Glory Days
North Carolina returns all five starters from a team that swept to last year's PRESEASON NIT title right out of the gate behind a trio of star freshmen. Things eventually soured, though, after the injury to C Sean May and got to the point where disgruntled players (and the Carolina faithful) eventually ousted coach Matt Dougherty. Meanwhile, Roy Williams made it all the way to national runnerup with the senior class to whom he was so devoted that he had turned down the UNC job in the past. Now the stars are aligned for a big season in Chapel Hill: the players know how good they can be and the coach is still hungry for the ultimate brass ring.
Better yet, with a high-calibre coach in place at UNC, the Duke-UNC rivalry is now back as the centerpiece of college basketball. Duke actually has more talent, better distributed on its roster. In fact, if G J.J. Reddick can go from good to great in his sophomore year the same way Jay(Jason) Williams was able to do before him, it might be "game over" for everyone. And what if freshman F Luol Deng ("second only to LeBron James") has the kind of impact in Durham that Carmelo Anthony had on Syracuse (and all of college basketball) last year? On paper, Duke has a bigger potential upside, but the intangibles belong to UNC. If you believe in fate (which I don't), you'd have to believe this is the year for the Tar Heels. While I don't believe in fate, I do believe in the power of belief to motivate and propel into realization what might look from the inside like destiny.
That said, the best individual player in college basketball is C Emeka Okafor of Connecticut. In an era where centers mattered more, UConn would be the easy pick for the top spot. As it is nowadays, though, some guy hitting 3-pointers can have more of an effect on a game than all the blocked shots and dunks in the world. Guards matter and the backcourt at UConn is slightly behind UNC and Duke. Compare the fortunes of three teams with great talent on the baseline each in need of a first-rate point guard to run the proceedings: Texas, Michigan State and Wake Forest.
We're still a year or two away from the major conference realignments to go into effect. For now, we have a couple of small changes with the Big East and Conference USA going from dual divisions to single-division regular season races. That will most likely make it harder for several teams to head towards the postseason with momentum.
For the most part, the Big Boys stay away from each other in the preseason tournaments. Connecticut should have the PRESEASON NIT all to its own. Duke should have no trouble taking the GREAT ALASKA SHOOTOUT. The MAUI INVITATIONAL and the RAINBOW CLASSIC have no marquee names at all (in fact, host Hawaii has a good chance to take both). ESPN has suckered in 36 teams this year for its BRACKET BUSTER SATURDAY in February (once again, don't look for anyone to improve their chances for a bid from a win that day; all anyone will do is eliminate themselves with a loss).
Things get under way Thursday and Friday with a couple of double-headers in the COACHES VS CANCER in New York City. The best matchup should be Friday's Gonzaga - St. Joseph's clash. The 'Zags are expecting big things once again this year and it would help their seeding come tournament time if they could post some actual major-league Ws on paper during the preseason before lackluster West Coast Conference play drags down their RPI. Saturday through Monday is a three-round BCA CLASSIC hosted by Xavier (Illinois-Chicago should make the final and don't be too surprised if they snatch an Unwelcome Guest upset).
Here we go!!!
The one good game last week came when the two veteran teams Gonzaga and St. Joseph's met. These two have battled down to the wire in a home-and-home series the past two years. F Ronny Turiaf was ineffective just days after returning from injury and the 'Zags weren't able to exploit what should have been a big advantage in the paint; F Cory Violette did have 13p/15r but that was pretty much it as SJU's unheralded frontline had some big blocks underneath. The perimeter game was all St. Joe's. 6-0/190 G Jameer Nelson (aka Mighty Mouse) was terrific -- 20 points, 10 assists, 8 rebounds -- and his backcourt mate G Delonte West had 16p of his own. On top of that, their superior quickness held GU's G Blake Stepp to only 8 points on 2-for-12 shooting. Nelson and West are such a pleasure to watch play -- no other pair of guards works together as well -- they can both penetrate, shoot and they both know how to move without the ball and each one is constantly looking for the other to break into the open. Nice.
Elsewhere, Xavier easily won the first two rounds of its three-round showcase BCA CLASSIC tournament. Illinois-Chicago, from the Horizon League, one of the few teams that figured to be able to make a splash against the Big Boys, was badly outrebounded by Oakland in the semis. Oakland, the favorite in the Mid-Continent Conference, doesn't figure to have the same upset potential in the long run.
The PRESEASON NIT starts up on Monday with the first two rounds this week on-campus and the semis and finals next week in New York City. Connecticut, the only ranked team in the field, should have no trouble winning the crown. The thing to watch with UConn will be how much help C Emeka Okafor gets under the boards and how good freshman pG Marcus Williams really is. The Huskies won't likely get a real test until January when they host Oklahoma and travel to Chapel Hill to play North Carolina. Underneath the headline, look to see whether Louisiana-Lafayette can pull off a splash win at Georgia Tech and possibly make it through to NYC. Texas Tech doesn't have much new talent added to the mix, but individual talent is less important in Bobby Knight's system. Check out freshman C Andrew Bogut of Utah, who should be one of the top newcomers in all of college hoops this season.
The GUARDIANS CLASSIC has yet another weird configuration this year: three 4-team regionals (at SW Missouri State, at South Carolina and at Richmond) who play two rounds this week with the 3 winners plus an "at-large" team advancing to next week's semis and finals in Kansas City. The TOP OF THE WORLD CLASSIC also has a no-name field "headed" by coach Dick Bennett's rebuilding effort at Washington State. Oklahoma's SOONER INVITATIONAL and Marquette's BLUE AND GOLD CLASSIC are your run-of-the-mill two-round showcases that signify nothing. The PARADISE JAM in St. Thomas, VI features two 3-team groups who play round robin with the cross-group finals next Monday. (Only pay attention if splash candidate Wichita State meets spoiler candidate Boston College in the finals; no other matchup will count for much.) The LAS VEGAS INVITATIONAL features two days of round robin play on-campus this week followed by two more days of round robin play in Las Vegas next week (but only 'T Darius Rice of Miami-FL is worth paying attention to). Outside of the PRESEASON NIT, Texas Tech has a separate game against East Tennessee State (another prime candidate to make a splash somewhere along the way this season); F Zakee Wadood is the leading scorer for ETSU but it's sophomore pG Tim Smith who gives them a chance to be special.
Don't Disturb The Water
Rice (WAC) did manage win the no-name TOP OF THE WORLD CLASSIC. Xavier took home the three-round showcase BCA CLASSIC title in front of the home folk. South Carolina, SW Missouri State and Richmond all won their host regionals and advanced along with "wild card" San Francisco to the semis and finals of the GUARDIANS CLASSIC in Kansas City this week. Oklahoma (SOONER INVITATIONAL) and Marquette (BLUE AND GOLD CLASSIC) won their two-round showcases.
The best thing about UConn's performance so far isn't the great start by Ben Gordon, it's the solid contributions from the supporting cast (and super frosh Charlie Villanueva hasn't even played yet). Roy Williams has installed his run-at-all-costs style at North Carolina. With so many possessions, it creates a deeper bench because so many more people get more touches. It will also make 'T Rashad McCants a better player in the long run even if he doesn't dominate the game in the short run like last year. Depth isn't the issue for UNC, height is. The blowouts will come easier against teams that can't keep up the pace, but a team that can run with them or can slow the tempo by controlling the boards will give the Tar Heels a lot of problems. Meanwhile, Duke got down 0-12 at home to Detroit in their season opener before pulling out a 67-56 win. Freshman 'T Luol Deng isn't "too good for college" like LeBron James and he doesn't have the offensive polish of Carmelo Anthony. What he does have (at 6-8) is a great handle and the ability to slash to the basket for scores. For better or worse, the Blue Devils will have to channel the offense through him because of his talent. Anthony had a special personality to go along with his skills that allowed him to lead wihout stepping on veteran toes -- (James doesn't seem to have found the right mix himself at the NBA level) -- and it remains to be seen whether Deng has that going for him.
Texas Tech has stormed into the PRESEASON NIT semifinals behind a couple of impressive home wins. Utah trailed Georgia State for most of the game before freshman C Andrew Bogut bailed them out; they looked much better against Minnesota (and outstanding freshman F Kris Humphries). The Red Raiders' intensity should be too much for the Utes to handle, but there's no such thing as forcing UConn to play "too fast".
The MAUI INVITATIONAL gets under way Monday with another no-name field (Ohio State, Dayton, Villanova, at Hawaii). Hawaii actually has a pretty good chance to pull off the double of winning MAUI this month and the RAINBOW CLASSIC next month (which also has no big-name teams). Duke should have the GREAT ALASKA SHOOTOUT all to itself. A couple of one-off matchups will grab the most attention this week: Michigan State at Kansas on Tuesday and Arizona vs Florida in the TIP-OFF CLASSIC in Springfield, MA on Friday. Kansas doesn't really have that much returning talent but the home crowd should pull the Jayhawks' through. Arizona's quickness will give finesse Florida a lot of problems. On Saturday, 'T Romain Sato (Xavier) and G Bracey Wright (Indiana) square off in the JOHN WOODEN TRADITION in Indianapolis. On Sunday, Rice will try to keep the dream alive when it hosts Stanford.
Happy Thanksgiving!
