Group Dynamics
It will be hard to top that kind of consistent quality. As the 2004-05 season starts, five teams that finished strong last year return intact enough to hit the ground running and pick up right where they left off. Georgia Tech doesn't have an unlimited supply of 'tweeners this time around but bbG Jarrett Jack and Company have some new help on the boards that should make them more of a threat in conference play. Oklahoma State lost one star 'tweener but has two copies of 'T Joey Graham (i.e., twin brother Stephen) and more size in the paint this time around. Wake Forest has everyone back from the deepest roster in the land led by the most complete point guard in the country (G Chris Paul). Likewise, Illinois led by G Dee Brown and G Deron Williams returns everyone from last year. Kansas returns four starters led by bruiser F Wayne Simien and has some depth on the bench this time.
Teams that lost a lot of firepower (but added just as much or more) may not have it all together in the preseason, but might well surpass the early favorites by the time we hit conference play. Kentucky lost its backcourt and center but C Randolph Morris jilted the NBA to play for coach Tubby Smith and G Joe Crawford should be an instant star. Connecticut lost its great center and scoring guard but adds NBA-ready F Rudy Gay, G A.J. Price and ex-Georgia Tech F Ed Nelson to last year's supporting cast. Texas said goodbye to the winningest senior class in school history but hello to the best recruiting class in school history, led by pre-NBA F LaMarcus Aldridge and F Mike Williams, joining a still-deep roster of experienced winners. Louisville's 'T Francisco Garcia now has some frontcourt help with the return of F Ellis Myles and a couple of freshmen big men.
Returning all of your players from a squad that underachieved is a mixed blessing. It won't get worse for G Rashad McCants and North Carolina (but some new frontcourt will help). If G Billy Edelin winds up playing, Syracuse will have the same roster of talent (plus a new freshman combo guard to spell him and G Gerry McNamara). G Chris Hill, F Paul Davis and Michigan State have the same cast to work with plus a new forward and guard who should help where they were weakest last year. 'T Hassan Adams and Arizona have some added depth this time around. G Anthony Roberson, 'T Matt Walsh and Florida welcome some size and depth to last year's thin, soft roster. G Chris Thomas, F Torin Francis and Notre Dame hope ex-Arizona F Dennis Latimore provides a presence in the paint that they've lacked.
Some teams that were full-blown powerhouses last year are only half-strength this time around. It's G J.J. Redick's team now at Duke (but coach Mike Krzyzewski spurned the chance to coach Kobe Bryant and the Lakers, so all is well). G Carl Krauser, F Chris Taft and Pittsburgh don't have the full complement of bruisers this time around. Wisconsin lost its do-everything star (but the Year After supporting cast is still there). Gonzaga lost all of its guards (but the front court is still stocked). Mississippi State still has F Lawrence Roberts inside (but not last year's go-to guard outside). Alabama still has F Kennedy Winston (but last year's backcourt is gone). 'T Julius Hodge still does everything for N.C. State (but last year's best shooters have departed).
Looking to step it up after showing flashes of what could be last year are Michigan (four starters return from last year's NIT champs), Washington (everybody's back from the team that knocked Stanford from the unbeaten ranks), Charlotte (four starters are back from last year's five-way league co-champs).
Coach Mike Montgomery left Stanford for Golden State in the NBA; Trent Johnson (ex-Nevada) will try to continue the tradition in Maples Pavilion (which is finally getting rid of its spring-loaded trampoline playing floor). John Thompson III left Princeton to follow in his father's footsteps at Georgetown. Joe Scott left Air Force to take JT3's place at his alma mater. Thad Matta left Xavier to coach at Ohio State. Lon Kruger (ex-Florida, ex-Illinois, ex-NBA/Atlanta Hawks) is back in the college ranks at UNLV. Jeff Lebo traded up again, this time from Chattanooga to Auburn. Larry Eustachy (ex-Iowa State) is back from his scandal-inspired exile to coach at Southern Mississippi. Eddie Sutton hasn't officially declared this to be his last season at Oklahoma State (but son Sean Sutton has been officially declared his successor). Gene Keady has officially said this will be his last season at Purdue (and his new assistant, ex-Southern Illinois coach Matt Painter has already been tapped to take his place).
We're still a year away from the major shakeup in conference memberships, but the first tremor goes into effect this year. Miami(Florida) and Virginia Tech (ex-Big East) are -- ugh! -- members of the ACC. That's great for the football side of things, but it ruins the basketball side. With 11 members now, they've had to go to an unbalanced schedule so the regular season race won't reflect who-beat-whom as much as who-didn't-play-whom. (For example, Wake Forest doesn't have to play at North Carolina this year. Yeah, a home game against Virginia Tech is an equal substitute for a road game in Chapel Hill, right?) That leaves the Pac-10 as the only major conference left that plays a full home-and-home balanced schedule anymore. Yikes.
The preseason tournaments have been beefed up this year.
The new season is here, folks! It's time to start the road to St. Louis!
-- Ron
Nothing Happened
In the only remotely meaningful matchup, Princeton played a good game at Syracuse in the second round. The Tigers got out to a 14-5 lead at the start which allowed them to control the tempo. They were still tied at 40-all midway through the second half before the Orange shut them down, winning 56-45. Out West, St. Mary's pulled off the mild upset, beating California in Berkeley and earning a trip to the semis in New York. Go with the best guard in the field, Gerry McNamara, (not to mention a supportive home crowd) as 'Cuse wins the COACHES VS CANCER crown (but tune in to the semis to see one of the best frontcourt matchups all season: SU's F Hakim Warrick vs MSU's F Lawrence Roberts, if he's healthy).
A dizzying array of tournaments and round-robin brackets get started this week, most of which extend into next week and beyond. By far the most prestigious is the PRESEASON NIT. Expect Wake Forest, Arizona, Michigan and Providence to win twice at home this week and advance to New York. Wake's first-round opponent, George Washington, may actually turn out to be the strongest team in the Atlantic 10 this year (since all of last year's stars have departed). The Demon Deacons have exactly the same roster as last year, which can be a tricky thing maintaining chemistry the second time around. The Wildcats lost Andre Igoudala from last year's squad but have added depth (and hopefully more poise) this year. The Wolverines lost their best player, Bernard Robinson, but hope last year's run to the NIT crown gives them the confidence to take it to the next level this year. Providence still has its best player, F Ryan Gomes, but lost much of its supporting cast from last year. The best guard in the field is WFU's Chris Paul. 'Nuff said.
N.C. State should roll at home through the BCA INVITATIONAL past the likes of Pepperdine (but take a glance at whether they have any trouble controlling the boards). In the search for breakthrough teams emerging this year, check for the margin of victory for LSU in their in-state rivalry tournament (Tulane, Lousiana-Lafayette and Lousinana Tech). The Tigers, like Michigan, have a roster full of young athletes, led by sophomore F Brandon Bass and freshman F Glen Davis. If they can gel as a team, they'll be tremendous. It's a sign of trouble if Arkansas doesn't come out on top of the PARADISE JAM field (St. Louis, Austin Peay). It may not mean much now, but whoever takes the up-for-grabs TOP OF THE WORLD CLASSIC (Northwestern, Western Michigan, Utah State) will emerge with a ton of confidence (and a RPI rating) that may hold them in good stead later on in the season. Even with a lot of new faces, Georgia State has a reasonable shot at stealing the JIM THORPE CLASSIC in Reno against a vulnerable field (Nevada, Southern Mississippi).
Orange U Experienced
Also playing the same tune as last season (in a bad way) were North Carolina, Kansas and Arizona. Those three name-brand squads were consistently overrated a year ago and "underachieved" in disappointing campaigns. At least the Tar Heels have an excuse for their embarrasing 77-66 loss to Santa Clara in the PETE NEWELL CHALLENGE: G Raymond Felton was sitting out a one-game suspension. Still, if you're supposed to be a Final Four-calibre team -- and Sports Illustrated has them rated #1 -- you should be able to beat a non-tournament team without one of your key players, even on the road. (In '93, Duke's G Bobby Hurley missed a game due to a concussion and 'T Grant Hill took over the point and directed the Blue Devils to a road victory over Georgia Tech. UNC should have been able to do exactly the same with G Rashad McCants in this case. Instead, the same issues of poor rebounding and interior defense showed up.) The Jayhawks, rated #1 in the AP poll, struggled to defeat Vermont (a NCAA first-round loser last year) at home, having to come from behind for a 68-61 win. F Wayne Simien's stats were fine (25p14r), but in this era a strong performance by your power forward doesn't automatically translate into a blowout victory. KU did this last year as well, losing at home to Richmond (another NCAA one-and-done team a year ago). (Don't forget, Kansas' run to the Elite Eight last year was paved for them with upsets by UAB over Kentucky in the Sweet 16 and by Pacific over Providence in Round 1.) At least at the very start of this season, it looks like those two teams still haven't fully taken to coaches Roy Williams and Bill Self. Arizona's problems last year were supposedly all due to injuries keeping them from playing at full strength. How then to explain the lopsided 78-60 loss at Virginia by a fully healthy UofA squad on Sunday? UVa's freshman G Sean Singletary looked much more poised running his club than UofA's sophomore G Mustafa Shakur. The Wildcats tried to force the break when it wasn't there and could never get over the hump in a hostile environment. The same disarray we saw last year was fully in evidence at the start of this year. Take the name brands off the jerseys of these three squads and the "surprise" of their poor performances vanishes.
Don't read much into runaway victories in front of home crowds, but give a nod of acknowledgement to N.C. State's win in Raleigh of the three-round BCA INVITATIONAL, to Marquette's win in Milwaukee of the three-round BCA CLASSIC, and even to LSU's win in New Orleans of the two-round LOUISIANA CLASSIC. Despite some key losses off of last year's NCAA tournament team, Central Florida was able to pull out some squeak victories to take the TOP OF THE WORLD CLASSIC title in Fairbanks.
This is the best week of the entire preconference schedule. Starting right off on Monday, we get under way with the MAUI INVITATIONAL which features the best draw we'll see all preseason (Texas, Louisville, UNC, Stanford and Tennessee). The Tar Heels' Raymond Felton is the best point guard but give UNC the slight edge moreso because the other squads have more new players to work into the mix whereas UNC is essentially the same team from a year ago. (Talent-wise, though, UT's roster of newcomers trumps UofL's.) On Tuesday and Wednesday, the GUARDIANS CLASSIC concludes in Columbia, MO. Missouri has already had a home loss to Davidson, but Ohio State (with the threat of NCAA penalties looming) has started off great under the direction of ex-Xavier coach Thad Matta, and Creighton has also looked strong. On Wednesday and Friday, we have the conclusion of the PRESEASON NIT (where Wake Forest should have no trouble whatsover over upset-minded Michigan in the final). The LAS VEGAS THANKSGIVING bracket continues Tuesday and concludes Saturday and should produce a champion worth noting among Vanderbilt, Southern Illinois, UTEP and Arizona State. (Don't be surprised if UTEP steps out of the pack to make a name for itself.) Starting Wednesday and running through Saturday, the GREAT ALASKA SHOOTOUT also has a solid field (Alabama, Washington, Utah and Oklahoma). (The "Best Guard in the Draw" Rule says ride UW's Nate Robinson to the title.) In one-off matchups, go with the better backcourt: Maryland's John Gilchrist trumps Memphis's rookie PG (TIP-OFF CLASSIC on Friday); Illinois's Dee Brown and Deron Williams trump Gonzaga's untested pups (JOHN WOODEN TRADITION on Saturday); and Florida's Anthony Roberson trumps Providence's Donnie McGrath (ORANGE BOWL CLASSIC on Saturday).
It's college hoops. GUARDS MATTER.
SUNDAY 28 NOVEMBER 2004:
I have had a system crash. As a result, I don't have access to the distribution list of e-mail addresses of the subscribers to HOOP, LINE AND SINKER.
Until I can recover from the crash, HLS will only be available on the website.
In the meantime, to make sure I have your e-mail address, please re-send it to me at usul@mindspring.com.
Sorry for the inconvenience,
--Ron
Volume IX, No. 4 - 04 Nov 29 - [] Top 25 Ballot
Temp-"O"
Wake Forest blinked in the PRESEASON NIT final against up-and-down Arizona, but they were able to regroup in time to pull out a 63-60 nail-biter. UofA and Michigan played a horrid-looking semifinal where neither team had enough leadership at the point to be able to pull off that key sequence of score-stop-score to take control of the game. Providence had an easier time with the Wolverines in the third-place game (but then got blown out in Miami against Florida in the ORANGE BOWL CLASSIC). F Ryan Gomes can't do it all for the Friars night-in and night-in, so expect more inconsistent results from them. Washington held off Utah, Oklahoma and Alabama to take the tough GREAT ALASKA SHOOTOUT. 5-9 G Nate Robinson is a sight to see slashing through the lane and finishing with a slam. The Huskies want to run and shoot, and they were just good enough to escape the Utes' attempt to slow them down in the first round; the Sooners and Crimson Tide were more willing to run, but the "Best Guard on the Floor" Rule prevailed.
In LAS VEGAS, Southern Illinois' frantic waterbug squad caused enough havoc to disrupt UTEP and slow-footed Vanderbilt. Arizona State (and C Ike Diogu) also looked fine, despite a buzzer-beater loss in the semifinals. Creighton and Ohio State went into overtime before the Bluejays won 65-63; both teams have gotten out of the gate well. (If you're keeping track, that's two tournament wins for the Missouri Valley Conference, keeping pace with the ACC.) Arkansas routed a weak field to take the PARADISE JAM title. Kent State, Old Dominion and surprising host Texas A&M-CC split among themselves atop the CORPUS CHRISTI CHALLENGE. (All three of those teams beat Florida State.)
Illinois' backcourt throttled Gonzaga in the JOHN WOODEN CHALLENGE. The 'Zags have a very strong front line for a station-to-station, post-up style of game, but UofI just raced past them, winning 89-72 (and it wasn't even that close). Maryland dismantled Memphis in the TIP-OFF CLASSIC in Springfield, MA (a homecoming of sorts for Tiger coach, John Calipari [ex-UMass]). Depending on how you look at it, either Georgia Tech was lucky to escape with a 60-59 win over Illinois-Chicago, or the Yellow Jackets posted the strongest result of the week: a true road win over a team that made the NCAA tournament last year. GT isn't quite the juggernaut they were last year, though. With two fewer 'tweeners around, they can't fully extend their scramble defense all the way out on the perimeter and still have enough quickness/size to recover and rebound. Freshman F Jeremis Smith looked like he was going to be able to help on the boards, but he injured his knee against Arkansas-Little Rock and may wind up redshirting.
