71-@56 to give coach Bob Knight career win #878, one shy of the all-time record. He can tie Dean Smith on Saturday against Bucknell.
-- Ron
"Maceo! Take It To The Bridge!" *
To watch them play, it certainly appears that this is one of the least talented Duke teams in recent years. Yet, on paper, they have quite a few wins already over teams having solid seasons. The Blue Devils' @61-54 win over Gonzaga in their home-away-from-home game in the AEROPOSTALE CLASSIC in New York was a strong defensive effort (holding GU's fJosh Heytvelt to 10p4r and gDerek Raivio to 4p0a). (Gonzaga's killer preseason still isn't over -- they host Nevada on Saturday in the BATTLE IN SEATTLE.)
Tennessee bolts back into the rankings after a couple of nail-biter wins in front of partisan home crowds. First, it was tDane Bradshaw's game-winner that beat Oklahoma State in Nashville, @79-77. Then, it was bChris Lofton's 35p11r effort that led the way in UTn's @111-105(OT) win over UTx (as Texas' fKevin Durant had 26p8r) in a shootout featuring two likely first team All-America players. Oklahoma State prevented a plunge in its ranking with yet another squeaker of its own, a @95-89(2OT) win over Pittsburgh in the ALL-COLLEGE CLASSIC. It's a measure of how soft the rankings are that Tennessee is in the Top 10 while Texas has fallen all the way out this week. Texas has gone down to the wire with four quality teams already (beating LSU and Arkansas, losing to Michigan State). Oklahoma State won tight games with Syracuse and Missouri State. Any of those results could easily have gone the other way and these teams would be completed reshuffled.
The MVC had a chance to claim two major preseason tournament titles, but it didn't happen. Wichita State waltzed into the LAS VEGAS CHRISTMAS CLASSIC undefeated, with a Top-10 ranking and plenty of travelling supporters in tow, but lost twice in Sin City, @68-71 to New Mexico and @56-60 to USC. The Shockers have a decent team that plays smart basketball, but they were just outmuscled by teams with more physical talent. It was unheralded Kansas State that won the title, mostly because it had the best roster of athletes and played grinding defense on its way to a couple of ugly victories. In the RAINBOW CLASSIC, Creighton did make it to the final, but lost badly 60-@76 to host Hawaii (although the Bluejays did get 25p5r3a from bNate Funk). Missouri State lost a squeaker, 50-@51, to in-state rival St. Louis. Not such a bad result, except that North Carolina came in later the same week and routed the Billikens, 69-@48. Despite their early squeak win over Wisconsin, MoState doesn't belong near the Top 10 (and with everyone bunched up so tightly this week, that one point loss sent them tumbling all the way out of the rankings entirely). It was Drake that actually came away with an Unwelcome Guest win in the SUN BOWL TOURNAMENT over feisty Jackson State. (JSU may well end up in the Play-In game come March, but they have had several good wins for a team from the 1BC-SWAC, including 100-@97 over host UTEP. Remember them.) Playtime is over, though. The MVC WARS start up this week as the regular season gets under way early. (Only 2 of the 10 MVC teams, Evansville and Illinois State, failed to make any noise on the national scene in the preseason.)
Washington's huge frontline gave LSU all kinds of trouble as the Huskies rolled to an easy @88-72 win with UW's cSpencer Hawes(23p12r) and cJon Brockman(19p14r) dominating LSU's fGlen Davis(8p9r). With gSundiata Gaines sitting out with an ankle injury, Georgia's backcourt had trouble handling the ball and handling Georgia Tech's frontline of cThaddeus Young(24p10r) and fRa'Sean Dickey(15p9r) in GT's @78-69 home win. Drexel handed Syracuse yet another home loss this year, winning 84-@79 in the Carrier Dome.
It's been a while since the Southern Conference has made much noise nationally. This may be the year. Appalachian State was the surprise winner of the SAN JUAN SHOOTOUT, beating both Virginia and Vanderbilt along the way. Davidson, featuring freshman gStephen Curry (son of former NBA player Dell Curry), has had a solid season so far and was its own Unwelcome Guest winner of the ASU CLASSIC, beating Ohio University and host Arizona State.
Texas Tech's win over Bucknell tied coach Bob Knight with Dean Smith for #1 on the all-time career wins list at 879. He'll be alone at the top if TxTech can beat a decent UNLV team on Thursday.
A few specialty preseason events remain, but some conference play has already begun. (Boston College beat Maryland weeks ago.) UCLA hosts Washington (Sunday), Missouri State travels to Creighton (Saturday), George Mason visits Drexel (Thursday). Georgia has a tough week ahead, first visiting Clemson on Thursday in a Battle of Pretenders to see if either one of those teams is for real; then, it gets to host very real Wisconsin on Sunday.
"Hit me! Unh!"
-- Ron
[* - Maceo Parker was the lead horn player in James Brown's band.]
Déjà Vu
Connecticut's revamped lineup failed its reality check on the road against West Virginia's revamped lineup, as the Mountaineers were in control throughout their @81-71 win. Only fFrank Young(22p) returns as a mainstay from last year for WVU. It's the system, stupid, and coach John Beiheim has his charges well ahead of Jim Calhoun's. UConn still doesn't know who its go-to players are yet. They have a lot to sort out, and all those cupcake games in front of the home folk may not have gotten this team ready for conference play after all. Oregon's undefeated team hasn't been much tested, either; but at least this is a squad returning all five starters from last year that has added some freshman talent as well. They were always much less suspect (but it's baptism by fire for the Ducks this week as they first must avoid a tricky home game against USC on Thursday just to get to The Battle Of The Unbeatens on Saturday when they host UCLA). Clemson returned a veteran nucleus from last year's 19-13 squad, but better Clemson teams than this one have rolled through the preseason impressively with high hopes only to be beaten to a pulp by the rough ACC regular season. Their @75-60 win over surprising Georgia (playing without its point guard) doesn't really validate their ranking, but it's close enough. Better news for this year's Tigers is that, aside from North Carolina, most everyone else in the ACC is highly suspect and has shown vulnerability to go along with their talent. A less talented, focused team coached by Oliver Purnell might do very well in the regular season.
Xavier showed some signs of life with a @65-59 win over visiting Illinois behind 17p5a from pDrew Lavender. UNLV temporarily spoiled the celebration in Lubbock for Bob Knight, beating Texas Tech 74-@66 (thanks to 21p5r3a from the coach's son, bKevin Kruger). Air Force was an Unwelcome Guest winner of the CABLE CAR CLASSIC at the expense of host Santa Clara, 78-@48 (as the Falcons shot 16-for-30 on three-pointers). Likewise, Colorado State spoiled the party, winning the DR. PEPPER CLASSIC, 76-@65, over host Chattanooga. Even 2-10 Delaware was able to take two out of three games, claiming the crown at the EXPLORER CLASSIC hosted by La Salle. Hofstra beat host St. John's in the all-New York final of the HOLIDAY FESTIVAL, @63-@51. Elsewhere, LSU swept its three-day round-robin showcase HISPANIC COLLEGE FUND-SOUTH CLASSIC (and gets to claim the overall NORTH/SOUTH crown when it hosts Connecticut on Saturday). Marist and College of Charleston each won their own traditional two-day bracket showcases.
UCLA got off to a great start in the rough Pac-10, escaping @55-52 against feisty Washington State and then crushing Washington @96-74. While the Bruins are playing better ball this week, Florida's tougher schedule gives the Gators the nod as the official #1 for the preconference season. Could we really be headed for a repeat national championship game? (We've had Final Four rematches in consecutive years before -- remember Duke-UNLV in 1990 and 1991? -- but the only time it happened in the final was when Cincinnati defeated Ohio State in 1961 and 1962.) Butler's win at the NIT TIP-OFF was the biggest news of the preseason. The Bulldogs have continued to play solidly, so they've become another Gonzaga: a can't-miss NCAA bid for a team from a One-Bid-Conference -- and Butler plays close games so an upset in the Horizon League is a big worry. Oral Roberts' shocking win at Kansas is already just a footnote. The Golden Eagles have since struggled to a 6-7 record and that one big win won't guarantee them anything if they don't win the Mid-Continent tournament. The superfrosh at North Carolina and Ohio State have cruised through the preseason just fine, but may yet have another level once they get toughened up by league play. Meanwhile, for the youngsters at Texas and Georgia Tech, it's been more of a mixed bag, especially defensively where neither team has been especially focused. The MVC teams were fantastic the first part of the preseason, with both Wichita State and Missouri State flirting with the Top 10. While most every league team did something noteworthy, they've all faded just below the rankings as conference play starts (and if WSU doesn't get it together this week, they could easily find themselves 0-4 seven days from now and in a real fight just to get an NCAA bid).
Conference play gets under way for everyone this week. The MVC has established itself as The Seventh Major, with multiple teams capable of pulling off a Top-25 win. Butler moved the Horizon League into Major/1BC status along with Gonzaga and the WCC. The Atlantic 10 may return to multiple-bid status while the Colonial will likely fall back into the 1BC mix. Despite its up-and-down season, Oral Roberts proved it could make a major splash (as did Provisional D-I {North Dakota State} for the second straight year). Also with that potential likely are Akron, Western Kentucky, Winthrop and Marist. Everyone beyond that are first-round losers. (If Jackson State gets relegated to the Play-In game, they'll be a huge favorite over anyone else.)
Here's a quick summary of the conference rated by their biggest win/depth of quality teams:
-- Ron
Power Pac
A lesser standard of individual talent, maybe, but no less of a competitive spirit in every game is taking place in the MVC. Northern Iowa was the least of the "name" league teams as far as preseason results; but, lo and behold, in The Year After star guard Ben Jacobson departed, his supporting cast is 4-0 atop the league standings. Even so, it's probably Missouri State that's the Best of the Best of this league. The Bears would be 4-0 themselves if not for a late rally by home-standing Creighton in their road opener in a game MO State seemed to have won. A sideline to Missouri State's season is gBlake Ahearn's quest to become the first player ever to lead the NCAAs four straight years in a single statistical category. He's won the free throw title his first three years and his 14-for-14 effort on Sunday has him well on his way to his fourth. Southern Illinois and Creighton are off to a solid 3-1 start; Wichita State managed to salvage one win in three big games and is only 1-3 at this point; it may eventually be Bradley that's the odd team out. This league should get 4 bids for sure, so there will be a scramble for positioning in the regular season standings as well as progressing in the conference tournament as well. (And these guys more than anyone will be rooting for Gonzaga and Butler to win their conference tournaments!)
Texas Tech's 70-68 win over New Mexico on Monday put coach Bob Knight over the top as the all-time leader in career wins at 880 (and counting) ahead of Dean Smith. I've said my piece about Knight before when he was fired from Indiana [Volume V, Special (2000Nov13): Knight Blindness]. I'm not a fan. Things like slapping a player "to get his attention" are absurd. You'd be fired if you did that to a high school player. You'd be Sprewelled if you did that to a professional player. But somehow, in college, there's a nebulous in-between state where you're allowed to treat players like property. I can't stand that mentality. I always hate it when the players' names are not on the back of their jerseys. It's one thing to emphasize "There's no 'I' in 'Team'." It's another thing to have a fundamental lack of respect for individual dignity. The bigger problem with Knight's actions is that it forces other people to defend them out of some misguided sense of loyalty -- the Texas Tech president made a statement saying Knight didn't do anything wrong in his latest slapping incident. In some ways, issuing a statement that it's OK to slap somebody is worse than doing it. I think it does matter how you get there and not just the results. I will say that Dean Smith had many more blue-chip NBA-ready players pass through his tenure than Bob Knight did. In that respect, credit Knight with getting more from less raw material. But I'd much rather be paying homage to a gentlemen than a jerk.