1A, 1B -- 2C
The Yellow Jackets lost Chris Bosh and Ed Nelson (the past two ACC Rookies of the Year) from last year's squad and is somehow a much better team. Coach Paul Hewitt only coaches one way -- run at all costs -- and he could never get the full effect of what should have been a great high-low game out of Bosh and Nelson. Bosh left for the NBA after just one season, and Nelson was in Hewitt's doghouse so badly that he transferred to Connecticut. That left sophomore guard Jarrett Jack and a bunch of 'tweeners. Michael Jordan's best Chicago Bulls team featured an NBA-level GTTTF lineup (B.J. Armstrong, Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Ron Harper and Dennis Rodman) that ripped through the league. This Tech team has a similar makeup on the college level (Jack, B.J. Elder, Isma'il Muhammad, Marvin Lewis, Clarence Moore). That kind of lineup wreaks havoc because there are so many ball-handlers, shooters, passers and movers; but it only works if you can still control the boards. The Bulls had Rodman for that and Tech did a great job of gang-rebounding when 7' C Luke Schenscher wasn't on the floor. Give Tech full credit for this effort -- no one else is going to post any better result in the preseason than this. That style of play may not work when things slow down in conference play, but it's great for the wide-open games in the preseason (and the postseason). (And don't forget, GT still has Arizona-transfer G Will Bynum set to join the team in December.)
Duke's problems are on the offensive end. The good news is that things can get better; the bad news is that their hopes rest on a sophomore and a freshman. G J.J. Reddick isn't able to score off the dribble well enough to free up his jump shot and 'T Luol Deng has a lot to master to become the point-forward they need him to be. Right now, without all the easy three-pointers that they're used to, the Blue Devils have to work really hard to separate themselves from opponents.
Florida and Arizona played a fierce game that went down to the last possession in the TIP-OFF CLASSIC in Springfield, MA. The Wildcats are incredible quick all over the floor and only 'T Matt Walsh's 3-point barrage in the late-going kept the Gators in it before they won it when a defensive lapse gave UF a layup for the winning basket. Kansas still wants to run like Roy Williams taught them -- that helped them against the mismatched perimeter talent of Michigan State (while F Wayne Simien had his way inside against MSU's F Paul Davis). Bill Self wants to make the Jayhawks more of a defense-into-offense club, but if it ain't broke, don't fix it. (The uptempo game should serve them well when they face Stanford in Anaheim, CA on Saturday in the JOHN WOODEN CLASSIC.) In the JOHN WOODEN TRADITION in Indianapolis, Louisville looked terrible in their OT loss to Iowa while Indiana's G Bracey Wright(27p) outshone Xavier's 'T Romain Sato(19p) in IU's OT win.
Gonzaga once again failed to impress, needing overtime to beat lightly regarded Georgia in front of a home crowd. (They get another chance to prove they're worth all the praise everyone wants to give them when they face Maryland in the BB&T CLASSIC this weekend.) Syracuse is barely 1-1, despite getting 34 points from G Gerry McNamara in their first game home loss to Charlotte and 30 points from F Hakim Warrick in the second game. Missouri could only win by 5 at Oakland, which lost by 29 at Cincinnati in the same week. Give Dayton credit for winning the MAUI INVITATIONAL (over a weak field). Ditto for South Carolina (GUARDIANS CLASSIC), Boston College (PARADISE JAM) and Rhode Island (LAS VEGAS INVITATIONAL).
The ACC-BIG 10 CHALLENGE takes place Monday through Wednesday. Three of the four marquee matchups are in ACC territory, so look for them to win it 6-3 overall and 3-1 up top with North Carolina (over Illinois), Wake Forest (over Indiana), Maryland (over Wisconsin) and Michigan State (over Duke) all winning at home. Illinois-Chicago will have a tough task trying to pull off an Unwelcome Guest win in the HAWKEYE CHALLENGE at Iowa. Princeton may have a better shot at the McCAFFREY CLASSIC at Fresno State.
"Big 5 Triple-Header" -- 'nuff said.
Little Ten
In the JOHN WOODEN CLASSIC, Stanford hung on to beat Kansas 64-58. The Cardinal neutralized the Jayhawks in the frontcourt and the backcourt of G Matt Lottich and G Chris Hernandez (who missed most of last year) provided the key points in the late-going. Kentucky struggled but held on to beat UCLA 52-50.
Gonzaga got 27p/11a from G Blake Stepp in their win over Maryland and went on to win the BB&T CLASSIC in Washington, DC (while the Terps lost again in OT to West Virginia). Notre Dame's one-two punch of G Chris Thomas and C Torin Francis isn't nearly as fearsome as the four-man attack they had last year when Matt Carroll and Dan Miller were still around -- Marquette had no trouble handling the Irish at home. Under the radar, SMU edged Texas Tech, BYU topped Oklahoma State, and Wichita State beat up on Manhattan.
Things are pretty slow this week for the most part. Texas's 39-point scoring margin will certainly go down, but they should still beat Arizona in the JIMMY V CLASSIC on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Florida should handle Maryland, but Purdue will have a hard time on the road at Oklahoma. Indiana and Notre Dame have rarely had less combined luster than they do when they meet this week (but Bracey Wright vs. Chris Thomas should still be fun to watch). On Saturday, Kentucky and Michigan State are trying to set the all-time attendance record for a college basketball game by playing in the Silverdome.
Tempo Control
Florida's lack of defensive quickness was exploited by Maryland (which won in Gainesville in OT) and then Louisville (which won at home). In an up-tempo game where both teams want to run (and there's little emphasis on defensive stops) -- like their earlier win over Arizona -- they're better off. Another team that prefers a fast pace, Illinois, was throttled in the JIMMY V CLASSIC by Providence 70-51 when the Friars slowed them down with a zone. North Carolina becomes quite ordinary when they aren't able to run and get contributions from bench players.
Gonzaga may be the team that can best handle both fast-pace games and slow-down games. G Blake Stepp likes to push the pace, but the Bulldogs are even better in the halfcourt when F Ronny Turiaf's low-post game takes over and freshman F Adam Morrison scores off the dribble. The 'Zags got another name win in beating Missouri in overtime in Seattle, but don't pile on the GU hype machine just yet. The Tigers have yet to turn in one performance that is Top-10 calibre, even against scrubs; and Georgia, a team GU also had to go to OT to beat in front of a home crowd just lost by 20 at home to Winthrop. Gonzaga's win over Maryland last week looks better as the Terrapins continue to improve. Coach Gary Williams is among the best at taking a collection of individuals and turning them into a cohesive unit in short order. G John Gilchrist, F Nik Caner-Medley and C Jamar Smith were role players at best last year, but on their own this year they've already got wins over Wisconsin and now Florida.
Oklahoma and Purdue played an ugly slow-down game in Norman that the Sooners won 47-45. The Boilermakers, Wisconsin, Utah and even Duke are better off when things aren't going at breakneck speed. Kentucky and Michigan State played in front of 78,129 at Ford Field in Detroit, the most people ever to watch a basketball game (college or pro). With 4 losses already, all against quality opponents, a lot of the pecking order of the Top 25 is related to how badly someone beat the Spartans.
By hosting an exempt tournament, Pittsburgh will actually wind up playing 20 home games this season (including 4 in the next 8 days in the PITT HOLIDAY CLASSIC). They won't face a quality opponent until Florida State next Monday. Lots of nice matchups on tap for Saturday: Texas and Duke will wage a tempo war in New York (technically, a Duke home game). Wake Forest visits North Carolina in big early ACC conference game. Stanford meets Gonzaga in Oakland in the PETE NEWELL CHALLENGE, and Wisconsin hosts Marquette.
Shake Well Before Using
Stanford (which is still without its best player, 'T Josh Childress), built a 17-point lead against Gonzaga before winning 87-80 in the PETE NEWELL CHALLENGE in Oakland. The Cardinal big men, F Justin Davis and C Rob Little, got the Bulldogs' F Ronny Turiaf in early foul trouble and G Matt Lottich shot six-for-seven on 3-pointers on the way to a 34-point performance. Nevada whipped Kansas 75-61 in the final of the more-than-a-showcase WOLF PACK CLASSIC in Reno. Meanwhile, 5-3 SMU (which has beaten Texas Tech but lost at home to Wake Forest) rallied to beat Purdue to win the supposed-to-be-a-showcase BOILERMAKER INVITATIONAL in West Lafayette. Wisconsin edged Marquette at home 63-59 in their in-state rivalry game.
Texas' second straight weak performance against a legitimate team throws the rankings into a scramble this week. The reputations of Arizona, Florida, Maryland, Gonzaga and St. Joseph's have all been made off one another (and the Longhorns) so the whole lot got rearranged. Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Florida State only have blowouts over scrubs on their resumes at this point. The Bearcats hosts MAUI-winner Dayton on Tuesday, while the Panthers host the Seminoles in the "final" of the round-robin PITT HOLIDAY CLASSIC tonight (Monday night), and FSU hosts Maryland in another early ACC game on Sunday. Vanderbilt's rep comes from two blowouts over Big 10 teams: decent-enough Michigan and sudden-patsy Indiana, so don't expect the Commodores (who do have a huge frontline and a star player in F Matt Freije) to move in the rankings until league play in the SEC offers more proof about them.
Louisville's home win over Florida doesn't mean they have a chance to upset Kentucky in Rupp Arena -- (don't forget that loss to Iowa). Illinois and Missouri square off in their annual BRAGGIN' RIGHTS rivalry game in St. Louis on Tuesday. Steve Alford coaches against former mentor Bob Knight when Iowa plays Texas Tech in Dallas tonight (Monday). After losing on the road to LSU (and C Jaime Lloreda) last week, Utah will try its luck against Colorado (and C David Harrison) this week. The Utes' C Andrew Bogut has nice finesse skills, but these more physical frontliners are more of a problem for him.