Even though they have gotten off to a stronger start than last year, don't expect the Big 10 teams to do any better this year in the ACC-BIG 10 CHALLENGE, which runs Monday through Wednesday. Only Minnesota (over Florida State) and Ohio State (over Clemson) are favored. That doesn't mean that Illinois doesn't have a great chance at home against Wake Forest (but the Deacons' balanced attack should win out where Gonzaga's frontline couldn't do it alone). Michigan State has been posting some "oh"-fensive scores that rival UNC's. We'll see how real they are when they have to travel to Cameron to face Duke. The Spartans have a tough week ahead: after Duke, they play in the BB&T CLASSIC Saturday and Sunday against solid George Washington and most likely Maryland in the final. Mississippi State has been rounding into form, but you never know which Arizona team will show up, so who knows what will happen when those two face off in the JOHN WOODEN CHALLENGE on Sunday. (MSU's F Lawrence Roberts will be the best player on the floor, but I'm not sure G Gary Ervin qualifies as the best guard.)
Sorry about the logistical problems this week. –-Ron
MONDAY 6 DECEMBER 2004:
I have been able to recover e-mail addresses from my crashed system (but not the specific distribution list for
HOOP, LINE AND SINKER). You should receive this week's column by e-mail today. If you didn't get it,
please contact me at usul@mindspring.com.
I'm hoping to get back to normal functionality (for HLS, anyway) by the end of this week.
Sorry for the inconvenience,
-- Ron
Volume IX, No. 5 - 04 Dec 6 - [] Top 25 Ballot
Twice The Speed
As if one loss wasn't enough, Maryland and Michigan State both lost again over the weekend in the BB&T CHALLENGE to George Washington. GW's only loss so far was on the road at Wake Forest in the first round of the PRESEASON NIT. The Colonials love to run, posting 96 on MSU and 101 on MD. G T.J. Thompson and F Pops Mensa-Bonsu are a nice inside-outside combo. Yes, the D.C. crowd support helped, but don't dismiss this showing. By itself, it has probably earned them an NCAA bid come March, and this is no one-round splash performance, this is Sweet 16-calibre. They won't run through the Atlantic 10 undefeated, but they're certainly the favorites and the only league team to make any national impression so far this year.
North Carolina's win over Kentucky wasn't all positive. The Tar Heels bolted to a quick lead, but every time G Raymond Felton sat down, the "oh"fense bogged down and the Wildcats made a run. UK is very green, with very little "oh"fensive flow at this point besides the players' individual talent; but their defense was pretty good (despite giving up 91 points). They'll be much better by the end of the year, but UNC doesn't figure to get appreciably better. G Rashad McCants(28p) seems to be able to score any time (and any way) he wants. But the Heels are winning with O, not D, and that will catch up to them.
Gonzaga rebounded from its own shellacking at the hands of Illinois by beating in-state rival Washington 99-87 in Seattle. The 'Zags superior size up front made the difference. Arizona hasn't completely collapsed; the Wilcats beat Mississippi State 68-64 in the JOHN WOODEN CHALLENGE in Anaheim (but you keep expecting more from them). Alabama outlasted Charlotte in triple-overtime, 102-101. The Tide's roster isn't as individually talented as Kentucky's, but right now they're the form horse in the SEC. Florida pulled its "shocking loss" trick out of a hat early, losing badly at home to Miami (Florida). Utah State, which probably deserved an NCAA tournament bid last year (along with Pacific out of the Big West), crushed Utah 71-45. And, in what may be the earliest conference showdown ever, Wisconsin-Milwaukee went on the road to beat Illinois-Chicago, taking control of the Horizon League race before it even got started.
Things calm down a lot this week. The only major matchups come on Tuesday in the JIMMY V CLASSIC in New York (Oklahoma State at Syracuse, and Pittsburgh vs Memphis). 'Cuse claimed to be the Big 12 champs in their run to the 2003 national championship, but OSU is playing some crushing defense at the moment (winning 81-29 over Washington State this past Saturday). This coming Saturday, Louisville visits Florida and Wisconsin visits Marquette. In unofficial bracket-busting matchups, Kent State visits Creighton (Thursday), Pacific visits Nevada (Saturday) and UNLV travels to Auburn (Sunday). Iowa, which showed it's for real in dominating the showcase HAWKEYE CHALLENGE last week, has some tricky in-state rivalry games coming up this week, against Northern Iowa (Tuesday) and Iowa State (Friday).
Big D, Little Oh Spells "D'Oh!"
Iowa continues to show that it's in it for the long haul. The Hawkeyes beat back two tough in-state rivals last week: Northern Iowa (which earlier took Cincinnati to double-overtime on the road and knocked off Iowa State) and also ISU (which upset Virginia at the start of the week). They aren't especially quick-footed on the defensive end, and that will eventually be their downfall, but few teams have as complete a set of complementary offensive tools to work with: F Greg Brunner will bang with anybody underneath, 'T Adam Haluska is an athletic scorer, G Jeff Horner led the nation in three-pointers, G Pierre Pierce is a slashing scorer/distributor and 6-11 C Erek Hansen holds his own on the boards; and a couple of subs, F Doug Thomas and G Mike Henderson, can step up when needed. If only they were clamp-down defenders.
Marquette squeezed by Air Force in the finals of the BCA CLASSIC, edged Kent State in the finals of the BLUE AND GOLD CLASSIC, and also beat Wisconsin last week 63-54. Yes, they're undefeated at 8-0, but all of those victories came at home in Milwaukee. G Travis Diener is still around and so is stand-still shooter 'T Steve Novak. This veteran squad missed out on last year's 5-way logjam atop the Conference USA standings, and most all of those teams are off to good starts this year as well. The Warriors may need these preseason nonconference wins to bargain their way into the NCAAs at year's end. (They have one more trophy in sight when Arizona comes to town on Saturday.) Give 'em their props now ... but check back later when they play some tough teams on the road.
Connecticut is going through an awkward transitional patch at the moment. After barely escaping with a win the previous week at home over Indiana, the Huskies fell in the closing moments on the road in their U-GAME showdown at Massachusetts last week. F Josh Boone is a solid big-man, but he's not a go-to scorer. There's plenty of talent but things just haven't sorted themselves out so that they have multiple players who can be relied on for consistent contributions. From one game to the next, a different player leads them in scoring along with Boone. A Grade-A point guard could make it all good in a jiffy, but there doesn't seem to be one on the roster who can make it his duty to see that everybody gets the ball when and where they need it. They'll certainly improve as the season goes on, but point guards don't just develop out of thin air.
Kent State went on the road to hand Creighton its first loss. Even though the MAC hasn't gotten more than one tournament bid in several years now, its much better for the Golden Flashes to be on the winning end of any such bracket-busting matchups.
Temple gave Alabama problems on the road the last time out, so don't expect Wake Forest to waltz into Philly Monday night and have an easy go of it (but the Deacons' outside shooting prowess should win the day for them). Wisconsin can't afford to look past in-state rival Wisconsin-Milwaukee on Wednesday -- (the Panthers are already the frontrunners in the Horizon League race). On Saturday, Wake hosts Texas; the Longhorns' freshman G Daniel Gibson is steadily improving but he's probably yet too green to lead his team to such a big road win (but checkout the low-post matchup of UT's freshman C LaMarcus Aldridge vs. WFU's junior C Eric Williams). Kentucky was too young to march into Chapel Hill and come away victorious but beating Louisville on the road isn't out of the question; Tubby's Puppies are the better defensive squad, but UofL's 'T Francis Garcia will likely be the Best Player on the Court. No reason to think Georgia Tech won't be able to turn over Gonzaga's guards on a neutral court in the LAS VEGAS SHOWDOWN the same way Illinois was able to do in front of a home crowd (but if they don't, GU's frontcourt size will manhandle Luke Schenscher in the paint). On Sunday, don't miss the heights his ego will push him to when N.C. State's 'T Julius Hodge tries to outdo Washington's G Nate Robinson in front of his own crowd.
Western Uprising
The 'Zags' backcourt cupboard may not be completely bare after all. Sophomore G Derek Raivio survived the Yellow Jacket pressure well enough to score a career-high 21 points and, more importantly, allow GU's huge front line (6-8, 6-9, 6-10) to exploit GT's soft-in-the-middle halfcourt D as F Adam Morrison had 24p and C Rony Turiaf had 17p/10r. The extra couple of 'tweeners Tech had last year (but not this year) allowed it to extend its turnover D upcourt and also be effective in the halfcourt jump-and-switch scramble. But even last year, the defensive chemistry of a BBTTC lineup was tenuous. They won the PRESEASON NIT last year before G Will Bynum joined the squad, and while he was key in their run to the Final Four last year (and set his own career-high with 26p against Gonzaga), the defense wasn't the same after that. He's quick enough to make steals, but he's no great individual defender and rebounder. bbG B.J. Elder had a tough time trying to defend the 6-8 Morrison and he was worn down on the offensive end, shooting 6-for-18. Last year's Tech team also had more shooters on the perimeter, which meant teams couldn't get away with playing a zone full of tall trees who couldn't get out to guard the 3. This year's Tech team actually failed to even hit a single 3-pointer last week against Air Force (ending a streak of 546 games dating back to 1987). C Luke Schenscher is 7-1, but he's got no muscle to handle C Rony Turiaf in the paint. For Tech, this loss marks the official end of living off of last year's hype. This team has to deal with its own weaknesses this year. Don't get me wrong. They're still a very good team, but until they start to get some real contributions from key newcomers (either F Ra'Sean Dickey rebounding/defending in the paint, or 'T Anthony Morrow and G Zam Fredrick hitting shots from deep), they can no longer be considered a member of the cadre of teams that are Final Four-calibre. For Gonzaga, you can forget the rout loss against Illinois -- that's no longer an automatic disqualifier. Take into account their earlier triumph over Washington in Seattle and the 'Zags are looking at as strong a preseason as they've ever posted. (If they can pull off a win over Oklahoma State next week in the ALL-COLLEGE CLASSIC and they'll be a legit Top-5, Final Four contender.)
All's not lost for the Wolfpack, either, but they have come back to earth after all of the hyper-blowouts over scrub teams. Earlier in the week, they were lucky to survive a 78-72 scare at home from Louisiana-Lafayette (a team Kansas beat by 45). 'T Julius Hodge(15p5r4a2s) did have a solid game -- and he certainly appeared to be fouled driving to the basket down 64-66 with seconds left, but got no call from the refs -- but NCSU shot 5-for-23 on 3-pointers. One huge bright spot, though, is the play of 6-10 freshman C Andrew Brackman, who had 14p against Washington and 20p against LA-Lafayette. Their finesse offense works better against taller, less athletic teams who aren't as capable of guarding out on the perimeter. They'll be fine in the long run, but they've missed their one shot at a quality win in the preseason and so they, too, will have to wait until conference play to be considered for inclusion in the FF Cadre. The Huskies, however, have done more than enough to merit every accolade you can throw at them. They've already got four quality wins in the preseason: Utah, Oklahoma and Alabama to win the GREAT ALASKA SHOOTOUT and now N.C. State to boot. Their lone loss is 99-87 to the 'Zags in their in-state rivalry game. 5-9 G Nate Robinson(7p5a7r) had a poor game against the Wolfpack, but the Huskies had plenty of help from their athletic array of guards/'tweeners. If they weren't the Pac-10 favorites already, they are now.
It was a case of "lost and found" for Kentucky in the two halves of their game against Louisville on Saturday. They looked positively lost in the first 20 minutes, only scoring 16 points and down 32-16 at the break. But coach Tubby Smith must have given them one helluva halftime speech, because they found themselves in a big way in the second half, outscoring the Cardinals 44-26 and pulling out a thrilling 60-58 win. They began funneling the offense through F Chuck Hayes and things started to click: 'T Kelenna Azubuike cut through the lane for layups; G Joe Crawford spotted up for 3-pointers and G Patrick Sparks(25p5a), who was tremendous all day, saved the best for last, getting fouled attempting a 3-pointer with :00 left on the clock and then sinking all 3 free throws for the win. (To make matters even sweeter for him, he's a Kentucky kid who wasn't recruited out of high school by either UK or UofL, went to Western Kentucky and played on the team that came into Rupp Arena a couple of years back and pulled off a stunning upset behind 7' C Chris Marcus, and now he's a Wildcat hero in his own right.)
Wake Forest continues to post the Ws on the strength of their offense alone. (Surely, at some point, the all-O ole' D style will catch up to them and North Carolina, but so far not yet.) The Demon Deacons survived the challenge of Temple's zone D (and the shrewdly gifted talents of G Mardy Collins{25p7a}) in a 67-64 road win. Then, on Saturday, they matched Texas point-for-point in a 89-88 win at home. Only G Daniel Gibson is really making a solid contribution so far among UT's strong recruiting class. The Longhorns have lots of players getting minutes, but they haven't seemed to quite get a handle on taking control of a big game on the defensive end and converting on the big possession on the offensive end. This should be bbG P.J. Tucker's team more than it really is; he scores well, but they don't funnel the offense through him consistently because so many players have individual scoring talent. He's the end rather than the beginning of the offense. Whether they will gel into a cohesive personality (like Kentucky has) is still up in the air. As for Wake, it's a good thing that F Vytas Danelius seems to be in coach Skip Prosser's doghouse and is getting less minutes. He's not enough of an athlete to match how much the guards want to get out and run and he doesn't defend well in the halfcourt (but then, neither does the entire team).
Duke and Kansas continue to show signs that they may not belong in the FF Cadre, either. The Blue Devils have struggled out of the gate in many of their recent games and have used the supportive crowds (both at home and home-away-from-home in Chicago and New York) to will themselves to victory. They trailed Oklahoma by 10 at the half before G J.J. Redick turned it on and finished with 26p in their 78-67 win. Meanwhile, the Jayhawks managed to trail for three-quarters of the game at home against a South Carolina team that has hardly been firing on all cylinders. (The Gamecocks barely won 72-70 at home against South Florida only last Tuesday.) But being a D'Oh! (Big D, Little Oh) team can keep you in most any game as long as you keep making stops. KU just seems to be a team that stops itself in its own tracks for no real reason. They aren't the smoothest offensive team, though, and when they get away from the friendly confines of home, they'll be in major trouble. This is no automatic member of the Cadre.
