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Volume V, Special Issue - 00 Nov 13: Knight Blindness
Five Against The Hordes
Arizona had the best team in the country last year through the December preseason. 7' Center Loren Woods, power forward Michael Wright, 'tweener Richard Jefferson, point guard Jason Gardner and slashing guard Gilbert Arenas were a perfectly matched unit. But there was essentially no depth behind them. That led to foul trouble in big games and injuries that threw off their chemistry. Jefferson was hurt at the start of conference play and Woods was hurt at the end of it just before the NCAAs. Everybody's back this year with a little more depth shoring up the bench. The overriding question for this season is this:
There are 4 "killer/attrition" teams with enough of a returning nucleus to have their act together right from the start of the season: Maryland (which has everybody back led by 'tweener Terence Morris), Kansas (also with everybody back with a rotating star system), Illinois (all starters return and new coach Bill Self should make them tighter than they were last year) and Florida (which lost its star 'tweener Mike Miller but still has plenty of talent left over). Michigan State may eventually be better than all of them but they need to work in a new array of players in the leading roles. The trend in college basketball favors the Marauding Horde teams nowadays.
Returning star power is kind of light this year. Duke's 'tweener Shane Battier is being billed by most as the Preseason Player of the Year, but it says here the Blue Devils will realize just how much they miss Chris Carrawell's true leadership soon enough. Troy Murphy at Notre Dame gets lots of press because of his numbers and the decent performance of his team. This season he may actually get to prove it's all real in some legitimate big games now that Ryan Humphrey (ex-Oklahoma) is along to be his second. The other huge individual star players may well be freshmen: Eddie Griffin at Seton Hall; Zach Randolph and Marcus Taylor at Michigan State (not to mention super-soph Jason Richardson) and Gerald Wallace at Alabama.
Lots of turnover in the coaching ranks from last season. The biggest news is the ousting of Bob Knight at Indiana. Former assistant Mike Davis now presides over what's left of the program in Bloomington. Bill Guthridge resigned at North Carolina, but thanks to the manipulative timing that put him in the job 3 years ago, too much time had passed for UNC to get the successor of their dreams, Roy Williams, to leave Kansas where he's now dug in. That left the Tar Heels with Matt Doherty as the new head coach (he of the total one year's worth of head-coaching experience). Nothing is expected of Davis at IU, but Doherty will be under heavy scrutiny to maintain the high standard of the UNC program he's inherited. Three programs with plenty of talent have changed coaches in mid-stream: Bill Self (ex-Tulsa) is now in charge at powerhouse Illinois; Notre Dame replaced Doherty with Mike Brey (ex-Delaware); and Buzz Peterson (ex-Appalachian State) picks up the pieces Self left behind at Tulsa. John Calipari is back in college basketball (where he belongs) and will try to perform an accelerated miracle in one year. Bobby Cremins is (finally) gone from Georgia Tech, but don't expect much from Paul Hewitt (ex-Siena) in the overloaded ACC any time soon. The Golden Era of Princeton Hoops may well be over with the mass defections of its head coach (Bill Carmody to Northwestern), its star center (Chris Young signed a baseball contract with the Pittsburgh Pirates) and would-be star guard (Spencer Gloger decided to transfer to UCLA after all); former assistant John Thompson III is left to start over from scratch.
The ACC (34 of 45 starters return) and the Pac-10 (36 of 50) are the strongest conferences this season. Their champs and mid-level teams won't have gaudy won-loss records, but don't be fooled. They'll be battle-tested and plenty ready for NCAA tournament play. Both the Mountain West and WAC have been granted automatic bids to the NCAA tournament this season, but it came at the expense of the lesser conferences. Rather than reduce the number of at-large bids, the NCAA will now require the #64- and #65-seeded teams to meet in a "play-in" game on the Tuesday before the real NCAA tournament starts up on the regular Thursday of first-round play. (Frankly, that sucks.) The Big East added Virginia Tech and will now play a two-division, 7-team format. Losing the Hokies means the Atlantic 10 will have a single-division, 11-team format. Elsewhere, the Big West lost two teams (New Mexico State and North Texas) to the Sun Belt and one (Nevada) to the WAC with the Sun Belt also adding one more (Middle Tennessee State) from the OVC.
Mark down November 20-22, (the Monday-Wednesday before Thanksgiving). That's when the MAUI INVITATIONAL takes place. With the likes of Arizona, Maryland, Illinois and Connecticut in the field -- arguably the 4 best teams from 4 top conferences -- it's likely to be the best showcase we'll see in one shot before the NCAAs in March.
The rest of the preseason tournaments don't look to feature many heavyweight match-ups, but check these out, anyway:
The road to Minneapolis starts now.
Point Of Hope
Joseph Forte (38p,10r,6a) was outstanding in the final of the NABC CLASSIC in the rematch win for North Carolina over Tulsa, but one guy doing it all isn't necessarily a good thing. Replacing point guard Ed Cota will be a long-term problem for the Tar Heels (who barely beat Winthrop at home in the opener). Matt Doherty's animation on the bench is only good for a short-term emotional boost.
