* Richmond joins from the Colonial Athletic Association[GATEWAY]. So the league
will split back into two divisions, East and West, after one year as a single 11-team division.
Temple and
St. Joseph's will vie for supremacy in the East;
Xavier still has plenty of horses returning to dominate the
West. SJU has it toughest, having its big games away first and the one home game is at TU's
home away from home (The Palestra).
Dec 31: Preconference
Temple's brutal preseason schedule may have
taken too much of a toll even for them. St. Joseph's
hasn't clicked quite the same as last year. St. Bonaventure made a splash in the preseason and
may be in the mix if they can get a jump while the others struggle.
Maryland has enough talent to stay with (and even surpass)
Duke; but they're much more apt to turn in a bad performance
and be upset, so winning the regular season title isn't in the cards.
Virginia and Wake Forest
have talent but not enough leadership at point guard to be more than spoilers.
North Carolina is too young to be in the running this year.
Duke's tough games are all at home first; Maryland has to play them all on the road first.
No real change in impressions of the relative strengths of the top teams.
Maryland's intensity level isn't consistent enough for a
regular season title, but Duke's depth is still suspect if
any of the superstars is less than super. Virginia and
Wake Forest are pretenders until proven otherwise.
It was already apparent last year, but Maryland's win over
Duke (which should set them up to win the regular season
title -- the first time in 5 years the Blue Devils will not have won it) marks a permanent shift
in the league. The Terrapins now appear to be Duke's permanent rivals for conference supremacy.
* The Trans America Athletic Conference (TAAC) has changed its name to the Atlantic Sun
Conference. In addition, Belmont (formerly independent) joins the league this season.
Georgia State is head-and-shoulders above the rest of the
pack this season.
Early season injuries put Georgia State behind the
8-ball in the standings. They're still the team to beat, but any more slip-ups and the regular
season title will be out of their hands (and in the hands of Samford).
Illinois has enough returning talent to win the conference
race. Iowa has the individual stars who can pull off a win
against anyone, but not the depth to avoid being upset themselves.
Indiana is solid enough to hang around the top of the
standings without winning it. Michigan State's young
talent may be more dangerous by year's end (i.e., when they get everybody at home and then in
the conference tournament) than early in conference play.
Iowa has displayed the best combination of talent and
team play in the preseason, but Illinois still has the best
individual player (G Frank Williams). Michigan State has
seemed to put things together well enough to be a contender at the start of conference play (but
they're still so young). Indiana's inconsistent preseason
suggests they won't be anything more than spoilers. Ohio State
may also be good for an upset.
Indiana's great start puts them in the driver's seat
(along with Ohio State) early in the conference race.
Iowa and Illinois have no
margin for error left if they want to stay in the hunt for the regular season title.
Michigan State's young squad hasn't been able to handle
the intensity of conference play.
Minnesota and Wisconsin have been good enough to be spoilers in the race for the regular
season title. At home, they've beaten all the erstwhile elite teams.
Kansas' consistency will assure they will be right there at
the top of the standings, but the individual talent and intangibles favor
Missouri this year.
Oklahoma State is good enough to sneak in if those two
slip up. Texas is too young to win the regular season title,
but by season's end they could be good enough to win the conference tournament. Having Bobby
Knight on the sidelines at Texas Tech will make for a
dramatic sideshow, but don't expect this team to be any kind of a factor this year. Missouri
has one tough road game; Kansas has three.
Oklahoma State and
Oklahoma have executed to near perfection in the preseason.
But the best personnel overall are at Kansas and the most
talented individual stars are at Missouri.
Texas will be good enough to be a disruptive force.
Texas Tech will be no more than an annoying sideshow. This
shapes up to be the strongest conference at the top of any in the country.
Boston College has momentum from last year that might be good
enough to carry it to the title. Connecticut,
Georgetown and Syracuse
are all good but none is complete enough to be the outright favorite. This year's race is up
for grabs. Syracuse gets Boston College at home and doesn't face Connecticut at all.