Arizona handed Marquette its first loss, winning 48-43 in Milwaukee. The Wildcats certainly aren't dominating anyone, but a win is a win is a win as far as this season has been going. (That's good news for Virginia, which returns to the rankings after a week off thanks to AZ's steady play.) The Golden Eagles are still led by G Travis Diener and 'T Steve Novak without consistent help from anyone new just yet. But there are lots of signs around that the overall calibre of play is down this season compared to last; so what wasn't good enough last year just might carry you further this time around.
Unfortunately, the Christmas tournaments -- [Yikes! I said the "C"-word!] -- don't have the same strong fields that we had at Thanksgiving. Too bad. Teams have their acts together better now and some of those early matchups would have been much more high-quality now than they were a month ago. The RAINBOW CLASSIC doesn't feature anyone who's made much of a splash so far this season. UAB and Clemson are solid enough, but no one in the draw may be good enough to beat Hawaii on its home floor. Auburn is far and away the class of the round-robin SAN JUAN SHOOTOUT. Elsewhere, UCLA is a surprising 6-1, but that won't be enough for a win on the road at Michigan State on Tuesday. New Mexico is 8-1 and hosts Wake Forest on Wednesday in The Pit. Memphis hosts Providence on Thursday in The Battle of Disappointments.
Have a happy Chri-, er, Hannu-, er, Kwa-, er, Holiday Season, everyone! (I know this doesn't qualify as a PC public space, but on the other hand, I'm not actually a religious person myself, anyway.) ENJOY YOUR TIME OFF!!! -- Ron
Pretenders' Promenade
Illinois toughed out a 70-64 win in its BRAGGIN' RIGHTS rivalry game with Missouri. There aren't too many big-time split-crowd games left anymore (only Kentucky-Indiana at Louisville comes to mind; maybe also Gonzaga-Washington in Seattle?). The split crowds add to the drama and make for more entertaining games with more momentum changes spurred on by crowd support; but the alternating home-and-home series that most rivals opt for these days surely must offer a bigger payday for each host community beyond the actual gate receipts. Too bad.
Wake Forest had all it could handle in the paint trying to stop New Mexico's fDanny Granger(24p9r), but its trio of guards -- gChris Paul(23p5a7r), gJustin Gray(17p) and gTaron Downey(16p) -- paved the way for an 81-64 road win at The Pit. Pittsburgh couldn't completely subdue Richmond, winning only 69-60 at home, despite getting a career-high 31p from gCarl Krauser. (The Panthers' blowout of Memphis no longer suffices for a Top-10 ranking.) Charlotte's gBrendanPlavich(21p) sank a halfcourt 3-pointer at the buzzer to give the 49ers a 74-73 road win at Indiana. Auburn was given the SAN JUAN SHOOTOUT crown on tiebreakers ahead of Middle Tennessee and Toledo as all three teams finished with 2-1 records in the round robin event. Illinois-Chicago, which just missed upsetting Georgia Tech early in the season, somehow found a way to lose at home to Division II Wisconsin-Parkside. (The Flames have already dropped a Horizon League home game to rival Wisconsin-Milwaukee, which managed to beat Parkside by 37.)
Even though a few meaningful conference games do take place on the weekend, this week is still mostly filled with holiday tournaments and intersectional matchups. For the Pretenders (those teams who weren't on the radar before the season started but managed to pull off upsets that couldn't be ignored), these could be their last days in the glare of the national rankings. Iowa has certainly shown enough in its games after the surprise showing in MAUI that it's in for the long haul and will contend for the Big 10 title and do damage in the postseason as well. George Washington's luck is to play in the downgraded Atlantic 10; so while it may have overachieved in winning the BB&T CLASSIC, the weak showing of its leaguemates should ensure a return to the spotlight in March (but a tricky road game at undefeated West Virginia on Wednesday could knock its rep down a few notches). Virginia has only been OK since its surprising home win over Arizona earlier; a loss in its ACC opener on Sunday against Wake Forest could turn the promise of the preseason into yet another disappointing conference campaign. Marquette, whose rep came from several close home wins over other regarded teams, has an easy time this week, but will likely be eclipsed if an unranked team can post a compelling victory. Cincinnati's numbers look great on paper, but it hasn't really played anyone; that will all change when it faces top-ranked Illinois on Friday in the final game in the parade of teams that have gone through LAS VEGAS in the THANKSGIVING and CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY CLASSICs.
Gonzaga could conceivably make a case for a #1-seed in March if it pulls off the upset of Oklahoma State on Tuesday and then rolls through the upgraded WCC. Several league teams have made splashes one way or another in the preseason, but this week will go a long way to further or retard the positive impression they've made so far. Santa Clara, which beat short-handed North Carolina back in November, will have its hands full hosting Charlotte in the CABLE CAR CLASSIC on Tuesday and Wednesday. Pepperdine, which beat Wisconsin, will have it tough in The Pit trying to beat host New Mexico in the LOBO INVITATIONAL. St. Mary's, which beat California to earn a spot in the COACHES VS CANCER final four in New York, should be able to hold off Murray State in its own ST. MARY'S TOURNAMENT.
A year ago, Stanford at Washington was The Game Of The Year in the Pac 10 as the Huskies stopped the Cardinal's bid for an undefeated season. This year, with SU out of the gates at only 5-4 so far, the matchup hardly figures to matter in the league race at all. Boston College, West Virginia and Wichita State have all survived undefeated to this point, but that could change for all three this week. On Wednesday, BC hosts a good Kent State team that looks to be the standard bearer in the MAC this season. WVU hosts George Washington on Wednesday and then travels to N.C. State on Sunday. Wichita State gets going with league play in the very solid MVC and hosts a good Evansville team on Friday. This could be their last shot at making a lasting impression on the national stage before they buried beneath the headlines when league play in the major conferences gets under way in full swing in one more week.
In Search Of The Missing
Gonzaga's cRony Turiaf played sparingly on a sore ankle in two games, at Oklahoma State (in the ALL-COLLEGE CLASSIC) and at Missouri. His backup, cJ.P. Batista, was just fine, thank you, posting 18p and 17p10r with the extra minutes. The 'Zags scored inside all game against the smaller Cowboys and the GU 2-3 zone gave OSU the same problems that it faced earlier against Syracuse. (Coach Eddie Sutton had inserted freshman gJamesOn Curry to run the point for OSU with gJohn Lucas and gDaniel Bobik on the wings to spot up for 3s, but Curry made a turnover in the late stages and Sutton yanked him from the game. Yes, you need veteran poise in the big moments of big games, but the Cowboys also need that 3-guard alignment to be able to attack that zone.) GU won it 78-75 and was poised for a No. 2 ranking (having beaten two of last year's Final Four at that point), but later in the week they couldn't maintain the same attack mode on the road against the Tigers. MU is only 6-6 and has turned in some horrible performances this year, but they did take No. 1 Illinois down to the closing minutes in their BRAGGIN' RIGHTS game only two weeks ago (so this loss isn't as bad for Gonzaga as it might otherwise appear).
Kansas' fWayne Simien sat out from the start with his injured left thumb and then Georgia Tech's bB.J. Elder injured his thigh trying to finish a fast break midway through the first half when the Yellow Jackets came to Lawrence to play the Jayhawks. The game was a rematch of last year's Regional Final in St. Louis (which Tech won 79-71 in OT). Without a post presence to worry about, GT was able to extend its 'tweener scramble defense to the perimeter and raced to a 27-11 lead. When Elder sat with his injury, though, KU no longer had to worry as much about defending the perimeter and was able to harass cLuke Schenscher into bad shots and turnovers while sub fChristian Moody was able to occupy the lane. bJarrett Jack (who scored 29p against the Jayhawks in March) tried to do it all again, and almost did, but his 26p effort wasn't enough this time. The home crowd was a huge factor in rescuing Kansas from their 16-point deficit -- this game is a Yellow Jacket blowout on a neutral court -- but eventually tKeith Langford got going and KU took its first lead of the game in OT with Langford hitting the game-winner on a drive in the lane with 2 seconds left. Entertaining to be sure, but both teams still are missing pieces to make them complete. The Yellow Jackets won't be the same team as last year unless they can get consistent contributions from two freshmen, tAnthony Morrow and fRa'Sean Dickey. They showed flashes of it, but it's not quite there yet and it remains to be seen how high in the substitution rotation they'll be when conference plays starts.
West Virginia is still undefeated and turned in its best week of the season. First, the Mountaineers held off George Washington 71-65 at home. Then, they travelled to Raleigh and beat a reeling N.C. State team (playing without injured tJulius Hodge) 82-69. WVU is an even better version of a Princeton-style team than Princeton. tMike Gansey, gPatrick Beilein (the coach's son) and 6-11 cKevin Pittsnogle can all drain 3-pointers in their sleep -- they shot 56% (10/18) from 3 against the Wolfpack -- and their 2-3 zone is anchored by 6-11 shot-blocker cD'or Fischer. They're not superstar athletes individually, but if they can get you to play the game at their pace, you're doomed. Hodge didn't play for NCSU, but it would have been tough to win even with him on the court. Much harder to explain is the 63-45 loss in the final of the ECAC HOLIDAY FESTIVAL to 6-4 St. John's. State went 14 minutes without scoring in that one. They can get into a mode where they settle for 3s and if they're not falling and they get into a bad rhythm on the free throw line, the drought can be on.
Duke's fShavlik Randolph is sidelined for the time being with mono. The Blue Devils were able to pull out a home win over Clemson, 62-54, but it wasn't easy. Florida's tMatt Walsh is out with injury as well and it did catch up to the Gators, who fell 82-69 at Florida State.
Illinois continues to roll. The Illini wrapped up the LAS VEGAS CHRISTMAS CLASSIC with a final round win over previously undefeated Cincinnati, 67-45. UofI's Big Four (gDeron Williams, gDee Brown, tLuther Head, fRoger Powell) are all playing great, but it really is just the four of them. Wisconsin is rounding into form behind tAlando Tucker. The Badgers whipped Alabama 76-62 in Madison. After struggling at home to beat D'Oh! South Carolina 72-68, Pittsburgh turned in an even worse performance, trailing most of the game and then losing it in the end after finally taking the lead against lowly Bucknell, 69-66.
League play gets going in full for everyone this week. The relative strengths of the major conferences is closer than it has been. The Pac-10 and WCC have more teams playing well than is usually the case (but not more elite teams than normal). The ACC and Big East have the most teams that can do real damage, but the SEC teams have been weaker than in past years. The Big 12, the Big 10 and Conference USA are strong at the top but weak in their bottom halves. If it weren't for preseason shockers from George Washington and Massachusetts, the Atlantic 10 would be a total bust. Except for Bucknell's outlier result, no team from WAC on down was able to come up with a single Top-25 win.
Here's how the Top 15 conferences shake out:
Among the rest of the conferences, only individual teams have made any kind of national impression. Birmingham Southern (BIG SOUTH) was an Unwelcome Guest winner in the MARIST and CHATTANOOGA showcase tourneys. Utah State and Pacific (BIG WEST) will fight for one spot, but don't expect a splash this time around. Hofstra (COLONIAL) is playing solidly without a big win to show for it (while Old Dominion was able to share the CORPUS CHRISTI crown). Wisconsin-Milwaukee rules the HORIZON, but that's not saying much this year. Oral Roberts (MID-CONTINENT) has come close. Brown (IVY) was an Unwelcome Guest at the CENTRAL FLORIDA showcase. Meanwhile, Central Florida (ATLANTIC SUN (A-SUN)) ruled THE TOP OF THE WORLD. Niagara (METRO ATLANTIC (MAAC)) has a lot of close losses. Eastern Kentucky figures to win the weak OHIO VALLEY (OVC) (where struggling Samford somehow won the CENTRAL CONNECTICUT crown. Bucknell put itself and the PATRIOT on the map (but don't expect an at-large bid). Southeast Louisiana (SOUTHLAND) won at BOISE STATE. INDEPENDENT Texas A&M-Corpus Christi shared its own CORPUS CHRISTI crown (but that won't be enough to get its ticket punched).
Iowa starts conference play with tricky games against
Michigan and Ohio State. Likewise,
Alabama can't stumble at Vanderbilt or against
LSU. If UMass can beat UConn,
why can't undefeated BC do it as well? After that one, Boston College must put down
Providence. Miami(Florida) gets a rough welcome to the
ACC with a trip to Georgia Tech and then a home date
with N.C. State. Kentucky shouldn't have trouble
in conference with D'Oh! South Carolina or out of conference with undermanned
Kansas facing its first road game. Gonzaga should
quickly restore order in the WCC with road wins at Santa Clara and St. Mary's.
"Just Like Crabs In A Bucket"
Two weeks ago, Gonzaga was flirting with a No.2 ranking and a No.1 seed in the NCAAs; but in WCC play, the 'Zags barely escaped on the road at Tar Heel-killer Santa Clara, 91-87, and then fell two nights later on the road at St. Mary's (the surprise semifinalist in the COACHES VS CANCER CLASSIC back at the start of the season). Washington has struggled as The Hunted in Pac-10 play with a couple of so-so home wins before blowing a halftime lead on the road at UCLA, falling 95-86. Iowa has given back all of the juice it earned in the preseason with two bad showings inside the Big 10, losing 65-63 at home to an underachieving Michigan team and then 81-69 on the road at overachieving Ohio State; (There's no postseason for OSU due to sanctions, so every game in the regular season is The Big One for the Buckeyes.) West Virginia -- one of the best shooting teams in the country -- experienced a total meltdown in its Big East opener on the road at Villanova, shooting a paltry 27% from the floor while losing 84-46. Arizona, which had finally seemed to be putting things together, lost inside Pac-10 play on the road at hot-shooting Stanford, 87-76. Louisville started Conference USA play with yet another league slip-up in a 70-67 loss on the road at Houston. Wisconsin fell in Big 10 play on the road at Indiana, 74-61. Pittsburgh's slide continued into Big East play: the Panthers fell at home to Georgetown and barely escaped in OT on the road at Rutgers. Alabama was drubbed in SEC play on the road at Vanderbilt. N.C. State's slide continued into ACC play with a 67-66 road loss at conference newbie Miami(Florida). None of the teams that pulled off these upsets had done anything in the preseason to warrant a national ranking (and a couple of them, Michigan and Stanford, had played themselves out of even being worthy of tracking). Conference play provides a clean slate for teams to start over and regroup from whatever stumbles they made in the preseason (not to mention the added boost of second-semester eligibility for the academically challenged).