The PRESEASON NIT gets underway this week. The only news at the top would be if Duke doesn't win it. Hoosier-haters will love seeing Pepperdine win at decimated Indiana on Tuesday. Worth a peek will be the likely quarterfinal match-ups Texas-Cal on Wednesday and Pepperdine-South Alabama on Friday.
Utah State should go from insider sleeper to media darling after they win the TOP OF THE WORLD CLASSIC starting Thursday. It's a solid ballclub that knows how to win, but don't get too excited just yet. (Wait until they beat Utah in two weeks.)
The other 4-team invitational tournaments this week are just preseason showcases. Don't expect any upsets and don't be impressed by any home wins by Wake Forest (BCA CLASSIC), Arkansas (JOHN THOMPSON CLASSIC), NC State (CoSIDA CLASSIC), Oklahoma (SOONER INVITATIONAL) or Fresno State (HISPANIC SCHOLARSHIP TOURNAMENT). Anything short of blow-out victories will be suspect.
Austin Peay, with its star 'tweener Trenton Hassell, never led in regulation but beat Utah State in overtime in the final of the TOP OF THE WORLD CLASSIC. Too bad that one didn't get a national broadcast. APSU ("Let's go Peay!") will likely have to win at Tennessee next Monday in order to get much national attention from here out, but don't forget about them when they disappear from the radar once conference play (in the OVC) starts.
Indiana beat back a cold-shooting Pepperdine and then hustled past a decent South Alabama team to make it to Madison Square Garden in the PRESEASON NIT. Enough players stayed around for new head coach Mike Davis to have something to work with after all. They'll likely beat Temple in the semis on Wednesday only to be sacrificed to Duke in Friday's final. The floor at Cameron Indoor Stadium was renamed "Coach K Court" to honor Mike Krzyzewski's 500th win at Duke (over Villanova).
Senior guard Charlie Bell turned in the first triple-double (13p,11r,10a) for Michigan State since Magic Johnson in their rout of Oakland. (Surprisingly, Mateen Cleaves never had one.) Elsewhere, freshman guard Omar Cook broke Mark Jackson's record with 17 assists against Stony Brook. (He's 3 games into his college career, mind you. That's the kind of thing Kenny Anderson did when he exploded from Day One at Georgia Tech.)
The Thanksgiving tournaments are traditionally better than the Christmas tournaments, and the best one of all, the MAUI INVITATIONAL, starts today (and runs through Wednesday). Look for Arizona to get past Connecticut in the semis and beat the winner of Maryland-Illinois in the final. UConn is the only one of those four who doesn't return all five starters from last year, so this should be high quality play from some of the top teams.
Stanford shouldn't be bothered by Utah on the way to winning the PUERTO RICO THANKSGIVING SHOOTOUT (Friday-Sunday). Missouri has started strong and shouldn't have trouble with DePaul in the GREAT ALASKA SHOOTOUT (Wednesday-Saturday). No one should challenge Oklahoma in the BIG ISLAND INVITATIONAL (Friday-Sunday). Georgetown's height may be too much for the College of Charleston to deal with in the HAWAII PACIFIC CLASSIC (Friday-Sunday). The winner of the MOUNTAIN ENERGY TOURNAMENT (Friday-Sunday) among Auburn, Creighton and Toledo might earn a ranking next week. The SPARTAN INVITATIONAL is just a two-round showcase for Michigan State.
This year's point of emphasis against hand-checking might as well be called "The Wisconsin Rule". See if tighter foul calls allow Tennessee to run past the Badgers at home on Tuesday. Cincinnati's Kenny Satterfield might be exactly the right player to exploit Notre Dame's lack of quickness; the Bearcats play the Fighting Irish in Indianapolis on Saturday.
Uncertified Returns
The MAUI INVITATIONAL was as good as advertized -- better, in fact, with the unexpected showing by Dayton. The Flyers were tough inside (F Yuanta Holland) and outside (G Tony Stanley) in surprising depleted Connecticut right off the bat and then knocking off shell-shocked Maryland as a follow-up. Illinois and Maryland played a great double-attrition game in the semifinals. The Illini's talent is more evenly distributed whereas the Terrapins relied so much on a few stars ('T Terence Morris, who faded again, C Lonny Baxter and G Juan Dixon). UI won by decision. In the final, Arizona was able to hold its own in the paint (behind F Michael Wright and sub F Gene Edgerson). When G Gilbert Arenas sat with 2 quick fouls, G Jason Gardner stepped up his scoring (18p in the first half). When Arenas came back in the second half, the Wildcats were able to open up a 10-point lead. Illinois almost stole the game at the end with a late flurry of 3s. Arizona looked fabulous (and all this was without 7' C Loren Woods, who was suspended by the NCAA for the first 6 games). But poor scheduling had Arizona playing on Saturday at Purdue after returning from Hawaii and they lost 69-@72. (Otherwise, the top spot would have been theirs, no question.)