North Carolina handled a very good Florida State team with ease, winning @84-58. The Tar Heels continue to treat decent opponents like just another all-star game where they can score at will without much resistance. Florida, meanwhile (which hung around Georgia for most of the game before extending at the end to a @67-51 win), has settled into a tendency to gamble on defense, willing to trade baskets for pace biding its time until "The Run" comes and they open up a big lead. That's OK in front of the home fans, but that can get you into trouble on the road. Ohio State is getting better, especially defensively. cGreg Oden's mere presence in the paint allows the perimeter defenders to be more aggressive out top and they're not only denying the paint but forcing opponents into poor three-point shooting as well. Illinois shot only 24% overall and 3-for-23 on three-pointers in OSU's 62-@44 road win in Champaign. (Tuesday's showdown at Wisconsin will be interesting. The Badgers have enough size to get Oden in foul trouble the way Florida was able to, but if OSU can take away fAlando Tucker's inside scoring, UW will struggle mightily for points.)
There's only one undefeated team left in the land, and it's the Clemson Tigers???. Yep. And just barely, too. Clemson played well in both of its games, but it still needed a game-winning basket from gCliff Hammonds to beat Florida State on the road, 68-@66, and another game-winner from fJames Mays to beat Georgia Tech at home, @75-74. Arkansas inserted itself back in the conversation with an overwhelming @88-61 drubbing of visiting Alabama. Bama's one-guard offense featuring hobbling gRonald Steele(8p4a) was no match for Ark's three-way perimeter attack of pGary Ervin(18p11a6r), bPatrick Beverly(18p5r) and gSonny Weems(18p). Georgetown looks to be on the mend with a convincing @66-48 pounding of undermanned Notre Dame (who shot only 4-for-22 on threes).
Tuesday's a big day: Wisconsin hosts Ohio State in Round 1 of The Big Ten Showdown. Two big SEC encounters are on tap as well: Florida vs Arkansas, and Alabama vs LSU. And it'll be raining threes in South Bend when Notre Dame hosts West Virginia. On Wednesday, the Big 12 gets going in earnest as Kansas meets Oklahoma State, and Texas faces Missouri. Marquette is off to an 0-2 start in Big East play, and it doesn't get any easier as they travel to Connecticut on Wednesday and then host West Virginia on Saturday. The wind is bound to come out of Tennessee's sails when the Vols have to go on the road to play Ohio State on Saturday. Clemson at Maryland on Saturday could be a huge result at season's end. More MVC Wars: Northern Iowa vs Creighton on Friday, and Missouri State at Southern Illinois on Saturday. The best of the Pac-10 games should be Arizona hosting Oregon on Sunday and UCLA at USC on Saturday.
-- Ron
Heart-Stoppers Abound
Virginia Tech found a way to make North Carolina pay for its "All-Star Game" mentality. The Hokie guards [gZabian Dowdell(23p), pJamon Gordon(17p6a6r5s) and gA.D. Vassallo(17p)] drove past the Tar Heel defenders and scored relentlessly off the dribble. VaTech had a 23-point lead at one stage in the second half before holding on for a @94-88 home victory. Maryland looked ahead and stumbled at home, @58-63, against Miami(Florida); but the Terrapins won The Big One, @92-87, knocking off the last unbeaten team, Clemson on Saturday. Now that that distraction is over, the Tigers can focus on what can still be one of their best seasons. (Too bad they don't get to play at UNC this year and attempt to break their 0-for-Chapel-Hill losing streak -- they only get North Carolina once this year, at home on Wednesday.)
Kansas crushed Oklahoma State at home, @87-57, and Marquette routed visiting West Virginia, @81-63. But many of the past week's big games were nail-biters that came down to the last shot, miss or make. Oregon beat Arizona, 79-@77, on gAaron Brooks(21p6a)' game-winner; UCLA survived 65-@64 at USC, thanks to gArron Afflalo(15p)'s jumper. Those two teams share the Pac-10 lead at 4-1 for the moment. (The Ducks are two points away from being undefeated, and seven points away from being in eighth place.) Butler lost in OT, 67-@73, at Illinois-Chicago and now the Horizon League is a three-way race between the Bulldogs, the Flames and the Wright State Raiders. (If Butler fails to dominate in conference, it's bad news for the likes of Wichita State, Bradley and Northern Iowa, who would be the odd team out if UIC or WSU got an automatic bid.) Stanford played spoiler with two nail-biter wins at home, @78-77 over Washington on gAnthony Goods(19p)' game-winner, at @71-68 in OT over Washington State as gGoods(30p) did it again with a game-winning three-pointer.
Georgia Tech showed signs of improving maturity with two big home wins, over Duke @74-63, and over Florida State @88-80. tAnthony Morrow (19p and 17p) is getting more minutes after the suspension of gLewis Clinch and it's making a difference. (But road games at North Carolina and Maryland this week could stop the turnaround right in its tracks.) Texas has begun to win its games more convincingly the past couple of weeks, but a big test comes Tuesday night when they visit Oklahoma State and then there's an out-of-conference road game at Villanova on Saturday. The future could be now for both of these young clubs (whereas young Connecticut lost at home to Marquette, @69-73).
Memphis has already won two of its toughest road games inside thin Conference USA. The Tigers won at Houston, 79-@69, and then won at Southern Mississippi, 72-@62. Remaining road games at Tulsa, Central Florida and UAB don't make for the most fearsome schedule. There's no BRACKETBUSTERS game for them, but there is a February road trip to Gonzaga, a team that beefed up its nonconference schedule so much in the preseason that it may have done more harm than good. If Memphis doesn't win that one, they could roll all the way into the NCAAs as a mystery team with a great record, semi-recognizable players, and no name wins to show for themselves.
Nevada's cNick Fazekas has missed the past two games after turning his ankle against Boise State a week ago. The Wolf Pack has managed to keep winning behind the guard trio of bMarcelus Kemp, bRamon Sessions and gKyle Shiloh in the short run, but two big league games are up this week, Fresno State (Thursday) and at New Mexico State (Saturday), and they'll need to be at full strength.
Indiana and Boston College keep posting the Ws under the radar, beating the teams they're supposed to beat. After a home game with Iowa on Tuesday, the Hoosiers travel to Connecticut on Saturday for a big nonconference matchup. BC gets Miami(Florida) on Tuesday and then has a surprisingly important showdown at Clemson on Saturday. Texas A&M faces its first ranked opponent in over a month when Oklahoma State comes to town on Saturday. The Aggies have last year's rep and a gaudy record going for them, but don't have a big win on their resume as of yet.
The Pac-10 is too, well, packed, to call Saturday's UCLA vs Arizona game any kind of showdown -- both teams have already lost to Oregon. Creighton is on top of the MVC at the moment, but a road game at Wichita State (Monday) and a home game against Southern Illinois (Saturday) could easily change that.
-- Ron
Don't Look Twice
On the other hand, the top 7 or so teams are pulling away from the field in their various leagues. The gap between Florida and the rest of the SEC is huge at the moment. The Gators keep posting the Ws while everyone else is one-up, one-down. North Carolina responded to its loss at Virginia Tech with a dismantling of Clemson on the road, 77-@55. The Tigers played well for a half but then couldn't keep up with the Tar Heels. UNC then beat down Georgia Tech from start to finish, @77-61. UCLA edged Arizona, @73-69, behind a fine performance from gArron Afflalo(22p). The threes aren't falling for the Wildcats, who also lost 73-@80 at USC and are now sitting in seventh place in the Pac-10. (But that's no reason to miss the track meet on Saturday when North Carolina comes to Tucson.) Wisconsin, Oregon and Ohio State keep on winning as expected. Texas A&M finally played its first ranked team in a month and drubbed Oklahoma State, @67-49. Thanks to Kansas' 64-@69 loss at Texas Tech, it's the Aggies who appear to be the true form team in the Big 12.
Clemson got back on its feet and crushed Boston College, @74-54, as the Eagles are now without cSean Williams, who has been suspended. The Tigers' defense-first style will take them a long way (until they face another offensive juggernaut like UNC who doesn't fear the press). Washington State crushed undermanned rival Washington, @75-47, as cSpencer Hawes sat out with an ankle injury. The Cougars are solid defensively and have a great lead guard in gDerrick Low(20p) and a versatile 'tweener in tKyle Weaver(17p8r4a). WSU is 16-3 / 5-2 in the loaded Pac-10. They aren't going to face any better talent outside the conference when they hit the NCAAs (except maybe for cGreg Oden and tKevin Durant), so expect them to do fine come tournament time. Marquette has recovered from its 0-2 start in Big East play with some fine wins, capped by a 77-@74(OT) win at Pittsburgh as pDominic James(23p5a) sank the game-winning free throws. Everything revolves around James for the Golden Eagles (which is good and bad) and he's beginning to enter the conversation for Player of the Year / first-team All-America.
Oklahoma State and Texas battled into triple-overtime in Stillwater as cMario Boggan had 37 points and 20 rebounds and the game-winning three to boot, @105-103(3OT). (UTx's tKevin Durant had 37 points/12 rebounds of his own and what would have been the game-winning play for the Longhorns before Boggan's heroics.) OSU has played several heart-stopper games against quality opponents, but it also has the two troubling blowout losses on the road at Kansas and now Texas A&M. Alabama was routed, 73-@94, on the road at Vanderbilt and was down 19 points at home to Georgia before coming all the way back to win it at the buzzer, @78-76, on gRonald Steele's jumper. LSU was crushed, 52-@72, on the road at the hands of Arkansas. Those are bad losses for what seemed like solid teams. Tennessee hasn't been run over, but it lost 80-@83 at Auburn, and barely survived, @64-61 at home against lowly South Carolina.
It's Arkansas and surprising Georgia who are putting together some fine basketball. Both teams are in the mold of a three-guard attack on the perimeter with blue-collar banger forwards in the paint doing the dirty work. (When it had gKyle McAlarney, Notre Dame fit this profile as well.) It's a formula that has led to a national championship (Arizona '97). It works. Butler and West Virginia have similar perimeter-oriented attacks, but both of those teams are much less physical inside. Teams that are front-loaded with power forwards -- Alabama and LSU, in particular -- can only stand by and watch when the threes start falling and station-to-station ball just can't keep up the scoring pace. (And don't be surprised if a team like Wisconsin ultimately falls to this style of opponent somewhere down the line.)
The Missouri Valley Conference has already reached the halfway point in regular season play. No one team has been able to separate itself from the others ... at the top, anyway. Wichita State is 3-6 and its only chance now to make the NCAAs is to win the conference tournament. Those preseason wins against "last year's Final Four teams on the road", LSU and George Mason, won't do it much good now. Creighton (6-3) and Northern Iowa (6-2) had mediocre preseasons, so it's good that they've finished the first half up top. Southern Illinois (6-3) appears best suited to receive an at-large bid no matter what having also had a fine preseason. It's looking like the MVC will get 4 bids and no more, so there isn't a lot of room for slip-ups. Worse still, the pairings for ESPN's BRACKETBUSTERS in February are due to be announced. That event spells only trouble for the MVC since it's the only league participating that's likely to get multiple bids. The Colonial is definitely back to a one-bid league. Butler can make the Horizon a two-bid league only if it fails to win its tourney (but despite one overtime road loss, the Bulldogs are properly dispatching the rest of their league opponents without much worry. Too bad the same can't be said for Gonzaga in the WCC.)
