GCS II - (The Great Conference Shuffle)
The 2001-02 season brought us "The Return Of The Kings" as Bob Knight and Rick Pitino came back to the college basketball coaching ranks. Louisville's trip to the Final Four last year cements Pitino's return; while the feat of taking Texas Tech to the Sweet 16 is plenty enough validation that Knight still has it.
This year, it's not the coaches' movements that will define this season's story, it's the teams that have jumped ship. Call it "The Great Conference Shuffle - (GCS II)". 22 teams have switched conferences from last season; 12 conferences have a different membership than a year ago. For the most part, individual teams have moved up to stronger conferences; but not every conference is stronger than it was a year ago. The Big East -- now 16 members strong in a single-division alignment -- is now The Mother Of All Conferences. The strength of schedule for teams in that league is off the charts. Connecticut, in particular, faces possibly the toughest schedule from start to finish that any team has ever played. Conference USA swapped a total of 14 teams in and out; it now resembles last year's WAC more than anything. Charlotte made a lateral move from C-USA to the Atlantic 10 (now 14 members strong -- and you thought the Big 10 couldn't count to eleven!); the new A-10 isn't as strong as last year's C-USA, but it is stronger than this year's C-USA! Memphis stayed behind, but if strength of schedule has been a problem for them before, what will happen to their RPI now? Several of the newly minted members have a real shot at taking the title of their new league the first time out: Can Louisville step in and take over the Big East? Can Boston College come south and take over the ACC? Can Charlotte step in and take the Atlantic 10? Can Utah State move up from the Big West and challenge for the new WAC title? Can East Tennessee State drop down from the Southern Conference and immediately rule the depleted Atlantic Sun? The answer to any of these questions could easily be "yes"! It's a new world out there, folks. Bring your lineup cards.
This year's off-season coaching changes have been minor by comparison to GCS I. The biggest news was the late summer firing of Bob Huggins at Cincinnati; former assistant Andy Kennedy will be interim coach this season. Gene Keady retired and Matt Painter is now fully in charge at Purdue this year. Bruce Pearl parlayed Wisconsin-Milwaukee's Sweet 16 performance into the job at Tennessee after the firing of Buzz Peterson; (Peterson wound up at Coastal Carolina.) Henry Bibby was fired at USC and Tim Floyd (ex-Iowa State) is now back in the college ranks taking his place. Pete Gillen was let go at Virginia and Dave Leitao left DePaul to take the vacancy. Travis Ford moved up from Eastern Kentucky to take the job at Massachusetts. Matt Doherty (ex-Notre Dame, ex-North Carolina) is back in business at Florida Atlantic. Former player Reggie Theus (UNLV, NBA) takes over at New Mexico State in place of retired Lou Henson; while Ricky Stokes (Virginia) takes the helm at East Carolina. Ex-Georgia coach Hugh Durham retired from Jacksonville.
There's no single team that finished strong last year that returns completely intact at the start of this year, so the Preseason No. 1 is a pretty muddled picture. Of last year's Final Four, Michigan State has three starters back (fPaul Davis, gMaurice Ager and gShannon Brown) but they don't have the overwhelming backcourt depth that allowed them to play with such abandon. Louisville has gTaquan Dean and fJuan Palacios back, but the Cardinals will have to redefine their roles from last year. Arizona has tHassan Adams and gMustafa Shakur back, but lost major talent. Kentucky now must center its identity around gPatrick Sparks and gRajon Rondo (and possibly cRandolph Morris if the NCAA restores his eligibility). Wisconsin lost four starters but still has tAlando Tucker. You have to dip as far down as the Sweet 16 before you get to teams with their entire nucleus returning from a year ago. Duke still has gJ.J. Redick and cShelden Williams (and a new star in fJosh McRoberts). Villanova has all five starters back on paper, including gAllan Ray and gRandy Foye (but there are major issues with fCurtis Sumpter injured in preseason practice and cJason Fraser still on the mend). Gonzaga's strongest regular season ended in a second-round disappointment in the NCAAs but four starters return (including fAdam Morrison). Texas never got going full speed last year when cLaMarcus Aldridge was injured and fP.J. Tucker became academically ineligible; they're both back now and gDaniel Gibson is now a super sophomore for what might wind up as the best team in the nation. N.C. State heads a list of Year After teams that have four starters back except for last year's superstar. The "Year After Rule" says that such teams can often advance further behind former role players than their leader was able to take them. N.C. State (minus tJulius Hodge) probably won't exceed last year's Sweet 16; but Iowa (minus gPierre Pierce), UCLA (minus tDijon Thompson), Maryland (minus gJohn Gilchrist) and Indiana (minus gBracey Wright) all expect more from this season than they got from the last one. At least at the start of the season, some of last year's splash teams from lesser conferences are well placed to hit the ground running and make a serious run to the Sweet 16 and beyond: Bucknell's NCAA upset of Kansas was no fluke and all five starters return. Nevada is a consistent NCAA tournament team and four starters (including cNick Fazekas) return for more this year. Northern Iowa has five returning starters (including gBen Jacobson) and could do this year what Kent State and gTrevor Huffman pulled of in 2001: an Elite Eight finish. Some traditional powers are in major rebuilding mode this season and may not be factors at all: North Carolina (0 returning starters), Kansas (0), Oklahoma State (1), Pittsburgh (1), Georgia Tech (0), Mississippi State(0) and Florida (2) will be unrecognizable until the new crop of talent makes its mark.
There's much to look forward to in preseason tournaments this year. The MAUI INVITATIONAL is a can't-miss event; the final rounds of the GUARDIANS CLASSIC, the NIT SEASON TIP-OFF and COACHES VS CANCER should all be worth checking out; and the GREAT ALASKA SHOOTOUT should also be solid.
We're on the road to Indianapolis this year. Play ball!
-- Ron
Conversion Points
One of the storylines of this season was going to be The Three Curtises: (a)bCurtis Stinson of Iowa State, (b)fCurtis Withers of Charlotte and (c)fCurtis Sumpter of Villanova. (3Ca)bStinson is joined by Cyclone backcourtmate gWill Blalock in search of help up front after the departure of cJared Homan. (3Cb)fWithers lost two-thirds of last year's three-headed 49er attack (tEddie Basden and gBrendan Plavich) and hopes to get help from ex-Oklahoma transfer tDe'Angelo Alexander as a substitute. Unfortunately, we're down to only two Curtises with (3Cc)fSumpter re-injuring his knee in preseason practice with surgery to come and most likely the entire season to be missed; however, the Wildcats do still boast the nation's deepest backcourt cadre in gAllan Ray, bRandy Foye, gMike Nardi and gKyle Lowry with patched up cJason Fraser in the paint in pursuit of their most promising season in twenty years.
The highlight of the upcoming week is the conclusion of the COACHES VS CANCER CLASSIC on Thursday and Friday. Florida's no-names have the most balanced roster and Texas Tech has the strongest backcourt; both of those teams appear to be ahead of the CP works-in-progress of Wake Forest and Syracuse at this stage. Look for Bob Knight to be The Man in New York.
The home crowd should be enough to carry host Washington past Miami(Florida) [with only two-thirds of its three-guard attack healthy] in Tuesday's expected final in the BCA CLASSIC. Charlotte and (3Cb)fCurtis Withers should complete the job of winning at Wyoming in the BCA INVITATIONAL.
West Virginia has already advanced to next week's GUARDIANS CLASSIC semifinals in Kansas City; Texas, Kentucky and Iowa should have no trouble in their respective showcase regionals this week. Likewise, most of the early-round games in the NIT SEASON TIP-OFF should be formalities -- in fact, Duke won't face an opponent that will come within 20 points of it until the final; on Thursday, though, Temple may frustrate resurgent UCLA before they advance to New York; and Alabama and Memphis should meet in a matchup worthy of Madison Square Garden just for the right to get to NYC. Still, none of the likely contenders figures to be able to handle the Blue Devils in the paint in the eventual final.
The TOP OF THE WORLD CLASSIC marks the Division I debut of Kennesaw State; alas, the Owls' only chance for a victory should be the fight for seventh place with D-II host Alaska-Fairbanks; Denver and Illinois-Chicago should meet in the second-tier final. The South Regional of the HISPANIC COLLEGE FUND CLASSIC in Raleigh, NC won't be much of a test for host N.C. State; the West Regional in Eugene, OR only figures to present one worthy matchup: Pacific at Oregon a week from Tuesday. No one in the SOUTH PADRE ISLAND INVITATIONAL will present any problem for Illinois. The expected final a week from Saturday of Boston College vs Oklahoma State is the only pairing worth paying attention to in the LAS VEGAS THANKSGIVING INVITATIONAL. Wisconsin and Old Dominion should meet in next Monday's final of the PARADASE JAM in St. Thomas, VI.
-- Ron
Florida Orange Harvest
A couple of crazy upsets happened on Saturday which are both more and less than what they appeared. Michigan State stopped off to play at Hawaii and fell 84-62. We've seen teams succumb to the heat and humidity this time of year on this same road trip and this was another case as both cPaul Davis and gShannon Brown cramped up severely. While that's a fixable conditioning issue, what it also reveals is that the Spartans don't have nearly the same depth as last year. This year, if two of their three star players don't perform, gMaurice Ager is all that's left to fight the fight and he wasn't nearly enough. Similary, Stanford's fMatt Haryasz sat out with an ankle injury and the Cardinal fell at home to UC-Irvine, 79-63. tDan Grunfeld did step up with 29p/9r while gChris Hernandez added 13p5a but what was supposed to be an easy blowout opener was anything but that. One guy isn't worth a 40-point turnaround, so his expected return won't fix everything that ails the Cardinal by itself.
Washington and North Carolina State cruised through their respective three-day home showcases. UW won the BCA CLASSIC (with freshman fJon Brockman as MVP) and NCSU took the SOUTH bracket of the HISPANIC COLLEGE FUND CLASSIC. bGavin Grant has stepped into the lineup for the Wolfpack as a mini-version of the departed Julius Hodge and the transition looks pretty smooth so far.
Winthrop, with all five starters back from last year's Big South champs, went into Milwaukee and became Unwelcome Guest victors over host Marquette in the BLUE AND GOLD CLASSIC. UNC-Wilmington did much the same, knocking off host Wyoming on the way to the BCA INVITATIONAL title in Laramie. Denver need overtime to edge Illinois-Chicago in the finals of the TOP OF THE WORLD CLASSIC in Fairbanks, AK.
To remain in the running for "Super Elite" status, teams should still be in hyper-blowout mode against any no-name opponents. That means 40-point victories where your bench pours it on their bench with no let-up. Texas, Duke and Villanova qualify; Washington, Iowa, N.C. State, Oklahoma are still in the neighborhood. Gonzaga, Illinois, Nevada and Wisconsin have all shown some less-than-dominating form already.
It's the biggest week of the preseason on tap. The best matchups we'll see for a while are probably coming a month too soon for the results to carry complete meaning into the regular season and beyond. The MAUI INVITATIONAL has the best lineup of any preseason tournament in recent memory. (It's just too bad these same teams aren't playing in the RAINBOW CLASSIC in December, instead.) First up on Monday and Tuesday: Texas, Kentucky, Iowa and West Virginia slug it out in the conclusion of the GUARDIANS CLASSIC in Kansas City. Away from Rupp, this young UK team is vulnerable but no one will touch UT. On Monday thru Wednesday in MAUI: Connecticut, Arizona, Gonzaga, Michigan State, Maryland, new-look Kansas and even young Arkansas are all good enough to win at least one game against this top-calibre competition. Picking a winner is futile; a different squad would win next week or next month. Just sit back and enjoy all the games. In the NIT SEASON TIP-OFF on Wednesday and Friday: Memphis has already impressed with its convincing road win at Alabama last week; the Tigers' frontcourt horses should be enough to prevail over UCLA in the semifinals; their fullcourt pressure may bother Duke in the final for a while but expect halfcourt execution to be their undoing.
Bucknell has everybody back from last year's NCAA splash team and a trip abroad in the off-season should have had them ready to hit the ground running; but the Bison barely escaped 56-54 in their opener on the road at Rider. Visiting Syracuse on Tuesday is a much tougher task, but perhaps they'll rise to it. Nevada visits UNLV on Saturday in what could be the highest profile matchup between those two in-state rivals yet -- each one is a likely favorite to win its conference, the WAC and Mountain West.
If you can believe it, Georgia State is actually starting up conference play in the Colonial this week when Delaware comes to town on Tuesday; Charlotte also comes in on Saturday. Georgia Tech has been placed on two-year probation by the NCAA for playing ineligible players in several sports. For the hoops team, it could take some of the pressure off of what was already going to be a tough season.
-- Ron
"What We Have Here (Is A Failure To Separate)"
Connecticut escaped at the buzzer over Gonzaga in the MAUI final; that the Huskies were able to keep the Arizona semifinal from being a buzzer-beater gives them the slightest edge and the nod as this week's No. 1 team; and all without their real point guard (gMarcus Williams will be back in January; gA.J. Price won't be back at all this season). Michigan State needed another overtime to edge Arizona in the third-place game. UofA struggled mightily with bad shooting in MAUI but did well to drub Virginia 81-51 on Sunday night in payback for last year's surprise upset.
In the GUARDIANS CLASSIC, West Virginia had Texas beaten but missed three 1-and-1s down the stretch and didn't get a call on a block by UT's cLaMarcus Aldridge on WVU's tMike Gansey at the buzzer as the Longhorns escaped 76-75 in the semifinal. Iowa beat Kentucky 67-63 in the semifinal despite 19 rebounds from UK's 6-1 gRajon Rondo (he of the ET-like fingers). Kentucky's quickness on the perimeter stopped WVU 80-66 for third place while Texas came back from trailing most of the game to hold off Iowa 68-59 in the final. West Virginia is one of the most enjoyable teams to watch with their spread offense and "you've been Pittsnogled" 6-11 center who can drain 3s; but for all their entertainment value, the Mountaineers were 0-3 on the week, also losing at home to LSU 71-68 in overtime on Saturday.