In the PRESEASON NIT, Duke was its usual dominant self until it met Temple's matchup zone in the final. The Owls led 60-54 with 3 minutes left before G Jason Williams took the game over and won it for the Blue Devils. And there's the problem: with his team down at crunch time, where was 'T Shane Battier? -- parked in the corner waiting for a pass for a 3-point shot. Duke is still way too in love with 3-pointers, and worse, it was left to the sophomores (Williams and C Carlos Boozer) to do the dirty work in the lane and come through. (They did, mind you.) Duke gave Temple way too much leeway in the paint, and only 6 players get key minutes. (We'll get to see, upon "The Recount" this week, whether these weaknesses are on-going. Arizona held its own in the paint against Illinois, but Maryland didn't. Can Duke? Also, the Blue Devils lost by attrition to Florida in last year's NCAA tournament precisely because of their short bench. The Illini may well be able to repeat that plan.) Because Duke won its post-tourney game (against Army on Sunday), they sneak into the top spot this week.
Elsewhere, the Big East claimed two preseason tournaments: rebuilt Syracuse was quite impressive running through both Missouri and DePaul. The Orangeman backcourt of Preston Shumpert and Allen Griffin had its way in the GREAT ALASKA SHOOTOUT. In the lower-profile HAWAII PACIFIC TOURNAMENT, Georgetown finished strong to win it (beating College of Charleston along the way). Notre Dame whacked Cincinnati. (The addition of F Ryan Humphrey makes C Troy Murphy even more effective because you can't focus all of your attention on him defensively anymore.)
The SEC is not having a strong start. Tennessee did beat Wisconsin at home. Georgia played well beating Utah on the way to losing the finals of the PUERTO RICO THANKSGIVING SHOOTOUT to Stanford, but that only leaves the Bulldogs at 2-3. Kentucky (now 1-3) lost at home to Penn State. Auburn couldn't even get past Toledo in the MOUNTAIN ENERGY TOURNAMENT in Kansas City. Maybe Alabama (with highly touted freshman F Gerald Wallace) will emerge to challenge the Volunteers in conference.
Oklahoma won the BIG ISLAND INVITATIONAL and seems to be playing pretty tight basketball.
Last year, there were practically no "David over Goliath" upsets where solid teams from smaller conferences were able beat the name teams from the major conferences. This year, we've already seen Georgia State win at Georgia, and now Cal St-Fullerton has won at UCLA. Don't be too surprised if Austin Peay (with NBA-bound 'T Trenton Hassell) can pull off another one tonight at Tenneseee; and South Alabama has a shot at Auburn on Friday.
The ACC-BIG 10 CHALLENGE (Tuesday and Wednesday) is the big event this week. The ACC is stronger at the top (and should be able to edge out a 5-4 win). Only Michigan State figures to have it easy over North Carolina. Don't miss Illinois at Duke on Tuesday; both of those teams could well make it through to the Final Four in March.
Restitution In (Back)Court
Michigan State has the option/dilemma of turning over the point to its freshman, Marcus Taylor, freeing up Charlie Bell to move back to scoring guard. The Spartans looked good enough dismantling North Carolina in their ACC-BIG 10 CHALLENGE win at home; trouble is, they get less credit after Kentucky made Carolina look even worse in Chapel Hill later in the week. MSU gets another chance to make a statement for the 2000-01 season when it hosts Florida on Wednesday (but if G Teddy Dupay is still suspended for that game, it won't count as much). UNC misses Ed Cota way more than Bill Guthridge right now. Their freshmen guards aren't ready to take the reins (and Ronald Curry hasn't arrived from football season yet as their last-chance savior).
Mediocre guard play hasn't caught up to Stanford yet (but it will). Tennessee's swagger ground to a halt on the road at West Virginia while G Tony Harris sat with foul trouble, but he returned just in time to pull out a 1-point win in the end. Notre Dame survived its own squeaker at Vanderbilt (no thanks to its lack of quickness in the backcourt; the one-two punch of C Troy Murphy and F Ryan Humphrey looks better every game, though).
Oh, for a season ticket at Tennessee this season. The Vols had no trouble dispatching Big Fish Trenton Hassell and Little Pond Austin Peay last week. This week they get yet another flashy star coming to town when 'T Jeryl Sasser and SMU visit on Thursday. (And wait until Alabama comes to town in January with its pair of 'tweeners Rod Grizzard and super freshman Gerald Wallace. The Tide play like a high school team with all kinds of swagger and bravado. Grizzard's styling and profiling after the play is usually better than the play itself. Wallace lets his spectacular athletic gifts speak for themselves. You just hope a guy this good stays around long enough to develop a champion's mentality so he can have a long pro career. This one can be special.)
Seton Hall has its own star freshman, the lanky 6-9 Eddie Griffin. The team as a whole is a bit more hyped up than is really the case just yet, though. They get a chance to make a real impression on Saturday at Illinois.
Dick Bennett retired as head coach of Wisconsin on Thursday (after beating Maryland at home in its ACC-BIG 10 CHALLENGE game). His five-year plan to bring the Badger program to national prominence culminated in last year's trip to the Final Four and he knew when to go out on a good note. It remains to be seen whether the Big-D/Little-O gimmick style will continue to work in his aftermath (especially with this year's officiating emphasis on cutting out hand-checking).