Among the Pretenders, only George Washington retained its preseason status (thanks mostly to the sorry state of the other teams in the Atlantic 10) as the Colonials posted two impressive routs to start off league play. West Virginia recovered enough from its first outing to hold off St. John's 64-60 in its second conference game. (In a league as competitive as the Big East, though, one early loss doesn't ruin their chances.) Iowa's start has been more disappointing. The strength of the Hawkeyes is that they have multiple players who are offensive scoring threats, yet in the past few games, things have degenerated into The Pierre Pierce Show. gPierce had 31 points against Ohio State but only 1 assist; in fact, it was power forward fGreg Brunner who led the team in assists in that game (with 4) -- that's a very bad sign for a team that ought to have 4 or 5 players in double-figures every time out. They never were the greatest defensive team, but if they're not sharing the ball on offense, there's nothing rankable about them. Cincinnati continued to drub everyone not named Illinois, posting two more rout wins in conference play. Marquette's numbers aren't impressive (except for gTravis Diener's 12 assists against Tulane) but they started out league play with a solid win. tDevin Smith's injury hampered Virginia's chances to keep its preseason high going and the Cavaliers have already suffered a couple of rout losses to league juggernauts.
The MVC started conference play with several teams having posted strong preseason campaigns. LAS VEGAS THANKSGIVING champ Southern Illinois got an early jump in the league race with a road win against their nemesis, GUARDIANS champ Creighton. Teams from the MVC, New Mexico from the Mountain West, UTEP / Hawaii from the WAC, Western Kentucky from the Sun Belt, St. Mary's / Pepperdine from the WCC (and maybe even the likes of the eventual MAC champion, Niagara, Hofstra, and Pacific / Utah State from the Big West) should be well positioned to pull off some surprises come March. The Brand Name teams aren't all that solid; the Generics came come in and replace them without any trouble.
Kansas emerged as the winner from an ugly game on the road at
Kentucky, 65-59. The Wildcats returned to the lost form of the first half of their game
with Louisville: no direction or shooting touch on offense. The Jayhawks won it due
to their relative competence in the backcourt and inspired effort from subs who are getting increased playing time in the
continued absence of fWayne Simien (out at least one more week). KU has managed to remain undefeated through their two
high profile nonconference games, so give them credit for winning in a year when better looking teams can't seem to produce
expected Ws. Similarly, Duke isn't DUKE this year, but the Blue Devils have
also yet to lose; so judge them only based on this year and their relative performance to the rest of the pack.
Two solid wins have legitimized Boston College's undefeated record: the Eagles beat
Connecticut on the road, 75-70 (even while fCraig Smith sat much of the game with foul
trouble) and then survived a gut check at home against Providence,
69-60.
Maryland actually played well on the road against North Carolina and still wound up losing 109-75. The Tar Heels' offensive efficiency and depth eventually overwhelm their opponents. You can stay with them for a while, but when you let up due to fatigue, they're still going and going and going. Likewise, it was a good week for Ohio State even though it included an 84-65 blowout loss on the road at Illinois. Not to be outdone, Wake Forest kept pace among The Big Three with a 103-68 pounding on the road at Clemson.
At the beginning of the year, the Big Game of the preseason appeared to be Georgia Tech at Kansas, pitting two teams who went into overtime last year for the right to make the Final Four. Although it was plenty entertaining (even with a major star from each team missing the bulk of the game), it wasn't the highest profile matchup in the rankings by the time that it happened; that honor went to Wake Forest at Illinois. For the regular season of conference play, it isn't likely to get any better than the one-and-only showdown this Saturday when North Carolina visits Wake Forest. The winner of that contest will likely be next week's No.1 team (as long as Wake doesn't stumble at home against Maryland on Tuesday, and Carolina doesn't trip up at home against Georgia Tech on Wednesday -- both of those games are also one-time-only pairings in the new unbalanced ACC schedule). The Illini's efficiency at top speed blitzed the Demon Deacons and the Tar Heels should very well do the same; WF does have enough depth to stay with UNC over the full 40 minutes but if UNC falls it will be to a team that slows it down and forces it to execute in the halfcourt rather than a team that tries to outrun it; Wake Forest is the kind of team that will go for the macho bait and not think in terms of what they need to do to "pull off the upset".
Some lesser showdowns are also on tap this week: Wisconsin hosts Ohio State on Tuesday and Michigan State on Sunday; Louisville visits Cincinnati on Saturday; and Boston College travels to West Virginia on Sunday.
Control Top
Louisville and Cincinnati staged the first of two battles for control of Conference USA. The Bearcats bolted out to a 25-8 lead in front of their home crowd, but the Cardinals showed plenty of resolve. Not only did they fight all the way back from the big deficit to win on the road, 69-66, but they did so without much help at all from their best player. tFrancisco Garcia was shut down by UC (7p; 2-for-13 shooting), but up stepped gTaquan Dean(25p) and fLarry O'Bannon(18p) to lead the way. UofL has shown some vulnerability with its earlier loss at Houston, so they can't quite breathe easy now that their toughest league game is behind them (but a tough road win like this is a great sign for their postseason prospects).
Oklahoma joined the growing ranks of teams that have conquered Connecticut. The Sooners have improved athleticism from a year ago. While cKevin Bookout doesn't have a lot of quickness in the lane and 5-7 gDrew Lavender doesn't have much height on the perimeter, fTaj Gray is a nice slasher and 6-4 gTerrell Everett shares some of the point guard duties out top. N.C. State had Duke in trouble in the first half at home but the Blue Devils' will to win carried them back to an 86-74 victory on the road. Swooning Georgia Tech was an easier challenge as the Wolfpack was able to beat the Yellow Jackets 76-68. With bB.J. Elder still out, GT has become The Jarrett Jack Show with no supporting players. Way too much dribbling leading to bad shots and turnovers have Tech in a tailspin after Carolina beat them 91-69 earlier in the week. Massachusetts pulled off another road upset, winning at the buzzer in OT at George Washington, 76-74. Talented bumblers up until now, LSU suddenly found some game (at least for a week): the Tigers blew out South Carolina, 79-64, and then outlasted Ohio State, 113-101 in double-overtime. It looks like Western Michigan has emerged from the muddled pool in the MAC. Wisconsin-Milwaukee has fully secured control of the weak Horizon. Vermont has a great inside scorer in cTaylor Coppenrath and a great outside scorer in gT.J. Sorrentine (at least by America East standards) -- the Catamounts beat rival Boston University 69-58 to take sole possession of the lead in the conference race.
Kansas has fWayne Simien back. fShavlik Randolph is playing sparingly for Duke until his conditioning returns. Mississippi State has lost gWinsome Frazier for the season. New Mexico's fDanny Granger may actually return rather quickly from emergency knee surgery last week but it remains to be seen how much it will affect his play. fAlando Tucker hobbled his way through Wisconsin's comeback victory over Michigan State as the Badgers scored the last 11 points of the game to win 62-59, preserving the nation's longest home win streak (38).
The big league games have probably come a little too soon for Texas. gDaniel Gibson is scoring well but hasn't mastered running an elite college team yet and cLaMarcus Aldridge is still a bit too raw. There's plenty of talent on the roster but at this point they'll be better off in the immediacy of all-or-nothing postseason play than in the long haul of a conference race.
"THE FORK IN THE ROAD!"
Player No. 4 of the Year is toss-up between North Carolina's fJawad Williams and Illinois' gLuther Head. The best thing about being Player No. 4 is that your opponents can't afford to put their best defender on you because there are three other threats on your team they have to worry about stopping first. Williams has lit up teams all year and so has Head, especially in the Illini's overtime escape thriller at home against an Iowa team that rediscovered itself in the least likely of environments, on the road at UofI. Illinois' great halfcourt defense kept them in the game while they struggled mightily on offense, but Head perservered to score 25p (despite 4-for-13 shooting on 3s) in their 73-68(OT) win at Assembly Hall in Champaign. Duke has survived undefeated with reserve tLee Melchionni standing in as Player No. 4, but fShavlik Randolph is back on court so they'll have an even stronger performer in that role. Syracuse, which keeps earning tough victories in the rough-and-ready Big East, now has gBilly Edelin back in the lineup and making a solid contribution. Wake Forest has the three great guards and cEric Williams (who torched Cincinnati for 29p on 13-for-18 shooting) but the Demon Deacons rarely play all three guards at once, so their real No. 4 is much weaker in actuality: fVitas Danelius. Washington's "Whose turn is it to lead?" mentality creates a revolving door in the P#4 role. Boston College (cNate Doornekamp), Kansas (tJ.R. Giddens), Michigan State (gChris Hill) and Iowa (gJeff Horner) have veteran P#4s who are having inconsistent seasons. Kentucky (gRajon Rondo), Louisville (fJuan Diego Palacios), Gonzaga (cJ.P. Batista), Texas (fMike Williams) and Connecticut (fRudy Gay) have newcomers in the role, which isn't necessarily bad. Arizona (gMustafa Shakur), Oklahoma (gTerrell Everett), Oklahoma State (gJamesOn Curry), Alabama (gRonald Steele), Cincinnati (gJihad Muhammad) and Mississippi State (gGary Ervin) have playmaking guards as Player No. 4, which should be a good thing giving them a freer rein to make something happen -- (but that bunch is having only middling success). Player of the Year might not tell as much about who's going to make it all the way this year -- (by the way, right now I'd take Illinois' gDeron Williams) -- but Player No. 4 of the Year might tell you a lot. (Could the Illini possibly have both? Just maybe so.)
Villanova did it once and almost did it twice: they destroyed previously unbeaten Kansas 83-62 as the Jayhawks finally laid the egg they have been trying to pass all season long. But before that, only fJared Dudley's two free throws with :04 left saved still undefeated Boston College from being the Wildcats' first killed giant in a 67-66 BC home victory. It's not a coincidence that Kansas' best wins came when fWayne Simien was out and that this drubbing came after he has returned to the lineup. He's a fine power forward, but It's A Guard's World, After All these days in college basketball. VU's gAllan Ray(27p) and tCurtis Sumper(25p) lit up KU from beyond the arc while fSimien(15p8r) muscled his way in the paint. gRandy Foye's 22p against BC was almost enough to counteract fDudley's 36p around the rim. The Old School 3-point play (basket underneath and a free throw) just can't keep pace with the New School open jumper at the top of the key: a great day the old way might be five 3-point plays but the new way some guys have had ten 3-pointers in one game this year. It's also no wonder Connecticut still doesn't have a quality win despite starting three frontline players destined for the NBA.
For all the bad-mouthing given to newcomers Virginia Tech and Miami(Florida), they're alone in fourth- and fifth-place, respectively, behind the Big Boys (Duke, North Carolina and Wake Forest) in the vaunted ACC standings, ahead of the much ballyhooed likes of N.C. State, Georgia Tech and Maryland, none of whom can seem to win for losing lately. VATech beat N.C. State at home and then GATech on the road, each in one-point thrillers. Both upstarts are led by combo-/scoring lead guards.
Gonzaga stumbled a second time inside the competitive WCC, this time losing on the road at San Francisco. That leaves St. Mary's (who gave the 'Zags their other conference loss) in control of things atop the standings. Likewise, George Washington lost at Richmond and is now no longer in control of the grab bag that is the Atlantic 10. Just when Texas had seemed to take full control of the Big 12 with a confident talent-for-talent win over Oklahoma State, the Longhorns lost their best player, fP.J. Tucker, for the rest of the season due to academic issues. Without him, they struggled offensively on the road at Oklahoma, which suddenly looks as good as anybody else at the top of that league. New Mexico without fDanny Granger was no match for Utah with cAndrew Bogut(24p20r). Both UTEP and Wichita State squeaked by their main rivals to hold slim leads in their respective conference races in the WAC and the MVC.
The biggest game of the year in the Big 10 is on tap Tuesday when Illinois' 18-0 season clashes with Wisconsin's 38-0 home winning streak -- they'll get a rematch in February but this one is the toughest game remaining on the Illini's schedule. On Thursday, Washington visits Arizona in the first of their home-and-home showdowns for supremacy in the Pac-10. Kansas perennially has the inside track on the Big 12 conference race because it never has to play Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas more than once each during the regular season (while each of those teams must always play each other twice) and this year, two of three of those matchups are in Lawrence to boot; first up are the visiting Longhorns on Saturday. Syracuse hasn't been as fearsome on the road and it must travel to play Pittsburgh on Saturday as well.
And Then There Were Two
Arizona turned in its best and worst performances of the season in the same week. First, they rallied to beat Washington at home, 91-82, as cChanning Frye(18p) stepped it up in the second half and burned the smallish Huskies in the paint. Then, the Wildcats managed to snap a 38-game streak of their own -- they hadn't lost to Washington State since 1986 -- but managed to do so in a 70-63 home defeat. (Yes, WSU's Dick Bennett is a fine coach, but Washington beat the Cougars 66-48 only a week ago and Oklahoma State beat them 81-29 in December.) Something is really not right with that result. The Wildcats continue to show signs that they're among the most likely of candidates for a "surprise" early exit from the NCAAs.
Maryland followed up its fine 75-66 road win over previously undefeated Duke with a 79-71 home win on Sunday over fellow giant-killer Georgia Tech. tNick Caner-Medley has stepped up his all-around performance the past couple of weeks for the Terrapins while the Yellow Jackets labor to make the pieces fit into a seamless team. It's no guarantee that when bB.J. Elder returns for GT that things will snap back into place quickly, if at all. Other than a disastrous home blowout loss to N.C. State, UM hasn't really misstepped too badly all season.
After fighting their way to victory game after game, Syracuse gave up an early 22-5 lead on the road at Pittsburgh and lost 76-69. The Orange degenerated into a two-man team on offense -- gGerry McNamara(26p3a6r) and fHakim Warrick(25p3a) were great but they got no help -- and the 2-3 zone had all kinds of trouble keeping the Panther front line, especially fChevy Troutman(18p9r), off the offensive boards. Rutgers ran-and-shot past SU last week but couldn't hold onto their 17-point lead and now Pitt dominated the boards on them this week, 39-28. (Remember who beat the Orange in last year's tournament: Alabama.)
