The stars from last season's heyday have departed; the league will return to a more normal
("mid-major") level of competition. George Washington returns
the strongest nucleus to make them the odds-on favorite. Meanwhile, St. Joseph's and Xavier's
bit players should still have the experience to make them good enough to challenge for the lead.
GW has two of three big games at home, while Xavier has two of three on the road.
George Washington had a great preseason, making noise on the national scene.
Massachusetts made a splash as well. Richmond, Temple and Dayton were up and down. Xavier and St. Joseph's struggled.
Temple coach John Chaney's actions (putting a player into the game to deliberately injure an opposing player because he
was upset at illegal screens not being called by the referees) deserved the rest-of-the-year suspension he got ... and then
some. If he weren't a Hall-of-Famer, he'd probably be fired.
* The addition of Miami and Virginia Tech from the Big East means the end
of a balanced league schedule, so you can no longer look strictly at won-loss records to tell
which team is really the best. Ugh.
All four of last year's juggernauts have lost their star players, so everything's up for grabs
this year.
Stetson has three early home games that might allow it to take the lead in the race and hang on
from there; Florida Atlantic and Central Florida start off with a couple of tough road
games.
As expected, league teams had a tough time all around. Central Florida had the
most successful preseason (but the early conference loss to Garner-Webb put them
behind in the race right off the bat). Lipscomb also had a decent preseason.
Illinois was outstanding; Wisconsin and
Michigan State were good; Michigan wasn't able
to make the step forward. Iowa was the surprise of the preseason and figures to be a
real factor in the league race. Ohio State was better than expected.
Oklahoma State was great; Kansas won a big game at
home (even without its best player); Texas was good but still has room for improvement.
Missouri and Iowa State pulled off big upsets in front of the home folk.
Kansas didn't lose any games while fWayne Simien was out (and now he's back). As
soon as it looked like Texas had taken control of things, they lost fP.J. Tucker for the
year to grades. Now Oklahoma has inserted itself into the mix.
* The departure of Miami and Virginia Tech to the ACC leaves the league with
a single-division, 12-team lineup. Fewer easy Ws on the schedule for everyone will strengthen
the competition but make it harder to enter the postseason on a roll.
The first couple of big games involve Pitt; they'll be in it or out of the race before anyone.
Meanwhile, UConn has a chance to come up big late in the season.
The Big Three made it through the preseason just fine. Notre Dame was only so-so;
Providence couldn't step up. Boston College was
solid; West Virginia was a surprise. St. John's posted a big upset in front of the home
folks.
Pacific and Utah State again figure to battle it out in the
paint for league supremacy. Cal St-Northridge and UC-Santa Barbara will do no better than
spoil.
Playing at home first is a slight edge for UOP versus USU.
Utah State had one big win; Pacific was solid. UC-Santa Barbara and
Cal St-Northridge were a bust. UC-Irvine and Cal St-Fullerton survived the preseason with some hope intact.
Key games:
1 /13: @ Pacific 73 Utah St 66 (2OT)
1 /15: @ Cal St-Northridge 70 Utah St 67
1 /27: Pacific 66 @ Cal St-Northridge 62
2 /10: @ Utah St 77 Cal St-Northridge 57
2 /12: Pacific 64 @ Utah St 63
2 /26: @ Pacific 75 Cal St-Northridge 61
3 / 9 BIG WEST TOURNAMENT 1st/16s @ Anaheim, CA
(The top 8 teams advance to the conference tournament;
the top 2 teams get byes into the semis; seeds #3-4 get byes into the quarters.)
[5]UC-Irvine 80 [8]Idaho 67
@ [7]UC-Santa Barbara 55 [6]Long Beach St 49
3 /10 BIG WEST TOURNAMENT Qtrs @ Anaheim, CA
(The #3-seed will get the lowest remaining seed and #4, the highest.)
@ [3]Cal St-Fullerton 66 @ [7]UC-Santa Barbara 55
@ [4]Cal St-Northridge 72 [5]UC-Irvine 56
3 /11 BIG WEST TOURNAMENT Semis @ Anaheim, CA
(The #1-seed will get the lowest remaining seed and #2, the highest.)
It's the last season for the conference membership as is before major changes coming next year.
Expect things to go out with a bang as several squads have strong rosters returning from last
year's fine showing.
Cincinnati starts out with its tougher games at home, but
Memphis only has four tough games to everyone else's five.
Illinois-Chicago and Wisconsin-Milwaukee should
again fight it out for the top spot; Wisconsin-Green Bay's veteran squad and Detroit's new blood may also be in the mix.
Wisconsin-Milwaukee has to hit the road first in its toughest games; the slight edge goes to
Illinois-Chicago.