Southern Mississippi couldn't quite pull off a second "Unwelcome Guest" tournament win in the CYCLONE CHALLENGE, but the two-point loss at Iowa State winds up vaulting both teams into this week's Top 25. (Marcus Fizer is gone at ISU, but G Jamaal Tinsley is still one of the best penetrators in the country.)
It's probably one week premature, but Georgia State sneaks in as the #25 team for this week. It's his fourth season there now, so Lefty Driesell finally has a team of entirely his own players and it shows. They host their top Trans America Conference rival, Samford, on Monday and then visit Creighton from the MVC on Saturday and they've already beaten Bradley from that conference (not to mention winning at Georgia in the season-opener).
Utah State won't get much of a bump for winning against Utah this week now that others have already beat them to it. Don't forget: Arizona finally gets to go on full display Saturday when 7' C Loren Woods plays his first game of the season at Connecticut.
The Kids Are Alright
Wake Forest turned in another home December thrashing of a highly regarded opponent. This time it was Kansas (who, while playing without their best athlete, F Kenny Gregory, turned in another one of their own emotionally flat self-immolations). 'Tweeners Josh Howard (21p,7r) and Craig Dawson (20p) thrived in the open court runaway. The problem for the Demon Deacons is that they've looked this good in December before only to come apart during conference play. The ACC is pretty loaded at the top this year, so the challenge for them will be to come up with a few tough wins and survive the trauma of some tough losses. They've failed that test in the past. Even in his best seasons when he won the conference tournament, Coach Dave Odom hasn't had much success when his team made it into the NCAA. For now, though, they look great.
C Loren Woods was plenty rusty (9p,2r) in his season debut for Arizona at Connecticut on Saturday. Forget the fact that the Huskies were handed the victory by a bad goaltending call against Woods with a second to play. He spent the game whining to the refs about minor contact. Worse, the Wildcats, who were doing well maintaining a small margin on the road, mismanaged the endgame and blew the victory. Keep in mind that they played this game without Coach Lute Olson.
Seton Hall gave Illinois all it wanted, building a 21-point lead in the first half on the road behind great guard play from the likes of Darius Lane (31p,7r), Ty Shine and Andre Barrett. Freshman F Eddie Griffin (20p,11r) scored most of his points in the second half trying to help stave off the Illini's comeback. It was the inside strength of F Marcus Griffin (24p,13r), the bench and hustle spurred on by the home crowd that brought UI all the way back. Illinois' G Cory Bradford struggled with his shooting all during regulation with the weight of trying to tie the NCAA record for consecutive games with at least one 3-pointer (73). He didn't get his until overtime.
Tennessee, with its stable of 'tweeners, had all kinds of trouble guarding another 'tweener team when SMU came to visit. The Vols weren't any quicker than their opponents and the Mustangs could handle the ball individually as well as their hosts. It turned out to be F Ron Slay whose inside banging and maniacal enthusiasm that ultimately won the day in front of the home folk.
It's a slow week coming up while most schools are having exams. The big Christmas tournaments follow in the next two weeks after that before conference play starts up in January. DePaul is looking better and may be able to beat struggling Kansas at home (whereas they couldn't handle Missouri on the road last week). Much of the lustre has come off of the annual CROSSTOWN SHOOTOUT between Cincinnati and Xavier (but that doesn't mean the Musketeers won't win their third straight over the Bearcats). Wisconsin and Temple meet this week in the annual "Ugliest Game of the Year" on Thursday. Missouri still needs to prove itself on the road and the trip to Iowa on Saturday will be a strong test. Arizona plays Illinois again on Saturday. (One of these days G Frank Williams will learn how to involve the rest of his teammates, won't he?)
The rematch between Illinois and Arizona was one ugly mudder of a game. The first time around, in the final of the MAUI INVITATIONAL, the Illini were dominant inside but were undone by turnovers (most notably by lead guard Frank Williams). In the second game, their inside strength and depth off the bench were once again in evidence but they took care of the ball much better. Williams played with an injured shoulder, which may have worked in their favor by forcing him not to look for his own offense as much and, consequently, involve his teammates more. In the first game, he scored a career-high and they lost; in the second game, all five starters scored in double-figures and they won. The Wildcats were off their feed in front of the crowd at the United Center: the backcourt of Jason Gardner and Gilbert Arenas shot 6-for-23; C Loren Woods (in his second game back) and 'T Richard Jefferson were both bothered by the rough play. Only F Michael Wright -- a first-rate lodero in his own right -- was up to par. In particular, Illinois reserve Lucas Johnson got under the skin of the Arizona team: Coach Lute Olson came onto the court at one point, yelling "That guy's crazy." It's the shaved head. My friend Sean (who gets into more than his share of altercations) says that people are subconsciously irritated by his own shaved head and things just automatically become contentious for no other reason. (Lucas is a physical "bouncer"-type player, but so is Arizona's Gene Edgerson, who doesn't generate the same kind of reaction.)