Villanova continued to look like a solid team, beating Notre Dame 65-60 and then routing Rutgers on the road, 94-61. The Wildcats' GGF engine (gAllan Ray, gRandy Foye and fCurtis Sumpter) is clicking on all cylinders. Meanwhile, the Irish rebounded with a nice home win, 78-74 over Connecticut. The best thing about the ND win was that its front line, cTorin Francis(19p7r) and fDennis Latimore(12p9r) led the way (overcoming 6-for-23 shooting from three-point land by their trigger-happy guard trio). UConn looks like a Top-25 team in person, but they keep managing to find a way to lose big game after big game.
Kansas appears to be the default winner of the Big 12. Texas is a shambles now that it's not much more than gDaniel Gibson shooting and everyone else following. Oklahoma State can't seem to find enough easy offense when elite teams throw a zone at it. After beating OSU 67-57 at the start of the week, Oklahoma gave up its advantage with a loss on the road at Iowa State, 74-66.
Michigan State may be the last obstacle in the way of Illinois' perfect season when it hosts the Illini on Tuesday. Duke gets to enter its name for submission into the Final Four Cadre when it visits Wake Forest on Tuesday (in the first of two regular-season meetings). On Wednesday, Cincinnati visits Louisville for Round Two of the only matchup that matters in Conference USA. (UofL came back from 17-down on the road to win the first game, 69-66.) Gonzaga can make things right in the WCC standings with two home wins this week: Thursday against St. Mary's and Saturday against Santa Clara. Florida has tMatt Walsh back and gets to find out how real is real when it visits Mississippi State on Tuesday and then hosts Alabama on Saturday. Don't look now, but 11-7 Stanford has a chance to move into second-place in the Pac-10 with a strong week with road games at Arizona State on Thursday and then Arizona on Saturday.
Apogee
Everyone is at least at the halfway point in their conference races now. Many things already look settled and the league leaders can hit cruise control for the second half. Illinois certainly has the Big 10 well in hand. (In fact, this Saturday's home game with Wisconsin is the last real obstacle in their quest for an undefeated regular season.) North Carolina is on top of the ACC standings at 8-1, ahead of Wake Forest and Duke at 7-2; but on the national scene, it's the Demon Deacons who have home wins over the other two conference/national elite rivals. UNC visits Duke on Wednesday in search of an elite win to legitimize all of its non-elite blowouts. At 9-0, Boston College is a game ahead of 8-1 Syracuse in the Big East race. The Eagles still have plenty of tough games left, though -- in fact, their undefeated season faces a stern test this week on Tuesday at resurgent Notre Dame. The Orange keep managing to rescue victory from defeat; they keep winning but haven't been able to coast to victory for weeks now. 8-0 Kansas is firmly in control of the Big 12 by default as the rest of the elite teams have fallen away. 8-1 Louisville beat Cincinnati for the second time and is firmly in control of Conference USA. This may finally be the year that coach Rick Pitino resumes his place at the upper echelon of college hoops -- looks like he beat Bob Knight to it -- as the Cardinals are shaping into a team that appears capable of a Final Four run. 8-0 Kentucky is cruising through a weak SEC field, but the Wildcats have yet to play any of the league's semi-elite. Arizona has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Washington (both 9-2) at the moment, but those two appear headed for a rubber game showdown in the Pac-10 tournament. It wasn't easy, but Gonzaga came back from down 12 at home against St. Mary's to win 68-63 and regain a share of the lead in the WCC at 7-2. 7-0 Utah is rolling over the riff-raff in the Mountain West; they'll win the league race for sure but actual league supremacy won't be determined until they face New Mexico now that fDanny Granger is back in action.
6-3 George Washington hasn't yet erased the two buzzer-beater home losses that put it in a hole in the Atlantic 10 race. St. Joseph's is 8-1 in conference play, but in the bigger picture, the 11-8 Hawks aren't really better than the 14-5 Colonials. 12-0 Pacific is well ahead in the weak Big West. 10-2 Wichita State still has its nose in front of a strong field in the MVC. 10-2 Wisconsin-Milwaukee split with second-place Wisconsin-Green Bay so they'll likely settle the score in the Horizon League tournament final. 9-2 Nevada is a game ahead of 8-3 UTEP in the wacky WAC, but the Miners won the first meeting on the road and those two meet again in El Paso on Saturday. Off the screen, 12-0 Vermont is cruising away in the lowly America East and 11-1 Old Dominion is coasting in the Colonial. (Both teams belong in the NCAAs, but because their leagues are so weak, they're not likely to get an at-large bid; especially ODU, which isn't even a part of false-hope BRACKET BUSTER SATURDAY in two weeks.) 11-0 Davidson is firmly in control of the nothing that is the woeful Southern Conference.
Iowa -- the only team that came close to knocking off undefeated Illinois -- had its hopes go down the drain when gPierre Pierce was dismissed from the team for off-court troubles.
It's a big week for Connecticut, which has a good chance to use its frontcourt muscle to win at Syracuse on Monday, but its guards won't be able to run with North Carolina when the Tar Heels visit Stoors on Sunday. Florida has a good chance to upset Kentucky when it visits Rupp Arena on Tuesday.
Now that we've passed the midway point of the regular season, things will accelerate as everyone heads home.
Planting Seeds
In the pursuit of a top seed in your own private regional, Illinois has as close to a lock as is possible. The Illini dispatched Wisconsin at home 70-59. The only (barely) credible obstacle remaining in the way of an undefeated regular season is this Saturday's road game at Iowa. Yes, the Hawkeyes took things into overtime in Champaign, but that was then. This is now, and Iowa no longer has its best player, gPierre Pierce, and even though their attack is more balanced without him, there isn't enough firepower remaining to complete the deed. Still, it's the December win over Wake Forest that's the real credential for UofI, not the undefeated record. Even though it doesn't deserve it, it looks like Kansas has an inside track on a top seed of its own, thanks mostly to Jayhawks' road win over Kentucky (and the fact that their conference rivals have all fallen away on their own). Wake Forest is already two-for-two against North Carolina and Duke, so the Demon Deacons have a leg up on the others for their own No. 1 nod. Sentiment being what it is, there will be a strong (subjective) urge to give UNC one as well. People like a good story, and the three-way jump shift last year of coaches at elite schools (Roy Williams from Kansas to UNC, Bill Self from Illinois to Kansas, and Bruce Weber from Southern Illinois to Illinois) would be great copy if all three had top seeds and then found their way to the Final Four in St. Louis. [And Skip Prosser had better not falter or else Wake could be on the outside looking in -- undeservedly -- as Living Legend Mike Krzyzewski ("he fell and then he rose again") could step right in as the Fourth Beatle.] Duke upped its chances with a great win over UNC 71-70 in Durham, but gave some of its juice back by stumbling in OT, 99-92, at Maryland. (It's actually the previous loss to the Terrapins, 75-66 in Durham, that hurts more. UNC has the explanable loss to Santa Clara; Wake has two OT buzzer-beater losses at Florida State and Georgia Tech; so an OT road loss at Maryland is right in line with those, but a home loss to an up-and-down team isn't. Still, if the Blue Devils beat the Demon Deacons at home on Sunday, we won't stop hearing how the Genius has done more with less this year. Don't get me wrong, Duke does deserve a No. 1 seed at this point, but at the expense of Kansas, not Wake.)
UNC's win at Connecticut doesn't qualify as an FFC (Final Four Cadre) scalp, but it was nice to see. UConn put together its best week with a great win on the road at Syracuse on Monday and a solid performance (even without gRashad Anderson) on Sunday against the Tar Heels. Carolina had trouble scoring point blank against the Huskie shotblockers but the versatility of fJawad Williams to step out and hit some 3s as well as gRashad McCants' perservence to keep on shooting through the misses on a subpar day gave them enough balance to break open a working margin they nursed to a 77-70 win. Notre Dame stopped Boston College's undefeated run with a 68-65 win on Tuesday. gChris Thomas(19p9a Tuesday; 16p7a Saturday) is having a fine senior season, but it was the outside shooting of tColin Falls(23p) that did in the Eagles (who have no three-point attack to speak of) and gChris Quinn(25p) nearly made the difference in the Irish's 66-68 loss at Pittsburgh. The wind abandoned the sails of Louisville in a big way. Their 24-point scoring margin looked formidable only a week ago, yet they looked positively helpless losing 85-68 at home to Memphis. The Cardinals have talent and depth, but they don't have a Grade A point guard who would refuse to allow such lackluster play for an entire game.
Yes, the ACC has a real chance to garner three No. 1 seeds in the NCAAs, but the Big East is where the action is this season. Seven teams (Syracuse, Boston College, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Villanova and Georgetown) figure to get bids and as many as six are good enough to be Sweet 16. In the ACC, Maryland is up this week (but who knows whether it will last); B.J. Elder is back on court for Georgia Tech (but coach Paul Hewitt insists on giving minutes to fJeremis Smith and gMario West ahead of fRa'Sean Dickey and tAnthony Morrow when the latter two provide the only chance for the Yellow Jackets to regain the style of last year). N.C. State doesn't figure to make the NCAAs at this point. Conference USA has several teams of near equal talent but the overall quality doesn't quite rate Sweet 16 calibre. The top four in the SEC (Kentucky, Alabama, Florida and Mississippi State) are only coasting ahead of the mediocre rest of the pack; they haven't been able to spur each other onto a higher plane of competition. In the Big 12, Oklahoma State has inserted freshman gJamesOn Curry into the starting lineup, which has helped diminish their vulnerabilty to zone defenses. Meanwhile, Oklahoma is sliding back to its proper level of good-not-great and Texas is off the charts completely at this point. In the Big 10, Michigan State has done a good job of maintaining its own level despite soft competition overall. In the Pac-10, Washington seems to be losing focus while Arizona is firming up. The competitiveness of the WCC should actually help Gonzaga come tournament time; we know (and they do) that they can compete with the elite teams this year, but they shouldn't be caught by surprise by upstart waterbugs like in years past since they've had to deal with such teams in conference play this season.
The race for what few at-large bids may be in the offing this year is in full swing. George Washington paid back its one glaring conference loss with an 80-63 win over Richmond. The Colonials have no worries about making it into the NCAAs even if they falter in the Atlantic 10 tournament. In a throwback to an era gone by, Boston University upset Vermont 61-55 at home in a clash of the top two teams in the America East: it was a true battle of big men as Terrier cRashad Bell posted 29p7r against Catamount cTaylor Coppenrath's 37p13r (on 13-for-24 shooting). Pacific escaped 64-63 at arch rival Utah State to remain unbeaten in the Big West. Nevada took a 62-60 road win at UTEP to secure its lead in the WAC. Those wins are nice, but without a follow up victory in this Saturday's BRACKET BUSTER games, any of those teams might find itself in the NIT. ESPN got 64 teams this year to hold open their schedules in hopes of getting a game that will "earn them a ticket to the NCAAs". Don't count on it. Only 11 of the 32 games will even get network TV airplay. Check out the center matchup of cTaylor Coppenrath vs cNick Fazekas in Vermont at Nevada; also tune in for the track meet when UTEP visits Pacific. Bucknell isn't part of ESPN's false hope fantasy, but the Bison already have that road win at Pittsburgh and they get another chance to make a bigger-than-BUSTER mark when they play at Villanova on Tuesday. The one team with absolutely no margin for error appears to be Old Dominion; the Monarchs have a talented player in cAlex Loughton and are capable of a first-round splash if they get there, but their strength of schedule is weak and they have no marquee wins out of conference; their only ticket in appears to be winning the Colonial tournament.
After falling at home to Connecticut, Syracuse picked up the pace, literally, as tJosh Pace had 21p7r5a in their 90-75 road win over Villanova on Saturday. They'll need more of the same to beat surging Pittsburgh Monday night and then in their road showdown with conference leader Boston College on Saturday. Mississippi State will get a true measure of itself when it travels to Rupp Arena to face Kentucky on Saturday as well.
Don't believe the hype.
BRACKET BUSTER SATURDAY on-campus
Bottom-Uppers
It's never easy, but Boston College just keeps on posting the Ws, no matter the opponent. The Eagles' 65-60 win over Syracuse secured their place atop the Big East standings and, with a 22-1 record including 11-1 in the most competitive conference in the country, how can you not give them a No. 1 seed? fJared Dudley and fCraig Smith are no Ernie-and-Bernie, but they're the best pair of forwards in the country this year. They sandwiched fHakim Warrick in the paint while the perimeter defenders harrassed gGerry McNamara into 2-for-11 shooting on three-pointers. The Orange are 0-4 now against BC, Pitt and UConn. Duke rebounded from its loss at Virginia Tech with a feverish second-half performance to run away from Wake Forest 102-92 in Durham. gJ.J. Redick had a career-high 38p as the Blue Devils outscored the Demon Deacons 60-48 in the second half and led by as much as 88-69. Wake continues to have lapses that cost it dearly in games against the ultra elite. After its loss to South Carolina, Kentucky had seven players in double-figures in its 94-78 rout of Mississippi State. Still, you don't know what you're going to get with the Wildcats from one game to the next. (That's a recipe for an untimely upset in the tournament.)
If it were an event with real value in helping decide who deserves an at-large bid, BRACKET BUSTER SATURDAY would feature matchups between middle-of-the-pack teams from the major conferences facing off against first- and second-place teams from the mid-majors. We actually had a game like that last week, but it wasn't part of the made-for-TV charade. Bucknell, which pulled off the one unexplanable upset in the preseason when it won at Pittsburgh 69-66 in January, tried its luck again on the road at Villanova. No dice. The Wildcats pummelled the Bison, 89-41. This is not a year when mid-majors have done well against the Big Boys; it ought not be a year when mid-majors should to expect any at-large bids; it won't be a year when mid-majors pull off many upsets in the NCAA tournament. Except for the one Bucknell-Pitt score, no team from below the top 10 conferences has a win over a Top-25 opponent. (Utah still doesn't have one.) Still, the BRACKET BUSTER games are billed as a way for mid-major teams to position themselves for an at-large bid in case they fail to win their conference tournament. At most, only two of the BRACKET BUSTER games even mattered on that level. Nevada's cNick Fazekas(31p14r) was fantastic in the Wolf Pack's 74-64 home win over Vermont. The 7-0, 6-11, 6-9 front line was able to limit the Catamounts' cTaylor Coppenrath to 18p6r, but not even 6-7 tMo Charlo could do much to stop 5-11 gT.J. Sorrentine(24p5a). Both teams looked good. 20-2 Pacific gets a lot of mileage out of last year's first-round upset of Providence and this year's undefeated record in the Big West (but consider that second-place Cal State-Northridge is atrocious). Their easy 73-66 home win over UTEP was nice, but the WAC was only 3-7 overall in Saturday's event, by far the worst performance. The MAC (7-5), MVC (5-4), Sun Belt (3-1) and Horizon (6-3) all acquitted themselves well enough. Miami(Ohio) played solid halfcourt defense in its 65-58 home win over Wichita State; Akron took out Niagara 74-68; Oral Roberts did well winning on the road 86-76 at SW Missouri State; Creighton was 20-for-30 from three-point range in its 100-65 drubbing of Chattanooga. Over half of the 64 teams involved don't even have winning records inside their own conferences -- there's no point in pretending those matchups have a bid on the line. Only 11 games got the nod for network TV; the bulk of it is just ESPN's flexing its muscles over the landscape of college hoops. Home teams were 21-11 overall, so dont' read too much into any of the results.