In the NIT SEASON TIP-OFF, 3-3 Drexel battled Duke for a half (trailing only 40-41 after the first period) before losing 78-68 in the semifinal; then the Dragons choked the game away after leading 56-51 before UCLA escaped 57-56 on a time-expired free throw by bJordan Farmar; like West Virginia it was another crowd-pleasing 0-3 week as they later fell 68-60 to Penn on Saturday. This week was likely the highlight of their season as they aren't likely to make it out of the Colonial into the NCAAs (even if it were to get two bids) with the likes of Old Dominion, UNC-Wilmington, VCU and Hofstra solidly ahead of them. Back in the fall of 1991, five freshmen battled #1 Duke into overtime before losing and the legend of Michigan's Fab Five was born. There's an eerie similarity to that introduction onto the national scene and Memphis' final against Duke. The Tigers are free-wheeling and stylish finishers; their undisciplined play makes them fun to watch (and also cost them the game at the end). Duke-haters must gone wild over this game: tRodney Carney(12p) actually did a solid job shutting down gJ.J. Redick(15p) in the second half (and bloodied up the pretty boy in the process); there were plenty of no-calls that would have been fouls on anybody but Duke down the stretch; and, to top it off, the game-winner came on a tip-in by cShelden Williams(30p8r) which the overhead replay clearly showed to be a goal-tend but somehow the refs in person (and Dick Vitale commentating) saw it as a clean tap out of the cylinder, leading to Duke's 70-67 win. This Memphis team has "cult following" written all over it: the Tigers will destroy all comers in the very weak Conference USA this year; they host Gonzaga (Dec 27) and Texas (Jan 2) in what should be highlight-reel shootouts; and don't forget the built-in following that gDarius Washington already has from last year after blowing those time-expired free throws against Louisville that would have given the Memphis an NCAA berth. This team may go nowhere in the tournament, but no one else will be more fun to watch during the season.
Even in the lesser preseason tournaments, the expected winners weren't able to cruise through without a scare. Boston College won the LAS VEGAS INVITATIONAL THANKSGIVING bracket, but not before eeking out an 87-84 win over Drake and then holding off Oklahoma State in the final. Illinois needed to be saved by the buzzer to escape 55-54 against Wichita State in the SOUTH PADRE ISLAND INVITATIONAL before emerging as the champ. Wisconsin beat Old Dominion 84-81 in the final to win the PARADISE JAM. Marquette, which couldn't win its own showcase tournament at home (thanks to Winthrop), needed OT to beat South Carolina 92-89 in the final after escaping 73-70 over Oral Roberts in the semifinal of the GREAT ALASKA SHOOTOUT.
With all the parity in neutral-site tournament play, there were some real road warriors on the week. Bucknell did indeed come through on the road at Syracuse, winning 74-69 in the Carrier Dome. The Bison are a veteran squad -- remember they won at Pittsburgh last year in the biggest preseason shocker from a year ago and backed it up with an upset of Kansas in the NCAA tournament. LSU went into Morgantown and solved the riddle of West Virginia's spread offense, winning 71-68(OT) as the Mountaineers shot 15-for-45 on three pointers. Nevada beat back in-state rival UNLV 68-61 in Las Vegas. Most surprising of all, though, was the Unwelcome Guest victory of unheralded Iona, which went 3-0 to win the CYCLONE CHALLENGE, including an 89-72 drubbing of host Iowa State. ISU features a great backcourt in (3Ca)bCurtis Stinson and gWill Blalock, but they were outplayed by Iona's bRicky Soliver and gSteve Burtt, who both scored 23 points. (Soliver had 30 points, 8 assists and 10 steals in a game earlier in the week against Portland State.)
Most of the big games from last week could easily have gone the other way on the turn of just a few plays or calls. "Parity, Thy Name is the 2005 Preseason." Once teams settle into their identities (and all of these conversion point guard experiments either succeed or fail), we'll have more definitive separation among the elite teams. For now, it's as much of a toss-up as it ever has been.
The week upcoming is much more quiet than the one just past. The highlight is the ACC-BIG 10 CHALLENGE that runs Monday through Wednesday. Unfortunately, the matchups and injuries/ineligibility leave the reality much less attractive than what might have been. With the ACC weaker than normal and the Big 10 headed for a strong season, it just might be the year that the Big 10 can win this head-to-head clash. Newcomer Boston College isn't playing (although they'll get to face Michigan State in a week in the JIMMY V CLASSIC), but last year's newbies, Miami(Florida) and Virginia Tech, will make it an 11-team affair this time. Solid Ohio State should handle a Virginia Tech team in turmoil; young Illinois against younger North Carolina in Chapel Hill is a toss-up; Wisconsin at Wake Forest should be a great game -- give the Deacons the edge at home; Michigan should handle Miami(Florida) even though both teams are missing key guards; home cooking should make the difference as lowly Florida State hosts even lowlier Purdue; Clemson has things going a bit better than Penn State and could prevail even on the road; without fD.J. White, the ex-Auburn duo of fMarco Killingsworth and gLewis Monroe probably can't match up with Duke's cShelden Williams and gJ.J. Redick even at home; if Georgia Tech can't stay within 20 points at home against Illinois-Chicago there's no way they can stay with Michigan State on the road; Iowa hosting N.C. State has the chance to be the best game of the bunch -- the Hawkeyes are playing great but the Wolfpack's spread offense could give them trouble even in Iowa City; Maryland should trounce a bVincent Grier-less Minnesota team; Northwestern is better but probably can't win on the road at Virginia. It says here: ACC 6, Big 10 5.
Villanova, Oklahoma and Washington finally get real tests this week. VU hosts OU on Saturday while UW hosts Gonzaga in what promises to be another fabulous shootout on Sunday. Nevada won't have any trouble visiting disappointing Pacific on Saturday, but can the Wolf Pack really go into Lawrence on Thursday and beat even the young Kansas Jayhawks? (Probably not.) Winning at Marquette is one thing, but can Winthrop really win at Alabama? (Memphis did it, but the Eagles won't.)
-- Ron
The best pair of games last week was actually Oklahoma at Villanova on Saturday and Gonzaga at Washington on Sunday. OU and VU are nearly opposite in style: the Sooners are strong in the paint with fTaj Gray(22p7r) and cKevin Bookout(15p) and did a reasonable job controlling the tempo on the road, leading 25-15 midway through the first half; whereas the Wildcats start four guards and want an up-and-down game; in the end, gRandy Foye(32p) and gAllan Ray(22p) were the deciding factor in an 85-74 Villanova win. Both teams shot well over 50% from the field with OU controlling the boards 29-20 and VU shooting 23-for-25 on free throws. To top that, Washington and Gonzaga put on their own shootout that was every bit as good as the Gonzaga-Michigan State game in MAUI. That man fAdam Morrison even tossed in another 43 points (this time, all in regulation), but it wasn't enough as the Huskies prevailed 99-95 over the Bulldogs. Even though it lost a lot of talent from last year, UW still has plenty more as fJamaal Williams(22p) led five players in double-figures. gDerek Raivio took a hard fall in the first half and sat out the second period, and that may have been the deciding factor in a game that turned on a couple of key possessions in the closing minutes.
"The Replacements" (the essentially brand new squads at several major programs) are starting to come around. Florida has already broken out of the pack and escaped that tag. The Gators continue to roll with a balanced team that has poise to match its youthful exuberance. North Carolina hung in with Illinois at home and then managed to pull off an 83-79 win on the road in Rupp Arena at Kentucky; it was "veterans" tReyshawn Terry(25p7r) and fDavid Noel(15p) doing the damage against UK's weak front line, but the youngsters also came through. Georgia Tech was surprisingly able to hang with Michigan State, but that was a finesse shootout without a lot of power ball in the paint. Oklahoma State did give Boston College a decent game before losing in the final of the LAS VEGAS THANKSGIVING bracket. Kansas hasn't quite been able to gel yet; the Jayhawks lost at home to solid Nevada, 72-70, as cNick Fazekas had 23p/11r and tMo Charlo(22p8r) sank 11-for-11 free throws to preserve the victory. Mississippi State's brand new starting five is hanging in there but has no signature win yet.
After losing its first game at home, 61-62 to VCU, Houston pulled off two narrow victories over ranked opponents: first, coming back on the road to win 84-83 at LSU; and then, hanging onto the lead at home against erratic Arizona to win 69-65 behind 32 points from gOliver Lafayette. The Cougars won't stay around in the rankings, but give them credit for a great week. They may be the only team in Conference USA that can give Memphis a game, but the only meeting this season is at Memphis in March. Alabama held off a very solid Winthrop squad, winning 70-67 at home, earning a return to the rankings.
Besides holiday tournaments in vacation spots, the preseason is also full of individual rivalry games and "State Title" series. In football, there aren't enough games on the schedule for the major teams in a given state to face each other in the same season; in basketball, we almost get a full menu of it. After long avoiding one another years ago, Kentucky and Louisville now go head-to-head every season; in fact, UK, UofL often join Indiana and Notre Dame in a Bluegrass Quaternity of round-robin match-ups. In the '60s, Duke, North Carolina, NC State and Wake Forest used to play a 4-team (non-conference) tournament called the Big Four, but they have long since let the ACC results replace the private grudge matches. The best on-going set of rivalry games remains the Big Five among Philadelphia schools. In the past, The Palestra (on Penn's campus) served as home court for Penn, Villanova, St. Joseph's, La Salle and Temple in Big Five double-header games. Everyone has their own arena now but the teams still play one another head-to-head (and have added Drexel as the sixth member in the City Series). Villanova and St. Joseph's didn't participate in Saturday's BIG 5 CLASSIC double-header -- Temple 50 Penn 46; La Salle 62 [Drexel] 50 -- but they'll still play all the teams individually this season. In most other cases, the "State Title" may consist of only one major game. We've already seen Nevada win at UNLV, and Washington just beat Gonzaga on Sunday. The Maryland/D.C.-area schools square off Monday in the BB&T CLASSIC, this year as a triple-header headlined by Maryland vs George Washington. (Too bad they can't get Georgetown to join in.) These match-ups work best when the teams belong to separate conferences. The Iowa schools (Iowa, Iowa State, Northern Iowa, with Drake included as well) are probably the strongest set of teams that fit the bill. Just behind them are Wisconsin, Marquette and Wisconsin-Milwaukee (with Wisconsin-Green Bay added in). Five or six of those teams could make the NCAA field.
Some key players on the national scene have returned to the court. fDavid Padgett is now playing for Louisville (but it'll be another week before the Cardinals face a real team, Kentucky). fPops Mensah-Bonsu is back from suspension for George Washington in time for the BB&T game with Maryland. fLeon Powe is actually on the court for California -- he's a power frontcourt player much in the mold of what we just saw from Indiana's cMarco Killingsworth; if he stays healthy, there's room in the suddenly soft Pac-10 for Cal to make an impact.
The headliner match-ups this week are Boston College vs Michigan State on Tuesday in the JIMMY V CLASSIC in New York, Texas vs Duke on Saturday in East Rutherford, and Boston College's first ACC game: on the road at Maryland on Sunday. (And don't forget to take a peak at the score when Villanova visits Bucknell on Tuesday night.)
-- Ron
Trade Embargo
Villanova went on the road and crushed a very good Bucknell team, 79-60. The nation's best cadre of backcourt players ruled the day as bRandy Foye(28p11r), gAllan Ray(20p) and bKyle Lowry(15p5r) all excelled while shutting down the Bison's bCharles Lee(3p1a;1-for-10 shooting), but BU's cChris McNaughton(29p5r) was able to exploit the Wildcat's weakness in the paint. (Remember that VU has already handled Oklahoma's formidable frontcourt attack, though; so there aren't all that many teams who will be able to do enough damage inside on them to compensate for their huge advantage on the outside.)
Gonzaga needed a three-point bank shot prayer from fAdam Morrison(25p6r) to escape with a 64-62 win over the Replacement Players at Oklahoma State. OSU isn't as good as the score might appear, though, since the 'Zags sorely missed gDerek Raivio, who sat out the second straight game after injuring his back against Washington. Without him, GU shot 39% from the floor, was only 3-for-8 on three-pointers as a team, and had only 4 assists for the entire game.
Boston College seems to be the cure for whatever ails you. Michigan State righted itself with a 77-70 win over BC on Tuesday in the JIMMY V CLASSIC thanks to getting some easier baskets on the perimeter and in transition than the Eagles are able to get for themselves. fJared Dudley(23p6r) and fCraig Smith(18p9r) are as tough a pair of forwards as anywhere in the country, but Guards Rule and the BC backcourt is only ordinary. After George Washington's superior guardplay led the Colonials to a 78-70 win over Maryland in their local showdown in the BB&T CLASSIC on Monday, the Terrapins were able to pull out a 73-71 home win on Sunday in BC's ACC debut. Once again, the Eagles' guards, especially freshman gTyrese Rice, made some costly miscues late in a tight game that were decisive (along with 5-for-15 free throw shooting). In a similar fashion, UCLA's backcourt of gJordan Farmar(24p;10-for-12 shooting) and bArron Afflalo(18p8r) negated another fine performance inside by Nevada's cNick Fazekas(24p7r) in their 67-56 win in the JOHN WOODEN CLASSIC.
... And the "Iowa State Title" goes to ... Iowa State. Thanks mostly to a knee injury suffered by Iowa's gJeff Horner in the second half against Northern Iowa, the UofI's Hawkeyes fell 63-67 in OT against UNI's Panthers on Tuesday and then lost 60-72 to ISU's Cyclones without him entirely. He should be back in a couple of weeks, but if not, this season could unravel just like so many others for coach Steve Alford. After stumbling 67-72 on the road at Indiana State in one of their own "State Title" games, Indiana regrouped (and then some) with a convincing 79-53 drubbing of Kentucky in front of a split crowd in Indianapolis. gA.J. Ratliff(21p)'s outside contribution combined with cMarco Killingsworth's 23p/11r on the inside to make this year's Hoosiers look very much like The Real Thing. (And they still have fD.J. White waiting in the wings.)
Things are pretty slow for this week before some more (minor) tournament action gets going next week. The biggest game on paper is Saturday when Louisville visits Kentucky. After what IU just did to UK, there's added pressure on UofL to make a similar statement in its first big game. So far gTaquan Dean has been fine as the lone star in the backcourt -- and it's the frontcourt where Kentucky has problems, anyway -- but one good guard may not be enough against some of the better teams out there. Wisconsin may have more trouble on Monday against UNC-Wilmington (Unwelcome Guest winners at the BCA INVITATIONAL in Laramie) than it will in its "State Title" game on Thursday against struggling Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Winthrop couldn't quite pull off the road upset at Alabama a week ago, but the Eagles might well do so on the road against state-rival South Carolina on Wednesday. North Carolina's Replacement Players get to avenge last year's season-opening loss to Santa Clara on Saturday.
