St. Joseph's in the East Division and
Xavier in the West Division have the glamour players;
Dayton has a returning nucleus but a new coach; Temple may
be back in the mix.
The schedule favors Xavier, getting to host the single-game
showdown with St. Joseph's.
St. Joseph's has been great;
Dayton has been very good; George Washington and
Rhode Island have been a surprise; Xavier and Temple have
been disappointing.
North Carolina and
Duke have the star power, but
Wake Forest's roster may be deeper. It'll be tough for
Florida State's young talent to be a factor right out of the box.
The schedule favors UNC with home games first against both
rivals; Wake Forest has to go on the road first against the
other two powers.
* With the departure of Jacksonville State and Samford (both to the
Ohio Valley Conference) and
the addition of Lipscomb (formerly independent), the league goes from two 6-team divisions to
one 11-team division. That makes it tougher for more teams to maintain their momentum at the
end of the season.
Troy State, Mercer and Belmont return enough firepower to
contend again; Central Florida may fall off the pace from last year;
Georgia State underachieved last year but there's enough
talent to contend.
Georgia State gets all the early home games and Belmont
goes on the road first time through.
Key games:
12/ 4: Belmont 76 @ Georgia St 58
12/ 6: @ Mercer 72 Belmont 70
1 / 3: @ C Florida 70 Georgia St 60
Belmont and Georgia State were able to make a splash
above expectations; Troy State and Central Florida were
solid; Mercer had it rough against a very ambitious schedule.
1 / 5: C Florida 60 @ Mercer 56
1 / 8: @ Troy St 82 Belmont 80
1 /13: [] @ Georgia St 84 Troy St 83
1 /16: @ Georgia St 79 Mercer 66
1 /19: @ C Florida 68 Belmont 63
1 /19: Troy St 82 @ Mercer 66
1 /23: C Florida 74 @ Troy St 72
1 /27: @ Mercer 73 Georgia St 55
1 /31: Troy St 76 @ C Florida 64
2 / 5: @ Belmont 77 C Florida 61
2 / 6: @ Troy St 85 Georgia St 59
2 / 8: Mercer @ Troy St
2 /15: Troy St 74 @ Belmont 67
2 /19: C Florida 83 @ Mercer 60
2 /21: @ Georgia St 63 C Florida 61
2 /26: @ Belmont 81 Mercer 70
2 /28: Georgia St 72 @ Belmont 70 (OT)
3 / 4 A-SUN TOURNAMENT 1st/Qtrs @ Nashville, TN
(The top 8 teams qualify for the conference tournament.)
Michigan State and
Illinois have the star power;
Wisconsin and Purdue get
it done with lesser marquee value; Ohio State's newcomers may be able to break through right
away.
A disappointing preseason for the entire league was salvaged by
Purdue, Illinois and
Wisconsin; Michigan looked good; Iowa was decent;
Minnesota and Ohio State had some bad patches; Indiana was
horrid; Michigan State played an absurdly ambitious
schedule and didn't handle it well.
The league is officially a one-division alignment, but the unbalanced schedule effectively
splits the teams geographically into two groups: "North" (Kansas and above) and "South" (the
Oklahoma/Texas teams).
Texas' roster is deep and talented;
Missouri has returning stars and new blood to boot;
Kansas lost its stars and its coach but the
replacements are pretty good; Oklahoma lost its heart and
soul. Texas Tech and
Oklahoma State will find a way to do more with less, as
always.
Missouri's home-and-home is with
Kansas and they host Texas
while traveling to Oklahoma -- that's the best scenario among
the unbalanced schedules. Kansas gets
Missouri twice, travels to
Texas and hosts Oklahoma --
that's the worst scenario.
It was a good (not great) preseason for the league.
Oklahoma had a strong performance;
Texas and Kansas looked
good and bad; Texas Tech,
Oklahoma State and Nebraska looked promising;
Missouri couldn't put it together with a lot of talented
pieces.
After having two 7-team divisions, the league goes to a single 14-team division this year. That
will make it tougher for more teams to finish the season feeling they have momentum going.
UConn has stars and as well as new talent;
Syracuse still has a solid nucleus returning;
Notre Dame still has some star power left;
Pitt's supporting cast returns but it lost a lot of talent
and its coach.
The good news is that the top four teams all play home-and-home.
UConn and Notre Dame have
more of their tough games at home first; Syracuse and
Pitt have it to tough it out on the road first.
UC-Santa Barbara, UC-Irvine and Utah State all have enough
returning firepower to be the main contenders again for the conference title; UC-Riverside may
have the new blood to get into the fray.
Afrer having two 7-team divisions, the league has realigned into one 14-team division. That
will make it tougher for more teams to maintain momentum at the end of the season.
Louisville lost some star power but the system can take
it; Cincinnati has a lot of new talent but the chemistry
remains to be seen; Marquette lost its star but its coach
should find a way. Memphis will have to overachieve to get
into the mix.
Marquette only has to play
Cincinnati once, at home -- unbalanced and unfair.
All five starters return for Illinois-Chicago, the strong
favorite to take the league title. Usual suspects Butler, Detroit and
Wisconsin-Milwaukee are all in rebuilding mode.
Illinois-Chicago wasn't able to pull off any breakthrough
wins in the preseason (and is 0-2 right away in early league play to boot); Detroit and
Wisconsin-Milwaukee had highs and lows in the preseason
(and both got the early jump on UIC).
(The top 2 seeds get byes into the semis; the #3 seed gets a bye into the quarters.)