Syracuse has shown the best form in the preseason (as
long as Jim Boeheim was on the bench). Connecticut and
Georgetown didn't post any significant wins to back up the
hype. Meanwhile, Miami (Florida) (the one true
lodero team this year) may be well positioned to take the regular season title in the
East. Boston College's guardplay makes them a factor no
matter what style opponent they face. Lots of teams are playing well, so it won't be an easy
ride through conference play for anyone. Notre Dame,
Pittsburgh and St. John's can all be spoilers as well.
Pittsburgh's rout of
Syracuse certifies the Panthers as the best team in a very
competitive league. Connecticut is undefeated inside the
league, but while Pitt has already played the toughest teams on its schedule, UConn has barely
played any (and those two don't meet in the regular season).
Syracuse's conference record is still good, but it's smoke
and mirrors.
* Boise State left for the WAC; Cal St-Northridge comes in from the
Big Sky[GATEWAY];
UC-Riverside, formerly independent, also joins to make this a 10-team league.
UC-Irvine still has the best player in the league, G Jerry Green; that's enough to make them the
preseason favorite. Utah State is the sturdiest program in the conference, but only one starter
returns; UC-Santa Barbara has all 5 starters back and may have the edge early on.
Utah State has had the better preseason among the top 3 contenders. UC-Santa Barbara gets
their big games at home first, while UC-Irvine has to play
the tough ones on the road first.
Key games:
1 / 5: Utah St 60 @ UC-Santa Barbara 56
1 /10: []UC-Irvine 67 @ Utah St 66
1 /24: UC-Irvine 81 @ UC-Santa Barbara 70
1 /31: @ Utah St 72 UC-Santa Barbara 64
2 / 9: Utah St 62 @ UC-Irvine 61
2 /23: @ UC-Irvine 71 UC-Santa Barbara 67
3 / 7: BIG WEST TOURNAMENT 1ST ROUND/QUARTERS @ Anaheim, CA
(The top 8 teams qualify for the conference tournament.)
* TCU comes in from the WAC; East Carolina comes in from the Colonial
Athletic Association[GATEWAY].
How good can new-look Memphis be this year? Freshman
G Dajuan Wagner makes them the favorites but they still have to do it. If they don't gel,
Cincinnati is still plenty good enough to pick up the
pieces.
New-look Marquette has made a name for itself in the
preseason and should be a factor in the conference race; the same goes for
South Florida.
Cincinnati has to play Marquette twice while
Memphis doesn't face them at all.
Cincinnati has had a dominant preseason.
Memphis still has a huge upside, but their ball movement and
shot selection continue to cause them problems. Marquette
and South Florida gave notice that they can be more than
just spoilers in conference play. Louisville is still
all-hustle without the talent to back it up (but that can be good enough for an upset here and
there). Charlotte still has the residual talent to be spoilers.
* The Midwestern Collegiate Conference (MCC) has changed its name to the Horizon League. In
addition, Youngstown State joins from Mid-Continent Conference[GATEWAY].
It's gonna be Butler and Detroit ... what'd ya expect?
Senior-laden Butler has a real shot at an undefeated
regular season. Illinois-Chicago had a decent-enough preseason, but no one inside the league is
good enough to beat the Bulldogs.
Key games:
1 / 2: Wright St 90 @ Butler 87 (2OT)
1 / 3: @ IL-Chicago 62 Detroit 61
1 /10: @ Detroit 63 Butler 54
1 /12: @ Detroit 75 Wright St 74
1 /19: WI-Milwaukee 73 @ Butler 72
1 /23: @ Butler 78 Loyola-IL 48
1 /26: Butler 82 @ IL-Chicago 73
1 /28: @ IL-Chicago 68 Wright St 66
1 /30: Butler 59 @ WI-Milwaukee 58
1 /31: @ Detroit 74 IL-Chicago 67
2 / 2: Butler 72 @ Wright St 57
2 / 7: @ Butler 61 Detroit 48
2 / 9: Detroit 69 @ Wright St 64
It's taken more than a month into the regular season for
Butler to get to the top of the standings -- (and they're
still only tied for first with Wisconsin-Milwaukee at 9-3) -- but they finally made it.
If Princeton beats Penn, they win the league title
outright at 12-2. But if Penn beats Princeton on Tuesday,
there will be a three-way tie for the league title at 11-3 between Penn,
Princeton and Yale. If that happens,
Princeton and Yale will play each other in a playoff match
(probably on Thursday) for the right to play Penn (probably on Saturday) to determine the league
champion (and the automatic bid to the NCAA tournament). Both playoff games would be at neutral
sites.