-- Ron
Intense Reaction
Meanwhile, Kentucky and Louisville played their "State Title" rivalry game in Lexington. The Cardinals have been running up the score on no-name opponents while the Wildcats have played a solid preseason schedule. UK hasn't looked overly great up to now, but they were clearly ahead of the level of UL. Really, only one player had a good game -- gRajon Rondo (25p/7a ; 10-for-15 on free throws) -- but that was more than enough. bTaquan Dean had 14p/6a/5r, but he shot 5-for-16 (and 2-for-10 on three-pointers) and was not in control of the Cardinal team. Louisville was still in basket-trader mode, throwing up wild shots, and was out of the game before halftime. Kentucky got more good news when the NCAA declared cRandolph Morris eligible beginning in January. He'll help for sure, but UK has actually gotten reasonable contributions from its other three backup 7-footers (cShagari Alleyne, cLukasz Obrzut and cJared Carter). What the Wildcats really need is for a forward to step up to be the receiving end of Rondo's playmaking. So far no one among fRekalin Sims, fBobby Perry, fSheray Thomas or even bJoe Crawford has been able to provide consistent production. It was supposedly a down year for the SEC, but first Florida and now Tennessee have exceeded expectations in short order. (The SEC team with the worst record right now, 5-3 Alabama, is one of the league's strongest teams on paper.)
Indiana State (6-0) won the unofficial "Indiana State Title" by a combined total of 7 points in its three wins over Indiana, Ball State and Butler. (Notre Dame and Purdue don't fully participate with in-state rivals.) Wisconsin swept Wisconsin-Green Bay, Marquette and Wisconsin-Milwaukee without too much trouble. South Alabama edged Houston in front of a home crowd in the COORS CLASSIC ending the Cougars' brief appearance in the rankings. Don't expect UH to have enough discipline to remain a factor in the Conference USA race until they meet Memphis in March. Ohio State (7-0) came from behind to beat struggling Iowa State in Des Moines, 70-67. ISU's backcourt of (3Ca)bCurtis Stinson and gWill Blalock dominate the ball, but they don't shoot well from three-point range and their offense basically consists of getting points off of turnovers from their press. OSU has a nice solid team (and plenty of incentive this year after a self-imposed ban on postseason play last year), but Iona has already shown that beating Iowa State in front of their own fans is no great feat.
Tennessee should keep its road romp through the Big 12 going when it plays the Replacement Players of Oklahoma State as part of the ALL-COLLEGE CLASSIC double-header in Oklahoma City on Thursday. Don't expect another shootout with a buzzer-beater ending when Indiana and Charlotte get together on Monday. IU is heading for the heights while UNCC has been hit-and-miss all year so far. (3Cb)fCurtis Withers should rise to the occasion of matching up with cMarco Killingsworth, but he doesn't have the same amount of help other than gunner tDe'Angelo Alexander.
They have the numbers on paper, but N.C. State and LSU both need signature wins to legitimize their gaudy records. A convincing road win at Alabama on Thursday would help make the Wolfpack's case. A sweep of Northern Iowa at home and a neutral site win over Cincinnati in the final round of the LAS VEGAS [CHRISTMAS] CLASSIC would erase the stigma of the Tigers' come-from-ahead home loss earlier to Houston.
Host Hawaii should have enough to beat back Iowa State in the finals of the RAINBOW CLASSIC on Friday. Look for "South Carolina State Champ" Clemson to beat the Replacement Players of Mississippi State in the final of the SAN JUAN SHOOTOUT on Wednesday.
Put a suicide watch on the fans when disappointing Stanford plays disappointing Princeton in what could be the ugliest game of the year as part of the PETE NEWELL CHALLENGE double-header in Oakland on Wednesday.
-- Ron
[EDITOR'S NOTE: Next week's column will come out on Tuesday, 27 December.]
Soft Spread For The Hard Road
Oklahoma State's Replacement Players finally got the signature victory that has eluded them so far. The Cowboys used a 22-5 spurt at the end of the game, keyed by lone holdover gJamesOn Curry(16p7a7r), to hand Tennessee its first defeat, 89-73, also at the ALL-COLLEGE CLASSIC. The Volunteers played solidly enough, and they'll have plenty of opportunity to re-earn a place in the rankings once SEC play starts up; but for now the bounce from their rout of Texas is over. Meanwhile, North Carolina's Replacement Players have also used up the buzz they gained from winning at Kentucky -- the Tar Heels went on the road and lost 59-74 to unheralded USC. Freshman cTyler Hansbrough and senior fDavid Noel have been consistent contributors every time out for UNC, but the main problem is in the backcourt where gBobby Frasor has been overmatched athletically in some games.
Florida continues to impress. The Gators trailed 59-64 with 7 minutes left on the road at state-rival Miami(Florida), but continued to show poise under pressure and rallied to win 77-67 and remain undefeated. UF sports five players averaging double-figures and is the most complete team in the SEC. Kentucky held off stubborn Iona, 73-67, in Louisville behind another do-it-all performance from bRajon Rondo(13p5a5r); UK's formula is to dominate the boards with its stable of 7-footers and let Rondo's hustle do the rest; that's enough for now but a team that can deal with the Wildcats' size (like Indiana) can handle them. Arkansas (9-2) is quietly winning comfortably and won 78-65 on the road at reeling Texas Tech. This was supposed to be the breakout week for LSU (who leads the nation in rebounding), but Les Bons Temps Ne Roulaient Pas for the Tigers in the LAS VEGAS [CHRISTMAS] CLASSIC. Instead, Northern Iowa (54-50 in Baton Rouge) and Cincinnati (75-72 in Las Vegas) both squeaked by LSU and wound up sharing the crown at 4-0 each. (For some reason, they didn't play each other while Cincinnati played Dayton for the second time this year.) UNI is short (6-7 across the baseline), but its ball control offense, led by bBen Jacobson, is rock solid if it can get the game to an endplay and shoot free throws down the stretch. Cincinnati doesn't have height, but interim coach Andy Kennedy has done a fine job getting to team to focus on the court in the aftermath of the ousting of Bob Huggins over the summer. tJames White has the talent to dominate but not the will to do it for a full 40 minutes; with UC trailing 67-72 with 3 minutes to go, White canned 2 three-pointers and sank 2 free throws to rescue victory from defeat.
Arizona is fighting to find some form and hanging in there. The Wildcats escaped 86-81 in overtime to win the showcase FIESTA BOWL CLASSIC over Western Kentucky. Iowa State is the "State Champ" and just won the RAINBOW CLASSIC, but it's still quite a struggle for the Cyclones. The backcourt of bCurtis Stinson and pWill Blalock is their strength and they rely on points off turnovers more than most -- to be a guard-driven team, they struggle shooting from the perimeter. ISU beat WAC-favorite Colorado State, 87-80, in the final but needed double-overtime to escape 81-77 over Northwestern State in the semifinal. Southland-favorite NWSU isn't the pushover you might expect; the Replacement Killers have already beaten Oklahoma State in Stillwater and Mississippi State in Starkville; the Demons won't pull off a splash first-round victory in the NCAAs, but they are the certain favorite in the Play-In game. Unbeaten (but untested) Clemson won the SAN JUAN SHOOTOUT over MAC-contender Akron in the final, 66-59.
Indiana welcomed back fD.J. White and posted two impressive wins, 71-54 on the road at reeling Charlotte, and 73-55 in front of a split crowd against Butler in Indianapolis. fWhite needs to figure out how to fit in without disrupting the already great chemistry on offense between cMarco Killingsworth(17p5r and 27p6r), tRobert Vaden(14p4r and 22p7r) and the multiple threats from three-point range. This team could get hot at tournament time and make it through to the Final Four (but much depends on the quality of the IU D). Washington welcomed back tMike Jensen to its interchangeable stable of 'tweeners; and Boston College has reinstated cSean Williams from suspension -- the Eagles need his help on the boards but he won't do much for their problem scoring easy points from the perimeter.
The only Top-10 match-up for the week comes right away on Tuesday night when Gonzaga travels to meet host Memphis. The Bulldogs have been playing even ordinary teams very close yet finding ways to escape with the win; that luck may well run out this time. Memphis has been resting gDarius Washington, who has a thigh injury; if tRodney Carney can shut down fAdam Morrison the way he was able to do against Duke's gJ.J. Redick, he may well sew up Defensive Player of the Year before the end of December. The Tigers' roster is deep with talent, but the 'Zags have already gone to the wire against Connecticut and Washington and an up-and-down game is just what they want. On Saturday, George Washington travels to N.C. State, LSU visits Ohio State and Alabama goes on the road to Oklahoma (in an old-fashioned slug-it-out-in-the-paint affair). Louisville gets another chance to post a solid win when it plays Miami(Florida) on the road in the ORANGE BOWL CLASSIC. Pittsburgh finally gets a real test when it hosts Wisconsin.
Ready or not, here comes conference play. The Pac-10 gets going early this week with UCLA and surprising USC hosting Stanford and California on Thursday and then swapping things up on Saturday; and Arizona faces an early showdown with Washington on Saturday as well.
-- Ron
Where In The World Is [Your Team Here]?
Memphis can thank the home crowd for rescuing it in its come-from-behind 83-72 win over Gonzaga. The Bulldogs led the way for most of that game as fAdam Morrison had 34 points midway through the second half. Then suddenly, the Tigers woke up and went on a 10-0 run to take control of the game as Morrison went scoreless for the last 9 minutes of the game. It sounds strange to say it, but Memphis would probably lock up a #1-seed for the NCAA tournament with a win on Monday against Texas. The Tigers' only blemish is a 3-point loss to Duke, and they aren't likely to stumble the rest of the way in weak Conference USA.
N.C. State put a hurt on sluggish George Washington, 79-58. The (one-word) Wolfpack is in its own mini-race with Wake Forest and North Carolina for the second slot (after Duke) in the coveted Greensboro Pod in the NCAAs. NCSU has the edge on those other two in preseason performance; as long as they stay ahead of them in conference play, they could get a comfortable path through to the Sweet 16.
Pittsburgh and Ohio State validated their undefeated records with wins over quality opponents. Pitt played tough D against Wisconsin, winning 73-64 behind gCarl Krauser's 23 points. Ohio State willingly accepted LSU's gift as the Tigers blew a 73-58 lead with 6 minutes left as the Buckeyes closed with a 20-3 run, capped by a game-winning three-pointer by tMatt Sylvester (the same guy who sank Illinois' undefeated season last year). LSU has a fantastic set of frontcourt players, led by cGlen Davis(25p7r), but as soon as gTack Minor became eligible last week in Las Vegas, he injured his knee and now has to have surgery. Freshman gBen Voogd isn't ready yet to give gDarrel Mitchell the help he needs in the backcourt.
UAB has regrouped and routed Oklahoma State, 90-71. Bucknell wasn't able to pull off the Unwelcome Guest thing in the CABLE CAR CLASSIC and lost to host Santa Clara, 77-68. On paper, the Bison match up pretty well with Monday's opponent, Duke: cChris McNaughton should be able to occupy cShelden Williams, and bCharles Lee and gKevin Bettencourt are a solid pair to go up against gJ.J. Redick and gSean Dockery. The problem for BU is that, a baby bull guard probably can't contain Redick -- it took a long, quick 'tweener to do that the one time that it's happened this year. If they can't win on the road at Santa Clara, don't expect much when they travel to Durham. Oklahoma won the frontcourt matchup with Alabama in a big way, outrebounding the Crimson Tide 40-18 as cKevin Bookout had 18p/8r. Nevada's (two-word) Wolf Pack stumbled on the road at St. Mary's, 89-80. Ohio U had Kentucky on the ropes in front of a split crowd in Cincinnati, but the Bobcats couldn't close the deal, falling 71-63. 9-1 Air Force handled the Replacement Players at Georgia Tech, 54-46 to establish itself as the favorite in the weak Mountain West.
Regular season play gets under way in full this week, so it's time to re-check exactly where we're at thanks to the Great Conference Shuffle. Even though the ACC won its head-to-head challenge with the Big 10, the conference games in the Big 10 look much more compelling than in the ACC.
-- Ron
The Big Six
Meanwhile, the Gators keep turning in the same box score: balanced scoring, strong rebounding, good shooting from three-point range and at the free-throw line, plenty of assists and steals. It's a broken record. With the on-again, off-again performances by Kentucky (they fell 46-73 at Kansas), the Gators appear to be the clear favorites in the SEC. No-name Tennessee continues to grind out wins with mediocre talent and high effort level; LSU's fabulous front line outplayed Connecticut's on Saturday as the Tigers led for most of the game up in Hartford, but their lack of help in the backcourt for gDarrel Mitchell undid them yet again, as UConn came back to win, 67-66 -- LSU is now 7-5, with all five losses by a combined total of 11 points; young Arkansas dropped its opener on the road at Mississippi State; Alabama has fallen completely off the map with a home loss to Mississippi. No reason those blue and orange box scores shouldn't continue to look the same for the next two months.
Marquette debuted in the Big East with an eye-popping 94-79 upset of Connecticut (despite the return of gMarcus Williams) behind tSteve Novak's 41-point/16-rebound effort; a great start but Cincinnati caught them later in the week with a 70-66 road win (thanks to cEric Hicks' triple-double: 22p12r10b). Texas finally turned in an elite performance deserving of its roster with a 69-58 road win at Memphis. The game was pretty sloppy on both sides, but the best player on the floor by far was the Longhorns' fP.J. Tucker(24p13r); Tucker is all of 6-5 and not that bulky, but he's a power forward who rarely takes threes and scores all of his points in the paint; the return of fBrad Buckman and Tucker's assertion that this is still his team seem to have righted the ship. (We'll see if they can keep it going on Saturday when Villanova's guards come to town.) Speaking of the Wildcats, they won 76-67 at Louisville, as gTaquan Dean didn't have enough backcourt help against VU's four-guard attack; then Vilanova even led by 15 points early in the second half at home against West Virginia before they began to coast and the Mountaineers came all the way back to steal a 91-87 road win; cJason Fraser's best attribute is his defensive prowess but towards the end of that game coach Jay Wright was using an offense-defense substitution pattern that used Fraser for offense instead because a shot-blocking center is of little use trying to guard WVU's cKevin Pittsnogle shooting threes.