Villanova (over Notre Dame and Texas) and Vanderbilt (over Alabama and on the road at Kentucky) are inserting themselves into the conversation at least for league contention. (But one good week doesn't make for a great season. Even 11-9 Evansville won twice at home over Southern Illinois and Missouri State.) New Mexico State beat Nevada @80-73 to tie for the lead in the WAC at 5-1. Indiana keeps on beating the teams it's supposed to, including a 77-@73 road win at Connecticut. Michigan has stepped into the void in the Big 10 as well with a 4-1 record to match the Hoosiers.
Clemson at Duke (Thursday) could be a turning point in the program under Oliver Purnell's tenure. The Blue Devils can be had, especially by a team that pressures the ball like the Tigers do. Oregon at Washington State (Saturday) and Arkansas at Alabama (Saturday) also loom big inside those leagues. If it's going to happen for Georgia this year, it needs to be this week with two big home games: Kentucky (Wednesday) and LSU (Sunday).
-- Ron
DNP(various)
gAaron Brooks did not play in Oregon's 77-@89 loss at Washington. He sat out as part of an NCAA suspension from an incident last year. He returned in a flourish with 31 points in the Ducks' thrilling 77-@74(OT) win at Washington State on Saturday. Not even 37 points from the Cougars' pDerrick Low was enough to pull out a victory. Another depth issue slides Oregon up into the #4 spot in this week's poll. To be sure, without Brooks on the court, we see that they're beatable; but this is not a one-man team. pTajuan Porter has scored 30+ this year; gBryce Taylor has had his own 20+ moments; and this used to be tMalik Hairston's team before that. (For UCLA, by comparison, lately it has been only gArron Afflalo and pDarren Collison consistently scoring points, especially with fJosh Shipp coming off an injury.)
Speaking of the Bruins, UCLA managed to blow a 17-point lead in its 68-@75 road loss at Stanford. Actually, this was more about the Cardinal putting together two great performances in front of its home crowd. First, freshman fBrook Lopez posted the first triple-double in school history in their @65-50 win over USC with 18p11r and 12 blocked shots. Both 7' Lopez twins are now starting for Stanford -- fRobin had lagged behind, recovering from back surgery in the summertime -- and with gAnthony Goods and fLawrence Hill, the Cardinal is starting to gel into a solid unit with a great future, and a pretty good present.
gChris Lofton is out with an ankle injury and Tennessee sorely missed him as the Volunteers fell twice, 69-@83 at Mississippi and then 57-@76 at Kentucky. Forgotten 1BC Winthrop has been playing without its star, bTorrell Martin, for a while now, but the Eagles were able to sneak by with two big victories, 64-@63 at High Point and @65-63 over Coastal Carolina to remain undefeated in the Big South conference at 7-0. (This team still has no bad losses and gave the very best teams a go of it on their home floors. Don't forget them come tournament time.) Also going undefeated in conference and under the radar is VCU. The Rams are 10-0 in the Colonial, which is admittedly down from last year, but not all the way out by any means. VCU's lack of height isn't a problem in conference and its perimeter attack of gB.A. Walker, bJesse Pellot-Rosa and pEric Maynor is good enough to dominate the conference so far.
Other than Florida, which is coasting through the regular season, the preseason favorites in the SEC (LSU, Alabama and Tennessee) are floundering and the likes of Georgia, Arkansas, Kentucky and Vanderbilt are stepping up into that power vacuum. The Bulldogs needed every bit of support from their home crowd to rally from big deficits, but they pulled out two key wins. Down by 17, they rallied to win in overtime, @78-69(OT) over Kentucky. Then, down by 12, they came back to win on a three-pointer at the buzzer to beat LSU @57-54. (They can't afford to get behind like that this week with road games at Tennessee on Wednesday and at Vanderbilt on Saturday.)
More fun with creative timekeeping gave Duke just enough time to score the winning layup against Clemson in a @68-66 win. pGreg Paulus isn't particularly playing any better, but the Blue Devils have found a workaround and are playing much more cohesive ball as they also were able to beat Boston College, @75-61. After being the last team left standing undefeated, Clemson now has four losses all of a sudden. They seemingly had Virginia down for the count before the Cavaliers closed the game with a 15-0 run to steal a 64-@63 road win on Sunday.
Air Force's finesse game was grounded when BYU stopped them @61-52. The Cougars outrebounded the Falcons 42-20. USAF, BYU and UNLV all have two losses each now atop the Mountain West standings. Nevada beat back Utah State, @79-62, but the Wolf Pack still remains tied for first place in the WAC with New Mexico State at 7-1. The Pac-10 and Big East are now at the midpoint of the regular season. Oregon and UCLA are each 7-2 while Arizona is 6th at 5-4 and Washington remains in 8th at 3-6 (despite going 2-0 on the week). Marquette hasn't lost since its 0-2 start in league play and the Golden Eagles are now in second place at 6-2 behind Pittsburgh.
The Game of the Year in the Big 12 is on tap this week: Texas A&M visits Kansas on Saturday in their only regular season meeting. Gonzaga visits suddenly tough Stanford on Wednesday (as if their nonconference schedule weren't already full, and they still have a home game with Memphis in February as well). The 'Zags need that win more than the Cardinal. Ohio State barely hung on at home to beat Michigan State, @66-64, this past week. The Spartans get to return the favor this week when they host the Buckeyes on Saturday. Oregon at UCLA on Thursday has first place on the line in the Pac-10. Who figured Alabama at LSU (Wednesday) would be a battle to stay out of last place in the SEC West?
-- Ron
Reversal Of Fortune
In the ACC, North Carolina State put together two big home wins: first, @70-59 over Virginia Tech; then, @83-79 over top-ranked North Carolina. The Tar Heels weren't in control of the game and played from behind the entire time. Worse, they aren't in control of the league race, either. At the break, four teams were tied at 6-2: UNC, Boston College, Virginia and Virginia Tech. The unbalanced ACC schedule is partially responsible for such topsy-turvy standings, but Duke lost twice last week (66-@68(OT) at Virginia after gSean Singletary's game-winner, and @67-68 to Florida State as the Seminoles won for the first time ever in Durham); and Clemson, which started 17-0, has lost five of six games and was only 4-4 at the turn. VaTech and UVa have earned their position with big wins over UNC and Duke, to be sure, but it doesn't help that a team like Maryland, which had a strong preseason winning the COLLEGE HOOPS CLASSIC, could only manage a 3-5 start in league play. BC lost its shot-blocker cSean Williams and keeps on winning despite that behind the stellar season being turned in by fJared Dudley (30p13r in their @80-59 win over VaTech).
Even more upside-down is the SEC. Florida cruised through the first half at 8-0, but that's where the form stops. LSU came in last place at 2-6, Tennessee (due mostly to gChris Lofton's being out with an ankle injury) is only 3-5, and Alabama just managed to be .500 at 4-4. Instead, "Old Reliable" Kentucky, which had seemed to be going through an off year without a star talent leading the way, came second overall at 6-2. Have they gotten better, or did the league come back to them? (Probably the latter, actually.) Upstarts Vanderbilt (5-3) and Georgia (5-3) had a surprising first half. Arkansas had some flashy wins, but was only 3-5 at the turn when all was said and done.
Texas A&M closed the game with a 17-4 run keyed by pAcie Law(23p7a) to take a 69-@66 win over Kansas and claim the Big 12 lead outright at 7-1. The Jayhawks are in a three-way tie for second with young Texas and forgotten Kansas State. Remember, KSU won the LAS VEGAS CHRISTMAS CLASSIC (beating USC along the way), but after losing freshman star fBilly Walker to a knee injury, expectations were dashed for this season. Credit the easier "North Division" schedule and a 73-@72 Wildcat win at Texas thanks to gCartier Martin(27p)'s game-winning three-pointer and look who's 6-2 as well. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State has won thrillers at home while getting pounded on the road (including a sorry 77-@89 loss at 6-13 Colorado) to stumble through at 4-3 after such a strong preseason. The good news for KU and KSU is that the Oklahoma/Texas "South Division" schools have to play each other twice (so don't hand the title to the Aggies just yet).
Indiana knocked off Wisconsin, @71-66, dropping the Badgers into a first-place tie with Ohio State at 7-1 at the midway point (and maybe also jeopardizing a #1-seed for UW and possibly Player of the Year for fAlando Tucker, who needs the "league champion" moniker to make his case against the stellar numbers being put up by UTx's tKevin Durant). OSU gets to host Round Two of the Big 10 Showdown at the end of February. Indiana is third at 6-2, but tied for fourth at 4-4 is plucky Iowa. The Hawkeyes are basically a two-man gang with only bAdam Haluska left over from last year's champion squad, but he's got a great new tandem partner in freshman point-forward fTyler Smith. Haluska couldn't find his shot for most of the preseason, but he just dropped 33p in Iowa's @81-75 win over Indiana. No-name Illinois has spun out at 3-5.
In the Big East, form has been more the norm as Pittsburgh, Marquette and Georgetown are at the top. Notre Dame's 6-2 first half might have even been better had it not lost gKyle McAlarney (who was expelled from school). The power vacuum left by last year's powers Syracuse (4-4), Villanova (4-4) and Connecticut (3-5) has been filled by revamped West Virginia (5-3) and even Louisville (5-3) has finally been able to be a factor in its new conference.
Already into the second half, UCLA took control of the Pac-10 with a firm beatdown of Oregon, @69-57. The Ducks fell again to surging USC, 68-@71. Meanwhile, Washington State tied the Trojans for second place, thanks to a 72-@66 road win at Arizona. Stanford crushed Cal the second time around, 90-@71, and played a great game despite losing in double-overtime to Gonzaga, @86-90(2OT). (Give the 'Zags credit for regaining some of their mojo with a great performance. This is almost their last chance to earn their way back into the rankings. They're not playing in BRACKETBUSTERS, but their Feb 17 showdown with Memphis will be just as big.)
Southern Illinois and Creighton have opened a gap on the rest of MVC pack at 10-3. The Salukis looked great stifling Wichita State on the road, 54-@46. (WSU seems headed for the NIT at this point, mired in sixth place at 6-7.) The two league-leaders meet for their second showdown -- SIU squeaked out a 58-@57 win the first time around -- in Carbondale, IL on Saturday.) The MVC teams are in fine shape overall. The league will get four NCAA bids, for sure. Still, they've come so far that now the BRACKETBUSTERS matchups in February are more of a pitfall than an opportunity. (Butler hosting SIU will be great entertainment with no downside for those two NCAA locks; but Northern Iowa at Nevada, Missouri State hosting Winthrop, Bradley at VCU, Creighton hosting Drexel and Wichita State hosting Appalachian State are all dangerous matchups. The MVC teams will likely need a BRACKETBUSTERS win and/or a semifinal berth in the conference tournament to secure a bid. Those don't come easy.
The Mountain West, Atlantic 10, Conference USA and Sun Belt don't participate in BRACKETBUSTERS. The MWC teams figure they're too good. Maybe. Air Force, UNLV and BYU are all tied atop the MWC at 6-2. USAF (beat Stanford, Texas Tech) and UNLV (beat Nevada, Texas Tech) have done some things out of conference to make a case for an at-large bid; BYU doesn't have that. The A-10 has been eclipsed by the MVC and skipping BRACKETBUSTERS isn't helping their cause. George Washington has a squeak win over Virginia Tech from the BB&T CLASSIC, but that's it; Massachusetts and Rhode Island have no name out-of-conference wins; and Fordham -- Fordham??? -- forget it; Xavier beat Kansas State, Villanova, Illinois, and VCU, so that's about the only A-10 team with a shot at an at-large bid. Anyone not named "Memphis" in Conference-USA better hope the Tigers have an off night in the conference tournament and that automatic bid becomes up for grabs. (Oops! The C-USA tourney is in Memphis again this year. Sorry!) There's no reason the Sun Belt teams shouldn't be playing BRACKETBUSTERS. Not that the Sun Belt will be anything other than a one-bid conference, but South Alabama and Western Kentucky aren't getting any ratings points playing each other.