Kansas' slip-ups last week have allowed this Sunday's meeting with Oklahoma State to become a showdown for the lead in the Big 12. Washington is still within reach of first place in the Pac-10 if it can win when it hosts Arizona on Saturday (but, like Wake Forest, the Huskies can't seem to avoid lapses). Kentucky visits Alabama on Saturday in their showdown for the overall lead in the SEC (both teams feature young guards running their teams and inconsistency rules). Strange as it may seem, 16-10 Memphis could be in first place in Conference USA with wins at Charlotte on Wednesday and at home against Louisville on Saturday. Injuries have ruined its shot at the regular season race, but New Mexico has a chance to salvage the season if it can win at home against Utah Monday night. Believers in the East Coast Media Bias (ECMB to you, Tony) will have their eyes on the intersectional meeting when UCLA (fourth-place in the Pac-10) visits Notre Dame (fifth-place in the Big East) on Sunday.
At least one team did post a perfect record: Savannah State completed its season at 0-28, tying the all-time worst mark of '92 Prairie View. Call them Deacon Blues.
Unbalanced Perspective
Give Illinois all props for not taking a game off. Certainly, the Illini are the best team in the Big 10 with their undefeated record. Kentucky's 13-1 record is by far the best in the SEC and the Wildcats sealed the deal with an enthralling 78-71 win on the road at Alabama. gPatrick Sparks was on-again with 26p on 7-for-10 shooting on 3ptrs -- when he's giving them easy points from the outside, they're Final Four-calibre with the level of defense they play and their overall individual talent -- but he's not always on and they can still struggle on offense. Besides those two teams, you can make an argument that the league leader in every other major conference isn't really the best team. North Carolina sits atop the ACC standings but is 0-2 against Wake Forest and Duke on the road. Despite the lopsided scoring margins, if they don't beat Duke at home on Sunday (or win the ACC tournament), they don't deserve a No.1 seed just for being the best blowout team. Boston College still has a one-game lead in the Big East, but right now I'd pick Connecticut as the toughest out in that league. Kansas and Oklahoma State played one of the best games all season when the Jayhawks (on 66% shooting) survived at home against the Cowboys (on 59% shooting), 81-79. OSU thought it had the game won when it led 74-67 with a couple of minutes left on a jumper by gJohn Lucas, but the Cowboys didn't stay focused and it slipped away. KU leads the Big 12 standings, but it's Oklahoma, thanks to a 71-63 win over the Jayhawks on Monday, that is 2-1 among the top 3 teams. Gonzaga won the WCC title, but it too only split home-and-home with second-place St. Mary's. Washington stayed focused for the entire game with big things on the line and the home crowd in support in its 93-85 win over Arizona. Even so, the Huskies still have to close with two road wins just to earn a share of the Pac-10 title. Louisville still clings to the lead in Conference USA, but the Cardinals haven't looked good in three weeks and their 30% shooting in their hideous 53-44 "win" over Memphis certainly didn't add to their allure. In fact, steady Charlotte is tied for first place and can claim it outright in their road showdown in Louisvillle on Thursday. Utah has locked up the regular season title in the Mountain West, but a healthy New Mexico was able to hand them their first conference loss on Monday, 65-54. St. Joseph's is the league-leader in the Atlantic 10, but the Hawks still need a win over George Washington on the road on Tuesday to make it legitimate.
Southern Illinois wrapped up the MVC title with a solid 65-55 win over Wichita State; those two teams split during the regular season but at least the MVC plays a full home-and-home schedule. Holy Cross crushed Bucknell 69-54 in their rematch -- again, they split on the season, but a balanced schedule determined the Crusaders to be the true champ. Rider pulled out a 113-106 overtime victory in the final regular season game to gain a split with Niagara and a share of the Metro Atlantic title. Despite their 1-7 preseason record, Davidson turned it on in conference play and completed a 16-0 season to win the Southern Conference title.
Villanova and Pittsburgh were being talked about
last week as "bubble teams". That's crazy. The Wildcats completed the win they left on the table the first time out,
beating Boston College, 79-70. With their earlier rout of
Kansas, that's two victories over teams who might very well get No.1 seeds. Nobody
with that on their resume is on the bubble. Pitt's "problem" is the bad losses to teams like
Bucknell, St. John's and now being swept by
West Virginia. The Panthers don't always get contributions from anyone
other than fChevy Troutman and bCarl Krauser and they can sometimes struggle to get enough easy points on jumpers. That
said, they've swept Syracuse and split with
Connecticut (which isn't something that any mid-majors could pull off).
Indiana is a true bubble team and helped its case tremendously with a 78-74 overtime win over Michigan State. LSU knocked off Alabama 61-59, dominating the Tide on the boards 45-27. Don't look, but UCLA went on the road and handled Notre Dame easily, 75-65. It's way too early to get happy, but Georgia Tech finally had the box score I've been looking for all year in their 76-72 road win over Miami(Florida): gJack(21p4a),gElder(15p),fDickey(12p6r),tMorrow(12p4r); (but the 60-56 home loss to Duke hurt their cause).
It's tournament time for the smaller conferences. For the most part, they're pure: win and you're in, lose and you're out of the NCAAs. Gonzaga is in regardless, but more critical is whether St. Mary's can beat host Santa Clara in the WCC semifinal; the Gaels aren't a lock for an at-large but if they lose to anyone other than the 'Zags, it's hello NIT. Southern Illinois (MVC), Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Horizon) and Vermont (America East) have probably done enough to deserve at-large bids but if Gonzaga goofs up this week or Utah (Mountain West) or Pacific (Big West) do next week and a team with no business in the Dance gets an automatic invite, even these mid-major regular season champs could be on the outside looking in.
Mad For Thad
Washington was unable to come through on the road in its final game at Stanford (even with its leading scorer tDan Grunfeld out for the season) and thus lost a share of the Pac-10 title: Arizona won it outright. The third-place Cardinal beat both teams at home this season, but the Wildcats' one-game margin came via their road win at fourth-place UCLA.
North Carolina needed an 11-0 run at the end to escape with a 75-73 win at home over Duke. The Tar Heels won the ACC regular season title in the process, thanks to the new unbalanced scheduled. None of the three ACC elite teams was able to break through on the road against the others, but head-to-head, Duke turned in the better performances on the whole and Carolina was the least of the three, going 1-2 against Duke and Wake Forest. Still, all three teams deserve No.1 Seeds in the NCAA tournament (but we'll see who gets the one that belongs to Duke). An ankle injury to gKeith Langford took him out of the game early on and the Jayhawks fell on the road at Missouri, 72-68. That meant Oklahoma claimed the Big 12 title via its head-to-head win over KU a couple of weeks back. With Langford uncertain for the Big 12 tournament, the Jayhawks may not get the No.1 Seed they were expecting after all. Meanwhile, Florida eeked out a 53-52 win at home over Kentucky. The Gators veteran trio of gAnthony Roberson, fDavid Lee and tMatt Walsh have some athletic help from the underclassmen this season -- maybe this time they can get out of the first round of the NCAA tournament. Pittsburgh blitzed Boston College 72-50 on the road, knocking out the Eagles' hopes for a No.1 Seed. The fourth No.1 Seed is still up for grabs and will depend on the outcome of the major conference tournaments.
Syracuse lost at Connecticut 88-70, falling to 0-5 against the Big East high-profile teams. Not everyone can sandwich fHakim Warrick with two quality big men like those teams can, though. The bigger worry is that, now that gGerry McNamara has been forced back into running the point, his offense has suffered. Once they get outside the conference again, things could snap back to normal. Oklahoma State just seems to be a little too soft defensively and offensively compared to last year's tough-as-nails squad. The way the Cowboys let the game slip away against Texas in their 74-73 home loss was disappointing.
St. Joseph's had no trouble with George Washington on the road, winning 71-56. The Hawks' ball-control game frustrated the Colonials, who want to get out and run at every chance no matter the situation. GW may be in danger of not making it into the NCAAs if it doesn't win the Atlantic 10 tournament -- the league isn't that strong and they're not even the regular-season champs. That unexpected win in the BB&T CLASSIC back in December was a long time ago now. After posting a perfect 16-0 regular season in conference play, Davidson fell in the Southern Conference semifinals to UNC-Greensboro, 73-68 (and there's no at-large bid waiting for the Wildcats, either). Instead, it was Chattanooga, a fine team actually, that won the automatic bid winning the tournament on its home court. Central Florida won the TOP OF THE WORLD CLASSIC back in November but then promptly dug a hole for itself by losing a December conference game at home to Gardner-Webb. The rematch didn't come until late February, but the Golden Knights paid back the debt and then won the rubber game in the Atlantic Sun final.
Gonzaga and St. Mary's made it to the WCC final, so no extra at-large bid was wasted. Southern Illinois and Wichita State both lost in the MVC semifinals -- that could be trouble for both of them. Nothing else too terribly troubling went down in the lesser conference tournaments. The Patriot (Holy Cross-Bucknell) and America East (Vermont-Northeastern) held up their finals for this week (Friday and Saturday, respectively) to please the TV gods.
The Big Boys put it on the line this week. At stake at the very top is a No.1 Seed, probably for the Big East tournament winner (but maybe not). Pacific won the Big West at 18-0 with a five-game lead; likewise, Utah's 13-1 record was three games better than second place in the Mountain West. If either of those teams screws up and doesn't win its conference tournament, a deserving at-large team will stay home. Six teams tied for second place in the MAC at 11-6 -- no telling which team will emerge there (but no second bid is headed the way of that conference). Still needing to do work to get in: UTEP must make the WAC final; New Mexico may need to win the MWC to get in. Georgia Tech lucked into a nice draw in the ACC tournament: a first-round bye, a quarterfinal matchup with Virginia Tech, the possibility that the D.C. crowd might help Maryland knock off North Carolina before they get there, and only having to play either Wake Forest or Duke, not both. Meanwhile, N.C. State has a Thursday game with Florida State, and then would likely have to go through Wake, Duke and UNC in succession -- that's a tougher path than it will be to make the Final Four.
Jugger-naughts
Illinois lost its perfect season and then won the
Big 10 tournament in Chicago by decision instead of knockout. (The Illini's
enthusiasm was tempered the last two games by the sudden death of the mother of coach Bruce Weber.)
The ACC tournament was supposed to feature three No.1 seeds battling it out, but none of
those three teams even met. Wake Forest bowed out 81-65 to
N.C. State in its first game with gChris Paul sitting out a one-game suspension for his
low-blow sucker punch to NCSU's tJulius Hodge a week earlier. North Carolina almost got
bounced by Clemson in its first game, trailing 58-71 with 9 minutes left before gRaymond Felton(29p7r) put the
team on his back and led them to an 88-81 victory. Then, in the semifinals, the Tar Heels succumbed to
Georgia Tech 78-75, thanks to gWill Bynum(35p). Ho hum:
Duke won another ACC tourney crown, beating 11-seed Virginia,
7th-seed N.C. State and then 5th-seed Georgia Tech 69-64 in a dreary final where 39% shooting outlasted 30% shooting. (The
Blue Devils did wind up with a No.1 seed, but it was by default not by acclaim.)
In the Big East, it was Boston College with the
chance to earn a top seed, with surging Connecticut having an outside chance if they
could lay an impressive enough defeat on BC in the final. Nope. BC was bounced in their first game as well, this time by
back-from-the-dead West Virginia. The Mountaineers have rediscovered the three-point
stroke that put them on the map in the preseason. After blitzing
Providence 82-59 in the first round, they built a 25-point lead on
BC early in the second half of their quarterfinal. It was only through a long sustained effort that the Eagles were even
able to make it a respectable final score, 78-72. BC has essentially no three-point attack, so it's very hard for them to
play catch-up because they can only really score points two at a time. UConn muddied its way past Georgetown in its
first game but had its hat handed to it by an energetic Syracuse team (playing yet
another game in front of a New York crowd) who went on to take the crown. An ankle injury kept gKeith Langford out of the
lineup for Kansas, which fell in the Big 12
semifinals to eventual champ Oklahoma State, 78-75. OSU didn't have to play KU at full
strength (or Oklahoma at all) yet its total margin of victory for three games was only
nine points.
Arizona's late-season surge had the Wildcats hearing some talk of a No.1 seed -- and they properly routed their first two opponents in the Pac-10 tournament, winning more decisively than anyone else in the conversation. Meanwhile, Washington needed overtime to beat Arizona State 95-90(OT) in the quarterfinals and held off Stanford 66-63 in the semis. The final, which was the best-played game between contenders anywhere over the weekend, looked to be going UofA's way behind gSalim Stoudamire's 37-point performance, but in the end it was UW's gNate Robinson scoring on a key drive through the lane that propelled the Huskies to a 81-72 win. It was impressive enought that it's Washington who garnered a No.1 seed (despite not winning their regular season title). Kentucky had dominated the SEC regular season, beating all of the major players at least once. But in the SEC tournament (also known as The Kentucky Invitational, thanks to some 20,000 UK fans taking over the Georgia Dome in Atlanta), it was LSU making a great impression, pushing the Wildcats to overtime in the semifinals before losing 78-79(OT) and Florida even moreso. The Gators turned in three superb performances over the weekend: they pulled away from Mississippi State in the quarterfinals 80-64 by shutting down gShane Power's easy baskets and limiting fLawrence Roberts to 8p5r; they held off Alabama in the semis 68-62 by silencing gEarnest Shelton's perimeter game; and in the final, they dominated Kentucky 70-53. Against UK, UofF realized that only thing you have to do is stop gPatrick Sparks(4p2a); it's not easy because they run double-screens to free him but if you can take him out of the offense, there's no one left who can make much happen. The athletic ability of Florida's underclassmen allows the veterans to play more effectively than ever before. 10 days ago, senior fDavid Lee had never beaten Kentucky in his entire career (0-10); now he's done it twice inside a fortnight. The Gators came away from the weekend looking as good as anybody around -- one of the very few teams, in fact, that was still making their jump shots after three games in three days.