The Big East probably has 8-10 tournament-worthy teams right now. It's clearly the best conference top-to-bottom this year. But spare a thought for the Big 10, which has six teams playing Elite 8-calibre ball at the moment. The least of them is Michigan State, off to an 0-2 start after two tough road games, a team that some people picked #1 in the preseason and participated in still the best game of the year out in MAUI. When conference play comes around, and that home court advantage really kicks in, a team like Wisconsin goes from so-so to dominant in no time; the Badgers are terrific in front of their home crowd -- they beat Iowa 66-52 and then Michigan State 82-63 -- their best player, fAlando Tucker can't shoot free throws thanks to a clear mask he's wearing after breaking his nose earlier in the season (he was 6-for-17 against MSU) and their second-best player, bKammron Taylor only shows up every other game (27p vs MSU; 11p vs Iowa); Illinois has only lost three games in two years, beating Michigan State 60-50 at home (behind gDee Brown's 34 points) and finally losing at Iowa, 48-63; the Hawkeyes have to scrap for everything they get but they split the week between Wisconsin away and Illinois home; Ohio State led most of the game on the road at Indiana before the Hoosiers came all the way back to win, 81-79, as cMarco Killingsworth(26p5r) dueled cTerence Dials(25p8r); Michigan State hasn't been able to get any consistent production beyond its three stars (gMaurice Ager, cPaul Davis and gShannon Brown) but don't worry about the Spartans unless they lose at home this week against Indiana. The quality of those top-tier Big 10 matchups is better than your average Big East or ACC game.
Believe it or not, Gonzaga's win at St. Mary's probably means they've already locked up the WCC regular season title (especially if they win at Santa Clara on Monday night); with only an out-of-conference home game against Stanford left, the 'Zags shouldn't really lose again before the NCAA tournament (so leave 'em in the Top 10 for now and see if they can stay there without dropping). Washington lost at home to Washington State and is now in tons of trouble in the Pac-10 race; UCLA won at Arizona to tie the Wildcats and California at 3-1. Hawaii won in overtime against Nevada to take the early lead in the WAC race. Manhattan won big at Iona, 87-68, as the two-guard attack of the Gaels has left little opportunity for any other teammates to participate.
Syracuse basically has the same issue as Wake Forest (with gGerry McNamara's shooting suffering with his transition to running the point), but the Orange seem to be plugging along; they can return to rankability with a good week with road games at Notre Dame on Tuesday and at newcomer Cincinnati on Saturday. Iowa State was up-and-down in the preseason, but the Cyclones' pressure defense is the formula that gave Texas trouble when Tennessee threw it at them (with not much more talent than ISU has); if they can beat Texas on Monday night and win at Texas Tech on Saturday, all will be forgotten. Pittsburgh's undefeated run will likely end on Sunday when they visit newcomer Louisville. It's baptism by fire in league play for LSU's backcourt when they face the perimeter pressure of Arkansas on the road on Wednesday and Tennessee at home on Saturday (but tune in for the second coming of Charles Barkley: LSU's fGlen "Big Baby" Davis, a sweet combination of girth, power and finesse).
-- Ron
Thirty-Second Time's The Charm
Texas won an ugly game against visiting Villanova, 58-55: the Longhorns shot 39% from the floor as cLaMarcus Aldridge led the way with 19p5r5b; the Wildcats were even worse, shooting 27% as bRandy Foye(13p) and gAllan Ray(13p) combined to shoot 7-for-37. Still, the win last week (combined with the previous week's win at Memphis) finally gives UT some credentials worthy of the #1-seed that they're seeking at season's end. West Virginia made 20 three-pointers in its 104-85 rout of Marquette: gMike Gansey had 33p behind 8-for-11 shooting on 3s and cKevin Pittsnogle had 30p of his own.
The Great Conference Shuffle was supposed to yield powerhouse teams that came in and took over their new leagues right away. That hasn't happened so far at all. Louisville is in a tie for tenth place at 1-2 in the Big East; the Cardinals' thin backcourt was even more depleted against Pittsburgh as gTaquan Dean was ineffective (3p1a) trying to play on a sore ankle. Likewise, poor guardplay has hampered Boston College's initiation into the ACC; the Eagles are also in tenth place at 1-3 after being embarrassed in front of their own home crowd, 78-60 by visiting N.C. State and its perimeter attack. Charlotte, which struggled through the preseason, has at least started 3-1 in the Atlantic-10 (but just lost 78-65 at home to 11-2 Xavier). East Tennessee State expected to dominate the Atlantic Sun, but the Buccaneers are tied for fifth place at 4-3 at the moment (although ETSU does get to host the conference tournament at season's end). The best debut has been from Kennesaw State, which not only is new to the Atlantic Sun, but new to Division I altogether -- the Owls are tied for first at 6-1 (despite a 7-8 overall record and a negative scoring margin).
More signs of how weak many of the traditional powers are this year: two thirty-one-game streaks were broken last week. Vanderbilt won in Lexington for the first time since 1974 with a 57-52 win at Kentucky. Kansas State beat Kansas, 59-55, for the first time in thirty-two tries as well. [Now if Clemson could only break its 0-51 streak in Chapel Hill this year.] Quality guardplay seems to be the biggest missing ingredient this season. We even had a legitimate Big Man Matchup last week as Alabama's cJermario Davidson(28p8r) outbattled Kentucky's cRandolph Morris(19p6r) in the Crimson Tide's 68-64 road win. LSU was finally able to hold onto the lead in two games last week, winning 63-58 at Arkansas and then 88-74 at home against Tennessee. Now that it has all three of its guards together, Miami(Florida) has strung together wins over Maryland the previous week at home and over North Carolina on the road last week. The two most prominent Conversion Point experiments continue to go in opposite directions: Wake Forest's gJustin Gray had 22p7a against Clemson and 38p6a against Maryland, but both wound up as road losses. Syracuse's gGerry McNamara had similar numbers, 25p4a at Notre Dame, and 29p6a at Cincinnati, both road wins. Both players have similar quality talent surrounding them, but the Demon Deacons are not getting the other players involved regularly with the same success that the Orange have managed.
Michigan State won twice: 87-73 at home over Indiana, and 62-59(2OT) at Ohio State -- the first road breakthrough among the Big Six. Arizona, however, lost twice: at Oregon and at Oregon State, to fall out of the logjam at the top of the Pac-10; fortunately for the Wildcats, no one is running away in that race as Washington came from 15 down to win at UCLA, 69-65, resulting in five teams with two losses each in the standings. Cincinnati's overachieving run appears to be done with the season-ending injury of tArmien Kirkland; the Bearcats were already undersized as it was and Syracuse outrebounded them 51-27. More major injuries: UCLA's fJosh Shipp is out for the second time, as is Indiana's fD.J. White; Alabama's cChuck Davis' college career is over after a torn ACL.
Southern Illinois is quietly 12-3 and 6-0 in the competitive MVC. They'll get a true test when they visit Northern Iowa on Monday night. Valparaiso routed favorite Oral Roberts, 80-60, to tie them at the top of the Mid-Continent standings.
Syracuse has a rough week ahead with two Top-5 opponents: Connecticut comes to town on Monday night and then a road trip to Villanova on Saturday. Tennessee has it slightly easier with two Top-10 foes with a visit to Memphis on Wednesday and then a home game with Florida on Saturday. West Virginia visits UCLA on Saturday and Xavier hosts Cincinnati in the the CROSSTOWN SHOOTOUT in a couple of the few remaining intersectional games. The Big Six only meet once each this week: Illinois at Indiana (Tuesday), Wisconsin at Ohio State (Wednesday) and Iowa at Michigan State (Saturday).
-- Ron
B(ig)Eastly Takeover
Not to be outdone, St. John's (another sixth-place Big East squad) upset Louisville 68-56 earlier in the week before handing Pittsburgh its first loss on Saturday, 55-50. The Red Storm jumped out to a 14-0 lead and the Panthers were in catch-up mode for the rest of the game. 7' cAaron Gray(14p10r) is a force every game, but gCarl Krauser(10p3a;5-for-17fg) was off and as he goes so go the Panthers. Pitt has good young talent, but under pressure things degenerated into the star player trying to do it all himself and it didn't work. The defense will be there every night for this team, but the offense still isn't completely smooth.
Florida actually played very well (and led most of the game) on the road at Tennessee, but ended up falling 80-76. bChris Lofton(29p6r) was the main man for the Vols, who also played well in a losing effort earlier in the week on the road at Memphis, 88-79. Bruce Pearl's turnaround of UTn is the real thing. Expect Tennessee-Memphis to become a first-rate rivalry along the lines of Kentucky-Louisville in the coming years. None of the teams this year "deserved" to be undefeated, anyway; no one is in the league of Illinois and North Carolina from last year in either talent or execution. It's good that that distraction is out of the way now.
Besides upsetting two undefeated teams, the Big East also had league-leading West Virginia go on the road and win at UCLA, 60-56. The Mountaineers came out firing, leading 32-12 midway through the first half before the Bruins were able to climb their way back in the game. gMike Gansey(24p) was the only WVU player in double-figures, though, as cKevin Pittsnogle was held to 8p on 4-for-15 shooting by the mobile UCLA forwards. West Virginia has now beaten the Pac-10 co-leaders on the road, came from 15-down on the road to win at Villanova, went to the buzzer on a charge/block no-call with Texas in the preseason, and is the lone unbeaten team at 5-0 atop the strongest conference in the country. If those aren't Top-5 credentials, I don't know what are.
The Big Six took turns winning at home in their lone head-to-head matchups. Indiana barely held off Illinois, 62-60 behind cMarco Killingsworth's 23p/12r. Michigan State walloped Iowa, 85-55 in East Lansing; the overachieving Hawkeyes finally turned back into pumpkins as their poor shooting (35% against MSU; 1-for-20 on 3s at Minnesota) finally caught up to them. (A couple of home games this week against Indiana and Ohio State could cure what ails them, though.) Ohio State beat Wisconsin, 77-67, as the Badgers' fAlando Tucker(21p9r) and gKammron Taylor(21p) scored well but had 0 assists between the two of them. As if that weren't bad enough, UW followed up that road miscue with the worst result of the entire season: a home loss to Provisional Division I school, North Dakota State (8-9), as Tucker and Taylor again combined for 0 assists while collectively shooting 8-for-42. The bad shooting and poor passing aren't aberrations; the wonder was that this team is tied for first place in the Big 10 (but that's how good they've been defensively).
Connecticut is now dominated by the play of point guard Marcus Williams; he had 14p/11a against Syracuse in the Huskies' 88-80 road win, and was the leading scorer at 15p/5a in their 71-58 road win at Louisville. He may be a little too much a part of everything for a team with so much individual talent, but they are definitely a better team with him at the helm than they were in the preseason. While UConn won twice in the Beastly Big East, Syracuse lost twice in bad fashion. Their home loss to UConn wasn't nearly as close as the score suggests, and their 80-65 road loss at Villanova wasn't much better. The Wildcat guards harrassed gGerry McNamara into a 4pt/6to performance on 1-for-8 shooting. (And things don't get any easier for the Orange with a road trip to smarting Pittsburgh on Monday). With gTaquan Dean still out with an ankle injury, Louisville continued to struggle, especially with its shooting (37%, 6-for-22 on 3s against St. John's; 36%, 2-for-20 on 3s against UConn).
Texas has rolled through the Big 12 so far as easily as Memphis has done in Conference USA. Only thing is, the quality of competition in those two leagues isn't nearly the same. If the Longhorns can keep it going against Oklahoma State (Monday) and at Oklahoma (Saturday) just like they've been doing; then it'll be time to re-evaluate them and begin to forget their preseason meltdowns. Memphis may wind up getting soft against its weak league schedule (as Gonzaga already appears to be doing in WCC play) -- a problem that Big East teams will never have to worry about.
More than basketball will be on everyone's mind when the yearly rivalry game between West Virginia and Marshall takes place on Wednesday in Charleston, WV. (On top of how good they already are objectively, the Mountaineers could wind up being a team on an emotional mission to be a shining light for a community rocked by two mining tragedies inside of a month.)
-- Ron
Fading Reps
Texas seemed to have gotten its act together, blowing away the pretender teams in the Big 12. On the road at Oklahoma, though, the Longhorns were exposed for their inability to come up with any defensive stops when they needed them. The Sooners are improving, thanks to the outside presence of gMichael Neal to complement the inside attack of fTaj Gray and cKevin Bookout and the all-over excellence of tTerrell Everett (25p8a7r against UTx). West Virginia has degenerated into a two-man team, tMike Gansey and cKevin Pittsnogle, and only cPittsnogle(20p6r) came through in their "West Virginia State Title" game with 8-10 Marshall as WVU lost 58-52 while shooting 5-for-29 from three-point range. Washington only has a huge comeback on the road at UCLA two weeks ago standing between it and a losing record in the Pac-10. The Huskies lost 71-69 at California (despite tBrandon Roy's 23p/9a/5r performance) and then led most of the way before losing in overtime at Stanford, 76-67, when tRoy had 25p/0a. N.C. State managed to get blown out at home by the seventh-place team from the Big East, Seton Hall, 83-65, and needed double-overtime to get past Clemson on the road, 94-85. Maryland went on the road at Temple and lost 91-85, further damaging the ACC's reputation out of conference. (Only North Carolina's 86-69 rout of depleted Arizona in the Dean Dome saved face for the league last week.)
The Big Six now must make room for one more. Michigan posted two home wins, 72-67 over Michigan State and 85-76 over Wisconsin, to forge a four-way tie atop the crowded Big 10 standings. Home cooking was just what the doctor ordered for "The Little Team That Could", Iowa, as the Hawkeyes beat Indiana 73-60 and Ohio State 67-62. (Keep in mind that in all of these Big Seven matchups so far, there still has been only one road breakthrough: Michigan State's 62-59(2OT) win at Ohio State.)
gTaquan Dean is back playing for Louisville after his ankle injury, but it still hasn't been enough so far to turn this collection of talent into the viable threat that it should be. On paper, there was every reason to expect that the Cardinals could walk right into the Big East and contend for the title straight away with the Big Boys. After yet another loss to a middle-of-the-pack team -- 65-56 at Rutgers this time, UofL sits in a tie for twelfth place and is in real danger of failing to qualify for the Big East tournament (and a road game at Villanova on Monday night doesn't make things any easier).
gJ.J. Redick had 40p for Duke against Virginia on Saturday; fAdam Morrison had 41p and 42p for Gonzaga against San Francisco and Portland. (It's easy to say that Redick's doing it against better competition, but touting the strength of the ACC these days ain't what it used to be.) gTim Smith had 21p10a10r in East Tennessee State's 110-74 rout of (then first-place) Kennesaw State in Atlantic Sun play -- (ETSU gets to host the A-Sun tournament in its first year in the league). Maryland and Georgia Tech combined to shoot 79 free throws between them (including 41-for-45 shooting by the Terps); Air Force and UNLV were a combined 1-for-3.