The RAINBOW CLASSIC field is so weak that the favorite is probably East Tennessee State (with sophomore point guard Tim Smith and senior F Zakee Wadood).
Happy Holidays!!!
USA Force
With wins now over the SEC's two elite teams, you can forget Louisville's opening-game loss to Iowa. Their game is now focused and ready for the regular season. Revisiting Kentucky's preseason performance, however, reveals only a couple of squeak road wins over UCLA and Michigan State (along with a no-credit blowout of Indiana). In a season where it doesn't seem like any one team is untouchable, losing at home is a big deal.
Florida State couldn't pull off the road win over Pittsburgh in the final of the PITT HOLIDAY CLASSIC -- the Panthers won 63-56 behind G Carl Krauser's 17p/8a performance -- but they were able to use the home crowd to spur them a nice early ACC win over Maryland, 79-75, on Sunday night.
Illinois and Missouri swapped personalities at halftime in the annual split-crowd BRAGGIN' RIGHTS game in St. Louis. The Illini bolted to a 40-19 lead with 4 minutes left in the first half and could seemingly do no wrong in the first 20 minutes; then UM used a zone and some hot shooting of its own to climb all the way back to a 67-67 tie with a minute to go before Illinois won the end-play 71-70.
California has limped through the preseason to a 4-5 record with the final disgrace being a 49-44 home loss to Air Force in the final of their own supposed-to-be-showcase GOLDEN BEAR CLASSIC. Spring semester eligibility has arrived for some key players (e.g., G Jason Conley at Missouri). Well below the radar, newly eligible C Nate Williams had 28p/12r for Georgia State, which upset previously unbeaten Auburn on the road.
Expect BYU and Wisconsin-Milwaukee to fight for the Unwelcome Guest win in the final of the CABLE CAR CLASSIC in Santa Clara. It'll be interesting to see how close Louisiana-Lafayette can come to Arizona in the final of the FIESTA BOWL CLASSIC. (Remember, they started the season with a 34-point loss at Georgia Tech.) Only a road win against rival Georgia stands in the way of an A+ preseason performance by Georgia Tech. C Sean May injured his ankle on Sunday for North Carolina; that's bad news in the short run with a big road game against Kentucky on Saturday, but it could be devastating news for the Tar Heels if it's a chronic problem that worries him all season. Syracuse is finally playing solid ball and can get a "name" win over Michigan State on Saturday.
Duke very nearly had the two best freshmen in the country, but instead, F Kris Humphries decided to stay home and play for Minnesota (where he might already be the best player in the Big 10). Check him out when the Golden Gophers play solid Texas Tech on New Year's Day.
Happy New Year, everyone!!!
Single-File Or Double-Breasted
A few early clashes in conference play have already taken place, but this week is the official kickoff when all of the holiday specialty matchups are done and everyone gets down to league games. Until this past weekend, (powered by surprising performances by Georgia Tech, Maryland and Florida State), the ACC had come through as the best overall conference without much of an argument, but the SEC was able to sneak in some big wins that pulled it at least into a close second (thanks also to the depth shown by surprising Vanderbilt, South Carolina and new-look Alabama). Before the season got started, the Big 12 was supposed to be the strongest league top-to-bottom, but Texas flopped into their two big showdowns, Kansas doesn't shine as brightly under Bill Self (yet) and Missouri hasn't been able to turn its stockpile of individual talent into a dominant unit as was expected. The Big 10 doesn't have anyone playing Top 10-calibre ball (thanks mostly to Michigan State's inability to handle its killer preseason schedule). The Pac-10 drops off considerably after its top two elite squads. A special hats-off goes to the WAC, which had four different teams pull off meaningful tournament wins in the preseason.
The two major conferences which have switched from two-division alignments last year to single-division lineups this year are the Big East and Conference USA. Coincidentally, both leagues showed good depth in the preseason with lower-profile teams posting strong starts. Teams like Providence and West Virginia could sneak past the likes of Syracuse and Notre Dame if they're not careful. Likewise, Charlotte and St. Louis could be a thorn in the side of Marquette and Memphis. There's a big difference between being second in your division as opposed to fourth in the league -- it's a psychological perception and it also has a material effect on your draw in the conference tournament. By contrast, in the SEC and Atlantic 10, teams in the weaker division will catch a break and won't be as good as their record and placement might suggest: so look twice at Mississippi State and LSU in the weaker SEC West as well as St. Joseph's (whose rep is almost entirely off of that one early win over Gonzaga) in the weaker A-10 East.
Stanford has a chance to snatch the Pac-10 title right away when they travel to Arizona on Saturday. (The Cardinal doesn't usually do well against teams with lots of individual quickness, though.) North Carolina can't afford to start ACC play 0-2 at home, so a win over Georgia Tech on Sunday is a must. The lousy preseason will be a forgotten memory if Michigan State can get off to a good start in Big 10 play with a win at Wisconsin on Saturday. Vanderbilt gets to find out right away how real it is with an early visit to Rupp Arena to play Kentucky on Saturday (and don't be shocked if they pull off the upset). The WAC Wars get under way with Nevada visiting Hawaii on Monday and then hosting SMU on Saturday. Don't expect Oklahoma to be able to handle Connecticut on the road on Sunday.
Georgia Tech is turning back into a pumpkin after two straight bad starts in hostile road environments. All those 3-pointers that are back-breakers when you're rolling and extending a lead are bad shots when you're behind and need to score on a key possession. North Carolina's G Raymond Felton was able to withstand the pressure on the perimeter, so a vital part of the Yellow Jackets' game (points off turnovers) wasn't there. C Sean May(28p) exploited GT's soft interior defense (like Georgia was able to do the week before). There's no 39-0 season in store for Tech (as fan signs were proclaiming in December), but the poor starts on the road aren't necessarily a permanent flaw. The preseason wasn't a fluke; but conference play is a different animal.
Stanford turned in a great performance on the road against Arizona to take an early stranglehold on the Pac-10 title. 'T Josh Childress is back and made the winning tip-in to edge Arizona State on Thursday before leading the Cardinal with 19 points on Saturday. The Wildcats started the game only 4-for-29 from the floor and finished with 36% shooting overall (including 4-for-21 on 3-pointers). Stanford was up 68-48 with 4 minutes left before a late flurry made the final score a more respectable 82-72.
Having won their toughest road game in such convincing fashion, coupled with a down year in the conference, it's tempting to consider the possibility of an undefeated regular season for Stanford. They're not really a streaky team and they have good balance inside/outside and offense/defense -- it could happen, but as the hype grows always bear in mind how weak the Pac-10 is this year. Among the other teams that came through the preseason without a loss, Creighton probably has a shot, being in the relatively weak MVC. They don't have any name wins at all to suggest they're really a Top-25 team, though (but things are going as well as you could expect in the Year After Kyle Korver). Cincinnati is still a paper juggernaut so far, but their road game at Marquette on Wednesday should give a better indication of just how good they are. The Conference USA tournament is at their place this year, but they'd have to beat Louisville twice to get there unbeaten. The brutal ACC schedule figures to trip up Wake Forest somewhere along the way (even if they could get past the monster week ahead: Tuesday at Texas and Saturday at Duke). Pittsburgh doesn't seem quite strong enough to run the table in the Big East (especially not with a road game at Connecticut down the road). If St. Joseph's can win at Xavier on Saturday, they could have a shot; they only play Dayton at home later on, but their 13-0 record isn't as dominant as it probably looks (and the Atlantic 10 tournament is at Dayton). SEC is just too strong for Mississippi State to expect any such lofty heights. (The Bulldogs' reality check comes on Tuesday when they host Kentucky.)
Below the rankings, N.C. State (drubbed BYU and won at Florida State), Iowa (beat Purdue at home) and Iowa State (beat Missouri and Nebraska in conference) all had fine weeks. Fourth-place in the Big East would be a good result for Notre Dame and they stayed on track with wins over West Virginia and Villanova. (Anything they can do at Pittsburgh Monday night or at home against Syracuse on Saturday would be a bonus.) Wisconsin can run away with the Big 10 title with a win at Purdue on Wednesday.
"Great Heart Will Not Be Denied"
Wake Forest wasn't able to win either big road game last
week and easily fell from the ranks of the unbeaten. Texas
ran with them and had better frontcourt scorers, winning 94-81;
Duke slowed them down and their inside strength forced the
Demon Deacons to abandon their 3-guard attack, as the Blue Devils won 84-72.
Mississippi State got down big at home to
Kentucky but rallied to take the lead only to lose at the
buzzer for its first loss, 67-66. Creighton succumbed
in the most disappointing fashion, losing 82-73 at Northern Iowa.
Stanford stayed unblemished, beating
California, and hosts UCLA and USC this
week. Cincinnati's defense carried it past
Marquette on the road, 85-73. The biggest test so far comes
Wednesday at Louisville and the more physical Bearcats
just might keep it going. Pittsburgh hung on one more week
without a loss with a squeak win over Notre Dame and a
decision over Rutgers; but don't expect them to survive road games at
Connecticut (Monday night) and at
Syracuse on Saturday.