Kentucky was one broken play away from defeating defending champion Michigan State on its own home floor. The Spartans had been able to race past North Carolina (a similar team with a big frontline and a weak backcourt) and went through Florida (with only one low-post player and a more wide-open style, otherwise). But these Wildcats got a capable performance from freshman guard Gerald Fitch and were able to slow things down enough for 'T Tayshaun Prince to be effective with his set/jumpshot from the outside. MSU escaped with the win only after G Charlie Bell found C Andre Hutson in the lane for a layup and then made a clutch defensive stop on G Keith Bogans in the closing seconds.
Wisconsin survived the dual-lodero duel with Temple on the road. Seton Hall, which had played quite well on the road against Illinois the previous week, nearly lost at home to 0-6 Penn. That was more about the inconsistency of such a young team than style of play, though; plus, the Pirates are giving up 78 points a game defensively, by far the worst of any team in the Top 25.
Iowa and Missouri played a very clean game that went into double-overtime before the Hawkeyes came away with the victory at home. Iowa's three-headed attack of scoring guard Dean Oliver, 'tweener Luke Recker and power forward Reggie Evans is fun to watch. There's not enough rebounding on that team for them to be able to dominate play, though, so expect many of their games to be endplays such as this one. The Tigers looked fine on the road (and they'll need to continue to do so with a tough week coming up).
Last week was a slow one with only a few big games. This week there's plenty of action with big Christmas tournaments and some nice one-off specialty events as well. Undefeated Tennessee has a big week in store: they play undefeated Virginia in the JIMMY V CLASSIC on Tuesday and then have to play at undefeated Syracuse on Friday. Something's got to give. Missouri plays at Indiana on Monday and then has the double-home game BRAGGIN' RIGHTS border war with Illinois on Thursday. Indiana hosts Missouri on Monday and then renews its own neighboring state rivalry with Kentucky on Friday. Toledo gets to be Fresno State's second unwelcome guest at the TREND HOMES CLASSIC on Monday-Tuesday -- St. Bonaventure won the HISPANIC SCHOLARSHIP TOURNAMENT in Fresno earlier -- before playing unwelcome host to Xavier on Saturday.
Three of the best freshmen will be on display in the other JIMMY V CLASSIC matchup on Tuesday as Seton Hall's F Eddie Griffin meets Michigan State's C Zach Randolph and G Marcus Taylor (among others). Stanford's lodero frontcourt may not be enough to counteract Duke's overwhelming superiority in the backcourt in their meeting in the PETE NEWELL CHALLENGE on Thursday. Check out star frosh F Gerald Wallace as Alabama looks to get past Cincinnati in the PUERTO RICO CHRISTMAS SHOOTOUT on Wednesday-Friday. Across town, SMU should have little opposition in the SAN JUAN SHOOTOUT, also Wednesday-Friday. The PEARL HARBOR CLASSIC, Thursday-Saturday, should be excellent with the likes of USC, Iowa State and Mississippi in the field. And there are other interesting games going on below the Top 25 as well this week.
Wahoo Serious
Tennessee bounced back from that loss very well. They went into Syracuse and handed the Orangemen their own first loss of the season. This time Slay and 'T Isiah Victor abused SU's traditional frontcourt players while 'Cuse G Preston Shumpert struggled to hit from the outside.
Duke was having such an easy time scoring against Stanford in the PETE NEWELL CHALLENGE that it went to their heads and they couldn't restrain themselves. The weakness of the Blue Devils is their lack of size and depth along the baseline. While G Jason Williams got off yet again and Shane Battier and Mike Dunleavy were doing their 'tweener thing, C Carlos Boozer couldn't score and was saddled with foul trouble battling the Cardinal's Collins' twin towers in the paint. All Duke had to do was slow it down a little bit and milk the clock, but they kept pushing the pace because Stanford wasn't able to stop them defensively. Trouble is, more possessions meant more opportunities to foul and both Boozer and Battier fouled out before 'T Casey Jacobsen hit the game-winner for Stanford with 3.6 seconds left. It's the same formula that knocked Duke out of the NCAAs last year against Florida. Being #1 doesn't mean you don't have weaknesses.
In the other JIMMY V CLASSIC matchup, Michigan State made Seton Hall look like the pretenders they are, in front of the home folks, no less. Missouri continues to be one of the most watchable teams in the country. They're talented enough to compete with anybody, but not quite dominant enough to put teams away; so every game is hard-fought and well played. Earlier in the season, they lost in double-OT at Iowa. This week they won at Indiana behind the heroics of G Wesley Stokes (he of the "curly fries" hairdo). In the BRAGGIN' RIGHTS double-home game against Illinois -- by the way, why aren't there more of these rivalry games on neutral floors with each school getting half the tickets? It's a great atmosphere that produces dramatic games -- they nearly won in spite of their star player, G Kareem Rush; but it was the Illini's G Frank Williams who took over at the end of regulation and the start of overtime to secure the win for UI over UM. That game took so much out of Illinois that they had no energy/emotion to give two days later and lost at Texas.