UTEP, New Mexico, George Washington and Utah State were all bubble teams that probably needed to win their conference tournaments to get in ... and they did. Top-seeded Nevada, playing on its home floor no less, lost on a put-back at the buzzer in the first round of the WAC tournament; that paved the way for second-seeded UTEP to coast to the crown. Second-seeded New Mexico faced off against top-seed Utah in a classic Mountain West final. It was like a high school game in that the star player on each team was so much better than everyone else on the floor that as soon as either one touched the ball, that was it. The Utes' cAndrew Bogut had 19p/16r against double-teams all night; the Lobos' fDanny Granger is too good of a ball-handler to allow himself to be double-teamed -- he led his team in scoring(28p), rebounding(11r) and assists(3a) and iced the game with four clutch free throws in a 60-56 victory. Stellar. George Washington got revenge on St. Joseph's in the Atlantic 10 final, 76-67, garnering that league's lone NCAA bid. Utah State had outplayed Pacific twice in the regular season but wound up with two buzzer-beater losses; in the Big West final, the Aggies won 65-52.
Iowa garnered a bid, thanks to missed free throws by gAlan Anderson of Michigan State in their 71-69 quarterfinal win, and despite a running three-pointer at the buzzer by fAlando Tucker of Wisconsin in their semifinal loss, 56-59. Notre Dame's first-round loss to Rutgers (and its earlier home loss to UCLA) knocked it out of the NCAA picture. Likewise, DePaul's quarterfinal buzzer-beater loss to UAB probably determined the single bid available for those two teams. Not even playing in D.C. could help Maryland, which lost its opening round game to Clemson. Memphis nearly completely turned around its season, thanks to having the Conference USA tournament on its home floor. The Tigers knocked off Charlotte in the quarters and trailed Louisville in the final by two when gDarius Washington was fouled attempting a three-pointer with :00 left on the clock; he only made 1-for-3 and sudden victory became sudden defeat, 74-75. Playing on their home floor wasn't enough to save Oral Roberts from gPierre Dukes' game-winning three-pointer that sent 12-18 Oakland to The Dance instead. (Ever wonder what happened to the little kid who sang The Oscar Mayer Wiener Song? I think he's coaching Oakland!) Holy Cross had a 16-game win streak going and the conference tournament final at their place, but instead it was Bucknell that raced out to a 38-20 lead at the half, only to hang on for dear life in a 61-57 win.
Overall, no real qualms with the teams that are in and the teams that are out and the seeded that people got. I don't see how Nothern Iowa, fourth-place in the MVC and losers in the quarterfinals of the conference tournament, got in ahead of Miami(Ohio), regular season champs in the MAC but losers in the tourney semis, when Miami beat the MVC second-place team, Wichita State, in their BRACKET BUSTER game. The BRACKET BUSTER results showed those two leagues even with each other at the top after all was said and done; how the MVC got 3 teams and the MAC only 1 is a mystery. (Too bad Buffalo couldn't pull off being the MAC's lone representative -- it would have been that school's first appearance in an NCAA tournament in any sport; but the Bulls blew a 57-38 lead, designed a crazy play for their 6-10 center to take a three-pointer at the end instead of the Conference Player of the Year, gTony Battle, and lost 80-79 in overtime on a put-back at the buzzer by Ohio University.)
Illinois won't have to travel far on the road to the national championship. Thanks to the Pod System and the right of first-preference, the Illini play in Indianapolis, Chicago and then on to St. Louis. Both North Carolina and Duke get to play the first two rounds in Charlotte. (Does gChris Paul realize how much he's cost Wake Forest with his cheap shot against tJulius Hodge? And, by the way, that's not the only dirty play he's made this year -- I've seen at least four of five -- it's just the only one that was so blatant on camera that the TV commentators had to mention it ... and, remember, the referees on court didn't catch it.) Oklahoma State opens in Oklahoma City -- nice. The NCAA Seeding Committee put together some fun first-rounders: Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky (coached by former UK guard Travis Ford) and then possibly a second-round bluegrass showdown for the winner against Cincinnati, all in nearby Indianapolis. Vermont's magic season may end in the first round in Worcester, MA against Syracuse, but if so, there'd be no better way to go out for the seniors who put the program on the map and coach Tom Brennan (and the teams mirror each other pretty well: fHakim Warrick vs cTaylor Coppenrath, gGerry McNamara vs gT.J. Sorrentine and even tJosh Pace vs fMartin Klimes ... it could happen.) Bring your umbrella to Cleveland 'cause it'll be raining threes when West Virginia and Creighton meet in the first round. In the second round, have the first aid handy if Boston College and Alabama meet in a lodero showdown.
In the NIT, how about Notre Dame, Memphis, Miami(Ohio) and Arizona State?
"Sucker!"
Even on paper, the first-round game between Vermont and Syracuse in Worcester, MA had magic written all over it. If you caught ESPN's The Season, which followed the Vermont basketball team around, you got a sense of just what big local heroes those guys all are: the coach's radio show is listed to all over the state, gP.J. Sorrentine was an area star who made news just by enrolling at UVM, and the coach had already announced his plan to retire at the end of this, his best season, after a 24-year career. Winning the America East and making the NCAAs would have been a good enough ending to the story, but instead they made something even better. Vermont's 60-57 overtime win over Syracuse in the first round was one of the all-time great moments in the history of the NCAA tournament. Like Princeton-Georgetown almost was in 1989 and then Princeton-UCLA actually was in 1996, here was a signature victory that will forever mark a player, a coach, a school and entire state. Coach Brennan said in the postgame press conference, "I just watched a kid earn himself a million dollars," referring to Sorrentine's monstrous three-pointer that sealed the victory -- the player had waved off the coach's play and called his own number. I'm not so sure he'll be a first-round draft choice like his coach believes, but what we did see was heroes turn into legends right before our eyes. Those guys will be remembered for that game for the rest of their lives. Who cares that they didn't have enough left for a second miracle against Michigan State.
I keep saying it: It's A Guard's World, After All. None of the top five power forwards made it through to the Sweet 16 (and only two even made it out of the first round). UAB turned on the press against LSU and completely took fBrandon Bass out of the game, rolling to an 82-68 win in the first round. fHakim Warrick did all he could for Syracuse, but couldn't overcome the magic of the moment against Vermont in Round 1. fWayne Simien was solid for Kansas, but Bucknell's 64-63 first-round upset proved that the Bison's January win at Pittsburgh was no anomaly (and KU's less-than-dominant performance all season was no misrepresentation, either). fLawrence Roberts was effectively played to a draw by cShelden Williams in Mississippi State's second-round 55-63 loss to Duke in Charlotte; it was gDaniel Ewing(22p)'s stepping up while gShane Power(3p) was shut down that was the real key. fCraig Smith(25p5r) was great for Boston College, but it was slahsers gJoah Tucker and gEd McCants who made the big plays in Wisconsin-Milwaukee's thrilling 83-75 win in the second round.
In fact, Wisconsin-Milwaukee registered the best pair of wins of anyone making it to the Sweet 16, beating Alabama 83-73 in the first round and then Boston College in Round 2. The Panthers' full-court press hounded freshman gRonald Poole into a poor performance in Cleveland, OH. Freshman gDaniel Gibson also had a bad game in Round 1 in Texas' loss to Nevada in Indianapolis. A couple of other freshmen pgs, though, were more than fine in their first taste of the NCAA pressure cooker. gJamesOn Curry was excellent down the stretch in Oklahoma State's 85-77 win over Southern Illinois in the second round, and gRajon Rondo played with lots of poise in guiding Kentucky to a 69-60 win over tough Cincinnati. The difference in the latter two cases? OSU was playing in Oklahoma City and UK, which always plays in front of a home crowd (except in conference road games), was playing in Indianapolis. Having the crowd with you makes a big difference when it's your first time.
The anticipated coach's angle to this year's NCAA tournament has been swapped around. The Bruce Weber -> Bill Self -> Roy Williams angle is missing a key element now that Kansas is out of the picture. Now neither coach will have to face off against his former players in a high-stakes showdown. There is still one connection between Illinois and North Carolina, though: when both sets of junior stars on the two teams were freshmen, Illinois and UNC met in the ACC-BIG 10 CHALLENGE: the Illini routed the Tar Heels 92-65 (in Matt Doherty's final season as head coach). Both Pittsburgh and UCLA bowed out in Round 1, so the long-shot meeting of Bruin coach Ben Howland facing his former Pitt players never got off the ground. Instead, it's the Return of The Return Of The Kings story line that began in the 2001-02 season when both Bob Knight and Rick Pitino re-entered the college coaching ranks. It's the first berth in the Sweet 16 for Texas Tech and Louisville since they've been back (and there's a real possibility the two teams could meet in the Albuquerque Regional final on Saturday).
Louisville looked as good as its stats in drubbing Georgia Tech 76-54 in the second round. The Cardinals, on paper, were the equal of any of the other top seeds in the tournament. The question about them was strength of schedule, the dubious quality of Conference USA, and that troubling 85-68 loss at home to Memphis midway through the regular season. But they escaped with the C-USA tournament title (thanks to Darius Washington's missed free throws) and Memphis is still rolling over people at home in the NIT. The Cardinals will be more than willing to run with Washington in their semifinal matchup with the Huskies on Thursday. UofL plays better defense, but UW has all those athletic scorers who just keep on coming. It'll be great to watch; if it's close, go with the coach in the tailored suit.
Utah's cAndrew Bogut has proved his worth by spurring the Utes to a berth into the Sweet 16 with wins over UTEP and Oklahoma. He's not quite a star of the calibre to lead his team to a Final Four berth (so Player of the Year is not on the table for me) and it'll be especially difficult for him to have the overall impact against Kentucky in the semifinals when the Wildcats have so many talented players. Arizona keeps rolling on without getting the props it is due; the Wildcats could take out Oklahoma State and even Illinois (if it's still having a bad shooting day). There's no reason N.C. State shouldn't believe it can take out Wisconsin after already knocking off Charlotte and Connecticut. Duke just keeps finding ways to win even when it isn't playing well; that will power is enough to beat soft Michigan State for the second time (but foul trouble may ultimately do in the Blue Devils against Kentucky, if Rajon Rondo has one more veteran performance in him). Did anybody take UNC, Louisville, Arizona and Kentucky?
Way Over Yonder In The NIT: Holy Cross won at Notre Dame (minus injured gChris Quinn). Davidson posted two road wins (at VCU and SW Missouri State) and now faces an even tougher test at Maryland; the Wildcats might have been one of the teams on everyone's lips this weekend had they made it into the NCAA tournament, but a trip to New York City would be a nice consolation prize. Root for a Memphis-Vanderbilt quarterfinal matchup on Wednesday (but first Vandy has to get past Wichita State on Monday) -- it's another one of those "why don't they play each other" rivalries that isn't. It Says Here: Memphis, Maryland, South Carolina and Holy Cross in NYC next week.
Extra Special
Saturday's double-header of Louisville-West Virginia and Illinois-Arizona was the most dramatic (and well played) pair of Regional Finals we've seen maybe ever. You hate to see any team play as well as the Mountaineers and the Wildcats did and come away with losses, but especially WVU. West Virginia put on a record-setting display of perimeter shooting: 18-for-27 on three-pointers and yet that only staked them to a 71-65 lead with 5 minutes to go. The normal formula for staging a postseason upset comes in three phases: (I - 10 minutes) hit some early threes and bolt out to a quick lead to put the favorite in panic mode and get the crowd into it early; (II - 20-25 minutes) play ball-control the cut down the time of the game and nurse the working margin, hold off surges at the end of the first half and the start of the second half, and spurt out to a 10-point advantage midway through the second period; (III - 5 minutes) go into your delay game, drive to the basket on every possession, and hit your free throws down the stretch. Mountaineer coach John Beilein never approached this game with that mindset, believing that as long as WVU played its game, it could compete with anybody. So, with their perimeter weave offense freeing them up for three-pointers which they continued to knock down with unbelievable capability, the Mountaineers basically stayed in Phase I for 35 minutes. They never worried about nursing the lead, meanwhile Louisville kept on scoring point-blank buckets and steadily reduced a 38-18 deficit with 2 minutes to go in the first half down to a 6-point game for the remaining 5-minute endplay. Not having ever gone to a ball-control phase and not having a pure point guard to run a delay game, West Virginia tried to keep running the same offense to finish it. cKevin Pittsnogle(25p;6-for-9 on 3s) did hit one last big 3ptr to make it 77-73(1:30), but tJohannes Herber missed the chance to ice the game with a couple of free throws. No 3s for WVU in the overtime and the Cardinals' perserverance finally paid off with a 93-85(OT) win. Heart-stopping, high quality stuff (and yet it wasn't even the best game of the day).
Arizona, with its individual talent, athleticism and skill level, went toe-to-toe with top-seeded Illinois in front of a partisan pro-Illini crowd in Chicago. After a tremendous back-and-forth struggle at the outset, Illinois extended to a 36-29 lead with 3 minutes left in the first half and might have taken control of things right there, but a big three by tJawann McClellan cut that margin right back and the Wildcats were able to close to a 38-36 deficit by halftime. Illinois' perimeter defense was able to keep gSalim Stoudamire(9p7a5r;2-for-13 shooting) in check -- he didn't hit his only three-pointer until 4 minutes into the second half, but UofI had all kinds of trouble containing cChanning Frye(24p12r) in the paint. At 49-49(13), fatigue set in a little bit for the Illini and their three-pointers stopped falling for a stretch until they were down and (seemingly) out trailing 60-75 with only 4 minutes left. But we've seen this Illinois team do something similar before (albeit on a lesser scale and stage): back in January, they trailed Wisconsin on the road late in the game but closed with a 14-1 run that snapped the Badgers' 38-game home win streak and preserved the Illini's undefeated season. This time, it was a spectacular 20-5 run sparked by steals, threes and clutch baskets by gDee Brown, bDeron Williams and gLuther Head -- The Big Three. In the overtime, Williams hit more big threes and Illinois pulled out a dramatic 90-89(OT) win. Arizona had the ball at the end of regulation and OT, but Stoudamire's jumper was blocked at the end of regulation and the Wildcats couldn't even get off a shot at the end of OT. One of the greatest games between two powerhouse opponents ever.