UNC-Duke I is still yet to be played on Wednesday. (But this year the buzz is with the women's game on Thursday, featuring the #1 and #2 teams in the nation, both still undefeated.) Texas A&M still has a long way to go to claim the Big 12 title (starting Monday night with the first of two matchups with Texas). It's been years since UCLA and USC played in basketball with first place on the line, but the Trojans have put themselves in position for a big opportunity on Wednesday. (Meanwhile, Washington State and Stanford have their own showdown on Thursday.) A road game at Kentucky (Saturday) may be the only thing that could prevent an undefeated run for Florida through the SEC (but no way the slow-footed Wildcats can hang with the Gators' quickness). Marquette at Georgetown (Saturday) and Boston College at Florida State (Sunday) will be great. UCLA at West Virginia (Saturday) could be ugly. Is it possible that Virginia vs Virginia Tech (Saturday) has implications for first place in the ACC?
-- Ron
Three Races
Nevada is two games up on New Mexico State in the WAC (but the Aggies handed the Wolf Pack its only loss). Davidson is two up on Appalachian State (although the Mountaineers beat the Wildcats head-to-head). Vermont beat Albany for the second time and has a two-game lead in the America East. South Alabama squeaked by Western Kentucky is two up on the rest of the field in the weak Sun Belt. East Tennessee State is coasting comfortably in the lowly Atlantic Sun. Austin Peay swept Samford and has a three-game gap over the second-place Bulldogs. No one has a bigger lead than Central Connecticut State's four-game gap in the woeful Northeast. Delaware State has no challengers in the MEAC. Everywhere else, things are still within one game or teams are tied for the lead.
The other two races involve seeding and bids for the NCAA tournament. At the very top, the jockeying for a possible #1-seed is narrowing down to about eight teams. Generally, you need to win your (BCS) conference regular season race and make a decent showing in the conference tournament to lock up a #1 seed. Florida has one all sewed up (barring only major injuries or suspensions). North Carolina hasn't secured control of the ACC race just yet (but huge games this week against Virginia Tech [Tuesday] and at Boston College [Saturday]) will go a long way towards accomplishing that). UCLA threw a wrench into its plans for a #1-seed with a shocking 65-@70 loss at West Virginia. (Granted, pDarren Collison didn't play and only gArron Afflalo can get his own shot on that team, but they had more problems defensively with the Mountaineers' spread-and-shoot offense than should have been the case for a #1-seed.) As long as the Bruins win the tough Pac-10, though, they should still take the third #1-seed. The fourth #1-seed is very much up for grabs. It had seemed to be destined for the ultimate winner of the Big 10 between Wisconsin and Ohio State (who still have one, and probably two more meetings yet to come), but those two teams have been grinding away unimpressive wins in a weakened league the past few weeks. Meanwhile, Texas A&M has turned in spectacular performances against Kansas (a long shot for a #1-seed if TXAM stumbles and the Jayhawks can beat them in the Big 12 tourney final) and also a @100-82 throttling of Texas (despite 28p15r from tKevin Durant). Now even Pittsburgh is in the running thanks to its own 60-@47 rout of West Virginia only three days before UCLA couldn't handle the same challenge with a win at all. [The mostly likely pick will be Texas A&M, which seems to be handling its opponents with the greatest ease.]
There is also some competition for middle seeding as well, but that's very limited in its scope. A Top-16 seed (and preferential choice of pod) is of some great value. Teams like Washington State, Memphis and Nevada are probably safely in that group. Butler was also safely in the Top 16 for most of the season, but a 65-@77 loss at Wright State has not only cost them that lofty place, but the Bulldogs have also lost control of the Horizon League conference race ... again. (This despite a fabulous performance only days earlier when they sank 20 three-pointers in a 92-@50 rout at Cleveland State. In fact, it's gA.J. Graves who's leading the nation in free-throw shooting at 96%, ahead of Gonzaga's gDerek Raivio (95%) with three-time defending champ gBlake Ahearn of Missouri State currently third at 93%.) Southern Illinois beat Creighton, @72-68, in another outstanding MVC game. The Salukis don't have a shot at a Top-16 seed, but they could be a #5- or a #6- (and ironically wind up on the other end of those 5-12 matchups in which they made their name as upset underdogs in the first place).
Of course, the other major race is the positioning of teams for a possible at-large bid should they need it. Butler's stumbling doesn't help that situation because Wright State wouldn't get a bid on its own as things stand now. Worse news is that Gonzaga is falling apart at the seams. Not only did the 'Zags lose again in conference at Loyola Marymount, 61-@67 (falling into a first-place tie with Santa Clara), but they've lost fJosh Heytvelt to suspension after he and one other teammate were arrested for possession of marijuana (sound familiar?) and psychodelic mushrooms. gKyle McAlarney was expelled from school at Notre Dame on just the former charge, so don't expect anything lighter for fHeytvelt. Memphis is playing too strongly to expect any kind of slip-up in Conference USA. Xavier (Atlantic 10), VCU (Colonial), Akron (MAC), Davidson (Southern) and Winthrop (Big South) deserve to get in the tournament, but will have a hard time staying ahead of the also-rans in the Pac-10, SEC, Big East and MVC in comparative conversations.
Things in the ACC are so jumbled that they could wind up squeezing out other teams with a bunch of unexpected at-large bids for the likes of Maryland, Florida State, Virginia and Duke, besides UNC, Boston College and Virginia Tech, for sure. The same is true for the SEC where Vanderbilt, Georgia, Arkansas, Mississippi and LSU might find a way to join Florida, Kentucky, Alabama and Tennessee. In the Big East, Louisville, Providence, Villanova and Syracuse could barge their way in with Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Marquette, West Virginia and Notre Dame. Yikes!
Some missing-in-action teams have returned from their walkabout just in time to salvage a possible at-large bid. Arizona came from behind to beat Oregon on the road, 77-@74 (behind 30p10r from fChase Budinger) and the Wildcats are actually tied with the Ducks for fourth place in the Pac-10. Likewise, Washington got serious and swept California and Stanford. (The Huskies still have a long way to go, though, and things don't get any easier this week with a couple of Top-10 opponents: Washington State [Wednesday] and at Pittsburgh [Saturday].) Tennessee has gChris Lofton back on the court now, and even less than 100% makes a big difference: the Vols beat LSU @70-67 and routed Vanderbilt @84-57. Wichita State has worked its way up to a tie for fourth place in the MVC (while Northern Iowa is in a free fall and may not make the NCAA field after all).
Speaking of free falls: Duke has lost four games in a row for the first time in years. It would take another couple of rocky weeks before the Blue Devils would become an actual bubble team, but they aren't going in the right direction. They tried to run with North Carolina and held the lead for most of the game until fatigue set in in the second half and the Tar Heels cleaned up in the last ten minutes for a 79-@73 win. Then, Maryland pretty much did what it wanted in a comfortable @72-60 later in the week.
The made-for-TV BRACKETBUSTERS event is here and, while there's very little on the line for anyone except the MVC teams, it should make for some entertaining contests. The headliner is Butler hosting Southern Illinois on Saturday. The Salukis are a tough defensive bunch that lacks only height. Butler's perimeter three-point attack has only gotten better since the preseason. Both teams are NCAA locks, so there's no real pressure about losing the game. Nevada should have it easy hosting slumping Northern Iowa. Missouri State hosting Winthrop on Friday should be outstanding. The Eagles are a team that doesn't have any gaudy wins on its resume, but they've played the elite teams tough on the road. They could be ready for a big-time splash come tourney time -- MO State will have its hands full. Probably no one can earn an at-large bid with a BRACKETBUSTER win, but they can sure blow one with a loss. It's a dangerous game for VCU (vs Bradley), Akron (vs Austin Peay), Hofstra (vs Holy Cross) and especially Wichita State (vs Appalachian State). New Mexico State (vs Ohio U) and Creighton (vs Drexel) could probably still get in even with a loss on Saturday.
Not a part of BRACKETBUSTER (but no less important) is Saturday's Memphis at Gonzaga game. Memphis has an outside shot at a #2-seed if some other teams flounder, but they need this win. Gonzaga may find itself NIT-bound (if you can believe it) if it fails here and continues its slumping play.
-- Ron
Cracks In The Plaster
Florida finally lost the game it's been trying to lose for a couple of weeks now. Vanderbilt was the happy recipient as the Commodores won @83-70, paced by 24p each from tDerrick Byars and tShan Foster. The 'Dores are alone in second place in the SEC (and it's legit: they've split with UF and UTn, won at Kentucky, and beat Alabama and LSU as well). North Carolina lost @80-81(OT) in their rematch showdown with Virginia Tech (but while UNC rebounded with a 77-@72 win at Boston College, VaTech gave it back with a 56-@81 rout loss at N.C. State). Texas A&M fell at the buzzer for the second time to Texas Tech (this time it was @75-77 on bJarrius Jackson's game-winning jumper) as the tougher "North Division" Big 12 schedule caught up to the Aggies -- they're now tied at 10-2 with Kansas (with no second meeting in store in the regular season). Pittsburgh was a spectator as Louisville came of age before their eyes and easily beat the home-standing Panthers, 83-@66. (Pitt regrouped to beat Washington, @65-61, while Lville pulled off another road upset with a buzzer-beater at Marquette, 61-@59.) Nothing permanent has gone wrong with the Big Boys, just a temporary reshuffle in the race for the #1 seeds.
The same can't be said for the likes of Arizona, Oregon, Boston College, Kentucky, Marquette, Indiana, Clemson and Washington, all of whom lost twice on the week. These teams all have lots of name wins, thanks to their stuffed BCS regular season schedules, but that also makes it harder to build momentum because they can't string a lot of games in a row with consistent performances. UofA lost at home, @75-80 to USC and @66-81 to UCLA (as the Bruins' pDarren Collison handed out 15 assists). Oregon lost 61-@63 at slumping Cal and then 69-@88 to rising Stanford (as fBrook Lopez had 26p9r). Boston College had its two biggest home games in front of it, but couldn't deliver a win against either Duke (L @70-78) or North Carolina (L @72-77) as the Eagles fell to third place in the ACC standings. Kentucky had two road games and couldn't come away with a win at either Tennessee (L 85-@89) or Alabama (L 61-@72) despite playing well. Marquette has fallen back into a mad scramble for fourth place in the Big East (and the final first-round bye in the conference tournament) with losses to DePaul (L 67-@72) and Louisville (L @59-61). Indiana's woes were both on the road: L 68-@81 at Purdue and L 55-@58 at Michigan. Clemson's exciting 17-0 start made it seem like things might be different this time, but here we are again looking at 2-7 since then and seventh place in the ACC standings thanks to weak showings at Wake Forest (L 65-@67) and vs surging Maryland (L @66-82). Washington didn't play badly, but it wasn't up to the tough task of facing Washington State (L @61-65) and at Pittsburgh (L 61-@65). Meanwhile, Georgetown posted two good wins: W @71-53 over West Virginia and a tough W 58-@55 at Villanova.