Iowa State, with its own guard/'tweener attack, came back to win against Mississippi in the final of the PEARL HARBOR CLASSIC. Cincinnati needed overtime to beat Alabama in the final of the PUERTO RICO CHRISTMAS SHOOTOUT. Nebraska won all three of its games en route to the SAN JUAN SHOOTOUT title (including the final over SMU) by a total of 4 points. Georgia State "won" the round-robin HAWAII HOLIDAY CLASSIC.
One more week to go before conference play starts up in January. (Some conferences have already started, though.) We've got one more major tournament and several invitational showcases. Tennessee will face a challenge from the guard/'tweener attack of Iowa State in the RAINBOW CLASSIC. If SMU couldn't beat Nebraska on a neutral court, don't expect them to come through with an unwelcome guest triumph against Oklahoma at the ALL-COLLEGE TOURNAMENT.
Confirmation
Coach Lute Olson has taken an indefinite leave of absence from Arizona in order to spend time with his ailing wife. The Wildcats are still adjusting to the return of 7' C Loren Woods -- one problem it's caused is that F Michael Wright's production has gone down as Woods' numbers have gone up. They haven't quite worked out how to share the paint. (The team needs to make its final adjustments in a hurry, though: an early showdown at home against Stanford comes on Saturday.) Rick Majerus has had more health problems and won't return to coaching Utah on schedule this week. UNLV already lost head coach Bill Bayno weeks ago due to an NCAA violation scandal.
The preseason is a background check. Conference play is the confirmation of credentials. It's also a clean slate for those teams that failed on the first pass. North Carolina has stabilized the slide now that G Ron Curry and F Julius Peppers have reported from the football team. Maryland, Arkansas and Alabama didn't come through against name opponents, but they continued to overwhelm anyone lesser. They get a second chance to make their marks now.
The ACC emerged preseason play as, by far, the strongest conference. Things get started off inside the league with a fabulous match-up right away when Virginia visits Wake Forest. (When was the last time two Top-5, undefeated teams met in this league and neither one of them was Duke or North Carolina?) Both squads have impressive wins over teams favored to win one of the other major conferences: The Cavaliers blew out Tennessee on a neutral court while the Demon Deacons routed Kansas at home.) UVa has better defensive pressure and more players who can hurt you off the dribble. Wake has superior size on the baseline and the home crowd in this first meeting. (Look for the Wahoos to exploit the Deacon guards and come away with the victory.) That's not to say that Virginia will take the regular season. Duke is still Duke, but the Blue Devils have shown their vulnerability to loss-by-attrition remains.
The Big 10 sports two Final Four-calibre teams in Michigan State and Illinois, but they only play once -- February 6 in Champaign-Urbana. Wisconsin should be able to do their lodero act en route to a third-place finish. Iowa may not be tough enough to place any higher than fourth. Indiana gets to play in front of that rabid home crowd; otherwise, they wouldn't even be worth mentioning.
The SEC sports two teams capable of contending for the Final Four, Tennessee and Florida. It also features a lodero team, Kentucky, that could bog down those squads just enough for a spoiler win. There's very good depth underneath with the likes of Mississippi, Arkansas, Alabama and others capable of winning against the elite squads (at home, anyway).
The Pac-10 figured to be quite strong at the start of the season but the preseason wasn't kind to it. Stanford came through intact as a Final Four-contender, but talented Arizona hasn't been as dominant as expected and now faces life without its head coach for the foreseeable future. USC hasn't been able to dominate opponents; and UCLA has been an out-and-out flop. Without a conference tournament to provide incentive for one final reprieve, there's also the potential for teams to check out once they fall out of contention for the regular season crown.
The top Big 12 teams are solidly Sweet 16-calibre and they are well coached enough to be able to move further with favorable draws. Kansas only seems like the favorite. Missouri has played heroically against a tough schedule. Oklahoma, Iowa State and Texas are all capable of beating any other league team, home or away. Outside of the ACC, the best played conference games may be right here.
The Big East has several Sweet 16-calibre teams, but none is quite in the Final Four class. Connecticut continues to get stronger and is the only squad with the potential to dominate the league. Syracuse overachieved early and may come back to the pack in league play. Seton Hall and Notre Dame have talented star players but, for both teams, the whole is less than the sum of the parts. Georgetown just keeps winning and may be able to plow through the more favored schools to do well inside the conference.
Conference USA will be well balanced, but the preseason revealed no teams that should reasonably expect to go beyond the Sweet 16. Cincinnati has one good player this year instead of several. DePaul hasn't seemed to be able to step into the void. (That Fox Sports documentary on last year's squad, The Demons Within, that aired last week was less interesting than their previous ones on Fresno State and the Tennessee women's team. The best part was the locker room scene after Kenyon Martin's magnificent performance to bring Cincinnati back to victory from a huge deficit in the late-going: all they showed as DePaul coach Pat Kennedy berating the Blue Demons for blowing their big lead. Baby, sometimes greatness triumphs and it's as simple as that.) South Florida was the form horse before the season began and they seem to be getting things in sync lately. Southern Mississippi is a lodero team that can only win if they bring you down to their level.