Pittsburgh and Connecticut clash on Tuesday in what should be one of the few quality big man matchups: Pitt's 7' cAaron Gray vs UConn's 6-11 cHilton Armstrong (et al.) Boston College is trying to adjust to life in the ACC and gets the biggest dose of reality when Duke comes to town on Wednesday. Charlie Brown tries to kick the football again on Saturday. (I mean, Clemson tries to end its 0-for-51 losing streak in Chapel Hill.) Don't look now, but North Carolina is rounding into a fluid unit (and much the same can be said about Kansas in the Big 12).
-- Ron
Mid-Major Report
Despite everyone's best shot, Duke is still undefeated in the ACC. Miami(Florida) and Virginia had stepped into the void at point guard. The Hurricanes' three-guard offense should be able to follow the mold of Villanova to more success but the Cavaliers probably won't be around in the long run. Up-and-down N.C. State, Boston College and young North Carolina have sputtered their way up where they belong. NCSU shoots itself into and out of games with so much reliance on three-pointers but it can also get some post scoring when it remembers to look for it; BC played Duke tough in front of rabid fans and came back from 18-down before losing 83-81; North Carolina is relying on freshmen in the post and at point guard so some games it works and some games it doesn't. Personnel losses have reduced Maryland to The tNik Caner-Medley Show; the Conversion Point experiment at Wake Forest degenerated into gJustin Gray getting his points at the expense of balanced scoring and team chemistry.
Texas stumbled once on the road at Oklahoma, but is still alone in first place in the Big 12. Thanks to a mad scramble comeback at home for a 59-58 win, young Kansas is now in second place ahead of the Sooners. KU's physical defense keeps it in most every game until its herky-jerky offense can string together a couple of baskets. OU is the better team, though, especially now that it's getting outside shooting from gMichael Neal. Oklahoma State never could get over the hump of being a consistent threat; Texas Tech's chemistry is always a fragile thing with Bob Knight on the sidelines and this time things haven't gelled.
UCLA seems squarely in charge of the Pac-10 now. Surprisingly, second place at the moment is shared by California and Stanford. cLeon Powe has made Cal a potent offense in a similar mold to Indiana and cMarco Killingsworth -- cLP doesn't pass as well as cMK, but at least he can make his free throws. Stanford is 8-3 in conference play but only 12-7 overall (which should tell you something about the quality of the Pac-10, or lack thereof). Arizona's personnel woes have compounded the chemistry problems it already had. Washington seems to have unravelled as well -- they aren't getting the point guard play they need out of freshman gJustin Dentmon or gRyan Appleby, so tBrandon Roy has wound up handling the ball too much at the expense of involving the rest of the team (plus, they never got out of basket-trading mode).
The biggest surprise at the halfway point surely must be the Iowa Hawkeyes sitting alone on top of the rough Big 10 at 7-2. It's no fluke -- they're 4-2 against the "Big Seven" -- but still only two games have gone against the home team so far in those matchups (Michigan State in double-OT at Ohio State, and Illinois 66-51 at Wisconsin this past week). Illinois inexplicably lost at home (for the first time in 33 games) to 11-9 Penn State. Wisconsin followed its loss to the Illini with a road loss at 8-13 Purdue. Indiana is also in a funk -- there's no shame in losing to #1 Connecticut, 88-80, even at home; but more troubling is how the team falls apart when cMarco Killingsworth is on the bench; IU is the best three-point shooting team in the country so even without their center, they should be able to run the multi-guard offense the same way Villanova is doing, but it hasn't seemed to work. Ohio State keeps plugging along with solid play every time out. It remains to be seen whether Michigan can hang in for the long haul.
The Big East is as packed at the top as was expected. 8-0 West Virginia and 7-2 Georgetown owe their status mostly to playing the "B" schedule in the league (but WVU did win at Villanova earlier and GU just beat Pittsburgh 61-58 at home). Connecticut, Villanova and Pittsburgh are the real powers; UConn is getting better every time out; Pitt's cAaron Gray is making a case for being the best center in the nation; 'Nova keeps surviving despite lousy shooting from gRandy Foye and gAllan Ray -- like N.C. State, all those threes can shoot you into a game and out of one just the same; but these guards can drive the lane much better than NCSU when the outside shots aren't falling. Louisville won't contend for the title, but it'll qualify for the conference tournament and may yet be a force in the postseason. Poor Notre Dame keeps losing one close game after another -- (8 losses by a total of 26 points). Marquette and Syracuse are decent teams but all the Ls on their resume may doom them. Cincinnati's overachieving start was done in by injuries.
The return of cRandolph Morris didn't make much difference for Kentucky after all. The Wildcats are still a team that can't get its act together. UK stayed with Florida for a half before the Gators broke open the game, winning 95-80 at home. Still, it's Tennessee and LSU who are 7-1 in the SEC while the Gators are in third overall at 6-2. Alabama has done a fine job of regrouping after the loss of cChuck Davis and is still a factor at 5-3 (tied with UK).
Memphis in revamped Conference USA and George Washington in the Atlantic 10 have cruised undefeated through the first half of league play. UAB, UTEP and Houston need an upset in the conference tournament and an automatic bid to make the NCAAs; second place in C-USA won't cut it anymore. Charlotte is only 13-8 overall but is still good enough for a second-place tie at 6-3 in the A-10; this is another one-bid league this year that usually likes to think of itself as more than a "mid-major". Gonzaga is undefeated in the WCC as expected, but the 'Zags aren't winning in a rout every time out the way you'd like to see them do.
In the actual mid-majors, the MVC has a legitimate claim to being perhaps the No. 6 (or higher) conference in the nation. Several teams are playing well and the conference games are extremely competitive; but it's more a case of the likes of Conference USA and the Atlantic 10 being weaker than they used to be. Northern Iowa and Southern Illinois are fighting off Wichita State and Creighton for the conference race. UNI is doing it mostly without gBen Jacobson leading the way, which is good news; the Panthers shoot well but don't have much presence in the paint. Southern Illinois managed to cough up its own 33-game home win streak to 8-12 Indiana State (which was on an 11-game losing streak before pulling off the shocker, 63-54).
In the WAC, Nevada has finally returned to the top of the standings along with Utah State and Louisiana Tech; the Wolf Pack are getting a little more help on the perimeter for cNick Fazekas but still not enough to dominant a league of so-so teams. The MAC is its usual competitive self: lots of teams competing well (Kent State, Akron, Miami(Ohio) and Ohio University), but none of them made much of a splash out of conference in the preseason. San Diego State is the surprise leader in the Mountain West, ahead of Air Force and UNLV. The Colonial continues to be a mad scramble -- this week it's George Mason on top. Western Kentucky only has South Alabama to worry about in the weak Sun Belt.
Beyond those leagues, only individual teams appear to even be capable of making any noise in the postseason. Bucknell is quietly still undefeated in the Patriot League (but that's not really saying much). Iona has its hands full with Manhattan (but gSteve Burtt is scoring points in bunches every night). Winthrop has lost the lead in the Big South to Birmingham Southern. Wisconsin-Milwaukee has fallen back to the pack in the Horizon.
Miami(Florida) has two big home games this week, against N.C. State (Wednesday) and North Carolina (Sunday), which could make or break its season. West Virginia has two tough games on the road, at Pittsburgh (Thursday) and at Georgetown (Sunday). Ohio State visits Michigan (Thursday) and hosts Illinois (Sunday). On paper, North Carolina shouldn't trouble Duke (Tuesday) -- but that game never goes according form on paper. LSU visits Florida (Saturday) in another SEC showdown; (Tennessee at Kentucky on Tuesday is just the undercard). Gonzaga shouldn't have trouble with visiting Stanford (Saturday), but a home loss would ruin their chances for a high seed come tournament time.
-- Ron
Firming Up
There has been less and less volatility with the Top 25 rankings recently -- that's partly a natural occurrence during this time of the season -- most teams have gotten their acts together at this point, but a handful seem to be unraveling from what was much better form earlier on. Mike Davis seemingly overcoached Indiana into a descent they haven't been able to turn around. The Big Seven matchups were bound to knock the wind out of someone; IU and Wisconsin were it two weeks ago but the Badgers were able to regroup. Michigan, Michigan State and Illinois seem to have blown a tire this past week. Iowa is still on top, but Ohio State may be the sturdiest of them all at this point; the Buckeyes haven't turned in a bad performance all season -- and, remember, this is a team that had no postseason last year due to probation so they are very hungry and very motivated to squeeze everything they can out of every opportunity.
Villanova beat St. Joseph's to take the Big Five title for this year in another close game that was rescued by the individual talent of its marvelous backcourt. This time, with gMike Nardi out due to illness, it was gKyle Lowry who drove the lane on the way to 25p6a5r; VU trailed 22-34 with 10 minutes left, but a 21-3 run turned the game around. Pittsburgh handed West Virginia its first conference loss, 57-53, as Pitt's cAaron Gray had 16p8r and WVU's cKevin Pittsnogle was held scoreless. Connecticut, Villanova and West Virginia are now in a three-way tie atop the Big East at 9-1 with Pittsburgh and Georgetown tied for fourth at 8-3.
LSU beat Tennessee, Tennessee beat Florida, and now Florida has beaten LSU. They're the three best teams in the SEC but somehow the Gators threw in two losses to South Carolina while LSU lost at resilient Alabama. The Vols, like Ohio State, consistently deliver quality performances, even when they lose. That mentality alone can save you from an early round upset in the NCAAs.
Miami(Florida) had a chance to become a real player in the ACC, but they lost two big home games: 86-77(2OT) to N.C. State and 80-70 to North Carolina; two tough road games this week, at Boston College (Thursday) and at Duke (Sunday) could be all she wrote. Meanwhile, that second Greensboro Pod slot is still very much up in the air betweeen North Carolina and N.C. State; NCSU slipped at Georgia Tech, 71-68, and keeps falling back to the rest of the pack in the standings. Not good.
It was a tough week for coaches: Eddie Sutton (Oklahoma State) was in a car accident; Mike Davis (Indiana) missed a game with the flu; and Quin Snyder (Missouri) finally resigned and opened up that high-profile job for someone who can do more with it than he could.
Connecticut has its toughest road test of the season with games at Villanova (Monday) and at West Virginia (Saturday) -- teams that don't need to go inside to do their damage. (Remember, it was N.C. State's spread offense that did in the Huskies in last year's NCAA tournament.) This week alone won't ensure a #1 seed in the tournament, but a bad week could hurt their chances. Florida has already given away too much by being swept by South Carolina; road games at Vanderbilt (Wednesday) and Arkansas (Saturday) could send their #2-seed dreams out the window. Michigan State is on the hot seat in the Big Seven with games at Iowa (Tuesday) and at home against Michigan (Saturday). Marquette and Syracuse are treading water in the Big East -- so far so good, but they can't avoid any slip-ups -- MU hosts Georgetown (Thursday) and Pittsburgh (Saturday) while SU welcomes Cincinnati (Wednesday) and Louisville (Saturday). Nevada and Louisiana Tech have a showdown for first place in the WAC on Monday night. As badly as Princeton has played this year -- (they're 7-12) -- Tuesday night's game at Penn is actually for first place in the Ivy League. Yikes.
BRACKET BUSTER must seem like a good idea on paper -- nearly 100 teams have signed on to be paired up with who-knows-who this weekend. You have to say yes before you really know how the season will go for you; by the time it comes around in February, it's a good idea for some teams and a bad idea for others. It's a lose-lose situation for the Missouri Valley teams. With the decline of Conference USA and the Atlantic 10, the MVC has moved up to #6 in the conference ratings. Four MVC teams (Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Creighton and Wichita State) are in the running for an NCAA bid -- they've already made their rep individually and collectively; participating in BRACKET BUSTER will only allow lesser-rated teams to glean some respect with one of their scalps. On the other hand, the MAC and Colonial have been highly competitive within conference play but their teams haven't been able to make much of a mark outside their leagues; an at-large bid isn't likely in any case but padding their resumes can only help.
-- Ron
Backslidin'
Players of the Year 1A and 1B just keep doing special things. (1A)gJ.J. Redick had 35p against Wake Forest on Monday (and set the NCAA career record for most three-pointers made -- don't forget that he's already the career leader in free-throw percentage) and then had 30p more on Sunday against Miami(Florida) (and became Duke's all-time leading scorer). While Redick has had a Hall of Fame collegiate career, it's still not clear he's having the better season. (1B)fAdam Morrison had 33p on Monday against Portland and followed that up with 44p (including 37p in the second half) on Saturday against Loyola Marymount. Forget the argument that Redick is doing it against "better competition". The ACC is down this year, and we've already seen Morrison do just as well against the likes of UConn, Memphis, Michigan State, Washington, Stanford, Maryland, et al.
As the second half of the regular season has turned the corner -- (in fact, this week coming up is the last week of the regular season in the lesser conferences) -- teams with comfortable margins fell back to the pack. Texas had been cruising through the Big 12, but losses at Oklahoma and now Oklahoma State (in a rout, 81-60) have left them tied for first place with young Kansas -- and the Jayhawks just beat OSU 64-49 in Stillwater only last Monday. UTx is great at racing past less talented teams, but if you can force them into a game where they have to win it with defense, they can be in trouble. OSU rode the emotions of playing without their head coach, Eddie Sutton, who has taken a medical leave of absence for the rest of the season after his car accident was revealed to be alcohol-related. (Any wins they get under interim coach, Sean Sutton, count towards Eddie's career total and it's still possible to get him to 800 career wins before the end of the season.)
Tennessee (at reborn Alabama) and Florida (at pesky Arkansas) fell on the road and LSU is now the co-leader (with UTn) of the SEC. Iowa fell at Minnesota and is now tied in the loss column with Illinois, Ohio State and Wisconsin (at four each). UCLA continues to have injury problems and the Bruins lost 71-68 at USC, falling back into a tie for first place with California. Northern Iowa (at Indiana State) and Southern Illinois (at Bradley) fell off the pace in the MVC, allowing Wichita State to take sole possession of first place. West Virginia fell twice (71-64 at Seton Hall and 81-75 against Connecticut) as both opponents were able to exploit the Mountaineers in the paint. Marquette won two big home games (57-51 over Georgetown and 84-82 over Pittsburgh) as the Golden Eagles have been able to stabilize their game amidst the rough Big East schedule (something Louisville has never been able to do).