The other team that's still undefeated is the coolest of them all. Does anybody remember the 1981 NBA Finals when Moses Malone proclaimed, "I can take four guys off the street in Houston and still beat the Celtics"? (Boston won the title, but credit Moses with one of the all-time great lines of trash talk.) They don't talk trash, but that line reminds me quite a bit of this year's St. Joseph's team: they have two fantastic guards and the rest of the team might as well be guys they pulled out of the stands. G Delonte West(33p) shot 12-for-12 from the floor and G Jameer Nelson had 28 points of his own as they pulled the Hawks back from a 9-point deficit to beat Xavier on the road, 81-73, in the toughest game on their schedule. They're not really a Top-10 team, but are they ever so great to watch.
The ACC and SEC teams have a big advantage in perception because they have plenty of brand name teams on their schedules on which they can make their reputations. Give Georgia credit for snapping Kentucky's 19-game conference win streak, but don't forget that they've lost by 20 to South Carolina, Tennessee and Winthrop. Maryland gets credit for beating North Carolina and then Georgia Tech gets credit for beating the Terps. Meanwhile, Gonzaga won't get credit for another win until it plays in ESPN's BRACKET BUSTER SATURDAY in February (probably against Creighton).
The single-division alignment finds Marquette in a four-way tie for sixth place in Conference USA while Notre Dame is in two-way for seventh place in the Big East. Elsewhere, as forgettable as their preseasons have been, both Michigan State (in a five-way tie for first in the Big 10) and Missouri (in a four-way tie for fourth in the Big 12) have started off 2-1 in conference play.
Well under the radar, hats off to Georgia State guard Herman Favors: he sank two free throws with no time left to beat league-leading Troy State 84-83. Four teams are playing well in the Atlantic Sun (Central Florida, Troy State, Georgia State and Belmont), but it's a league where the only way to make the NCAAs will be to win the conference tournament (in Nashville at Belmont).
It's the biggest week in the MAC coming up with Kent State (10-3) hosting Western Michigan (12-1) Wednesday and then Toledo (10-3) Sunday. Having already lost at home to N.C. State, two home wins this week are a must for Florida State if it wants to be the 7th team from the ACC to get an NCAA tournament bid.
Un-Invincible
Two more teams fell from the unbeaten ranks last week. Pittsburgh came up short, 68-65, on the road at Connecticut last Monday night (but, by week's end, the Panthers came away looking better off than the Huskies). Pitt followed up their near miss with a suffocating 66-45 win at Syracuse while UConn fell at home to defense-minded Providence, 66-56. The Friars were able to clamp down on everyone except for C Emeka Okafor(19p13r), while F Ryan Gomes(26p12r) had his way for "the other PU". Meanwhile, Louisville destroyed Cincinnati 93-66 at home, handing the Bearcats their first loss. "Pressing teams don't like to be pressed" goes the adage, but it was the Cardinals' D in the halfcourt (and UC's lack of execution) that was just as much of a factor.
It's Year Three of The Return Of The Kings and the coronation is right on schedule. Both Rick Pitino at Louisville and Bob Knight at Texas Tech have the inside track to the regular season titles in their respective conferences. UofL appears ready to win Conference USA for the first time. A couple of wins this week (against Texas at home Monday night, and on the road at Oklahoma State on Saturday) would cement TXT's place atop the Big 12. Yes, Kansas is 4-0 in the conference, but they lost at home to 11-8 Richmond last week and don't look to be as dominant as you expect from a "name brand" team.
Providence won on the road at Connecticut; Oklahoma State (featuring the latest in a long line of tough Cowboy bbGs: Joey Graham) won on the road at Texas; and Mississippi State (featuring Baylor-transfer F Lawrence Roberts) won on the road at Florida -- in fact, the Bulldogs are still only one-point shy of an undefeated season.
After starting out 11-0, Wake Forest now sits in fifth place in the topsy-turvy ACC. There's nothing particularly wrong with the Demon Deacons, but in their losses teams have been strong enough on the inside against them to get C Eric Williams in foul trouble and force coach Skip Prosser to go away from the three-guard offense that made them great at the outset. The frontcourt cadre of Vytas Danelius, Kyle Visser, Chris Ellis and Jamaal Levy is hardly no-account (but Wake doesn't have the same balance of inside muscle with outside quickness/shooting that top-ranked Duke has put together). For the moment, it's actually N.C. State that's in second place in the league after holding off Georgia Tech 76-72 at home. Florida State kept itself in the conversation with two dramatic comeback victories at home, 90-81 in overtime against North Carolina (which led by 24 in the first half), and then 75-70 over Wake Forest.
Yeah, I know St. Joseph's won 114-63 on the road against the second-place team in their division, St. Bonaventure; but the Bonnies are only 6-10 overall and even with Dayton's looks-good-on-paper 16-3 record and Richmond's upsets at Kansas and Xavier last week, the Atlantic 10 is pretty weak underneath the first few teams. (And, like SJU, Stanford keeps rolling unbeaten through the weak Pac-10.)
Kent State staked its claim as MAC Daddy with two solid home wins over the two next best teams, Western Michigan and Toledo. Air Force drubbed BYU and can solidify its lead in the Mountain West race with a win over visiting Utah on Monday night. Georgia Tech hosts Duke on Saturday, but the Blue Devils' balance should prove too much for the Yellow Jackets to overcome. (Even as Arizona-transfer G Will Bynum has blossomed for GT, the delicate balance of that multi-'tweener attack featured in the preseason has been slightly altered and they've yet to play a complete game in conference the way they were able to do out of conference.)
On Sunday, ESPN will announce the pairings for its BRACKET BUSTER SATURDAY [February 21st] slate of games. This year, no fewer than 46 teams from the Western Athletic (WAC), Missouri Valley (MVC), Horizon, Mid-American (MAC), Big West, Southern (SoCon), Ohio Valley (OVC) and Sun Belt all will vie for the "privilege" of eliminating each other from any chance at an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. Throw in Gonzaga and Manhattan for good measure and you have a made-for-TV event that's not good for any of the teams involved (except, maybe, if you can pull off a road win over the 'Zags). The most likely "marquee" matchup figures to be Creighton at Gonzaga (but the Bluejays aren't even in first place in their own league -- Southern Illinois is). Too bad the Atlantic Sun teams aren't entered; the top four -- Central Florida, Georgia State, Troy State and Belmont -- are all enjoying fine seasons and could make some noise come tournament time.
The Second Wave
Duke's distribution of talent stood it in good stead against Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets' perimeter talent was able to take G J.J. Redick out of it for most of the game, but they couldn't turn over G Chris Duhon. On the inside, even though C Luke Schenscher had a very good game (18p), the inside strength of F Shelden Williams(16p) and F Shavlik Randolph(10p) and the overall game of 'T Luol Deng(22p10r) were too much to overcome. This year's Blue Devil squad may not be as impressive as past editions raining three-pointers and winning by 30, but it's much more fundamentally solid and a more difficult prospect to beat. For its part, Tech didn't play badly but if you can force them to play station-to-station, their halfcourt game (on offense and defense) is still a little shaky.
Stanford's F Justin Davis sat out with a sore knee and the Cardinal found itself down 19 points on the road against Oregon. But G Chris Hernandez scored all 22 of his points in the second half and reserve F Matt Haryasz had 19 points in place of Davis as SU kept its undefeated season alive. A game like that is good for Stanford, because just rolling through the weak Pac-10 would otherwise have set them up for a fall. The unbeaten streak is a distraction but if you can sweep the league, do it. On the other side of the country, St. Joseph's keeps going as well. (Don't expect a Big 5 game against Villanova on Monday night to be any problem.)
Health issues sidelined a couple of coaches. Rick Pitino only missed one game for Louisville, but Rick Majerus is out permanently for Utah. The Cardinals fell at home to Marquette, thanks to hot-shooting 'T Steve Novak's 8 three-pointers. The Utes fell on the road to league-leading Air Force before recovering to beat BYU at home.
We're pretty much halfway through to conference play at this point. The last of the traditional big rivalry games take place this week, but thanks to the insurgence of a second wave of less heralded teams, none of the marquee matchups is for first place in the conference. Charlotte rode G Brendan Plavich's 5 three-pointers to a road upset of Cincinnati. At this point, UAB is actually in second-place in the single-division Conference USA and Marquette is tied for sixth. In the Big East, Seton Hall is tied for fourth in the single-division alignment. Iowa State (thanks to the easier "north division" schedule) is in fourth place in the Big 12.
Syracuse has two big road games this week: Monday at Connecticut and Saturday at Providence. Kentucky and Florida battle Tuesday to maintain what's left of their mystique -- by week's end one or both may be reeling. Arizona travels to Stanford in one of the last real stumbling blocks to the Cardinal's undefeated season. Southern Illinois puts its gaudy 16-2/10-0 record to the test when it travels to 16-2/8-2 Creighton on Saturday.
The Illusion Of Stability
The knee injury to F Justin Davis (who's out at least another week) has probably made the pursuit of an undefeated season easier to deal with for Stanford than St. Joseph's. The Cardinal knows it's missing a key player and goes into every game right now knowing a win isn't guaranteed so there's no "playing not to lose" factor involved. For the Hawks, there's more pressure because there's every expectation that they should win each remaining game. 'T Nick Robinson's halfcourt shot at the buzzer saved the day for Stanford in its 80-77 win over Arizona, but SU played solidly throughout and didn't panic when UofA took a late 77-73 lead. Meanwhile, SJU is having fun rolling through its games. (A big test -- on paper, anyway -- comes Wednesday when 19-3 Dayton comes to visit. The Flyers' record looks good, and they do have a tall front line that ought to have success against the Hawks, but that game will be won on the perimeter where SJU has a huge advantage.)