While the BRACKETBUSTER event provides false hope to teams that they can somehow transform their conferences from 1BCs into multi-bid leagues, it does allow the one opportunity to create matchups that can't be foreseen preseason. Last year, it was George Mason and Wichita State hooking up in a preview of a Sweet 16 NCAA game with a berth into the Elite 8 on the line. Could this year's marquee matchup, Southern Illinois at Butler, be a foreshadowing of a similar future? (Don't be surprised if it happens again.) The Salukis and Bulldogs put on a great show in one of the signature games of the 2006-07 season as SIU held a slim lead on the road for most of the way in a bruising 68-@64 victory, snapping BU's 22-game home win streak (as gJamaal Tatum had 20p4a and gA.J. Graves was held to 5p4a). Just as good was Friday's impressive win by Winthrop, 77-@66 on the road at Missouri State. When the Eagles' bTorrell Martin missed several games with a foot injury, gMichael Jenkins blossomed in his absence -- now they've got two killer scoring guards plus pChris Gaynor to run the show and capable veteran cCraig Bradshaw in the paint. Appalachian State won 60-@58 at fading Wichita State on gD.J. Thompson's game-winner. That game by itself isn't why they cracked this week's rankings; it's the cumulative effect of an earlier rout of Ohio U (which played a great game in a 72-@77 loss at New Mexico State) and their preseason crown at the SAN JUAN SHOOTOUT (which included wins over Virginia and Vanderbilt, both of whom are doing just fine at this stage of the season). Nevada eventually had an easy time with slumping Nothern Iowa, @79-64. Bradley was the only other bright spot for the MVC, winning 73-@64 at VCU. Drexel won at Creighton, 64-@58; and Utah State came back on the road at Oral Roberts to win 71-@65.
The big conference winners from BRACKETBUSTERS were the WAC and the Horizon, both 7-2. Both Nevada and New Mexico State should be assured at-large bids now, and Wright State (with its @77-62 pounding of Cal State-Fullerton) made a case for turning the Horizon into a multi-bid league. As feared, BRACKETBUSTERS was a bad deal for the MVC, which went 5-5 overall (and only 2-4 among the six teams that were in the hunt for the NCAAs -- now Wichita State and Northern Iowa have no shot at an at-large bid, and Missouri State and Creighton are headed in the wrong direction). The Colonial (5-7 overall) went 3-1 among the contending teams (VCU, Hofstra, Drexel and Old Dominion), but two bids at most is all they'll get. The jumbled standings among several of the BCS conferences doesn't bode well for any of these teams in the at-large race, though. Everyone else remains 1BC: Mid-American (6-6), Metro Atlantic (5-5), Ohio Valley (4-7), Southern (3-1), Big West (3-5), Big South (2-1), Big Sky (2-2), West Coast (1-0), Patriot (1-2), Mid-Continent (0-2), America East (0-2) and Southland (0-2).
It's The Game Of The Year Part II for the Big East and the Big 10. Pittsburgh beat Georgetown @74-69 the first time around; now it's Round Two in D.C. with first place on the line. Those two probably don't have a shot at a #1 seed in the NCAAs at this point, but one of them might get a #2 seed. On Sunday, we get Round Two of Wisconsin and Ohio State, as the Buckeyes try to avenge their earlier 69-@72 loss at the hands of the Badgers. One or both of those teams may wind up with a #1 seed in the NCAAs, so there's even more than first place in the regular season race on the line for them. The momentum of form is definitely with the Hoyas over the Panthers; I'm less convinced that a change of venue will make enough of a difference for OSU over UW.
-- Ron
Finish Strong
A couple of teams that seemed like locks for #1 seeds for most of the season haven't finished strong in the home stretch. Florida lost again, this time on the road at LSU (playing without "Big Baby" cGlen Davis). The Tigers used a mini-version of The Year After Rule -- (call it "The Week After Effect") -- as the supporting cast stepped up their activity and were a more effective team in the short-run with an open lane and no post player to feed and watch. The Gators couldn't hit from outside and kept waiting for a run that never came. They've already wrapped up the regular season title in the SEC, so they don't have anything to play for until the conference tournament (except that #1 NCAA seed). North Carolina's problem isn't motivational, it's more a case of the freshmen expecting teams to quit because "the game is over" like they did earlier in the season. UNC battled Maryland and seemed to have put it away with a 77-@70 lead late in the second half, but UMd responded and gained a @89-87 victory. The Terrapins are playing with the same kind of aggressive hunger that they showed at the start of the season. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels have fallen back into a three-way tie for the ACC lead with Virginia Tech and Virginia. (Can you believe that Round Two of VaTech-UVa still has first-place implications the second time around?)
Oregon and Michigan State seem to have turned on a switch that should see them through to the end of the season. The Ducks rebounded from their "slump" with two solid home wins, @64-59 over Washington State and @93-85 over Washington, as gAaron Brooks and gTajuan Porter scored 86 points between them in two games. (Nothing was ever terribly wrong with UofO in the first place, but the tough Pac-10 schedule broke their momentum for a bit.) Meanwhile, the Spartans knocked off Wisconsin @64-55 and Indiana @66-58 as gDrew Neitzel (28p and 17p) has made a late bid to challenge UW's fAlando Tucker for Big 10 Player of the Year. (First runner-up will have to do, though.)
The churning of teams in the SEC may wind up costing at-large bids from the lesser conferences. (For example, it now seems unlikely that the MVC will get more than 3 bids.) With everyone beating each other, they're all getting rating points that can't be matched by teams like Davidson/Appalachian State(SoCon), Akron(MAC), Wright State/Loyola-Illinois(Horizon), Gonzaga/Santa Clara(WCC), VCU/Old Dominion/Drexel(Colonial) or even Xavier/Massachusetts(Atlantic 10). Most likely, only one each of those teams will get an (automatic) bid into the NCAAs because it looks like all the at-larges are headed for the Big Boys. In the Mountain West, BYU, UNLV and Air Force are making their reputation off of beating each other. The problem is, there aren't many quality wins among them outside the conference. UNLV and USAF did beat Texas Tech (but that's a moving target as far as using it as a benchmark goes). BYU beat Oral Roberts -- big deal. They'll probably all three make the NCAA field, though, because of the overall strength of the conference.
It's tournament time in the lesser conferences. The usual problem is the danger of NCAA locks screwing up in their conference tournament and giving an automatic bid to a team that wouldn't have made it otherwise while they take away an at-large bid that could have gone to some other deserving team. #1 on that list this year is Memphis in lowly Conference USA (but they're undefeated inside the league and the tournament is at their place -- hopefully, that'll be enough; but we won't have to worry about them until next week). Butler goofed around, losing at home to Loyola(Illinois), and wound up losing the #1-seed (and the right to host the Horizon League tournament) to Wright State. WSU and LoyIL probably haven't done enough to get a bid on their own, but they've both proven already that they can deal with Butler head-to-head. Winthrop should have done enough to garner an at-large bid if they need it, but they won't: they just posted the first undefeated regular season ever in the Big South and they also are hosting the conference tournament. Gonzaga is normally a part of this conversation, but the 'Zags aren't in control of their league and have all kinds of problems on and off the court. More likely, they'll need to win the WCC tournament themselves to ensure an automatic bid. Vermont has handled Albany twice in America East league play, but it's hard to beat a good team three times. Holy Cross and Bucknell split in the regular season (and had to go to the official RPI this week to determine which team would be the top seed in the Patriot League tournament). Marist (and NCAA assist-leader pJared Jordan) won the regular season, but they're by no means head-and-shoulders above the likes of Niagara, Loyola(Maryland) and Siena. East Tennessee State won the Atlantic Sun with a cushion, but they split OT wins head-to-head with second-place Belmont. Oral Roberts dominated the Mid-Con, but it's a one-bid league (despite their preseason win at Kansas). South Alabama seems to be the class of the Sun Belt, but that's faint praise.
Davidson and Appalachian State both deserve bids, but even if they both make the Southern Conference final, they'd be one of the last teams to get in. The strong showing in BRACKETBUSTER probably helped the Colonial remain a two-bid league, but only two at most among VCU, Old Dominion, Hofstra and Drexel can make that final. The big "lesser" tournament this week is the MVC (Thursday thru Sunday). Southern Illinois, Creighton and Missouri State are all in with at-large bids, but the likes of Bradley (which leads the NCAAs in three-point shooting), Northern Iowa and Wichita State, for sure, will have to win the tournament to get in.
No ultimate showdowns left in regular season play, just decent matchups here and there. The lustre is off of UNC-Duke II (Sunday) as far as conference standings (but the Blue Devils are trending up while the Tar Heels are trending down). Pittsburgh at Marquette (Saturday) doesn't mean as much the second time around, either. Texas does have two big games this week: Wednesday (vs Texas A&M) and Saturday (at Kansas), but the Longhorns don't defend well enough to really beat those teams when it really matters.
-- Ron
Things Are Tough All Over
UCLA fell at Washington, 51-@61, as the Huskies held the Bruins to 31% shooting. (UW also routed USC @85-70 in a last-ditch effort to make the tournament. They'll have to keep on winning and make the PAC-10 final if they want serious consideration for a bid, though.) Florida played its worst game yet in a dreadful 76-@86 loss at Tennessee that wasn't even that close -- (the Gators trailed by 27 points in the second half). The Gators pulled it back together somewhat, though, with a nice @85-72 win over Kentucky. Georgetown was beaten by Syracuse, 58-@72, but regrouped to take out Connecticut @59-46. Ohio State and Wisconsin managed not to lose; but the Buckeyes were only 65-@61 winners at Michigan, and the Badgers needed a game-winning three-pointer from gKammron Taylor to sink Michigan State @52-50 at home. Nothing too serious to worry about in most of those case, but watch the SEC tournament closely to see if Florida really can turn the switch all the way back on when the games count again.
In the ACC, no one seemed to want to go out and claim the title. No less than four teams each had its turn to win a game and earn the #1-seed for the conference tournament and all four teams lost when the chance was right in front of them. North Carolina had the chance to sew things up with a win over Georgia Tech, but the Yellow Jackets kept the pressure on for 40 minutes and won @84-77 in the Thrillerdome. Next, Virginia Tech had a shot, but fell 56-@69 on the road at Virginia. Virginia had its own chance to sew things up, but managed to lose 72-@78 at Wake Forest. Boston College tried its luck, but fell 60-@74 at Georgia Tech. Virginia Tech lost again, this time at home to Clemson @74-75 on gK.C. Rivers' game-winner. Finally, North Carolina prevailed against Duke, @86-72, to garner a tie with Virginia for the regular season title (and the Tar Heels gained the #1-seed in the ACC tournament by virtue of their earlier win over the Cavaliers). The UNC-Duke game ended on a bizarre note: with only seconds left in the game, cTyler Hansbrough grabbed an offensive rebound off of his own missed free throw and had his nose broken when gGerald Henderson came down on him with a vicious elbow that drew lots of blood. Because it's Duke (of course), it was "accidental". (The refs did eject Henderson for a flagrant foul and, rather than staunchly defending his player with "I know my guy and he would never do that on purpose", coach Mike Krzyzewski said instead, "if it was intentional, it's crazy".) The guy was probably not purposely trying to break his nose, but there's no good explanation for swinging that wildly in a game that's over. You could argue that Hansbrough is so physically strong that, like Patrick Ewing or Shaquille O'Neal, opponents "have to" foul him harder than the average player just to make an impression. Still, with 14 seconds left, that kind of intensity doesn't make sense. (But we all know that Duke athletes are beyond reproach, right?)