ESPN's BRACKET BUSTER was a disaster for the MVC. The top 5 teams (Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Creighton, Southern Illinois and Missouri State) all were showcased with TV games -- four of them at home -- and only two were able to win: Missouri State (on the road against Wisconsin-Milwaukee playing without fAdrian Tigert) and Northern Iowa (in double-overtime against Bucknell in a game the Bison won twice and gave away three times before the Panthers were able to accept). Bucknell showcased exceptional halfcourt D, but terribly inept O (especially for a team that supposedly has 50+ sets in its playbook). The MVC, supposedly the No. 6 conference in the country, only went 5-5 overall, far worse than the Colonial (6-2), WAC (6-3), and Big West (5-3), who were the clear winners, while the OVC (5-6), MAC (5-7), Horizon (4-5) and Metro Atlantic (3-6) all showed poorly. Out of 49 games, the home team won 36 times. Only George Mason (at the buzzer at Wichita State), Louisiana Tech (in an endplay at Southern Illinois), New Mexico State (in overtime at Pacific), Long Beach State (comfortably at Manhattan) and Missouri State (as mentioned above) were able to beat winning teams on the road. The rest was a lot of sound and fury signifying not much.
N.C. State can step forward (to Sweet 16 Land) or backward (to Bitter Upset World) this week with two home wins over North Carolina (Wednesday) and Boston College (Saturday); a 2-0 week will allow them to avoid Duke until the finals of the ACC tournament and go along way toward securing that coveted second Pod slot in Greensboro. Even a 2-0 week for Villanova (at Cincinnati, Thursday, and at Connecticut, Sunday) probably won't guarantee a #1-seed just yet -- there's still a lot to be determined in the monumental Big East tournament. Texas could blow a #1-seed if it fails to beat Kansas on Saturday and loses control of the Big 12 race. Florida can't afford to lose to Tennessee a second time (Wednesday) if it has any hopes of getting a #2 seed in the NCAAs. Winning at Illinois (Saturday) is asking a lot of Iowa, so the Hawkeyes' stay atop the Big 10 standings may be over after this week.
-- Ron
"Nip It ... In The Bud!"
Illinois did indeed knock Iowa out of first place in the Big 10 with a not-that-close 71-59 home win, but the Illini had stumbled at Michigan, 72-64, earlier in the week while fellow contender Wisconsin was tripped up, 62-51, at pesky Northwestern. Alone at the top (and probably there to stay) are the Ohio State Buckeyes, who never seem to turn in a bad performance even in defeat. OSU won 79-68 at Michigan State and 64-54 against Michigan to take over first place with a 10-4 record. A trip to Northwestern and a home game with Purdue are all that stand in the way of claiming the conference title. Remember who this team is: these are the guys who were on probation last year and couldn't go to the postseason, so their NCAA tournament became winning the game to halt Illinois' undefeated season last year. Don't forget that only the year before that, OSU coach Thad Matta guided Xavier through to the Elite Eight before losing to Duke in a tight game. This guy can coach and these guys can play: cTerence Dials is one of the few true low-post players around and it's one of the best three-point shooting teams around as well. They don't quite have that inside-out game working to the level that Indiana and cMarco Killingsworth did when they were at their best, but this is a better defensive team than IU ever was and they don't beat themselves (and there's a comfy pod in Dayton just waiting to usher them through to the Sweet 16 as well).
Speaking of pods, North Carolina's convincing 95-71 rout of N.C. State (in Raleigh) is more than enough to garner them the invitation to the second pod slot in Greensboro after Duke. The Tar Heels are deep, relentless and everything that was awkward and choppy early in the season seems smooth and well tuned now. This is one of Roy Williams' finest coaching performances ... and he didn't do such a bad job last year. UNC will be a major factor in the NCAAs. NCSU will have to do it the hard way, on the road in non-ACC environments. The Wolfpack has lots going for it but the lack of a 'tweener who can make that hard drive to the basket (that Julius Hodge provided last year) is hurting them in tight games (like their 72-74(2OT) loss at home to Boston College). BC was able to exploit the paint (like UNC and Seton Hall did before them).
Preseason darling Florida continues to lose close games down the stretch. The Gators lost another nail-biter to Tennessee (this time at home), 76-72. UF's balanced attack is great when things are rolling, but in tight games, they don't have one player who can put the ball on the floor and get the big score. pTaurean Green is capable of it, and so is tCorey Brewer, but no one has consistently stepped up in several tight losses (including an 82-77 loss on the road at Alabama later on in the week). Florida is in danger of losing its first-round bye in the upcoming SEC tournament to regrouping Kentucky. Meanwhile, Arkansas is rounding into form, with a 65-63 home win over Alabama and a 73-69 win at Tennessee. LSU remains the top overall seed in the conference with a 12-2 record, as the Tigers survived 71-67 at home against UK.
gJ.J. Redick should be through with his career-record binge now -- his 11 points against Temple made him the all-time leading scorer in the ACC. That's quite an astounding accomplishment (but if you were to think of the all-time greatest players in ACC history, I don't think Redick would be very high up on the list. That three-pointer makes his impact on the scoreboard much larger than his visceral impact on the game seems to be). Just when the season is ending and it's time to gear up for the postseason, George Washington's cPops Mensah-Bonsu injured his knee. He hopes to be back for the Atlantic 10 tournament next week or the NCAA tournament, for sure; but this is a team that will probably be overseeded due to its gaudy won-loss record (24-1) and very vulnerable to upset if its best player isn't available at full strength. (Remember, GW's best win all year is a split-crowd victory over Maryland in the BB&T CLASSIC.)
Half (15) of the conference tournaments get under way this week and the other half (15) start up next week. For the most part, it's just the lesser conferences with no expectations beyond their automatic bids with two major exceptions: the MVC and the Colonial. Both leagues have up to six teams that are fully capable of winning the tournament and pulling off an upset in the NCAA. Northern Iowa has been the poster team for the MVC all year, briefly appearing in the national Top 25, but the Panthers are the No. 6 seed after finishing 11-7 (and they haven't slumped). Remember that Drexel team that made it to New York in the NIT SEASON TIP-OFF and gave Duke a tough game? Dick Vitale went on and on about how there was no way a team that good could be picked to finish seventh in a lowly league like the Colonial. Well, they indeed finished in a tie for seventh at 8-10 and are the No. 8 seed in the conference tourney. Teams that have their act together are way more dangerous come tourney time than name-brand stars who are collapsing from their own expectations. Yes, George Mason; no Indiana.
George Mason and UNC-Wilmington finished in a tie for the top spot in the Colonial at 15-3. Wichita State emerged as the regular season champ in the MVC with a 14-4 record. Bucknell became the first team to ever finish undefeated in the Patriot League. Iona lost twice, including 78-74 at Manhattan, to lose the Metro Atlantic title to the Jaspers. The Gaels have a talented backcourt (gSteve Burtt and gRicky Soliver) but by failing to win the regular season, they're now very much at risk of having no postseason at all. One of the new changes the NCAA has put in after buying out the NIT is this one: Any team that wins its conference regular season title will get an automatic bid to the NIT if that team fails to win its conference tournament and doesn't receive an at-large bid into the NCAA tournament. It's great that the regular season title means something real again. (Think Dean Smith had a hand in that one?) [Yikes. That means that the only team from the state of Georgia that will be in the postseason is ... Georgia Southern! The Eagles won the overall Southern Conference title past the likes of higher-profile Davidson.]
One of the big worries about the lesser conference tournaments is that a team that's sure to get an at-large bid that comes from a one-bid conference will screw up and lose in its tournament. The most notable case is Gonzaga, which has almost always come through, and this year even hosts the WCC tourney. The 'Zags have gone undefeated in WCC play, but they dont' always win as easily as you'd want them to do. The new NIT rule is actually going to make it easier for the NCAA to say no to teams that "should have won their way in" but didn't because they will still get an automatic bid to the postseason. The leagues that usually have a beef are the MVC, Horizon and the MAC. The MVC will get multiple bids for sure; Horizon champ Wisconsin-Milwaukee wouldn't be missed if they don't make the NCAA; neither would Kent State from the MAC. The leagues likely to get the shaft are the Mountain West and the Atlantic 10, which didn't have good years and whose teams didn't participate in BRACKET BUSTER either. When next week comes around, let's hope that Memphis, Gonzaga and George Washington do their duty and don't let up and allow any undeserving teams into the Big Dance.
-- Ron
Unfinished Business
Ohio State did win twice to claim the Big 10 regular season title. The Buckeyes have a shot at a #1 seed in the NCAAs if they can also win the Big 10 tournament, but that's a big "if". OSU had no bad losses in league play, but it was only 5-4 among the "Big Seven". Iowa was 7-3 against the toughest teams, but lost on the road at Minnesota and Northwestern. George Washington preserved its undefeated league season as fCarl Elliott did his best Lorenzo Charles impersonation on a putback at the buzzer in overtime to beat Charlotte, 86-85(OT). The Colonials will have to play at least the Atlantic-10 tournament without fPops Mensah-Bonsu (who had his knee scoped). GW probably can only get a #2 seed in the NCAAs at best (but if they're healthy, their style of play is geared towards NCAA success). Gonzaga squeaked its way to the WCC title with an overtime win in the semifinals over 18-12 San Diego and a one-point win in the final over 12-17 Loyola Marymount (all this with league coaches complaining what an unfair advantage the Bulldogs had by host the conference tourney). A Salt Lake City pod placement may not be enough to ensure a spot in the Sweet 16 for this overrated bunch. (Their "big" out-of-conference wins -- Michigan State, Maryland, Stanford and Oklahoma State -- don't seem so impressive at season's end.)
UCLA held on to win the Pac-10 title (but Washington may be playing the better ball at this point). LSU won the SEC overall title as Tennessee couldn't keep pace, falling at home to Kentucky; Florida showed some killer instinct in its last couple of games as cJoakim Noah scored 37 points against Georgia (in front of dad, Yannick) and the team ran away from Kentucky on the road, winning 79-64.
The two big mid-major conference tournaments didn't disappoint. Hard fought early round games yielded to impressive champions who won convincingly. Southern Illinois went to overtime in the semifinals, winning 55-46(OT) over rival Northern Iowa and then took the MVC crown with a solid 59-46 win in the final over Bradley (which had upset top-seeded Wichita State in the semis). All four semifinalists could do damage in the NCAAs if they get an at-large bid. (Gonzaga's win in the WCC helps keep that possibility alive.) UNC-Wilmington followed up its share of the regular season crown with an impressive 78-67 win over Hofstra in the Colonial final. UNCW displayed sound defense and a crisp passing-and-cutting offense that will give talented-but-lazy players fits. Hofstra upset second-seeded George Mason in the semifinal, 58-49, and now GMU is in a bit of trouble regarding a bid. gTony Skinn pulled the same sucker-punch-to-the-groin play on Hofstra's gLoren Stokes that we saw last year Wake Forest's pChris Paul pull on N.C. State's tJulius Hodge. Skinn has been suspended by the school for its next game (NCAA or NIT) and the Selection Committee might just pass on them if it thinks they won't be tournament-worthy without him.
Murray State (OVC), Iona (MAAC), Winthrop (Big South), Davidson (Southern) and Belmont (Atlantic Sun) all came through as they should have in winning their conference tournaments; each of those teams was the most talented one in its league (so they do each have a decent shot at pulling off a first-round upset if they get paired with a major conference team on the downswing).
Among the major conferences, Memphis, George Washington and Nevada will get bids even if they don't win their tournaments but those leagues (C-USA, A-10 and WAC) may not get more than two bids overall (so the MVC and Colonial teams are sweating those results -- remember that the WAC went 6-3 in BRACKET BUSTER so those teams will get a good look from the Committee). Arizona must play the Pac-10 tournament without fHassan Adams (who was arrested for DUI over the weekend), so UCLA has a pretty easy path to the final. The home-state crowd in Dallas should help Texas take the Big 12 crown and secure the fourth #1 seed in the NCAA tournament (after UConn, 'Nova and Duke). gJ.J. Redick has (temporarily) lost the lead in career three-pointers to St. Peter's gKeydren Clark, but he should get it back by the end of the ACC tournament. The SEC, Big 10 and Big East don't necessarily have a sure-thing favorite (but it says here: go with Florida, Illinois and Connecticut). What will Louisville and Notre Dame do with the coveted bids they earned as the final two seeds in the Big East tourney?
-- Ron
"Ger-ry! Ger-ry!"
By far the biggest story from the conference tournaments was the folk hero saga of pGerry McNamara and Syracuse in the Big East. Only one week earlier, SU lost by 39 points to a DePaul team that didn't even make the NIT. Despite playing in the toughest conference in the country, the Orange were definitely on the outside looking in as far as receiving an at-large bid to the NCAAs. Worse, they were seeded to face another bubble team in the first round, Cincinnati (in what indeed turned out to be a knock-out game for the Bearcats). On top of that, the local Syracuse paper ran an article quoting some Big East assistant coach saying that McNamara was an overrated player (I guess, because the team his senior had been less successful than his previous three years). It's seems odd from the outside looking in, though. He's clearly one of the all-time greats at Syracuse (a national championship, another Sweet 16, a Big East regular season and tournament title as well). In my book, if you've made one Final Four in your college career, that's the stamp of approval for a player. You've got to have another FF-calibre teammate in order to win a national championship and that's out of your control, but one-man teams can make the Final Four if the player is great enough. I never had any doubts about his place before last week, ... but now ... So Syracuse comes in on such a downswing, there's no way to expect anything out of them. They do have the support of the New York crowd (and McNamara has a following like you wouldn't believe: 65 busloads of people from his hometown of Scranton PA came to his last home game at the Carrier Dome where they set another NCAA attendance record for an on-campus game). Cincinnati played great -- tJames White had a career-high 32p -- and led 73-71 in the closing seconds. G-Mac to the rescue: he steps in between two defenders and hits a running three-pointer to win it, 74-73. Great! Thrilling! In the postgame press conference, coach Jim Boeheim addresses the newspaper article and defends his player with a profanity-laced speech that was amazing. You hear coaches curse all the time and you're embarrassed for their boorishness. This was different. This was coming to the defense of a player he clearly loves beyond most. "We wouldn't have won 10 fucking games this year without him. Not 10. This is biggest piece of bullshit I've heard in 30 years." McNamara is sitting right next to him, hanging his head, listening to his coach sing his praises. Can you imagine somebody cursing out the world on TV in your behalf? What must that feel like? Great win. Great performance under pressure. But is it enough by itself to get them into the NCAAs? They'll still at least have to put on a good showing against top-ranked Connecticut the next night. No problem. The 'Cuse is still on a roll and bolts out to a 10-0 lead on UConn. But McNamara has to take himself in and out of the game to rest and the Huskies catch up to 10-9 after 13 minutes. It's a tight game but SU leads most of the way until the very end when UConn hits some big shots and creeps ahead by three in the closing seconds. G-Mac to the rescue: he pulls up from beyond NBA range and drills another three-pointer to send the game into overtime, and then makes 3-for-4 free throws to pull out an 86-84(OT) win over the #1 team in the country. Unreal. They're in the tournament for sure now. The rest is gravy. But if they're playing well enough to beat #1, why stop now? Semifinals against a very good, athletic Georgetown team. McNamara sits out a little more at the start of this one and you can clearly see what Boeheim meant about how bad a team this really is when he's not on the floor. The magic is gone, Georgetown leads 36-21 at the half. The dream is over. Boeheim tells the team (jokingly) at halftime that he just heard from the NCAA committee that they're still not in the tournament unless they come back and win. The team doesn't really believe him, but G-Mac to the rescue: he scores 15 points in the second half, a late three and gives Syracuse its only lead of the game at the end with a nifty assist to gEric Devendorf on a fast break. Are you starting to see a pattern? In the title game against Pittsburgh (which was riding high coming off its own 68-54 win over #2 Villanova), the 'Cuse was a reborn team and bolted out to a 15-point lead early on. Pitt eventually fought all the way back and tied things up late, but the ball (and the calls) bounced the Orange way at the end and an ordinary (14p6a) performance from G-Mac was enough to secure the Big East crown, 65-61. "Tournament MVP" doesn't do justice to what McNamara accomplished. Syracuse beat three ranked teams (including #1) and a tournament-worthy fourth team in four days. That's the best week anyone has had all season by a long shot, all thanks to the "overrated" kid.