Things are starting to settle down as far as expectations matching results. In the SEC, rising South Carolina and Vanderbilt played well but couldn't break through on the road at Kentucky (a 65-64 winner) and Florida (an 81-71 winner), respectively. In fact, only Memphis was able to successfully crash the party with a 62-58 win over Louisville that landed the Tigers in a first-place tie in Conference USA with the Cardinals and Cincinnati.
Kansas finally faced one of the real
Big 10 powers,
Texas Tech, and throttled them 96-77. (Like
UNC, KU at home can look as good as the rest of the Big
Boys.) The usual suspects have finally risen to the top of the
Big 10. That's actually a sign of mediocrity that the
lesser teams who got the jump on the likes of
Michigan State (now in first place) and
Illinois weren't solid enough to hold onto their advantage.
After appearing to be such a disappointment (which, frankly, it still is),
California is actually in second place now
in the woeful Pac-10.
Because of the rivalry factor, you can overlook Cincinnati's 71-69 loss at 12-9 Xavier in the CROSSTOWN SHOOTOUT game; but there's no excusing Wisconsin's 69-51 blowout loss at 9-11 Northwestern. Keep in mind suspect results like that when you're looking for name teams that may be ripe for an upset come tournament time (and there will be plenty this year). Four WAC teams are playing well enough to be indistinguishable at this point: Hawaii, UTEP, Rice and Nevada. Both 17-2 Southern Illinois and 17-3 Creighton looked good in the Salukis 61-60 win over the host Bluejays. Air Force's Princeton-style gimmick game is sure to catch someone napping in the first round. Wisconsin-Milwaukee is solidly in control of the so-so Horizon. Both Kent State and Western Michigan are playing solidly inside the MAC, but neither was able to make much of an impression out of conference in the preseason.
We're still a month away from tournament time, but seeding and bracket placement are going to be important factors this year. The East plays the West in the national semifinals this year, so we won't get The Ultimate Showdown between a once-beaten Duke team against an undefeated Stanford squad in the national championship game. The Cardinal is likely slated be the top seed in the West barring unforeseen catastrophe. The big problem comes in the East where 4 teams (Duke, St. Joseph's, Connecticut and Pittsburgh) all have top-seed credentials. There's no way the NCAA Seeding Committee can ship an undefeated St. Joseph's team out of the East. If Pittsburgh can run the table from here on out in the Big East (including beating UConn this Saturday and win the conference tournament), you'd think a one-loss season would keep them at home as well. But Duke's clout will probably keep them slated for yet another regional in East Rutherford, NJ unless both St. Joe's and Pitt win out and Duke fails to win the ACC tournament. (Common sense would ship Duke to the Southeast Regional in Atlanta, but the ACC champ always gets its 'drathers -- and Coach K likes playing in NJ to help recruiting.) A Mississippi State team with one loss (quite possible) will surely stay in the Southeast. Top seed or not, you can write it down that Kentucky will find a way to stay on a path to come through Atlanta (more clout thanks to the spending power of all those UK fans who'll travel to support the 'Cats). That leaves the "lucky loser" in the East that gets shipped out as the top seed in the Midwest Regional in St. Louis as the elite team with the clearest path to the national championship.
What does it all mean? Maybe this: The winner of UConn@Pitt on Saturday just might wind up as your national champ in March.
Tremors In The East
What else does N.C. State have to do before getting its proper respect? The Wolfpack is 9-2 in the best conference in the country (only losing on the road in Durham and by 2 in Chapel Hill) and now they've knocked off #1 Duke 78-74 in Raleigh. This year, it's NCSU that has the multi-'tweener attack (including a center who can drain 3-pointers) -- that's usually what we expect out of Duke, but the '04 Blue Devils are very traditional with players' talents restricted to their position. Coach Herb Sendek's spread offense exposed the individual defensive weakness of the Duke big men: C Marcus Melvin(18p) scored inside and outside, 'T Elian Evtimov(15p) beat C Shelden Williams off the dribble and 'T Julius Hodge(18p) shot over the smaller Duke guards, and then the Wolfpack made their free throws down the stretch to seal the win. Outside of the guard-oriented/finesse of the ACC, N.C. State wasn't that dominant in the preseason, but a win like this can send a team on to another level of confidence.
Wake Forest used the home crowd to come back from 12 points down to overtake visiting Cincinnati. Just like Texas had been able to do a month ago, the Bearcats ran with the Demon Deacons and scored well inside. This time around, though, C Eric Williams established a presence in the paint to turn things around and freshman G Chris Paul(30p4a7r) did all the rest. Cincinnati's stats on paper make them look like a Top-10 team, but on the court, when they've met up with talented teams that aren't overwhelmed by their pressure, they have relented and been unable to hang in (read: lots of talent, but not enough leadership at point guard).
Some name teams are floundering: Kansas was blown out twice (at Oklahoma State and at Nebraska). The old player/new coach dynamic is fine when things are going well, but there's a lot of strain when things are going bad. Will the Jayhawks trust Bill Self's remedy, or will they wonder "what would Roy have done"? Florida dropped another home game, this time to LSU. Athletic teams (like the Tigers) can overcome the Gators' slow-footed skill players. LSU has two great frontline players in C Jaime Lloreda and freshman F Brandon Bass, but their shortish (5-11) backcourt is only just good enough not to do them damage. Texas Tech lost badly on the road at Oklahoma, and Michigan State was blown out at Illinois. This is a year where "name brands" won't mean as much as usual come tournament time.
Underneath the rankings, some regular season races turned on big games in lesser conferences. Boston University avenged an earlier home loss to Vermont and beat them the second time around to take the lead in the America East. Princeton lost badly at home to Pennsylvania but still has a one-game lead over the Quakers in the Ivy League race (and, remember, the Ivies have the weird stance that head-to-head doesn't count as tiebreaker at season's end). Despite a terrible preseason, Austin Peay has rolled undefeated through the OVC and beat Murray State last week in their only in-season meeting. Utah State had been cruising through the Big West until Pacific tripped them up last week.
ESPN's made-for-TV, 46-team "BRACKET BUSTER SATURDAY" is here. It's billed as an opportunity for teams from lesser conferences to beef up their strength of schedule and thus have a better chance at getting an at-large bid into the NCAA tournament in case they lose their conference's automatic bid. That sounds nice, but it's not real. Especially this season, with so many of the major conferences exhibiting a lot of depth, virtually none of these teams will get an at-large bid. They're not even eliminating each other from contention, frankly. Teams that could use the exposure, Utah State, Central Florida and Troy State (from the Atlantic Sun) aren't even entered. So don't expect to see anyone "winning their way into the tournament", but the matchups should be entertaining. Disappointingly, Gonzaga is playing at Tulsa (in what must be a return-the-favor matchup from last year). For star power, check out bbG Kirk Snyder (Nevada), G Luis Flores (Manhattan), and G Tim Smith (East Tennessee State). In general, look for the stronger teams from the stronger conference to prevail, in this order: MVC (Southern Illinois, Creighton, Wichita State, SW Missouri State), WAC (Nevada, Hawaii, Rice), MAC (Western Michigan, Kent State, Toledo), Horizon League (Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Illinois-Chicago, Wisconsin-Green Bay), Southern (East Tennessee State, College of Charleston). In most cases, the stronger team has been given the home game, so don't expect a lot of "upsets".
[By the way, if there are any at-large bids up for grabs left over after the major conferences are done, they should go to Southern Illinois/Creighton, Nevada/Hawaii/Rice, and Air Force (but not Utah or BYU).]
Wake Up Call
Below the race for the conference title, teams are jockeying for postseason seeding and building their cases for an at-large bid into the NCAAs. It has been hard for teams in the major conferences to sustain much momentum due to the exceptional depth we've seen this season. In some cases, teams have been chewed up and haven't survived the difficult schedule very well. Wake Forest was stumbling through a four-game losing streak last month, but now they've beaten Cincinnati (last week), Duke and Georgia Tech in succession. More impressive still is the multifaceted attack they've featured. Freshman G Chris Paul was the star against the Bearcats and Blue Devils, but he was no factor against the Yellow Jackets. No problem. How about G Justin Gray(27p) and G Taron Downey(16p) instead? Not to mention C Eric Williams and 'T Jamaal Levy. WFU has one of the most talented rosters in the nation and they're in a flow right now. Illinois seems to be playing the best ball in the Big 10 at the moment (although the Illini still trail Michigan State in the standings).
The depth in Conference USA seems to be tearing the likes of Cincinnati and Louisville apart at the seams. Both teams suffered rout losses before struggling against each other in a lackluster 66-61 overtime Bearcat home win. Memphis beat UAB to take over the lead in the conference race, but the Tigers aren't world-beaters, by any means. Florida is only sitting at 6-6 in the SEC and Oklahoma is only 6-6 in the Big 12. Arizona is 9-6 in the Pac-10 (although that's good enough for second place).