Texas has become more than just the tKevin Durant Travelling Circus. The Longhorns put together two fine performances and darn near stole away the Big 12 regular season title. Not even more outrageous heroics from Texas A&M's gAcie Law could prevent a @98-96(2OT) UTx win in Austin. Even before this season, Law was known for coming up big late in the game. He turned the game around in the last 4 minutes when the Aggies came back to beat Kansas 77-@75 earlier this year. This time, he kept knocking down clutch three-pointers to keep them in the game against the Longhorns: he made one to send it into first overtime, made another one to send things into a second overtime, and damn near made a third one at the very end. Ultimately, though, it was Durant's 30p16r and pD.J. Augustin's 25p7a5r that won the day. On the road at Kansas, Durant had 25 points in the first half (as they led 51-35) before the Jayhawks turned things on themselves (and Durant slowed down after turning his ankle) and KU eventually pulled out a @90-86 win to clinch the Big 12 regular season title. Because of the unbalanced conference schedule, it will have to wait until the conference tournament to know for sure which is really the best team in the league, and now it's a three-way conversation instead of two.
The "lesser" conference tournaments got under way last week. The "Big One", the MVC, held form among all the main contenders through to the final as Missouri State knocked out Wichita State, Bradley knocked off Northern Iowa, and in turn, Southern Illinois beat Bradley and Creighton beat Missouri State (behind 33p from gNate Funk). In the final, Creighton turned the tables on Southern Illinois (which swept them in two close regular season games). The Bluejays won 67-61 and held the lead for most of the game behind 19p from Funk and 15p13r from cAnthony Tolliver. The Salukis play lockdown defense, but they struggle to score an easy baskets on offense; they lack both height and speed and it's hard for them to play catch-up once they get behind. Still, they've managed to put together a great season (but their prospects in the NCAA tournament depend greatly on the physical talent of their opponents).
Winthrop saved the day for all those bubble teams by taking care of business and winning the Big South conference tournament outright, but it wasn't easy. The Eagles had to outlast the nation's leading scoring team (VMI) and player (gReggie Williams) in a @84-81 shootout in the final. Bobby Cremins' College of Charleston Cougars spoiled the plans for Appalachian State with a @89-87(OT) win in the semifinals (behind gDontaye Draper's 38 points). Meanwhile, Davidson held off CofC in the final, 72-@65, to take the Southern Conference crown (to go along with their 17-1 regular season title). George Mason found some life in a "back-to-a-pumpkin" season with two big wins in the Colonial tournament, @64-61 over Hofstra, and @79-@63 over Old Dominion.
It's now out of their hands for the likes of Missouri State, Appalachian State, Old Dominion, Bradley, Drexel, Marist, Hofstra, East Tennessee State (which managed to lose @67-94 on its own home floor to second-seed Belmont), Nothern Iowa, Wichita State, Austin Peay (which lost on a last-seconds shot, @62-63 to Eastern Kentucky). With so many of the BCS conferences finishing so competitively, most likely all of those teams will only make it to the NIT.
Holdover finals from last week include the danger schools Gonzaga and Butler (which barely hung on 67-66(OT) over Loyola(Illinois) in the Horizon semfinal, thanks to clutch free-throw shooting from NCAA-leader gA.J. Graves -- and, in fact, GU's gDerek Raivio is right behind him in second place). Memphis (Conference USA) should be able to repeat Winthrop's performance and come through with the automatic bid in front of the home folks. Don't forget the Patriot final on Friday 4:30PM (at Holy Cross vs Bucknell -- the Crusaders are host for this game thanks to the official RPI used as a tiebreaker) and the America East final Saturday 12N (at Vermont vs Albany) squeezed in with all the major tourneys.
People are talking about 9 ACC teams, 8 Big East teams, 7 Big 10 teams, 7 SEC teams, 6 Pac-10 teams and 5 Big 12 teams being the mix for the NCAA tournament. That's already 36 at-large bids right there (and there are only 34 to be had). It's going to be very hard for anyone outside the BCS to get in (except for the "locks" that are supposed to take the automatic bid). Southern Illinois makes it 33, and there's Nevada/New Mexico State and BYU/Air Force/UNLV out there. (MO State? App State? ODU? Xavier/UMass? It don't look good, boys.)
-- Ron
The Big Squeeze
Florida did indeed turn the switch back on as it rolled through the SEC tournament without facing any of the pretournament favorites (Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt). Instead, the Blue faithful are up in arms over Tubby Smith and UK's longest drought without winning the SEC tournament or making the Final Four. Arkansas saved coach Stan Heath's job by making the final (knocking off Vanderbilt 72-71 along the way) and snatching an at-large NCAA bid away from the likes of West Virginia/Kansas State/Drexel. North Carolina took out Florida State (73-@58) and Boston College (71-56) impressively and outlasted upstart N.C. State in the ACC final, 89-80 (but fTyler Hansbrough's broken nose has hampered his effectiveness). The one-word NCSU Wolfpack only managed to steal an NIT bid away from teams like Washington/Iowa/Akron. Ohio State handed Wisconsin a convincing 66-49 win in the Big 10 final to definitively settle the score between those two (and raising concern as to how much the loss of fBrian Butch means to the Badgers). Kansas looked ready to make a deep NCAA run with a thrilling 88-84(OT) win over Texas in the Big 12 final (despite being down by 22 points in the first half). Player of the Year tKevin Durant was more than ready for prime time: 29p13r v Baylor as UTx rallied from a 20-point deficit to win 74-69 , 26p including a clutch three-pointer as Texas beat Oklahoma State 69-@64, and 37p against Kansas.
UCLA lost its shot at a #1 seed with a @69-76(OT) loss to California in the Pac-10 quarterfinal as gArron Afflalo only had 3 points. Have the Bruins (like Wisconsin) suddenly come up short right when everything is on the line? Getting a #2 seed didn't really hurt them: they still get to play in the Sacramento Pod and the West(San Jose) Regional. Meanwhile, it was Oregon that rolled through Arizona (69-50), Cal (81-63) and USC (81-57 behind gBryce Taylor's 32p) to take the Pac-10 crown. The Ducks' potent GGGTF lineup is the equal of any team out there in a finesse shootout. Texas A&M succumbed to the Jekyl-and-Hyde performance of Oklahoma State, losing 56-@57 on fMario Boggan's game-winner in the Big 12 quarters. OkSU plays like a Top 10 team in front of an Oklahoma crowd with thrilling wins over Texas, Texas A&M and Pittsburgh; but they're also 1-9 on the road. (Their reward: a #2 seed and two possible home games in the NIT.)
Georgetown found an offensive flow not seen all season as it rolled through the Big East tournament, beating Villanova (62-57 after starting the game 26-2), Notre Dame (84-82 behind fJeff Green's 30p12r;GWFG), and Pittsburgh (65-42 behind 21p from fGreen). The Big East tournament field was the strongest of all. Pittsburgh had two great wins of its own over Louisville (65-59) and Marquette (89-79), Louisville beat West Virginia (82-71(OT)), Notre Dame beat Syracuse (89-83), and Marquette, West Virginia, Syracuse and Villanova all had first-round wins. None of those teams played badly. It's too bad there weren't enough at-large bids for WVU and 'Cuse -- blame Butler and Xavier for failing to secure automatic bids and allowing the likes of Wright State and George Washington to play in the NCAAs instead of the NIT.
In the WAC and Mountain West, hosts New Mexico State and UNLV were able to take the conference tournament in front of home crowds. Both were #2 seeds in their draws, though; so those weren't egregious results that stole bids away. But on a neutral court, fourth-seeded Utah State (which beat Nevada 79-77 in the semis) might have been able to reverse its 70-@72 loss to New Mexico State; and top-seeded BYU probably could have held onto its early lead over UNLV instead of losing 70-@78.
24-7 Akron has lost seven games by a combined total of just 21 points -- they were, by far, the strongest-rated team in the MAC, but thanks to a three-point bank shot "at" the buzzer, it's Miami(Ohio) going to the NCAA tournament after a @53-@52 win in the final; and the Zips lived up to their name 'cause they have no postseason to show for it. (Toledo received the automatic bid into the NIT as the regular season champ.) The America East and Patriot held off playing their finals for several days in order to squeeze into ESPN's television schedule. The games were worth the wait, though. After losing twice in the regular season, #2-seed Albany won 60-@59 at #1-seed Vermont behind bJamar Wilson's 22p7r6a. Holy Cross won the rubber match with Bucknell @74-66 behind 28p6r from bTorey Thomas and 23p from gKeith Simmons.
Maybe only three NCAA bids went to teams that "shouldn't have" gotten in. Xavier abdicated its A-10 spot, losing 71-79 to Rhode Island in the semis and #3-seed George Washington happily took the extra spot, beating URI in the final 78-69. Wright State is a solid team, but it might not have gotten an at-large bid if it hadn't been able to beat Butler @60-55 in the Horizon final. (The win was no fluke -- the Raiders' gDaShaun Wood is a great scorer -- but Butler beat that team by 31 points the first time around before losing two straight. WSU's smallish frontcourt isn't bothered by the Bulldogs' perimeter weave the way BCS teams with big forwards who aren't comfortable defending on the three-point line were in the NIT SEASON TIP-OFF.) Arkansas' run to the SEC final wasn't an abdication by anyone in particular -- they beat Vandy, but the Commodores were going to be an at-large team themselves anyway. Looking at the seeds of the last teams into the NCAAs, it's Xavier, Texas Tech, Georgia Tech, Stanford, Illinois, Arkansas and Old Dominion, in that order. You see that nearly all of those spots were taken by middling teams from BCS leagues. ODU just snuck in with the last spot (while Missouri State and Appalachian State were left on the sidelines). (Spare a thought for Kansas State, which finished fourth in the Big 12 and beat fifth-place Texas Tech 66-45 in the conference quarterfinals only to watch TXT get in while KSU sits out.)
Washington State (3), Southern Illinois (4) and Butler (5) were rewarded for strong seasons, but they're probably seeded too high and they won't enjoy being the Hunted as much as being the Hunter. Marquette (8), Michigan State (9) and Creighton (10) are probably seeded too low. It's too bad (8)Marquette-(9)Michigan State is a first-round matchup -- that could easily be a second-rounder with a spot in the Sweet 16 on the line. (5)USC-(12)Arkansas, (5)VirginiaTech-(12)Illinois, (6)Notre Dame-(11)Winthrop, (7)Nevada-(10)Creighton, (8)Kentucky-(9)Villanova all also seem more like second-round games. (5)Butler and (12)Old Dominion are probably worse off playing each other than BCS teams whose size could be used against them by those two. It was a strong year for teams west of the Mississippi; too bad we don't have one more Pod out west so more of those teams would have a closer first couple of games: Kansas has to play in Chicago, Texas A&M in Lexington, and Texas has to play in Spokane. (Meanwhile, good old North Carolina gets to sit pretty in the ACC 1-designated Pod in Winston-Salem.)
The streamlined NIT is good and bad. By giving automatic bids to conference regular season champs (not a bad thing), it has created the same problem the NCAA has. This year the bottom eight seeds were all automatic qualifiers; so that left only 24 at-large invitations for what used to be as much as a 40-team tournament (now pared down to 32). For the most part, though, the matchups are great. These are the games I wish we'd see (but never will) in ESPN's BRACKETBUSTERS event: the middle-of-the-pack BCS teams facing the upper echelon mid-major teams. Those are the ones vying for the last few at-large NCAA berths, but they never face other directly. The only bad thing is that here the Big Boys get all the home games. (Only Missouri State, Drexel and Bradley were seeded high enough to host their first round game.)
The Big One is here, folks! Let's see if the up-and-down style of the Pac-10 teams fares better in tournament play than the plodding station-to-station style we saw in the Big 10. Teams that struggle to score can be in trouble early on.