A lot of the major conference tournament games weren't the highest quality. Playing three (and four) consecutive days can either put you in a real groove, or wear you down so you can't hit the side of a barn with your jump shot. NBA teams don't play three days in a row, let alone four. In the Big 10, Michigan gave up its membership in "The Big Seven" with a tailspin the second half of conference play; the Wolverines wound up as 7th seed, lost to 10th-seeded Minnesota, 55-59, in the first round (and said yes to an NIT bid). Michigan State wound up 6th, but handled [11]Purdue, 70-58, and [3]Illinois, 61-56, and led early on by 11 against [2]Iowa before falling 48-53 (as jumper after jumper hit the front of the rim in their third game in three days). The defense was brutal throughout this tournament: only one winning team hit 70 and only one losing team hit 60 in all ten games. Support from the Indianapolis crowd helped [5]Indiana hold off [4]Wisconsin, 61-56, and the Hoosiers were a 5-foot jumper away from beating [1]Ohio State, but fell 52-51 at the buzzer in the semis. Senior-laden [2]Iowa kept turning deficits into leads as they came back on [10]Minnesota, 67-57, [6]Michigan State, 53-48, and [1]Ohio State, 67-60, in the final. This team knows how to play, competes extremely well even when they're down, is solid defensively in the halfcourt and fits well together on offense. They just don't have flashy athletes that garner attention.
Florida and LSU put on a fantastic game in the SEC semifinal. It was tight for most of it until some three-pointers by gTaurean Green opened up a lead that the Tigers couldn't match as the Gators won going away, 81-65. South Carolina upset Tennessee, 79-71, in the quarterfinals and then beat Kentucky, 65-61, in the semifinal before falling to Florida in the final, 47-49, as cJoakim Noah scored a late putback and then made a game-saving block at the buzzer. Florida's game is firing on all cylinders: they have great balance, good depth, and are very athletic at all spots on the floor.
It took a while, but Boston College finally began to tear through the ACC like they were expected to. The Eagles dismantled Maryland, 80-66 in the quarterfinals, stared down North Carolina, 85-82, in the semifinals, and went to the wire with Duke for the second time, losing 76-78 in the final in a game where BC had seemingly taken control in the closing minutes. J.J. to the rescue: Redick hit 3 three-pointers down the stretch to rescue victory from defeat for the Blue Devils. Duke comes into the NCAA tournament playing its best ball of the season, thanks to much improved contributions of fJosh McRoberts, bDeMarcus Nelson and pGreg Paulus.
Kansas didn't run and hide the second time around when it faced Texas in the final of the Big 12. The Jayhawks are extremely physical -- and Texas is not. UT's cLaMarcus Aldridge spent most of the game in foul trouble and wound up with 5p5r. UCLA destroyed its competition in front of an L.A. crowd, beating undermanned [4]Arizona, 71-59, and routing [3]California, 71-52. (Their reward is a #2-seed and a nice draw in the NCAAs.) Pac-10 Tournament MVP went to Cal's cLeon Powe (22p20r in one game, 41p in another). About the only criticism you can level against Memphis is that they're so talented they rarely have to make The Big Stop or score on The Big Possession. Someone in the NCAA tournament will make them have to face those situations, but no one in the Conference USA tournament was able to. The Tigers just kept running, shooting and rebounding with abandon and nothing stood in their way. (They're seeded #1, but after the first round, everyone they meet will be better than anyone they've played since the preseason.)
The top four seeds for the NCAA tournament (Duke, Connecticut, Villanova, Memphis) are hard to argue with. A #2-seed for Tennessee (and the coveted Greensboro pod slot to boot) was a surprise. They didn't win their conference regular season and they lost in the first round of the SEC tourney. They have that big road win at Texas (but North Carolina's road win at Duke is at least as good). Despite their gaudy 27-3 record, I still think a #3-seed is too high for Gonzaga. If Pittsburgh is the 20th-best team out there, somebody's counting wrong. Four bids to the MVC is probably too many -- a #7-seed for Wichita State is out of whack -- but two for the Colonial is probably right. How Air Force was even in the discussion, I don't know -- (no regular season title or even tournament final from the weak Mountain West). I'd have taken Cincinnati well ahead of them. A #5-seed for Syracuse seems crazy high for the way they've played most of the season (but it's crazy low for the way they played in four games over the weekend).
The NIT has now explicitedly seeded its draw -- Louisville, Cincinnati, Michigan and Maryland are the top seeds. Eight teams receive first round byes (the top four, plus St. Joseph's, Creighton, Florida State and Missouri State), sixteen teams play first-round (32s) matches, and another sixteen teams must play opening round (64s) matches for the right to meet the eight bye teams. Hopefully, seeding the draw is better than arranging it according to which teams can bring in those most gate receipts.
Player alerts: despite a scary moment in the Big East semifinal against Pittsburgh (in which he was screaming, "I can't see"), Villanova's gAllan Ray has been cleared to play without even needing goggles for the NCAA tournament. Arizona's fHassan Adams' suspension for a DUI arrest was only for the Pac-10 tournament, so expect him to play in the NCAAs. George Washington's fPops Mensah-Bonsu appears to still be questionable after his knee was scoped a couple of weeks back.
Whose career would you rather have: J.J. Redick's or Gerry McNamara's? One guy is as good a shooter as we've seen in college; when he's on, they win, but his greatness is all about him. The other guy is a player -- he needs teammates to bring out the best he has to offer; when he's on, you're there with him, he's at his best when you're at your best. Who would you rather play with? No wonder so many people love that guy.
-- Ron
[P.S. For those of you in the Hoops Contest, the entry form is online and ready to go.]
The Real NCAA Tournament ...
The other major suspect seeding issue involved George Washington's receiving a #8 seed and having to play essentially two "road" games agaist UNC-Wilmington and then Duke. UNCW had GW down by 18 midway through the second half, but the Colonials went on a 19-0 run to get back into the game, survived the endplay and eeked out an 88-85(OT) win. Against Duke in Round 2, they trailed from the start and just didn't have enough discipline to come back in that environment against that team. Might George Washington have deserved the #5 seed given to Syracuse, instead? Probably so. pGerry McNamara and the Orange had nothing left to give after their terrific run to the Big East title. SU fell 66-58 in the first round to Texas A&M as G-Mac only had two points (on 0-for-6 shooting), an ignominious end to his marvelous collegiate career.
In the "BCS Invitational" part of the draw, Florida and Duke cruised comfortably to two wins in front of supportive crowds. Texas stayed ahead of Penn in the first round, 60-52, and flowed freely against the finesse style of N.C. State, 75-54. UCLA had no trouble with Belmont, but a supportive crowd certainly helped them escape past Alabama in Round 2, 62-59. Villanova put down Monmouth, 58-45, but had all it could handle from Arizona, managing to keep a slim lead in an 82-78 thriller. On neutral courts, might Texas, UCLA and Villanova still be around for the Regionals? All credit goes to the Georgetown Hoyas, who pulled off the most impressive victory of the tournament so far, winning going away 70-52 on the "road" in Dayton against Ohio State. GU's size give OSU problems as they led the entire way behind cRoy Hibbert(20p14r), tJeff Green(19p6a8r) and bAshanti Cook(17p5a5r); cTerence Dials had 19 points but was no factor on the boards.
In the real NCAA tournament (the pods played on truly neutral sites), the MVC and Colonial proved they really were the equal of the major conferences. Bradley posted two astounding wins, 77-73 over highly regarded Kansas in Round 1, and 72-66 over equally respected Pittsburgh in Round 2. The Braves' cPatrick O'Bryant(28p7r) dominated Pitt's cAaron Gray, who languished with foul trouble. Wichita State just plain outplayed Seton Hall and Tennessee. George Mason surged past Michigan State in the second half (even playing without gTony Skinn) as the neutral crowd sided with the underdog; then, after absorbing a 16-2 start by UNC, clawed its way back to take the lead early in the second half and then won the endplay. In the real tournament, Iowa threw away a big lead as the crowd helped underdog Northwestern get back into the game as gJermaine Wallace hit a rainbow three-pointer at the buzzer to pull off the biggest upset of the first round, 64-63.
After going 0-3 on Thursday, the Big East did eventually show its might by placing four teams in the Sweet 16: Connecticut, Villanova, West Virginia and Georgetown. Aesthestics can be deceiving. During the regular season, the Big 10 had one of the best, most compelling campaigns in many years with six or seven teams playing high-quality ball, taking turns knocking each other off with impressive wins in front of home crowds. By contrast, the games in the Pac-10 were sloppy free-for-alls where basket-trading trumped clampdown defense in many a game -- teams blew leads at home and gave up furious comebacks left and right. Guess which league (and style) proved more successful in the tournament? You got it. In the mad scramble that NCAA tournament games can be, station-to-station basketball has a hard time winning out. Indiana barely escaped in a track meet against San Diego State, but couldn't keep pace with the ultimate basket-traders, Gonzaga, losing 80-90. Illinois couldn't keep Washington down, falling 64-67. The Big 10 posted no one into the Sweet 16, went 3-6 overall and featured the only team that failed to win its BCS Invitational pod. Meanwhile, the Pac-10 has two teams still alive (UCLA and Washington) and its other two entries, Arizona and California, went down to the wire in defeat.
Thanks to first-rate scheduling in the preseason, we have some intriguing rematches on the horizon this week. Texas and West Virginia played a 76-75 game in the GUARDIANS CLASSIC that ended on a non-foul call as tMike Gansey drove to the basket against cLaMarcus Aldridge. UTx is playing even better now, though (and N.C. State is the perfect warmup for playing WVU). Should it prevail, Texas will likely get a chance to redeem itself from its embarrassing 97-66 loss to Duke back in December. The result will certainly be closer (but I'm not sure the outcome will be different). Way back in November, LSU won at West Virginia, 71-68(OT). If Memphis can get past worry-free Bradley, it will get a rematch of its own one way or the other. The Tigers beat UCLA 88-80 in the NIT SEASON TIP-OFF and also beat Gonzaga 83-72 later in December. They didn't need a home crowd to roll past two opponents (including solid Bucknell, 72-56), and basket-trading ball is right up their alley. (I didn't pick it that way in my bracket, but now I'm more impressed with Memphis than UCLA.) More basket-trading will be on tap when Connecticut races with Washington -- spectacular plays will abound on both sides, but UW has no one to match UConn's pMarcus Williams. Either the MVC or the Colonial will have a team in the Elite Eight. Yikes! Georgetown's height may be enough to stop Florida from pushing the tempo it wants. Villanova and Boston College will wage another classic Big East showdown ... I mean, they'll fight out an ACC-Big East grudge match!
Not much of note happened in the NIT. gQuincy Douby kept shooting until the end, posting two more 30+pt games before Rutgers bowed out at St. Joseph's, 62-71. Maryland managed to lose at home to MAAC titlist Manhattan, 84-87. The MVC (Missouri State, Creighton) and Colonial (Hofstra, Old Dominion) have acquitted themselves well in that draw as well.
It's a watershed moment for Gonzaga to play UCLA with so much on the line. Most all of the major players are still around for the second weekend. That should make for some high-quality stuff.
-- Ron
Redefining The Conversation
First things first: no one is in this Final Four doesn't belong there. These are four very solid ballclubs. Florida has a great combination of athletic talent and skill in the frontcourt and in the backcourt. cJoakim Noah(15p10r5b vs Georgetown; 21p15r5 13/15ft vs Villanova) has been a standout, but he's just the tip of the iceberg for the Gators. Pick your poison between fGlen "Big Baby" Davis(14p5r vs Duke; 26p9r vs Texas) and cTyrus Thomas(9p13r5b vs Duke; 21p13r3b vs Texas) as to which frontcourt player provides the most difficult matchup against the Tigers. gAaron Afflalo(15p vs Gonzaga; 15p vs Memphis) and the Bruins didn't really play their best ball in Oakland, yet here they are in Indianapolis. (That probably recommends them more than anyone else.) And then there's that team with five players averaging double-figures (with two low-post scoring threats) that's as solid a squad as anyone out there: the Patriots of George Mason University.
That was no fluke when George Mason delivered its stirring 86-84(OT) upset of Connecticut. The Patriots had already toppled Michigan State in the first round (with star guard gTony Skinn sitting out a suspension), outlasted North Carolina in the second round, and won their BRACKET BUSTER rematch with MVC conference champ Wichita State even easier the second time around. GMU is balanced, for sure, but the quality of basketball they play is excellent. Their execution in overtime against UConn was outstanding. Playing in front of a supportive "home" crowd in Washington DC was a help, but in no way was it the determining factor in their big win. (They had already come through the Dayton Pod against two national powers.) This year's Connecticut team always seemed to lack some initiative. It only responded to being challenged moreso than it threw down the gauntlet from the start. In its first Big East game, it lost badly at Marquette; in its first showdown at Villanova, it lost; in its first Big East tournament game, it lost to inspired Syracuse; in its first NCAA tournament game, it trailed Albany by 12 points in the second half before rallying; it didn't put away Kentucky in Round 2; and it needed a desperation three-pointer just to get to overtime against Washington. These Huskies just didn't dominate from the opening tap against "lesser" opponents the way you would have expected from a #1-seed.