Kent State in the East and Central Michigan in the West
could repeat as division champs, but a host of others (Bowling Green,
Ball State, Ohio and Marshall) are right there with them in
this perennially muddled league. If only one coach could establish a dominant program in this
highly competitive conference.
Ball State had, by far, the best preseason of any team
in the conference. Bowling Green was very strong as well.
Kent State was decent enough, while Marshall and Ohio did
nothing much to impress. Central Michigan had a terrible preseason and doesn't figure to
be a factor in the conference race.
First time through the conference schedule,
Kent State has solidly taken control of the regular
season race.
1 /29: @ Marshall 98 Ball St 95 (2OT)
2 / 4: @ Kent St 76 Bowling Green 64
2 / 9: @ Ohio U 85 Ball St 71
2 /19: @ Kent St 116 Marhsall 76
2 /23: Kent St 70 @ Ohio U 67
3 / 4: MAC TOURNAMENT 1ST ROUND/16S on-campus
(Each division winner plus the next best team overall receives a bye into the
quarterfinals.)
* The season-ending wrist injury to Player of the Year Tarise Bryson dooms the chances of
Illinois State. Meanwhile,
Southern Illinois has put together a strong preseason that
makes them the team to beat.
Southern Illinois is the only school that even had so
much as a decent preseason. It should indicate that they'll dominate league play, but we'll
see. In particular, Indiana State has been terrible.
1 /10: @ Wichita St 88 So Illinois 79
1 /22: Creighton 67 @ Wichita St 55
2 / 3: So Illinois 79 @ Creighton 77
2 / 6: @ So Illinois 78 Wichita St 58
2 /17: @ Creighton 69 Wichita St 67
2 /20: @ So Illinois 65 Creighton 62
3 / 1: MVC TOURNAMENT 1ST ROUND/16S @ St. Louis, MO
(The top 6 teams receive a bye into the quarterfinals.)
Wyoming has all 5 starters back;
Utah has all 5 starters back plus the return of
coach Rick Majerus to the sidelines after sitting out last year for his health. That gives the
Utes the edge. New Mexico should also contend.
BYU had a strong preseason; Utah and
Wyoming were also solid -- in fact, several
conference teams got off to good starts. This will be a competitive season with no one team
head-and-shoulders above the rest. San Diego State and New Mexico will have a say in the
outcome.
Each of the top teams in the league stumbled in the preseason. There's no clear favorite
based on form, so it goes back to execution game by game. That favors the team with the best
guardplay: Arizona. The most talent still resides on the
UCLA roster, but the Steve Lavin-era Bruins don't have the
consistency of performance that leads to a regular season title.
Stanford's roster is deep but that also means that no
single combination has completely clicked. USC and
Oregon may wind up being nothing more than spoilers.
With two wins each against the elite trackable teams in the conference, both Arizona State
and California have proven that their scores (at least for home games) are worth taking note of
as further litmus tests to help distinguish the talented clutter at the top of the league
standings.
Florida and Kentucky are a
cut above with Alabama,
Tennessee and
Mississippi capable of making some noise. Schedule-wise,
Alabama has the best of it, Florida the worst.
This league has more good teams than any other ... so just being "good" isn't going to get
you very far inside the conference. Florida and
Kentucky were great in the preseason, and
Alabama was almost that good as well. Below them,
Mississippi State,
Mississippi, Georgia and
Arkansas all had good enough preseasons to be factors.
Tennessee is going nowhere.
(The lights-out-shooting loss at Mississippi State
notwithstanding), it's Alabama that has put together the
most solid regular season (in a year in which it's very tough to separate from such a deep pack
of lingerer teams).
College of Charleston is still the sturdiest program in the
league; but this year UNC-Greensboro, Davidson and just maybe
Georgia Southern could break through. UNC-Greensboro has
the easiest schedule.
Suspension brought Fresno State back to the pack, but
at full strength, they're still a solid favorite. Hawaii had
a fine preseason, and Louisiana Tech and Tulsa were also solid. UTEP was a bust.