ESPN's BRACKET BUSTER SATURDAY made-for-TV event didn't reveal any secret Sweet 16-calibre sleepers, but give those few teams that did shine their due (for this week, anyway). Most impressive was probably Manhattan, whose smooth backcourt dominated host Wisconsin-Milwaukee early before coasting to an 83-76 road win. Kent State's barrage of 3-pointers broke open a competitive game as they pulled away from visiting Creighton 70-55. More might have been expected from home-standing Southern Illinois (22-2) than a 66-62 win over visiting Hawaii. An 83-78(OT) win isn't that impressive for Western Michigan over visiting College of Charleston, but the Broncos have a versatile lineup with size, speed and shooting that can compete against any style opponent. Wichita State beat visiting Austin Peay handily 62-47; East Tennessee State won on the road against weak Fresno State 66-62; Rice came back at home against Louisiana-Lafayette 81-76; and Nevada edged Toledo 60-58. None of the other 15 games (including Gonzaga's 76-56 rout at Tulsa) featured opponents worth noticing. After 23 "showcase" games, did anyone really markedly improve their shot at an at-large bid? Doubtful. The home team went 14-9. The MAC was only 7-6 overall (but 3-1 among the top teams with any legitimate postseason aspirations), the MVC was 6-4 (3-1 at the top), the WAC was 2-3 (2-1 at the top) and the Horizon was 3-5 (1-2 at the top). Not much of a definitive result for any one conference.
Not many big games left that aren't rematches. Kansas has the biggest week coming up, though, visiting Texas Monday night and then hosting Oklahoma on Saturday.
Wanda Has Been Cancelled
What little bounce any teams got from BRACKET BUSTER SATURDAY was immediately squandered. Southern Illinois did manage to escape with a 72-71 home win over Bradley, keeping them unbeaten inside the MVC; but Kent State lost twice (at Buffalo and at Akron); Manhattan lost at Rider; Western Michigan lost at Toledo; and East Tennessee State lost 91-89 at College of Charleston. Those were the prime candidates for at-large bids should they fail to win their conference tournaments, but that's done now. The major conferences will get all of the at-large bids and even some of those deserving teams might get shut out if Gonzaga or Southern Illinois goof around and get bounced from their conference tournaments this week.
This week features what amount to knockout games for teams in the major conferences. Maryland's numbers are great on paper, but the Terrapins are tied for seventh at 5-9 in the ACC. Even if they do pull off a win at N.C. State on Wednesday, they absolutely must beat Virginia at home on Sunday to ride the league reputation into a Wanda (at-large bid). Missouri at Texas Tech on Tuesday will likely eliminate the losing team from a spot in the NCAAs. After the 82-46 thumping that Wisconsin gave them, Purdue may already be on the outside looking in -- a bad week could find the Boilermakers in ninth place in the Big 10. Because of deceiving paper ratings, the Monday matchup of Utah and BYU will probably secure a bid for the winner. (If it were up to me, though, I'd take four WAC teams before I took either of those two.) Five WAC teams (UTEP, Nevada, Hawaii, Rice and even Boise State) are having fine seasons, but they're beating each other up in conference (without the mega-exposure that saves the likes of the ACC teams) so their numbers look bad on paper. (Whichever teams Wanda does smile upon on SELECTION SUNDAY, expect them to make some noise.)
The lesser conferences get going with their tournaments this week. Gonzaga (WCC) and Southern Illinois (MVC) will never have as many people pulling for them as they will the next few days. Despite ruining East Tennessee State's perfect conference record, College of Charleston got the short end of the tiebreakers and will have to win four times to claim the Southern Conference crown and get its ticket punched. The Atlantic Sun teams didn't participate in BRACKET BUSTER SATURDAY so they're probably the best-kept secret around. Belmont had some big preseason wins (Missouri, Air Force and Austin Peay) and they're only the third-best team in the league, behind Troy State and Central Florida. The expected finals in the Horizon (Illinois-Chicago at Wisconsin-Milwaukee) and the OVC (Austin Peay-Murray State) should be worth a look, featuring two deserving teams fighting for one NCAA tournament spot.
I've never heard of a league allowing teams to play different number of regular season games, but that's just what the Sun Belt did. The 11-team league has 5 teams in the East Division and 6 teams in the West. Everyone plays each division team home-and-home and each non-division team once, giving the East teams a 14-game schedule and the West teams a 15-game schedule. In the MAC, which has a 6-team East Division and a 7-team West Division, the East teams play one West team twice and all others once so everyone winds up with an 18-game schedule. Go figure. (In any case, even if Louisiana-Lafayette wins the Sun Belt tourney, don't expect much from them beyond that.)
In summary: the NIT is going to be awfully good this year.
Stumbling Home
On Thursday, Stanford staged a miracle finish at Washington State: down by 5 with 25 seconds left, the Cardinal came up with your routine four-point play, five-second count turnover, and mad scramble three-point heave at the buzzer for a 63-61 win to preserve their unbeaten streak. No such luck on Saturday, however, as the Washington Huskies ended things with a 75-62 upset. Yes, F Justin Davis should be back for the postseason, but his presence wouldn't have helped guard any of those three-point shooters who made the difference. Elsewhere, Georgia Tech played with determination for a full 40 minutes and ended Duke's 41-game home win streak. (In the greater scheme of things, however, Duke is still "the best team from the best conference" and winds up with the season-ending #1 ranking.)
Oklahoma State held off Texas and wound up with the outright Big 12 title. It's been an off year for lean 'tweeners nationwide, but coach Eddie Sutton's Cowboys feature a pair of Baby Bull Guards (Tony Allen and Joey Graham) who make up in muscle what the team lacks in size. Wisconsin's overtime win at Michigan State handed the outright Big 10 title to Illinois. DePaul made it a 5-way tie atop the Conference USA final standings (along with Cincinnati, Memphis, Charlotte and UAB) -- Louisville, which isn't having a bad season, wound up in sixth place and the single-division alignment left 16-10 Marquette in eight place. Single-division alignment in the Big East pushed 16-11 Notre Dame down to seventh place. Meanwhile, two-division alignment in the Atlantic 10 gave 15-12 Temple a first-round bye in the conference tournament.
Gonzaga just barely avoided an upset in the semifinals of the WCC tournament, thus sparing a Wanda At-Large bid for some nice deserving major conference team (e.g., Maryland). Sure enough, though, Southern Illinois went down in the MVC semis to fourth-seeded SW Missouri State. On paper, the Salukis still look good enough to get in, but that's probably bad news for the likes of Missouri (which dropped two big games to Texas Tech and Kansas). (Washington's big win over Stanford, along with their second-place league finish and sweep of Arizona might mean the Pac-10 gets three teams instead of two. Bad news for LSU, which isn't the same team without injured C Jaime Lloreda.) The semifinals and finals of the Atlantic Sun tournament were as great as you could ask for; Central Florida emerged on top from the Battle Royale.
Well out of the spotlight, hats off to Baylor for completing a difficult season in the aftermath of last year's tragedy. New coach Scott Drew lost three key players to transfer who turned out to be major contributors on national ranked teams: F Lawrence Roberts (Mississippi State) is likely to be named SEC Player of the Year; G John Lucas (Oklahoma State) is a candidate for Big 12 Player of the Year; and G Kenny Taylor (Texas) has provided good minutes in the backcourt for the Longhorns. Despite those losses, Baylor finished 8-21 overall and at 3-13, avoided last place in the very tough Big 12 (ahead of Texas A&M).
The major conference tournaments are all that we have left at this point, but a lot can still happen. I don't think anyone is completely assured of a #1-seed even at this late date. As always, there's plenty of hype over "The Greatest Quarterfinal Friday Ever" on tap in the ACC tournament. Only problem is, it's in Greensboro and the four North Carolina schools are evenly spaced out in the bracket. A Big Four semifinal on Saturday is very much a possibility. The five-way tie in Conference USA left Charlotte as the odd team out of a first-round bye. On a neutral court, this could be a great tournament; instead, look for host Cincinnati to have the home-crowd advantage. The Dallas crowd may make the third time the charm for Texas over Oklahoma State if they both reach the Big 12 final. It hasn't really been settled which is the best team in the Big 10, so that should provide some good drama in Indianapolis. What looked like a fantastic season at the start in the SEC degenerated into some pretty mediocre play by the end of things. Hope that Atlanta gets a Kentucky-Mississippi State final (but be shocked if the Wildcats don't run away with it yet again). Dayton's home-court advantage actually makes the Atlantic 10 tournament more interesting; the two-division alignment gave St. Joseph's a bad draw considering they went undefeated (but look for Batman and Robin to keep the streak going through to the NCAAs). The best candidate for a fantastically competitive (and fairest) tournament is the Big East in New York; lots of teams playing well and hometown St. John's didn't even make the draw.
It's too bad so many games go on simultaneously this week. The quality of play is very high, but these games often get short-shrift in our memories because they come right on top of each other and then so quickly get replaced by the NCAAs a week later. Don't get ahead of yourself. Enjoy the moment. Conference tournament play is its own reward.
Self-Determination
This year's Bubble-Busters were Gonzaga (WCC) and Southern Illinois (MVC) for sure, and maybe also Air Force (MWC), Western Michigan (MAC) and Utah State (Big West). After a scare in the semifinals, Gonzaga easily won the WCC final. Western Michigan also won the MAC crown (looking very solid in their "road" win over Kent State in the final). But Southern Illinois, Air Force and Utah State all lost. That meant potentially 3 Wandas were lost as well. Northern Iowa (the MVC champ) and Pacific (the Big West champ) certainly would not have gotten into the NCAAs any other way. The Mountain West got three bids: Utah (the tourney champ), Air Force and BYU. Utah and BYU were essentially indistinguishable behind USAF, but I would have figured that the Utes' semifinal win over the Cougars would have been the knockout blow to eliminate them from a bid. As it turned out, Utah State's gaudy 25-3 record and ranking in the national polls weren't enough to warrant a bid for the Aggies.