By comparison, Michigan State's double-overtime win over Kentucky on Sunday seemed ordinary. Plenty of drama -- including an agonizing wait at the end of regulation as the refs reviewed gPatrick Sparks' shot that dribbled in at :00 to see whether it was a three or a two -- (it was ruled a three by milimeters). Both MSU coach Tom Izzo and UK coach Tubby Smith use their benches well, but whereas Izzo knows what he's going to get from each of his cadre of talented perimeter players every time, for Tubby it's never quite clear from one game to the next which sub is going to be the one to make a big play. Five guards played 20+ minutes for the Spartans and they all made big plays; meanwhile, Tubby didn't get more than 6 points from anyone off the bench as Sparks -- the key player on this year's Kentucky team -- inexplicably sat for major stretches at the end of regulation and in overtime. Before being the apparent hero with his game-tying three-pointer, he was nearly the goat after being called off the bench to shoot 1-and-1 free throws when gRamel Bradley was knocked senseless by an elbow to the head with 30 seconds left. Sparks missed the free throw, sat for the defensive possession, and then missed his first three-point attempt to tie the game on the last possession before getting it back at the buzzer and canning the miracle shot. He missed a couple more big three attempts in the first OT as UK failed to even get off a shot with 25 seconds left at the end of the first overtime period. In the second OT, the Spartans nailed their free throws and iced the game. Not as well played as the previous day's heart-stoppers, but every bit as wild.
North Carolina's 88-82 win over Wisconsin was quite tame in light of the other three. In both games in Syracuse, the Tar Heels had to play major stretches with pRaymond Felton on the bench with foul trouble. On Friday against a game Villanova team, they played a mature, steady stretch without him, turning a 50-50(8) tie into a 61-50(5) lead midway through the second half, but with him out for good at 64-54(3), they played panicky ball and barely survived the endplay for a 67-66 victory. On Sunday, Wisconsin hurt UNC by hitting three-pointers from within their ball-control "Flex" offensive scheme whereas Villanova was hitting threes out of a much more up-tempo (and more dangerous to UNC) free-wheeling guard-led attack. UNC led UW 44-33(3) in the first half when Felton again sat with fouls and they played a shaky end of the first half, giving all of the lead back for a 44-44 tie at halftime and even falling behind 44-49 two minutes into the second half. Felton rallied them for a 14-0 run and they were seemingly back in control at 58-49(15). The Badgers hung around to make it an endplay game at 74-73(3), but with Felton on the court (and cSean May asserting the steadying presence of his personality onto Felton and gRashad McCants), the Tar heels closed with poise and won it 88-82.
In the Round of 16, top-seeded Washington had started to take command at 25-18(8) in the first half before Louisville's tFrancisco Garcia pulled the same cheat play that Duke's gJ.J. Redick had done two weeks earlier at the end of the ACC championship game: Garcia dragged UW's gNate Robinson out of bounds on top of him, making it look like Robinson had ridden him out on a blockout; the sorry refs fell for it -- (and the gutless announcers even praised Garcia for his "savvy"; and you wonder why Barry Bonds doesn't know what cheating is?) -- Robinson sat with 3 fouls and watched the Cardinals go on a 14-0 run that turned the nature of the game completely around. From that point on, the Huskies were caught up playing the brand name on the Louisville jerseys with an underdog mentality rather than attacking with the confidence of a No.1 seed. Don't get me wrong, Louisville is excellent and was underseeded at No.4 and underappreciated by almost everyone because of doubts about the quality of Conference USA in general (and Memphis in particular). The most difficult perceptive mental block in assessing this year's NCAA tournament was coming up with an objective read on the Cardinals. But that game shouldn't have been the runaway that it turned out to be.
Michigan State benefitted from having already played Duke once this year (in an 81-74 road loss in the ACC-BIG 10 CHALLENGE) and by having been shellacked by them last year 92-65 in East Lansing. They were able to play the actual players in uniform and not be sucked into the brand name Duke mystique. MSU has more depth of talent on the perimeter than Duke and they were able to demonstrate that on the court the second time around as the Spartans hounded the Blue Devil guards into 22 turnovers. Because of the glare of Illinois' run for an undefeated season, MSU was another team who suffered from a general underappreciation of its true quality. As weirdly put-together as that team seems to be -- all guards and no muscle in the paint -- it's actually built perfectly for this era of college hoops. Before their über-drama with Illinois in the Regional Final, Arizona came up on the good side of a dramatic finish with Oklahoma State in the Regional Semifinal, 79-78, as gSalim Stoudamire's :07 jumper trumped fJoey Graham's :13 basket and gJohn Lucas' :00 three-pointer missed the mark.
Illinois and North Carolina are still the favorites to meet in a Clash Of The Titans final (and the Illini are still the favorite to win it all), but no one is an overwhelming pick at this point. Louisville has shown the ability to score inside which will definitely pose a challenge to Illinois, their depth with challenge the Illini's stamina, and they've proven they can perform in the most dramatic of circumstances (as have all four semifinalists, actually). But Illinois seems to have an extra special character (not to mention the benefit of yet another home-away-from-home supportive crowd). Michigan State has a similar makeup to last year's runner-up Georgia Tech: depth of talent on the perimeter surrounding a finesse post player. It's no coincidence that that formula has made it through to the Final Four for a second straight year while none of the first-tier power forwards even made it to the Sweet 16. Repeat after me: It's A Guard's World, After All. (I know I'm a broken record on that point and, frankly, I'm not even all that happy about it from an aesthetic standpoint, but sometimes The Truth Hurts.) They'll give UNC lots of trouble, especially if they're able to get gRaymond Felton in foul trouble (which could easily happen). Still, this UNC team won these past two games with poise and halfcourt defense instead of pushing the hyper-pace at all costs -- that Villanova game is the one where Roy Williams' teams have usually been tripped up in the past. There's character and leadership in Them Thar Heels this time around. An Illinois-North Carolina final has a chance to be one of the greatest games ever: great halfcourt D, great execution in the halfcourt "Oh", great poise and character at the heart of both teams. (If only it weren't an Illinois home game. ¡Ay!)
In the NIT, three home games each paved the way for Memphis, Maryland, South Carolina and St. Joseph's to make it to New York. Only SJU, which had to play in the Opening Round of 64, even had to play on the road at all (in the quarterfinals at Texas A&M). Look for the final to be a rematch of the TIP-OFF CLASSIC back around Thanksgiving between Maryland and Memphis. Back then, the Terrapins destroyed the Tigers, 84-61. This time around, the Terps don't have gJohn Gilchrist and the Tigs don't have tSean Banks, so it'll be tNik Caner-Medley vs. tRodney Carney on the marquee (but the second-billed gDarius Washington of MU may prove to be the real MVP).
The Restoration
At Kansas, Roy Williams hadn't left the cupboard bare. Three seniors (fWayne Simien, gKeith Langford and gAaron Miles) who had been to two Final Fours under Williams, were still on hand. They had had their own tough adjustment to make last year going from Williams' up-and-down style to Bill Self's more deliberate focus. The 2003-04 season was a difficult one and only seemed to be falling into place at season's end when the Jayhawks made the Sweet 16 as the draw opened up for them. Year II of Self Rule figured to be a good one. Yet another injury to Simien robbed them of a chance to raise their level to elite status, but they managed to win enough big games to seem like an elite team to the national pollsters. The problem was, making them more deliberate and focused on a Three-The-Hard-Way style that funnelled the offense through Simien, while properly taking best advantage of the personnel on hand, didn't mesh with the current trend of play in the NCAA tournament where Guards Rule. (In fact, their best wins in the preseason came when Simien was out.)
Bruce Weber had his own problems with Illinois' nucleus of talent which had won the Big 10 tournament its previous year under Self. They struggled during the middle of the year but closed to win the Big 10 regular season title and made the Sweet 16. This year, they hit the ground running, served notice they were a contender to win it all with a preseason throttling of highly touted Wake Forest and never looked back. Running roughshod over what was a lightly regarded Big 10, the Illini flirted with the first undefeated season since Indiana '76 (coincidentally led by Player of the Year Scott May, father of UNC's cSean May). Indeed, only a miracle three-pointer by Ohio State's tMatt Sylvester -- a shot straight out of the movie Hoosiers -- managed to ruin their bid for immortality. With only a buzzer-beater loss against them all year, Illinois was the consensus #1 team from January through the rest of the season.
Other teams not part of The Great Coaching Shuffle of 2003 had their moments this season. Certainly, Wake Forest, led by preseason Player of the Year gChris Paul, played well enough all year to seem to be an equal partner in the Triumvirate with Illinois and North Carolina. But Wake's fortunes at the end of the season turned on the consequences of Paul's sucker punch to the groin against N.C. State's tJulius Hodge and the Demon Deacons were out of the conversation before they had a chance to be in it (falling in the second round in Cleveland in 2OT to three-happy West Virginia in a classic game). Georgia Tech and Oklahoma State seemed to have enough of a returning nucleus from Final Four teams to do similar damage this year, but Tech couldn't regain the fragile chemistry of its multi-'tweener squad from a year ago while OSU did have a solid season and only barely lost out at the buzzer to Arizona in the Round of 16. Syracuse, which featured most of the supporting cast from their 2003 national champion squad, had a great preseason (playing mostly in the friendly confines of New York state), played solidly in the very tough Big East, regrouping to win the conference tournament (again in NYC), but fell victim to Destiny's Darlings, the University of Vermont, in one of the great upset wins ever in the NCAA tournament. Washington won the GREAT ALASKA SHOOTOUT, garnering the most impressive wins in a preseason tournament and duked it out with Arizona all year for supremacy in the Pac-10. Gonzaga had its best preseason ever with wins over Washington, Georgia Tech and Oklahoma State (but its frontcourt-heavy attack ultimately fell victim to a guard-led Texas Tech team in the NCAA second round). Boston College made its own run at an undefeated season, starting 20-0 before losing (but its grinding style fell victim to three-shooting West Virginia in the Big East tournament and the fullcourt pressure of Wisconsin-Milwaukee in the NCAA second round). Over at Louisville, the Return of the King (Rick Pitino) four years ago had culminated in a dominant run through suspect Conference USA, but the Cardinals proved to be the real thing as UofL's NCAA run made Pitino the first coach to take three different schools (Louisville, Kentucky and Providence) to the Final Four. Never getting much attention with Illinois going undefeated ahead of them in conference, Michigan State turned out to be the most surprising guest in St. Louis as the guard-heavy Spartans beat Duke and Kentucky on their way to coach Tom Izzo's fourth Final Four appearance in seven years.
In the end, though, things came down to The Big Two. When their core junior stars were freshmen, Bill Self's Illini trounced Matt Doherty's Tar Heels 92-65 in the ACC-BIG 10 CHALLENGE in Champaign-Urbana. As sophomores, Roy Williams' new Tar Heels edged Bruce Weber's new Illini 88-81 in Chapel Hill in the same event. This time, with the national championship on the line, there was a completely different feel to the matchup. Both coaches had finally gotten through to their squads and had them playing (and excelling) in the manner that they wanted. Coming in, Illinois had shown the superior halfcourt execution and defense as well as a devastating perimeter attack centered around three-pointers. The Tar Heels had been all about forcing tempo and using their individual talent and overall depth to run past lesser opponents. On paper, a fast-paced game wouldn't have seemed to bother Illinois and a slow-paced one seemed to overwhelmingly favor UofI. Instead, UNC was just fine offensively in the halfcourt as Illinois had absolutely no defense for cSean May in the paint nor much success guarding gRashad McCants all over in the first half. UNC's weakness, lack of depth at the point behind gRaymond Felton, turned out to be a blessing in disguise: UNC's man-to-man defense couldn't keep up with the (barely legal) screening in UofI's halfcourt offense and the Illini got plenty of great looks from three and were able to keep pace in an offensive showcase. But when Felton got a second foul only 7 minutes into the game, Roy Williams went to a zone defense to protect Felton defensively while allowing him to remain in the game to run the offense. Illinois actually got less open looks from 3 against the zone than they had against man-to-man and their offense stalled while UNC closed the first half with a 13-2 run and lead 40-27 at the break. In the past, Roy Williams' run-at-all-costs style has always tripped him up somewhere along the way in the tournament. This year, UNC survived a third-round game against Villanova 67-66 with Felton out with foul trouble for much of it -- that's the game that has usually taken out Roy's teams in the past, but this time they survived. At the start of the second half, rather than nurse the early 15-point margin, UNC kept attacking since Illinois hadn't shown much ability to stop it, but it backfired: the lead shrank from 47-32 down to 49-45 in only three minutes and a potential runaway had turned into a barnburner. Had they lost this game, that stretch (and the fact that UNC didn't stay in the zone that was working when the second half started because Felton wasn't in foul trouble) could have been yet another "I told you so" chapter in Roy's Tales of NCAA Woe. With control of the game up for grabs, cSean May went through a stretch where he scored or assisted on nearly every Tar Heel basket and UNC regained it at 65-55 with nine minutes left. But foul trouble on Felton again put UNC in jeopardy and a particularly bad stretch by freshman fMarvin Williams allowed Illinois (who never stopped firing away from three-point range -- they took 40 three-pointers on the night, making 12) to pull back even at 65-65 with five minutes left. On paper, the endplay should have favored the Illini who had shown the ability to close games with near perfect execution this season, but it was Felton who hit a huge three-pointer to keep UNC out front, made a key steal in a big defensive possession, and went 3-for-4 from the free throw line at the end to seal a thrilling 75-70 victory for the Tar Heels.
So The Restoration is complete. King Roy has returned North Carolina to its rightful place atop the college basketball world. The moniker of "best coach to never win it all" has been banished for good. All's right with the world. You've heard the saying: "If God isn't a Tar Heel, then why is the sky Carolina blue?" Let 'em celebrate. A great coach led a great team to victory over a great team in a very good final of one of the best tournaments we've seen in quite a while.
Thanks for reading the weekly columns this past season. Hope you enjoyed reading them as much as I enjoyed writing them.
-- Ron
(c) 2004-05 Ron McBay
http://mindspring.com/~usul
usul@mindspring.com