It was always a question whether you could really make the Final Four just with star guards and only bit players up front. In '04, St. Joseph's great backcourt tandem nearly pulled it off, but lost on a game-winning jumpshot in the Regional Final. This year, Villanova, with its four-guard lineup (which had dwindled to three in recent weeks with the slump of gMike Nardi), barely escaped past mighty Boston College in the Regional semifinal, 60-59(OT). The Wildcats didn't take their first lead until two minutes were left in regulation as coach Jay Wright masterfully swapped his forewards for defense and guards for offense all game long. By the end of things, they had degenerated to a one-guard attack of bRandy Foye(29p5r3a vs BC; 25p8r vs FL) as both gAllan Ray(9p,3/15fg vs BC; 11p,5/19fg vs FL) and gKyle Lowry(7p3a5s vs BC; 3p,1/9 vs FL) struggled to give him enough help. Any little guy who's played pick-up games trying to guard much bigger players had to love watching them make the attempt, though. (bRandy Foye defending cJoakim Noah?)
LSU had shown during the regular season that it had one of the best frontcourts in the country. The Tigers had lost by 1 point at Connecticut and had won in overtime at West Virginia; but they lost gTack Minor for the season in December and had trouble managing leads with just gDarrel Mitchell and a couple of freshmen (gGarrett Temple and gBen Voogd) in the backcourt. Voogd was shaky all season, but Temple turned in one of the great defensive performances of the year against Duke, hounding (PotY-1A)gJ.J. Redick into an 11p;3/18fg nightmare in LSU's 62-54 upset. Clearly Redick and the Blue Devils (who hadn't played a game away from a supportive North Carolina "home" crowd since March 1st) were perturbed at not getting the foul calls they were used to receiving. (Whether referee bias in favor of Duke is real or perceived, the Duke players certainly noticed a difference from their expectations playing in Atlanta.) cTyrus Thomas' athletic ability is as intimidating as the actual stats he provides. (Supposedly, he can place his entire hand above the square of the backboard. Yikes!) Texas survived its inside finesse vs outside finesse matchup with West Virginia on a buzzer-beating three-pointer, 74-71. But inside finesse vs inside muscle was a difference story in the LSU game. The Tigers scored just as easily inside against the zone or man-to-man defense and UTx was lucky to even get to overtime after a mad scramble resulted in a game-tying three-pointer. But the OT was all LSU in a well fought 70-60(OT) win.
UCLA was down and out against Gonzaga, trailing by 17 points with three minutes left in the first half. (PotY-1B)fAdam Morrison(24p5r) was good but not great for the Bulldogs, who needed just one more game-clinching play that never came as the Bruins closed the game with a thrilling 11-0 run to steal the victory, 73-71. Against free-wheeling Memphis, UCLA was handed the early lead thanks to wild shooting at the start by the Tigers. MU's looseness on offense let the Bruins take a 21-9 lead midway through the first half. If not for terrible free-throw shooting (6-for-17 in the first half, almost entirely the fault of fRyan Hollins: 14p9r;2/11ft), it wouldn't have even been a close game. But Memphis played very solid halfcourt D and UCLA had to hang on for a 50-45 win and a ticket to Indianapolis.
In the NIT, a late disqualification by the NCAA of tJames White and gJihad Muhammad forced Cincinnati to play undermanned at home in the quarterfinals against South Carolina, losing 62-65. The Gamecocks are trying to repeat last year's NIT crown and still keep alive the possibility of an SEC postseason sweep. (Remember, USCar swept Florida in the regular season.) Yet another team from the Colonial conference, Old Dominion, is the other NIT team that was able to go on the road and win its way to New York (knocking off conferencemate Hofstra in the quarters, 61-51). The other two top seeds, Louisville and Michigan, are all that's left to hold up the pride of the Big East and the Big 10. (The other top seed, Maryland, lost right away at home to Manhattan.)
UCLA vs LSU and Florida vs George Mason. All fine teams, but it says here: Gators over Tigers for the third time this year. (Tough to go against Rick Pitino in the postseason: I'll take Louisville over Michigan in the NIT.)
One glorious week left, folks.
-- Ron
The Florida Gators have been sitting right in front of our noses all season long, yet we haven't been able to see them clearly. In the preseason, they won the COACHES VS CANCER right off the bat, looking great beating more highly regarded Wake Forest and Syracuse. But those teams proved to be less than advertized, so Florida's accomplishment was diminished in our eyes by inference. In conference play, they had two great games with surprising Tennessee, coming up short both times so, again, we diminished them in our appraisal because of the Ls instead of Ws. They also lost twice to unregarded South Carolina -- surely something must be wrong for that to happen -- once more, they were diminished. But that same South Carolina team just won the NIT for the second straight year (with two easy blowout wins over Louisville and '04 NIT Champ Michigan). Florida is 31-6. Give them "moral victories" for squeak road losses at Tennessee, South Carolina and Alabama, and their moral won-loss record goes to 34-3. Why couldn't we see how good this team is?
The Florida-George Mason game featured a matchup of two teams, both with all five starters averaging in double-figures. That by itself is somewhat amazing. But (A) the Gators were taller at every position than the Patriots, and (B) SEC athletes trump Colonial athletes. Florida burst out of the gate 16-6 in the first five minutes, but George Mason (as it has before in this tournament) eventually weathered the storm and brought things nearly square at 25-24 with four minutes left in the half. But two big 3ptrs from pTaurean Green(15p) at the end of the first half and three more 3ptrs to start the second half from gLee Humphrey(19p;6/12 3s) spurted UofF to a 41-28 lead three minutes into the second half and gave them a margin they could manage the rest of the way. Another complete effort with meaningful contributions from all five Gator starters, including tBrewer(19p6r), fNoah(12p8r4b) and cHorford(6p13r4a).
UCLA's defense had been able to exploit Memphis' sloppy offensive efficiency in the Oakland Regional final, and it was the main reason for their easy roll past LSU in the second National semifinal game. LSU had advanced a long way without a truly effective point guard, but the Bruins were able to expose that flaw and take full advantage of it. LSU's front line had been able to control the boards (and the tempo) with its rebounding prowess, but the Tigers were outrebounded by the Bruins, 33-42. Without a true point guard to control the tempo in their stead, LSU couldn't keep UCLA from playing at a faster pace than they could handle. The only LSU offense all game was basically fGlen Davis going one-on-one in the paint. gDarrel Mitchell(8p1a), gGarrett Temple(1p1a) and gBen Voogd(2p0a) weren't able to control much of anything in this game. fLuc-Richard Mbah-A-Moute(19p7r) and gJordan Farmar(12p4a) were the nominal leaders, but it was the great effort on the defensive end that made this such an easy win.
"The Great Conference Shuffle" (GCS II) was the biggest story of the '05-06 season. The realignment of 22 teams between 12 conferences yielded the Mother Of All Conferences, the Big East, and depleted the strength of the likes of Conference USA. The change in the strength of schedule was a real thing; the perception of how much of a factor that was perhaps wasn't. The Big East lost the Boston market but added Chicago to its mix of large media centers, while the ACC added Boston to its mix of college town markets but major league hype. The old C-USA teams took things the hardest. The glut of teams probably did a disservice to the likes of Louisville and Cincinnati, who didn't have enough talent to be contenders in the Big East (but who would have had more room to flourish and receive attention had that stayed behind in Conference USA). Charlotte, which was expected to have it easy with its move to the Atlantic 10, instead struggled in the preseason and then didn't have the strength of schedule to bail it out in conference play. At least Marquette hung in with its new Big East conferencemates. Memphis, left behind to run roughshod over C-USA, had a first-rate preseason out of conference, but may have paid the price for not being tested in conference play when it ran up against a tough defensive UCLA team in the NCAA tournament. Gonzaga was fine out of conference as well, but the narrow victories inside the weak WCC didn't do it any favors. Ultimately, though, its basket-trading style served it well in the first two NCAA pod games, but it was caught napping failing to close a certain victory against UCLA as well. George Washington had a soft preseason, a soft league, an untimely late-season injury and an unkind NCAA seed/pod-placement that proved to be too much to overcome. The Big 10 had unquestionably one of its most competitive seasons of conference play, but the station-to-station, feed-off-the-home-crowd style of its conference games ultimately undermined its teams, who flopped badly in the basket-trading mode of the NCAA pod round games. By contrast, the Pac-10 featured lots of basket-trading and blown leads throughout its regular season and its teams fared well in the pod round (with UCLA displaying a defensive prowess as well that took it to the NCAA title game).
An off year for the ACC is always hard to gauge because of the media hype that always attends the league. (Duke never reveals its true nature until the Regionals of the NCAA tournament, after the misleading results from its home games in Cameron, after the misleading results from playing the ACC tournament in front of a supportive North Carolina crowd, and after the misleading results of its perennial NCAA pod placement in front of a North Carolina crowd as well.) This year, it turned out that the individual lack of athleticism that Georgetown exposed midseason was ultimately the Blue Devils' undoing in Atlanta against LSU in the tournament. Boston College had a fine season after an initial problem adjusting to ACC play early on. They were good, but they are now another team headed for overhyped perception with the dual pedigree of the ACC and the Big East and a major-city market to boot. The Big 12 was down as well. Texas still managed to win the regular season but lost the conference tournament final to Replacement Players from Kansas. The SEC -- the forgotten BCS league in basketball circles -- emerged in the postseason as the King of Conferences, taking both the NCAA and the NIT with runaway champions, Florida and South Carolina. Maybe they were overlooked because of athletes whose physical talent still exceeds their basketball skills (Florida's cJoakim Noah, LSU's fTyrus Thomas, USCar's fRenaldo Balkman). Maybe it was because the conference tournament moved from Atlanta to Nashville this year. Maybe because Kentucky had a down year, no one else got credit for what they were doing (although Tennessee certainly made its own noise winning at Texas).
GCS II also provided an opportunity for the "lesser" mid-major conferences to garner more attention. Lowly Drexel made it to New York and gave haughty Duke a solid game in the NIT SEASON TIP-OFF (but Dick Vitale couldn't believe that was just the seventh-best team the Colonial had to offer). The RPI rankings touted the strength of the MVC, but without any major scalps to claim, it was just the computer talking. When the made-for-TV BRACKET BUSTER event rolled around in February, the Colonial put the MVC in its place, and both leagues turned back into pumpkins (or so the perception was). Who knew that the George Mason-Wichita State BRACKET BUSTER game was really a preview of an NCAA Regional semifinal?
Even the '03-04 GCS I ("The Great Coaching Shuffle") storyline had one last carry-over addendum. While North Carolina and Kansas were already in the process of rebuilding around Replacement Players (having both lost all five starters from last year), Ben Howland fulfilled his mission by restoring the tradition at UCLA after leaving the successful program he had built at Pittsburgh through 2003. Pitt's own RP team (which still had one starter leftover from last year) competed well in the overstuffed Big East, but failed to live up to its seeding in the NCAA tournament, falling to Bradley of the MVC. Bruce Weber still had a couple of starters left from his GCS I team -- the Illini were solid but fell in an endplay against the Pac-10's Washington Huskies. Mississippi State and Georgia Tech also completely revamped with no returning starters from last year ... and it showed. Florida seemed to be in a rebuilding mode after losing its core of three stars from last year, but the Gators not only repeated as SEC tournament champs, the "Replacement Players" were Replacment Killers, rolling all the way to the NCAA title.
gJ.J. Redick and fAdam Morrison traded star performances in a great rivalry for Player of the Year honors. fMorrison had the more heroic season, scoring big points from the forward spot with lots of three-pointers thrown in for good measure. gRedick kept shooting his three-pointers on the way to becoming the all-time three-point scorer for the entire NCAA as well as the all-time scoring leader for the ACC. No small feats, to be sure. Much maligned during his senior year by local media, gGerry McNamara saved his dramatic best for last with a stirring four-game performance leading Syracuse to one more Big East tournament title. Great college players all, but on the pro level we'll more likely be talking about Villanova's bRandy Foye, Washington's tBrandon Roy and Memphis' tRodney Carney.
The coaching ranks were mostly quiet save for a few notable exceptions. In the offseason, Cincinnati fired Bob Huggins in the aftermath of a DUI incident. It promoted his assistant, Andy Kennedy to "interim coach" just for this season. Kennedy ably navigated the negative atmosphere by refusing to distance himself from Huggins during the season, guided an injury-plagued Bearcat team to a fine season (that deserved an NCAA bid which never came) and his reward: the boot in favor of Murray State's Mick Cronin, while Kennedy wound up as the coach of Mississippi for next year. Oklahoma State's Eddie Sutton had his own DUI accident troubles at season's end and took a temporary leave of absence (which may or may not wind up with the already intended promotion of son Sean Sutton to permanent head coach). Indiana's Mike Davis cracked under the scrutiny of being the head man at Indiana and resigned saying the school would be better off with "one of its own". IU's answer: Oklahoma's own Kelvin Sampson. John Chaney quietly resigned at the end of the regular season, a year after last year's ugly "goon" incident where he ordered one of his own players to intentionally injure a St. Joseph's player.
If there's a story for the season and a lesson to be learned from it, it's probably the extreme difficulty in separating perception from reality in the unbalanced media age that we're in. The creation of the Mega-Big East only makes matters worse. The kids from Florida never headed the lack of attention they were getting. Objectively, you can look back and argue that they had the most solid season going all year long, but just weren't receiving the credit they deserved. Bigger isn't always better, and in a sport where the national champion is determined on the court and not in the polls (at least once you get past the invitation stage), it's way more important to get your own act together internally than how much attention you're getting for it from the outside looking in. (That said, how much hype will Florida get next year with everybody back!?)
Thanks, everybody. I hope you enjoyed reading the weekly columns as much as I enjoyed writing them. We'll do it all again next year on the road to Atlanta!
-- Ron
[P.S. Goodbye, Hot Poppa.]
(c) 2005-06 Ron McBay
www.ronmcbay.us/HLS
ron@ronmcbay.us