Three teams very loudly won their way into the tournament (each knocking off an eventual #1-seed) in the last two weeks of the season. Washington, which had ended Stanford's run at an unbeaten regular season in the final game, confirmed that win and its second-place finish in the Pac-10 were no fluke: the Huskies made the tourney final (beating Arizona along the way for the third time this season) and played the Cardinal tough yet again before losing 77-66. WashU is a team of young, athletic "no-minds" (to use Dan Wachspress' term) from whom no one expected much of anything this season so in every game the pressure is on their opponents, not them. (This squad is not unlike that 1997 Arizona team that was a fifth-place team in the regular season but just kept on winning all the way to the national championship.) In danger of getting leapfrogged for a bid by Arizona and left out of the picture a couple of weeks back, the Huskies boldly made it impossible to deny them a Wanda. At the end of January, Xavier was 10-9 overall, 2-5 in the Atlantic 10 and headed nowhere. Now winners of 13 out of 14 (including drubbing St. Joseph's 87-67 in the quarters of the A-10 tourney, ending the Hawks' unbeaten streak), the Musketeers won the conference crown beating host Dayton in the title game. (It didn't hurt that Dayton is only an hour away from Cincinnati, so the Flyers enjoyed as much home crowd support as anyone.) You'd think that knocking off of top-ranked, unbeaten teams would be the best story of going from likely exclusion to certain inclusion, ... but no. Top billing goes to the Terrapins of Maryland. Not even 10 days ago, the Terps were in desperate need of a home win over Virginia just to avoid eighth place in the ACC. They won that game, and then proceeded to beat third-seeded Wake Forest, second-seeded N.C. State (coming back from 18 points down to do so) and stopped top-seeded and top-ranked Duke's bid for a sixth-consecutive ACC tournament crown, beating the Blue Devils 95-87 in overtime. Tournament MVP G John Gilchrist is strong, quick and a dead-eye shooter when it's all flowing. The high quality of play in the ACC this year promised something special in the tournament and it sure delivered.
Connecticut and Pittsburgh staged another classic Big East final. C Emeka Okafor's continuing back problem kept him out of the Huskies' first two tournament games and it remains a worry whether he can be 100% for 6 games in the NCAAs. Both teams played well enough to be considered #1-seeds in the postseason. (Somehow Pitt managed to be seeded #3, and 12th overall by my reading of the S-curve -- how is that possible?) Oklahoma State beat Texas for the third time this year in the Big 12 final. Also going 3-0 on the season were Kentucky over both Florida and South Carolina, Wisconsin over Michigan State, Kansas over Missouri and Washington over Arizona. Georgia, which had inexplicably beaten Kentucky twice, couldn't pull off the trifecta. The SEC tournament was held in Atlanta, but it may as well have been the Kentucky Invitational with all the crowd support the 'Cats get from their legion of fans who'll travel anywhere to watch them play. No less than 20,000 folks were decked out in blue.
As for the NCAA tournament draw, whether St. Joseph's wound up with a #1- or #2-seed, as well as whether Gonzaga got a #2- or a #3-seed are cosmetic to me. The shocker to me is Pittsburgh's receiving a #3 seed (after a 3-point loss to Connecticut). How the Panther's 29-4 season could be rated below Georgia Tech's 23-9, Texas' 23-7 and N.C. State's 20-9 -- none of whom won their conference regular season titles -- is beyond me. I also don't agree at all with giving a bid to 17-12 Alabama or 20-12 Richmond, but the NCAA Seeding Committee stuck to its emphasis over strength of schedule (even above wins and losses, apparently). I'd have rather seen Florida State or Missouri get in than either of those two teams.
Under the Pod System, it really is a new (and worse) era for the NCAA tournament. What was once anathema is now the preferred outcome in placing teams: giving as many teams as possible the closest location to their home fan base. Yes, it's a blessing for fans who want to see their favorite teams play their most important games in person; but it seriously undermines the integrity of the tournament. Kentucky would get to play Washington in Columbus, OH (a stone's throw from Lexington); Gonzaga will be in Seattle should it face Michigan State; Cincinnati would be in Columbus to face Illinois; Kansas would play Providence in Kansas City; Wake Forest would get Florida in Raleigh; and Pitt would have to play Wisconsin in Milwaukee. At this level, the advantage of having an overwhelmingly supportive crowd is huge; on neutral courts the underdog would always get support if it was close to pulling off an upset. Don't look for it to happen here.
The NIT lineup looks pretty strong. (In fact, these are the kind of matchups I wish ESPN's BRACKET BUSTER SATURDAY could pull off: the also-rans in major conferences puttting it on the line against the best of the smaller leagues.) The format of the 40-team draw is a bit confusing, but here's the gist of it: 16 teams have to play "Opening Round"/64s games to get down to 8 spots where they'll join the 24 other teams who start out in "First Round"/32s games. The confusing part is that both the Opening Round/64s and First Round/32s take place overlapping one another so it's tough to tell which round you're watching. For example, the winner of Monday night's Marquette-Toledo game will have advanced to the Round of 16 before any teams have even played their Round of 64 games. Go figure.
Pod-iatry
Pittsburgh struggled, but managed to overcome its poor seeding and poor Pod placement, escaping with a 59-55 win over Wisconsin in Milwaukee. Texas figured out Princeton's puzzle in the second half and then outlasted North Carolina 78-75 in the second round. Wake Forest, of whom much was expected, survived two nail-biters against VCU and splash team Manhattan. Georgia Tech bolted to quick leads in both of its games only to let itself get bogged down and hang on by the barest of margins (but the best news is how the St. Louis Regional draw opened up for them for the next couple of rounds). Defending champ Syracuse affirmed it was no one-man team last year with big-time performances from G Gerry McNamara (43p against BYU) and F Hakim Warrick (26p9r against Maryland).
It was left to Vanderbilt and Alabama to uphold the honor of the 6-bid SEC after Florida (upset by Manhattan) and South Carolina fell in Round 1 and then regular-season and tournament champs Mississippi State and Kentucky were bounced out in Round 2. Vandy firmly beat Western Michigan, (the one mid-major seemingly with a chance to make a mark in the tournament) and then slipped past N.C. State in a fantastic game, 75-73. Alabama squeaked its way past paper-darlings Southern Illinois and then came back from down 13 in the second half to beat Stanford thanks to repeated trips to the free-throw line. Xavier continued its hot streak, racing past Louisville and Mississippi State with G Lionel Chalmers and 'T Romain Sato taking things into their individual hands. Nevada was undaunted in stunning Michigan State in Round 1, 72-66, and followed that up with a crushing 92-71 "road" rout of America's Sweethearts, Gonzaga, in Seattle, WA. 6-bid Conference USA wasn't having much of a show until UAB pulled off the biggest shocker of all: a 76-75 upset of overall top seed Kentucky.
The three teams whose gaudy records and head-to-head results made each other's reputations -- Stanford, Gonzaga and St. Joseph's -- turned out to be less than advertized in the Big Show. For both the Cardinal and the Bulldogs, their vulnerability to individual quickness proved their undoing (even sooner than their skeptics expected). Last year, a Sweet 16 result would have been viewed as a great success for the Hawks; this year -- with essentially the same squad -- it's barely accepted with a sigh of relief thanks to the hype of their season-long pursuit of an undefeated record. Media hype and "likability" of certain squads cloud an objective perception of their true level; and these three were at the top of that list.
The ACC bore out its reputation as the nation's best conference, placing 3 of its 6 teams in the Sweet 16 with a 9-3 record overall. The 6-bid Big East was right there with it, also earning 3 Sweet 16 spots, going 8-3 (not to mention 8-1 with 3 teams left in the NIT). Three of the four Big 12 teams made it through, with league teams posting a 7-1 mark so far. Only two Sweet 16 teams and a 6-4 record is an underachievement for the 6-bid SEC. Likewise, the 6 Conference USA teams only went 5-5 with only 1 team still alive. Bad seeding didn't help the Big 10: (3-2, 1 team left). The Pac-10's weak year was also borne out: (1-3, no Sweet 16 teams). The NCAA Seeding Committee saw something in the Atlantic 10 that many people didn't as 4 bids produced a 4-2 record and two Sweet 16 teams. Media perception to the contrary, the WAC outperformed the Mountain West: (2-1/one Sweet 16 team to 0-3/none). The MVC, MAC, Horizon and OVC, which have been able to make splashes in past years, were oh-for-this year. Manhattan(MAAC) provided the non-power conferences its only Sweet 16 team; and Pacific(Big West) gave them another victory.
In the NIT, Notre Dame has looked good at home twice, as have Michigan and Villanova. Hawaii and Boise State are still waving the WAC banner; and Florida State provided one of the few road wins. 'T Luke Jackson has been starring all season in obscurity but may get somewhat of a spotlight if Oregon can make it to NYC. George Mason(Colonial) is still alive thanks to two home wins.
Only the East Rutherford Regional features all four top seeds. The Pittsburgh-Oklahoma State semifinal might well have been the national championship under a different draw. Duke still has some work to do in the Atlanta Regional with surging Illinois, strong Texas and streaking Xavier all playing well. Connecticut was already the fan favorite in the Phoenix Regional and the loss of 3 of the 4 top seeds only makes it more so. Georgia Tech might well have pulled off a Gonzaga-Kentucky double anyway, but Nevada-Kansas looks a lot better.
Don't miss Luke Jackson vs. Chris Thomas later this week if Oregon advances to play Notre Dame in the NIT.