@ [4]Detroit 62 [9]Cleveland St 36
[8]Loyola-IL 76 @ [5]Wright St 59
@ [6]Butler 88 [7]Youngstown St 57
3 / 5 HORIZON TOURNAMENT Qtrs @ Indianapolis, IN/ @Milwaukee, WI
(if Butler does not win its first-round game, the #1-seed will host the quarterfinals)
@ [6]Butler 72 [3]WI-Green Bay 50
[4]Detroit 60 [8]Loyola-IL 55
3 / 6 HORIZON TOURNAMENT Semis @ Indianapolis, IN/ @Milwaukee, WI
(if Butler does not win its first-round game, the #1-seed will host the semifinals)
The stars have left the stage and last year's powers all figure to be rebuilding this year.
It's anybody's ball game in the East Division and the door is wide open in the West Division for
the five returning starters at Bowling Green.
With no clear favorites, how do you determine who has the more favorable schedule?
Bowling Green was a complete bust in
the preseason; no one else was able to break through, but
Kent State and Akron in the East and
Western Michigan and Toledo in the West seem to be the
only solid teams.
Last year's stars have left the stage, so expect a lower profile for the league this year.
Wichita State and Southwest Missouri State have the
returning firepower to make them the favorites. At least
Creighton still has its coach to help with the rebuilding
process, but Southern Illinois doesn't even have that.
SW Missouri State hosts Wichita State first time around --
that's a slight advantage.
Key games:
12/13: Wichita St 81 @ SW Missouri St 63
12/30: @ Creighton 59 SW Missouri St 54
Four returning starters gives BYU the early edge; new blood
at Utah and UNLV may be enough to forge ahead before the
season's over. In such a competitive league, almost anyone else could step up and contend or at
least spoil.
The early home game helps young UNLV a slight bit.
The entire conference was pretty solid in the preseason, especially
Utah and BYU;
Colorado State had a breakthrough win while Air Force and
UNLV also made some noise.
* The addition of Jacksonville State and Samford (both from the
Atlantic Sun) only makes the single division race tougher.
With five returning starters, Austin Peay is the
overwhelming favorite to repeat as league champion. Morehead State and
Murray State shoul contend for second place.
Arizona returns enough talent (and adds some) to be the
favorite; Stanford has enough experience to contend;
Cal's mix of old and new may be enough as well.
Arizona State, Oregon, USC and UCLA (with its new coach) can all spoil and may coalesce enough
to do more than that.
The two early home games are a big edge to Arizona.
Cal has it worse than
Stanford.
Florida has plenty of talent to make it the favorite in the
East Division and overall; Kentucky will be even more no-name
than last year's successful overachieving squad. In the weaker West Division,
LSU, Mississippi State
and Auburn will compete for the right to spoil.
The league was very strong overall in the preseason. Kentucky
and Florida came through looking good (not great);
Vanderbilt,
Mississippi State,
South Carolina and LSU were
surprisingly impressive; Georgia and new-look Alabama had
breakthrough wins; Tennessee and Auburn were also solid.
* VMI and Elon swapped conferences (the Big South). Chattanooga and Davidson only
swapped divisions (North and South).
With all five starters returning, East Tennessee State is
the favorite in the North Division (and overall); Chattanooga will contend. In the West,
College of Charleston and Davidson are rebuilding but should be able to spoil.
College of Charleston has it the easiest, getting both North powers at home; Davidson has it
worst, having to travel on the road to the North elite. Between the two powers, Chattanooga has
it slightly better than ETSU.
Key games:
12/ 1: @ Col of Charleston 75 Davidson 69
12/ 6: @ E Tennessee St 91 Georgia So 85
Louisiana-Lafayette is the class of the West Division (and
the league); don't expect New Mexico State to do more than spoil. In the East, Western Kentucky
(which lost its coach) may have trouble fending off Arkansas-Little Rock as overall spoilers.
(NOTE: Teams play each division rival twice and each non-division rival once. So the
East Division teams wind up with a 14-game schedule {2*4 + 6} and the West Division teams wind
up with a 15-game schedule.)
Arkansas State posted a nice preseason record (against an unchallenging schedule);
Louisiana-Lafayette's challenging preseason scheduled proved
to be too much to ask.
With no clear rival to the frontrunner, the schedule is irrelevant.
Key games:
1 / 7: @ Arkansas St 79 We Kentucky 76
1 /17: @ We Kentucky 74 Arkansas St 66
1 /22: @ LA-Lafayette 67 New Mexico St 53
1 /29: LA-Lafayette 110 @ We Kentucky 102
2 /18: LA-Lafayette 76 @ New Mexico St 58
2 /26: @ LA-Lafayette 82 Arkansas St 62
2 /28: Arkansas St 82 @ New Mexico St 73 (OT)
3 / 6 SUN BELT TOURNAMENT 1st/Qtrs @ Bowling Green, KY
(The top 8 teams advance to the conference tournament.)
No team looks to run away with things from the outset.
Nevada suffered the least loss of talent from last year.
Fresno State's probation will hinder motivation. Hawaii
and Tulsa have just as much of a shot as anyone else.
In an evenly matched group like this, the schedule is key.
Hawaii has early home games that could give it the edge.
Tulsa starts out on the road and may not recover.
The league overall had an exceptionally strong preseason.
Nevada and SMU posted breakthrough wins; Rice and
Hawaii won big-name holiday tournaments; UTEP and Boise State
were solid besides; Tulsa and Fresno State weren't competitive.