It was already a bad preseason for Illinois-Chicago, but the home
loss to Wisconsin-Milwaukee pretty much settled the league race before it even got
started.
Toledo's five returning starters are poised to take over the
helm in the West (and overall); in the East, both Buffalo and Miami also return all
five starters from teams that were knocking on the door last season.
Buffalo has its biggest games at home first while Miami-OH must break through first on the road.
Key games:
12/ 4: We Michigan 70 @ Buffalo 53
1 / 2: @ Bowling Green 95 Buffalo 88
Southern Illinois returns enough of a nucleus to be the
favorite (although not the runaway they were last year). Wichita State and
Northern Iowa should again be in the mix for second place (or better).
Northern Iowa has its big games at home first; Southern Illinois goes on the road first.
Southern Illinois, Wichita State and Northern Iowa
were all solid in the preseason; but so were Creighton, Evansville and Bradley. Southwest Missouri State and
Illinois State also posted positive campaigns.
UNLV, with its new coach, appears poised to take over the
top spot. Utah, struggling to make the transition from its long-time coach, figures to be the
top rival.
Utah has the showdown game at home first -- that's a slight advantage.
Murray State was only so-so in the preseason; Tennessee State
and Tennessee Tech couldn't step up. Eastern Kentucky came through with the most solid
preseason campaign.
Arizona is the clear favorite;
Washington is a strong second, and
Stanford should have enough to hold on for third place.
Two big games inside of a week at the beginning of January could mean the entire season for
Stanford; Arizona has the edge playing Washington at home first.
Arizona was good, not great; Washington went from
contender to favorite; Stanford was a disappointment. Oregon made noise that might be
good enough to spoil. The rest of the pack was also very solid all around.
East Tennessee State still has the best player, and no real
rival in the East. Davidson, Georgia Southern and Furman all figure to make a run for the West
title (and overall).
ETSU has it easiest with only three big games; Georgia Southern has the edge with early home
games against the biggest rivals.
East Tennessee State was purely a bust; Davidson, Georgia Southern
and Furman made no particular mark, either. Only Wofford and College of Charleston
even made any noise at all.
New transfers figure to make Middle Tennessee the team to
beat in the East (and overall) with Arkansas-Little Rock and Arkansas State following behind.
In the West, Louisiana-Lafayette and New Orleans should be favored.
Three games inside a week in January will make or break things for Middle Tennessee.
Middle Tennessee was only so-so; UALR made some noise;
Arkansas State was OK; Louisiana-Lafayette and New Orleans weren't able to step up.
Western Kentucky emerged from the preseason with the strongest performance.
Key games:
1 / 8: Denver 72 @ LA-Lafayette 66
1 /10: @ Mid Tennessee 85 AR-Little Rock 50
1 /13: @ AR-Little Rock 69 We Kentucky 66
1 /13: Mid Tennessee 70 @ Arkansas St 68
1 /15: @ Arkansas St 94 We Kentucky 90
1 /15: @ AR-Little Rock 69 Mid Tennessee 62
1 /20: @ Denver 95 Arkansas St 78
1 /22: @ Denver 68 AR-Little Rock 58
1 /27: @ LA-Lafayette 91 We Kentucky 76
1 /27: Arkansas St 78 @ AR-Little Rock 64
1 /29: @ LA-Lafayette 54 Mid Tennessee 44
2 / 3: We Kentucky 61 @ Mid Tennessee 56
2 / 5: @ Denver 79 LA-Lafayette 72
2 / 5: @ We Kentucky 76 Arkansas St 72
2 /10: @ We Kentucky 84 Denver 79
2 /10: AR-Little Rock 73 @ Arkansas St 67
2 /12: @ Denver 83 Mid Tennessee 71
2 /17: AR-Little Rock 55 @ We Kentucky 53
2 /17: @ Mid Tennessee 80 Arkansas St 60
2 /24: @ Arkansas St 86 LA-Lafayette 80
2 /24: @ We Kentucky 55 Mid Tennessee 53 (OT)
2 /26: @ AR-Little Rock 64 LA-Lafayette 63
3 / 4 SUN BELT TOURNAMENT 1st/16s @ Denton, TX
(The top 2 East teams and top 3 West teams receive byes into the quarterfinals.)
Once again, Gonzaga should be head-and-shoulders about the
rest of the pack. Look for Pepperdine and St. Mary's to battle it out for a distant
second-place finish.
The league schedule is irrelevant when one team is so far ahead of the others.
Gonzaga was outstanding in the preseason; Pepperdine was also very good;
St. Mary's was solid as well. Santa Clara pulled a shocker (but was disappointing
overall); most everyone in the conference was very good, actually.