Brains And No-Brainers
Connecticut hasn't even had to sweat in the second half of any of its games in the tournament so far. Like an NBA team, the Huskies have been able to turn it on in the postseason after a regular season in which they didn't win their conference title. It hasn't been C Emeka Okafor doing the damage, particularly. Instead, G Ben Gordon has brought his A-game -- 36p vs. Alabama -- and it's been deadly outside shooting (9-for-11 on 3s to start the game on Saturday) that has been so devastating. Yes, the draw in the Phoenix Regional opened up for them, but Stanford would have had a lot of trouble with all that quickness on the perimeter.
Duke took the best shots of Illinois and Xavier and emerged with wins. The Illini had success running against the Blue Devils but 'T Luol Deng's versatility and the shooting of G J.J. Redick eventually won the day. Xavier gave Duke even more trouble, getting Duke's big men in foul trouble down low and also hitting from downtown. In fact, it was really some poor decisions and lack of poise on the part of the Musketeers in the closing stages that handed the win to Duke. (The collective gasp of 20,000 people in the Georgia Dome when Deng extended for a tip-in in the final minutes was something to experience.)
Oklahoma State emerged from their double-lodero matchup with Pittsburgh on the strength of the individual offensive talent of bbG Tony Allen. St. Joseph's great backcourt of G Jameer Nelson and G Delonte West starred against Wake Forest as freshman G Chris Paul was overmatched. The East Rutherford Regional final was a classic. All the stars came through. The final 10 minutes of OK State-St. Joe's was a see-saw battle of one big play following another. A 3-pointer by SJU's G Pat Carroll seemed to have won it until OSU's G John Lucas hit a bigger 3-pointer to seal the 64-62 win. Player of the Year Nelson missed a tying foul line jumper at the very end.
Georgia Tech's depth has served it well in the postseason. B.J. Elder sprained his ankle two minutes into the St. Louis Regional semifinal game against Nevada and was unable to be effective in either game this weekend. No matter. Pencil in 23 points from 'T Marvin Lewis on Friday and then 29 points from bbG Jarrett Jack on Sunday. It's not that the Yellow Jackets didn't miss Elder, though -- a few easy 3-pointers here and there would have made things a lot easier on them in both games. But give Tech tons of credit for the will power it showed in fighting to hold onto both of those games.
The A-10 proved it was better than advertized -- EPSN's Andy Katz actually called it a "mid-major" conference on the BRACKETOLOGY tournament preview show -- wound up with two teams in the Elite 8. At 6-4 in NCAAs and 1-3 in the NIT, they stack up well compared with the SEC (7-6, 0-3), Conference USA (5-6, 3-2) and the Big 10 (3-3, 3-2). The Big East displayed more depth of quality teams, going 10-5 in the NCAAs and 9-3 in the NIT and the Big 12 was also strong (10-3, 6-4), but the top quality performance still belongs to the ACC with 2 teams in the Final Four and a 14-4 record in the big tournament (but only 2-2 in the little one). We've never had an all-ACC national championship game -- [the Big 10, Big East and Big 12(8) have done it] -- and neither team is the favorite in the semifinals based on the form they've shown so far, but it could still happen. For all the praise of its superior perimeter game, Duke will have a tough time shutting down Connecticut's outside attack. Georgia Tech (which actually has the better perimeter personnel) will face a different problem: Jarrett Jack's size is a big factor in his ability to be effective scoring in the lane so far, but he won't have that advantage against the bbGs of Oklahoma State. If B.J. Elder isn't any better by Saturday, it's going to fall in the hands of G Will Bynum to provide the quickness and outside shooting to give Tech a chance to beat solid Oklahoma State.
Form says UConn over OKState, but the intangibles all point to Georgia Tech.
(In the NIT, Oregon's 'T Luke Jackson is the best player, but Michigan has the best team.)
Prove It [Every] Night
Except for the middle 30 minutes against Duke, Connecticut was on another level from everyone else in this tournament. You should feel good about it and want to heap them with praise, but instead they leave you a little bit empty. In a season where two teams flirted with going undefeated, UConn wasn't one of them. They didn't even win their conference regular season title. (Considering Pittsburgh's tournament performance, you have to say the Huskies just didn't give it their all until "it counted" in the NCAAs. That's disappointing. Yeah, they were in a tough conference, but this team lost at home -- to a squad that was bounced out in Round 1). You can't fault Okafor -- he's developed himself into a highly skilled player while excelling in the classroom far beyond most non-athletes and only failed to deliver when injury prevented it. Ben Gordon's "problem" was that he deferred too much to Okafor in games when they needed more from him. With the individual talent/skill he displayed in the NCAAs, you have to say that only he stopped himself in those regular season games when he failed to come through.
The Huskies have indisputably proven themselves to be the best team this season. But there's something unsatisfying about not showing this kind of form every single game. Put it this way: If St. Joseph's coach Phil Martelli had been at the helm of this year's Connecticut squad, do you think they'd have 6 losses?
As much as he deserves all the praise that is due him, Mike Krzyzewski's poor coaching job lost Duke that semifinal game. Would you rather have Nick Horvath trying to hold down the middle on his own at the end of the first half with a 10-point lead, or at the end of the second half with the game on the line? Coach K chose the latter for some reason. By leaving Shelden Williams in at the end of the first half to pick up his third foul along with Shavlik Randolph (while Emeka Okafor was sitting with 2 fouls), he paved the way for both Williams and Randolph (who was much more effective in this game) to foul out with 3 minutes left at the end of the game. When Randolph left the game, Duke led 75-67 and they went into a spread offense; they then proceeding to take one bad shot after another the rest of the way. UConn scored 12 straight points and only a meaningless 3 at the buzzer prevented a shutout in the final segment of the game. A stupendous lack of poise from the team that's supposed to be aces in that department.
You've got to hand it to Georgia Tech's Will Bynum for staying positive. He could easily have been the goat of the game for key turnovers and defensive lapses down the stretch against Oklahoma State, but instead he boldly used that beautiful stop-and-go drive in the lane for the game-winner. Can't say enough about the technique of Luke Schenscher. Great, great, great. When Marvin Lewis hit some 3s in the first half, Tech had a margin to work with; no 3s in the second half and they had to fight tooth and nail and win it at the buzzer.
So what's the moral of the story for this season? What lessons did we learn? Let's see: Begin with a team featuring the preseason Player of the Year and a roster so talented that a guy who flirted with going straight from high school to the NBA doesn't start; take the regular season so lightly that you blow the PRESEASON NIT and fail to win your conference regular season title; and you, too, can fall back on your talent, turn it on in the postseason, and roll to the national crown.
But that's only the ending. The meat of the story was two teams giving every last drop of effort to achieve perfection. Remember this season for St. Joseph's (and actual Player of the Year Jameer Nelson) and Stanford as much as for Connecticut. The Hawks stood up to the pressure and criticism that accompanied their undefeated regular season, were seemingly made illegitimate by their shocking 20-point loss in their conference tournament, only to have their achievement enhanced even more as that team (Xavier) made the Sweet 16 itself and the Hawks ended a jump shot away from the Final Four. For Stanford, credit the fortitude it took to maintain their streak until the final week of the regular season (including miracle finishes that snatched victory from defeat). Along with Gonzaga, though, they had finally seemed to break through the "East Coast media bias" and earned seedings in the tournament and pod placements they could hardly complain about; but in the end, they weren't able to prove their doubters wrong with neither one even making Sweet 16. The coda to the Coaching Shuffle of '04 is this: Ben Howland couldn't immediately turn water into wine at UCLA (but they were improved over last year). His former assistant, Jamie Dixon, guided Pittsburgh's returning veterans to the Big East regular season title and a repeat Sweet 16 performance. Another promoted assistant, Matt Painter, repeated Southern Illinois' achievements from last year: regular season MVC title and a Wanda At-Large bid to the NCAAs. Ex-SIU coach Bruce Weber took over at Illinois and improved last year's first-round splash performance with a Sweet 16 finish this year. Ex-Illinois coach Bill Self took a depleted squad that had made the national finals the previous year and still managed to make Sweet 16. Only Self failed at least to match the previous year's results, but no one reasonably expected such a thing. In the highest profile move of all, ex-Kansas coach Roy Williams took last year's non-qualifiers at North Carolina and made the tournament and a first-round splash. But considering the hype and the perception that he was the best coach of all the major ones who jumped and was acquiring a team that had the most talent of all of those involved in the shuffle, a Round-of-32 finish comes across as a failing grade. On the coaching front, don't forget the great job Eddie Sutton did taking a team nobody thought much of to the Big 12 regular season title and tournament crown, and one possesion shy of the national final. Most of all, don't remember Georgia Tech and the job Paul Hewitt did this season for the egg they layed in the final game; instead, remember the fantastic PRESEASON NIT performance and the resilient run to the national final with their leading scorer injured for most of the way.
This was one of the stronger seasons we've had in college basketball in a while. There were lots of good things happening on lots of campuses with many programs going strong heading into the tournament. In the end, it turned out that the team most people thought highest of at the start wound up Last Men Standing at the finish. The only thing disappointing about it is you wish they'd had the same commitment to giving it their all every single night that the guys in Philadelphia and Palo Alto showed.
Huskies Rule! and Emeka is King!
Thanks, everybody, for following HOOP, LINE AND SINKER this year. I hope you enjoyed reading it as much as I do writing it.
Until next season,
-- Ron
(c) 2003-04 Ron McBay
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