-- Ron
There's too much to fit in, for sure. But the first couple of rounds of the NCAA tournament do offer a singular national spotlight on those games and the stars within. We did get to see Davidson's gStephen Curry (son of NBA star Dell Curry) prove he was every bit the equal of ACC talent as he tore through Maryland for 30p in a game effort as his Wildcats tired late and lost to the Terrapins 70-82. We did get to see the awesome, gritty point guard matchup between VCU's Eric Maynor(22p;GWFG) and Duke's bGreg Paulus(25p6r) as the Rams pulled off the first-round upset of the Blue Devils, 79-77. (And VCU took Pittsburgh to overtime before losing in the second round, 79-84(OT).) We got to see Winthrop -- the sleeper that everybody knew about -- get it done, anyway: shocking Notre Dame with a 54-34 lead, giving it all back and trailing 63-64 with two minutes left, and then regrouping with a 11-0 closing run to win 74-64 (the first NCAA win ever for Winthrop or any Big South school). We got to see Southern Illinois and Butler validate every heap of praise showered on them as the darling mid-majors all season as both teams made it through to the Sweet 16. The Salukis (despite playing without injured fMatt Shaw for the bulk of two games) beat Holy Cross 61-51 and solidly defeated Virginia Tech 63-48. (Kansas, however, will be another story; but in another life earlier this season, these same Jayhawks did manage to lose to both Oral Roberts and DePaul, mind you.) Butler proved its NIT SEASON TIP-OFF championship to be no fluke as it defeated fellow mid-major Old Dominion 57-46 and then held on to knock off COLLEGE HOOPS/CVC champion Maryland 62-59.
Of the ultimate Sweet 16, ten were BCS teams that lived up to their seeding, the eleventh BCS team, #5 Tennessee, "upset" follow BCSer #4 Virginia 77-74. Two more spots went to the mid-majors we all had our eye on all season, SIU living up to its #4 seed and #5 Butler pulling the upset of #4 Maryland. The final three members of the group weren't pure Cinderellas, but they were as much of a surprise as we got this year. USC finished third in the powerhouse Pac-10, made the Pac-10 final (beating second-place Washington State along the way), but because of the way Oregon destroyed them in the conference final, it caused us to take our attention away from them. But the Trojans put together as fine a performance the first two rounds of the NCAAs as any of the elite "legit title-contender" top seeds. USC destroyed Arkansas 77-60 in Round 1 (disproving that the Razorbacks had earned a bid by "winning their way in" by making the SEC final) and pulled off the (second) biggest shocker of the tournament: a 87-68 drubbing of extreme buzzworthy Texas and Player of the Year tKevin Durant. tDurant had a "quiet" 30p (and 27p in the first round against New Mexico State), but he's not only out of the tournament, but most likely gone from the college scene altogether. [In order to claim you've made your mark on college basketball, a star player usually has to have taken his team to the Final Four once in his career. tDurant won't have that. He'll be the only freshman to be named national Player of the Year; but he won't match Syracuse's Carmelo Anthony, who led his team to the national championship (and Ohio State's cGreg Oden still has a great shot to do so himself this year).] Unheralded UNLV got no respect for winning the mostly unknown Mountain West conference tournament title on its own home floor, but how do you like them now that they've outhustled Georgia Tech 67-63 and then shocked #2-seed Wisconsin 74-68, led by gMichael Umeh(22p) and coach's son pKevin Kruger(16p7a) as Player of the Year runner-up fAlando Tucker only had 17p7r. [So arguably the two best players in the nation are already out of the tournament.] The third surprise survivor, Vanderbilt, impressively crushed George Washington (proving that the Colonials' automatic bid was the only way they should have been in the tournament) and toughed out a thrilling 78-74(2OT) win over #3 Washington State.
None of the questionable-bid teams fared very well: Conference tourney winners George Washington and Wright State were blown out; same for conference tourney finalist Arkansas. At-large Stanford was destroyed by Louisville 58-@78; Texas Tech fell to Boston College; Old Dominion lost to Butler; Georgia Tech lost ugly to UNLV; and Illinois blew a lead against Virginia Tech. Purdue did manage to oust fellow Questionablee Arizona, 72-63.
With the major exception of Wisconsin, all of the elite top seeds made it through the first weekend. Kansas, Memphis and North Carolina had the least trouble. (UNC's fTyler Hansbrough is just fine now, after scoring 33p in the Tar Heels' 81-67 win over Michigan State.) Georgetown (over Boston College), UCLA (over Indiana), Florida (over Purdue) and Pittsburgh (over VCU) all had scares but ultimately delivered outstanding execution in crunch time with their seasons on the line. Xavier had archrival Ohio State down 55-44 with seven minutes left, but couldn't hold on as the Buckeyes' senior bRon Lewis(27p8r) sank a three-pointer to send the game into OT and freshman pMike Conley took over from there. [The shove by cGreg Oden at the end of regulation was intentional, but not flagrant enough to warrant any suspension in my book.] Texas A&M survived against Louisville, 72-69, as the Cardinals' gEdgar Sosa(31p) did everything but win the game in front of the partisan Lexington, KY crowd. Oregon survived a first-round scare against lightly regarded Miami(Ohio) 58-56, but responded with an excellent win over solid Winthrop 75-61 in the second round.
Vanderbilt helped the SEC place three of five teams in the Sweet 16 (Florida, Tennessee, Vandy) and go 7-2 overall to go along with three of four teams still alive in the NIT (Mississippi State, Georgia, Mississippi) and a 4-1 record there so far -- by far the most impressive performance. [There really was depth in that league that relegated the likes of LSU to eleventh place.] USC helped the Pac-10 keep three of five teams still alive as well (UCLA, Oregon, USC West) and 5-3 overall. Despite Texas' ouster, the Big 12 was still OK with two of four teams left (Kansas, Texas A&M) and a 5-2 record, plus one of two (Kansas State) and 1-1 in the NIT. The Big East (two of six: Georgetown, Pittsburgh, 5-4 overall; plus three of four in the NIT: West Virginia, Syracuse, DePaul, 4-1) hung onto respectability. But the ACC and Big 10 were big disappointments. The ACC only has North Carolina left out of seven bids, a 6-6 record (but three for three in the NIT: Clemson, Florida State, N.C. State, 5-0 overall). The Big 10's deliberate style of play caught up to it at tournament time yet again as only Ohio State remains from six bids, 6-5 overall plus oh-for-one in the NIT.
The NIT has one-and-a-half more rounds this week before the teams make it to New York for the semis and finals next Tuesday and Thursday. On Tuesday, Mississippi State hosts Florida State in the North final and West Virginia hosts N.C. State. Clemson and Syracuse have one more game Monday before those two should meet on Wednesday in the South final. Kansas State and Georgia should handle Monday's opponents before facing off in the West final on Wednesday.
In the Big Dance, Florida has the easiest road on paper to the Final Four with only Oregon likely to have enough game to compete with them. (Butler's style is made to frustrate BCS big men, but these Gators can guard out on the perimeter when they need to. BU does have an NCAA history with UF some years back.) Kansas-Southern Illinois will be as physical as you could want, but the Jayhawk's height/speed will prove to be too much for the Salukis. KU's regional final date with UCLA/Pittsburgh will be no picnic, though. North Carolina's depth should prevail against USC's talent, but Georgetown looms as a major obstacle for the Tar Heels to make it to Atlanta. Ohio State and Tennessee went to the wire in Columbus; no reason to expect any less the second time around on a neutral court. But Memphis looks every bit the equal of Texas A&M and OSU in the South. On the form they've shown the first two rounds, I'd go with Kansas, North Carolina, Florida and Memphis. In '92, Duke got through The Greatest Game Ever Played in its Regional Final win over Kentucky before going on to repeat as national champion. Florida may well have its own version in the national semifinals with a rematch against Kansas.
-- Ron
It Don't Come Easy
In the West Regional semis, Kansas survived a strong challenge from Southern Illinois' brutal defense. The Jayhawks couldn't shake the Salukis, trailing by 6 early in the second half and still tied at 53-53 with 3 minutes left. KU's pBrandon Rush(12p5a) did just enough to hold off the late heroics of SIU's gJamal Tatum(19p) as Kansas survived 61-58. Meanwhile, UCLA maintained a working margin against Pittsburgh for most of the game as ex-Pitt coach Ben Howland beat his former Pittsburgh assistant Jamie Dixon and players, 64-55, behind gArron Afflalo(17p) and gJosh Shipp(16p) as the Panthers' cAaron Gray was held to 10p6r by the tough inside Bruin defense.
In the West final, UCLA and Kansas took it right too each other with no let-up, neither team feeling as if it were the underdog. The intense, frenetic defense on both sides lasted throughout the game. The difference came as UCLA was able to get a few more easy baskets in transition and sink some more jumpers behind the smooth shooting of gArron Afflalo(24p) and pDarren Collison(14p7a). gBrandon Rush had 18p for the Jayhawks, but their on-again/off-again streaky shooting was decidedly off as they couldn't convert on several close-in shots. UCLA prevailed 68-55, having the "easiest"/most impressive time of it making the Final Four, handling two excellent opponents without nail-biter finishes.
In the Midwest Regional semis, Oregon rode the heroics of gTejuan Porter(33p;8/12 3s) to a 76-72 win over UNLV that wasn't as close as that score appears. The Ducks maintained a double-digit lead for most of the second half in that one. Butler's 'tweeners gave Florida's big men fits as they nailed three-pointers and caught the Gators in awkward defensive switches. The Bulldogs led 22-13 midway through the first half and battled their way to a 54-54 tie with 3 minutes left. Only a closing stretch of outstanding defense, clutch jumpers from gTaurean Green(17p;5/8 3s) and 17-for-21 free-throw shooting from cAl Horford and cJoakim Noah saved the day for UF in their 65-57 win.
In the Midwest final, Florida managed to play from ahead most of the way, but they could never shake pesky Oregon. This time it was the sharp-shooting of gLee Humphrey(23p;7 3ptrs) and gTaurean Green(21p) that led the way for the Gators. (Humphrey's rotation on his shot was so tight that he "popped the chords" on one jumper and the game was delayed several minutes while they replaced the net.) The Ducks got 27p from gAaron Brooks and 18p5r from bMalik Hairston, but gTejuan Porter was 0-for-8 from the floor until the final minutes of the game. UF hung on despite more turnovers and missed free throws than they would have liked, 85-77.
In the South Regional semis, Ohio State's cGreg Oden sat with foul trouble as Tennessee built a 20-point lead, 49-29(1), behind 24p from gChris Lofton. Oden's foul trouble may have been a blessing in disguise, though, as he was not on the floor when the Buckeye guards shot their way back in the game at the start of the second half, tied the score at 64-64 with 9 minutes to go. But the Vols didn't go away and, despite 25p from gRon Lewis, OSU only survived thanks to 1/2 free throws from gMike Conley(17p) and a game-saving block by Oden at the buzzer in their 85-84 escape over UTn. Likewise, Memphis and Texas A&M went at it in another nail-biter, this time with neither team able to game much of an advantage. gJeremy Hunt(19p) and tChris Douglas-Roberts(15p) led the Tigers and fAntanas Kavaliauskas(17p8r) led the Aggies, but the game wasn't decided until erstwhile "Mr. Clutch" gAcie Law(13p) blew a breakaway layup for TXAM and gAntonio Anderson sank two free throws for MU to earn a 65-64 victory.
In the South final, foul trouble for cGreg Oden was what allowed the game to remain close. When Oden wasn't on the floor, Memphis' guard/'tweener corps was every bit the equal of Ohio State's. gJeremy Hunt(26p) and gChris Douglas-Roberts(14p) again led the way for MU and bRon Lewis(22p6r) and gMike Conley(19p) led OSU. But with the score tied at 60-60(9), Oden(17p9r) came back into the game and keyed a stretch that led to a 71-64(6) lead. From there, the Buckeyes sank 18 straight free throws to turn a nail-biter into a laugher as they closed out an impressive 92-76 victory.