Leagues like the Mountain West (BYU, UNLV, Utah), the Atlantic 10 (Xavier, Dayton, St. Bonaventure, Temple) and the WAC (SMU, Fresno State) would do well to place even a single team in the Sweet 16.
The top MVC teams (Creighton, Indiana State and Illinois State) seem solid enough to hold off any lesser opponents, but not quite good enough to upset their way into the Sweet 16. The MAC continues to be a conference with decent teams (Toledo, Marshall) which never quite make a huge impression outside of the league.
Some conferences only have one team even capable of making a splash outside the league, but the competition inside is so weak that they may lose their potency by the time the postseason comes around. Don't expect too much from the league-favorites (and expect nothing if another team upsets them as conference champs) in the Trans America (Georgia State), the WCC (Pepperdine, Gonzaga), the Big West (Utah State), the Southern Conference (College of Charleston), the MCC (Butler, Detroit), the OVC (Austin Peay), the Sun Belt (Louisiana-Lafayette, South Alabama), and the Big Sky (Cal St-Northridge). The Ivy League is so bad that (0-8) Penn is still the favorite!
Fewer big games each week now that conference play is here, but each one matters more. Two showdowns loom with national repercussions: Virginia@Wake Forest and Stanford@Arizona. Wake has a big week with a road trip to North Carolina as well. Indiana has two tough games (vs Michigan State and at Wisconsin), as does Penn State (at Michigan State and vs Iowa). Either Seton Hall or Georgetown will get its first Top-25 win when they meet.
Not So Fast
Teams whose self-confidence is high generally won't concede anything to their opponents. They tell themselves "Let's just play our game" because it has been good enough so far. Virginia wanted to run just as much as Wake Forest and they kept it up all game long. The Cavaliers didn't have any size on the baseline to deal with the Demon Deacons' F Darius Songaila (27p) and they lost the attrition game up front in the 96-73 blowout. Arizona is in a free fall. Coach Lute Olson's wife passed away on Monday and his return to the team is indefinite. Stanford only had 5 players score, but the Collins twin centers had their way in the paint. The Cardinal took complete control of the Pac-10 race by beating the Wildcats in Tucson. Stanford has now beaten both teams which were the consensus #1 and #2 before the season started. (They already beat Duke.)
Michigan State and Florida lost on buzzer-beater 3-pointers within seconds of one another. (Thank goodness for remote control!) Indiana's Kirk Haston handed the Spartans their first defeat, while South Carolina reserve Travis Kraft toppled the Gators. Resurgent North Carolina handed Wake Forest a 1-point loss to hand the Demon Deacons their first loss of the season. The Tar Heels displayed an ability to run earlier in the week with a 52-26 second half against Georgia Tech; but it was the point blank havoc of C Brendan Haywood (24p) that felled Wake Forest.
The Year After Rule seems to be in effect over at Iowa State. They outscored Oklahoma 59-31 in the second half on Saturday. Without Marcus Fizer roaming the paint, the Cyclones now have a guard-oriented attack led by Jamaal Tinsley and Kantrail Horton. Georgetown (now 13-0) got its first "name" win by beating Seton Hall (assuming they count). The other Big East team that's still undefeated is -- believe it or not -- Boston College (11-0). They made it legit, too, with an 85-68 rout of Connecticut early in the week.
Maryland finally has a chance to get back into the national conversation when they host North Carolina on Wednesday. The Terrapins have been dutifully routing no-name opponents since their disappointing opening of the season. Notre Dame's season had promised to be more than just a sideshow showcase for C Troy Murphy. Two road wins this week against struggling teams (Seton Hall and Kentucky) would go along way to establish some credibility for the team as a whole. Creighton can get back in control of the MVC race with wins over Illinois State and Indiana State this week.
The only Top-10 matchup on tap this week is Virginia at Duke on Saturday. The Cavaliers can certainly run with the Blue Devils. Their only hope for winning, though, is to get Duke's frontline in foul trouble with quickness (like they were able to do to Tennessee earlier). Freshman F Gerald Wallace isn't getting as much playing time lately for Alabama, but that's no reason to miss their game Tuesday night against Tennessee. The Volunteers have shown a lot of fight pulling out victories even when they aren't firing on all cylinders. Iowa State at Missouri on Saturday will probably be the best played game of the week (but few of us will get to see it televised).
Unbalanced
The point is: conference standings aren't always the reflection of relative strength that you expect them to be. In many cases, it's more of a reflection of fortuitous scheduling. 5 out of 7 of Florida's elite games are at home; 5 out of 7 of Kentucky's are away. Syracuse and Notre Dame have 8 games against elite opponents; Boston College has 4. Undefeated Georgetown won't meet up with Connecticut or Boston College at all in the regular season. So when you see one team with a gaudy won-loss record and another conferencemate with a bloody one, keep in mind that they're apples and oranges.