In the East semifinals, Vanderbilt gave Georgetown everything it could handle, leading by 13 in the first half and still tied 60-60 with 3 minutes to go. With cRoy Hibbert(12p10r) sitting with foul trouble, the Hoyas' fJeff Green(15p) saved the day with a game-winning bank shot to eek out a 66-65 win over the Commodores. North Carolina also had its hands full with Pac-10 opponent USC. The Trojans' individual talent was superior to the Tar Heels as they seemingly took turns driving the lane for scores. cTaj Gibson(16p12r), gNick Young(15p) and gLodrick Stewart(15p) had things all their own way, leading 49-33 early in the second half. The Tar Heels' fTyler Hansbrough was only able to muster 5 points as he battled foul trouble. But the tide turned with 11 minutes to go when cGibson sat with his fourth foul and USC still leading 59-49. UNC went on a blistering 18-0 run, led by bMarcus Ginyard(10p9r) and fBrandan Wright(21p9r) as the Tar Heels took a 67-59 lead with 5 minutes left and rode that home to a 74-64 win. Roy Williams never panicked even when his team was down and seemingly out, having faith that his run-at-all-costs style would eventually wear out their opponents with fatigue and foul trouble, as it had all season.
In the East final, Georgetown led North Carolina early on 22-15, but the Tar Heels quickly turned that deficit into a 26-22 lead. As cRoy Hibbert(13p11r6b) sat with foul trouble, with the Heels leading 73-65(8), UNC seemingly had no worries. The Hoyas looked like yet another UNC opponent ready to wilt by fatigue/attrition. But Georgetown made a quick spurt to get to 70-75(5) and UNC never went into endplay mode, still firing up ridiculous three-pointers as if they had the game well in hand. As their shots kept missing -- during a 1-for-23 shooting stretch -- the Tar Heels' got nervous and the Hoyas got emboldened. A three-pointer by gJohn Wallace(19p) sent the game into overtime at 81-81 and GU outscored shellshocked UNC 15-3 in the extra period, behind fJeff Green's 22p9r in a dramatic, shocking, come-from-behind 96-84(OT) win. For GU coach John Thompson III and his player Patrick Ewing, Jr. (and for us watching), it's a strange déjà vu to see these sons follow in their famous fathers' footsteps ... at the same school, no less.
In the NIT, home games ruled the day as all four #1 seed advanced to New York. Mississippi State pasted Bradley, @101-72, and outran Florida State, @86-71. Air Force's spread offense produced a lopsided win over Georgia, @83-52, and a buzzer-beater win over DePaul, @52-51. West Virginia beat Massachusetts @90-77 and N.C. State @77-66 without much trouble. Clemson crushed Ole Miss @89-68 and edged Syracuse @74-70. On neutral ground, look for Clemson to redeem its 17-0 start with a 5-0 finish and the NIT title.
We've got a superb matchup of big men coming up between Ohio State's cGreg Oden and Georgetown's cRoy Hibbert. Oden hasn't faced any true centers all year (and didn't fare well against Florida's fAl Horford, the best big man he's seen all year). Hibbert at least has met the challenge of playing against Pitt's cAaron Gray. It's hard to go against the remarkable resilience that OSU has shown. We've got a great rematch in the other semi: Florida vs UCLA -- the Gators have shown their championship mettle finding ways to win tough, tight games this time around compared to last year's easy romp. As good as UCLA has looked, as much payback motivation as they have from last year's title game, this Florida team really is so good that it kind find different ways to win depending on the challenge of the given opponent. It won't be easy, but it says here that the Gators repeat.
-- Ron
The beauty of this team was always how well the individual pieces fit together. Unlike Duke '01's "Universal Replacements" team (in which the individual versatility of several players made them capable of stepping up and playing different roles as the situation dictated), this starting five had very specific skills/talents, each bringing something to the table that the others couldn't. A center who's agile enough to be the point on the full-court press; a power forward who can harass three-point shooters on the perimeter; a 'tweener who can shoot threes, drive the lane, get tough rebounds, and shut down the opposing team's best scorer; a point guard who can distribute and get his own shot when the need arises; and a designated shooter who defends well to boot. That's everything you want a team to be able to do with no wasted duplication. (Could they pull off the Three-Peat if the core actually decided to return next year? Maybe. Probably. But it wouldn't be nearly as easy without the back-breaking three-pointers they get from senior gLee Humphrey. He's Option #5, yet if you remove him from the equation, you can how imbalanced their attack becomes.)
Florida matched the feat of Duke '92 in repeating as champs. These Gators returned all five starters intact from the previous year whereas those Blue Devils technically didn't. (Duke lost starter fGreg Koubek and reserve gBilly McCaffrey from the '91 team, and reserve fBrian Davis stepped in to start in '92 to join cChristian Laettner, pBobby Hurley, tGrant Hill and fThomas Hill.) That Duke team went 34-2 and certainly had a more dominant run the second time around than this Florida team. And Duke crushed its final opponent, Michigan's "Fab Five" freshmen, 71-51. This Florida team (35-5) was much more of a measured squad that did what it had to do and only got in trouble when it let up its focus and tried to free-wheel and go for the knockout punch rather than slowly grind its way to victory. Despite its Big 10 title and tournament crown, this year's Ohio State "Thad Five" (which, by season's end, was really only the "Thad Two Plus Lew") isn't as good a team as that Michigan team was. How would these Gators do against those Blue Devils? Laettner would be the best player on the floor (but so was Oden), Hurley is a better point guard than Green (but it's close), Grant Hill-Corey Brewer is a glorious push, Humphrey trumps Thomas Hill, and ultimately the combo of Horford-Noah is better than Laettner-Davis. I'd take the Gators because they've got real threats at all five spots on the floor (plus two solid reserves in gWalter Hodge and fChris Richard).
In the final against OSU, it was certainly the Buckeyes' cGreg Oden(25p12p4b) who dominated the game, putting four Gator players in foul trouble. But UF won the battle of the boards 38-28 overall and their 10-for-18 three-point shooting and 22-for-25 free-throw shooting more than made up for Ohio State's edge in the paint. gMike Conley wound up with 20p6a, but his effectiveness was limited in the first half when Florida gained its advantage. Likewise, it was the defense of tCorey Brewer on gRon Lewis(12p) that took away a prime component of the opposing team's offense. The greatness of this Florida team is that no one player in particular has to be the one who has the big game. (Unlike UCLA, which was doomed if gArron Afflalo didn't have a big day -- he didn't in the semis, again thanks to tBrewer, the Most Outstanding Player of the Final Four). Unlike Georgetown, who needed a big game from fJeff Green -- he didn't in the semis, thanks to the Buckeyes' zone defense.) No one in particular was the reason the Gators were able to break open the game in the finals. The biggest reason was their outstanding halfcourt defense, which made every possession tough on the Buckeyes. But it was three consecutive three-pointers, from tBrewer, gHumphrey and gGreen that stretched the score to 33-22 with four minutes left in the first half. That provided the margin that UF nursed the entire rest of the game. OSU was able to make one charge late with full-court pressure and got the lead down to 60-66 with five minutes left in the game; but another dagger three-pointer, this time from gGreen, staved off the rally.
The two semifinal games weren't much to look at. All four teams started struggled to score at the beginning of both games. Georgetown was lucky to even be still in the game having scored only 7 point through the first ten minutes against Ohio State, but it was just 14-7 OSU. Foul trouble for cGreg Oden(13p9r) restricted his minutes and it was the Hoyas' cRoy Hibbert(19p6r) who was more effective head-to-head. Despite getting 19p from gJohn Wallace, the main problem for GU was that Big East Player of the Year fJeff Green only had 9 points. OSU played mostly zone, so fGreen just didn't want the ball enough and his teammates didn't look for him. Both Oden and Hibbert battled fouls; Ohio State was more effective when only one of the two big men were on the floor: Oden dominated the non-centers better than Hibbert did. Also, OSU-minus-Oden was better offensively than Gtown-minus-Hibbert. OSU 67 Gtown 60.
On paper, gArron Afflalo scored 17 points in the semifinal against Florida; but in reality, he was stuck on 0p (thanks to tCorey Brewer) until six minutes were left in the game and the outcome was already decided. It was gJosh Shipp(18p) who kept the Bruins close until two big threes from gLee Humphrey opened up a 39-28 lead just after halftime that broke things open for the Gators. In fact, they almost opened things up too soon, leading 49-32 but still with 12 minutes left to go. That's a long time to have to grind your way home to a win you've already earned, but UF did what it had to, eventually winning 76-67.
In the NIT, West Virginia made a furious comeback and gDarris Nichols hit the game-winning three-pointer as they knocked off Mississippi State 63-62 in the semifinals. Clemson was too physical for Air Force and held on to preserve its own 68-67 win. In the final, the Mountaineers were just too tall and effective for the Tigers to handle, winning the title, 78-73. (This for a team that was picked to finish dead last in the Big East after losing four starters from the year before.)
The opening theme for this season, "Ghosts Of '92", did play out all the way through until the end. We had a final scenario that was almost a carbon copy of the one 15 years ago: a repeat champ defeating a team powered by superstar freshmen. The overall Year of the Freshman was the other theme that was consistent all year. Thanks to the NBA rule prohibiting high school seniors from jumping to the pros, we were blessed with a huge influx of young talent that would have almost certainly passed the college scene by otherwise. A freshman was the consensus Player of the Year (Texas' tKevin Durant), but he wasn't able to lead his own fabulous young squad deep into the NCAA tournament. North Carolina was never far from the top spot in the rankings all year, thanks to its own infusion of freshmen stars (but the Tar Heels showed their youth, blowing what seemed like a winning lead in the Regional Final against mature Georgetown).
The return of the first-rate talent to the college scene was supposed to spell the immediate doom of the mid-majors as all of those young stars poured into the BCS leagues. Upstart Butler from the Horizon League gave us two great bookend performances to refute that in the short run: a stirring run to take the NIT SEASON TIP-OFF (with wins over Notre Dame, Indiana, Tennessee and Gonzaga) and then a prove-that-it-was-no-fluke run to the Sweet 16 (taking out fellow mid-major Old Dominion of the Colonial and BCS Maryland before giving Florida a good run). In fact, one of the best games all season didn't involve BCS teams at all: fellow Sweet 16 Southern Illinois of the MVC and Butler played a brutally beautiful game in the marquee matchup of BRACKETBUSTERS in February.
The season finished on a high note with one of the strongest overall NCAA tournaments in recent memory. (With the exception of Wisconsin and Texas), the top teams all performed to their potential and packed the Elite Eight with seven of its eight top seeds. The second-tier teams were right behind and gave the Big Boys a solid run for their money and bowed out only when they were supposed to. Even the first rounds didn't feature the glut of upsets that we're used to. Drama and surprises gave way to excellence and expectations. That's not a bad thing.
Remember these Florida Gators. (They've written themselves into the history books so that you'll have to, anyway.) A beautiful team to watch. A nice story in how their commitment to each other led them to return, how the sacrifice of the one most in need of the NBA dollars led to a greater reward than he could ever have received just from a checkbook. But the story of that team is in no way the story of any one player. It's the story of five guys whose individual specialized talents fit together so perfectly that they were able to come through as pressure-free underclassmen as well as with the full knowledge of all the pressure to repeat as upperclassmen. Nothing they accomplish in the NBA will ever be better than what they pulled off here.
-- Ron
(c) 2006-07 Ron McBay
www.ronmcbay.us/HLS
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