Rather than pay equal attention to every score, the trick is to pick out the blowout games that should have been close on paper (e.g., @ Duke 103 Virginia 61; @ Iowa 78 Illinois 62) and the road upsets that shouldn't have happened at all (North Carolina 86 @ Maryland 83; Georgia Tech 73 @ Virginia 68; Kansas 69 @ Oklahoma 61). Those are the scores that let you know something key has taken place. Conference play hasn't been good to Virginia. League teams haven't been surprised or intimidated by their non-stop pressure. Instead, it's been the Cavaliers who have suffered from poor shot selection that lost control of games and have them off to a 1-3 start. North Carolina continues to surge. G Ron Curry isn't exactly dominating the play himself, but the stability he has brought to the point since football season ended has allowed the other stars (G Joseph Forte and C Brendan Haywood) to make the difference. The Tar Heels are 4-0 in league play. 4 straight games against ranked opponents led to 2 wins for Georgia Tech. Wake Forest couldn't guard Tech's 'T Halston Lane with its tall forwards. Illinois couldn't guard Iowa's 'T Luke Recker with anyone.
Missouri has played an overtime game with Illinois, double-overtime with Iowa and now quadruple-overtime with Iowa State. That tells you they can hold their own with the best of teams, but it also tells you they can't make a defensive stop when they need to when the game's on the line. G Clarence Gilbert and 'T Kareem Rush can be great on the offensive end, but neither one is going to shut down a marquee opponent with their D. (Let's see if they can handle Virginia on Saturday in regulation.)
For all of their blowout scores against no-account teams, Florida, Maryland, Alabama and Arkansas don't have one good win to show for it. G Teddy Dupay and F Brent Wright will miss most of the regular season with injuries for Florida. Maryland gets another chance to join the conversation when it hosts Wake Forest on Wednesday. A double dose of victory for Alabama (over Mississippi and Arkansas) will go a long way to prove they're not just a sideshow for G Rod Grizzard's circus shots.
No Top-10 matchups on tap this week. Arizona has two big home games (against USC and UCLA) which reperesent its last chance to maintain contact with Stanford in the Pac-10 race. Seton Hall has 2 more chances for its first solid wins (at home against Georgetown on Monday and Syracuse on Sunday). The Pirates are too young to be consistent enough for league play, but at some point, they may yet consolidate their considerable talents and prove worthy of a ranking on the court.
The WCC and the Ivy League are the only name conferences that feature Friday-Saturday games as part of their regular league schedule. In addition, the WCC also has its teams play home-and-away against the same team in consecutive games during the season. The first set of such games are Wednesday and Saturday.
Speaking of unbalanced, here's to Lefty's Loonies (Georgia State's version of the SUNY B Psycho Squad). Gotta love silly college kids full of joy.
SEC-Saw
Florida has lost 3 starters to injury (G Teddy Dupay, F Brent Wright and G Justin Hamilton). They're already 1-3 in the conference and they haven't even played any of the elite teams yet. The regular season looks like a lost cause at this point. They may be able to regroup behind a new identity in time to make a run in the conference tournament; but more likely, it looks like last year's national runners-up will be headed to the NIT this year. So far, Arkansas has beaten Alabama, which beat Mississippi, which beat Kentucky, which beat Tennessee. The only problem is, that's almost exactly the opposite order in which I have them currently rated! You can't always go by transitivity. All of the above were home wins. The only road breakthrough among the elite teams in the league so far was Ole Miss' 5-point win at Arkansas. You have to take a closer look at the nature of the Ws and Ls. Arkansas (2), Alabama (2) and Mississippi (1) all have rout losses on the road. That's a sign of teams that quit when things get tough. Florida's games have all been down to the wire. Kentucky doesn't have any rout wins yet. Tennessee hung in at Rupp Arena even in a losing effort (but there's that troublesome rout loss to Virginia on a neutral court that speaks poorly of their inner resolve).
The Big East has a similar makeup this year with several teams that are evenly balanced. The scheduling is even more unbalanced there because of two factors: (1) all the teams don't play each other even once during the regular season, and (2) because the balance of power isn't even -- the East Division has only 2 national-calibre teams (Boston College and Connecticut, plus an improving St. John's squad); the West has 4 (Syracuse, Georgetown, Seton Hall and Notre Dame). Usually, it's better to pay attention to the meetings in the regular season and discount the desperation results from conference tournaments when trying to figure out how teams will do in the NCAAs. In the case of the Big East, though, there'll be so much that's still unresolved from the regular season that their conference tournament will be quite important.
Kansas has shifted into a higher gear now that the regular season is well under way. You can even chalk up their one rout loss at Wake Forest to the fact that F Kenny Gregory didn't play in that game. Once again, they look like Final Four contenders; but the Jayhawks always look this good during the regular season. Is there anything different about this year's edition that suggests a better fate in the postseason? Not so far. Avoid praising them too highly until they get some more elite conference games under their belt.
Michigan State and Illinois have already shown that they're a cut above the rest of the pack in the Big 10. Their showdown in Champaign-Urbana on 6 February will likely determine the regular season crown. Both Wisconsin and Iowa play their games too close to the vest to expect them to get through a regular season schedule without a few slip-ups. (Witness the Hawkeyes' home loss to Michigan this past week.)
Lute Olson is back on the sidelines for Arizona following the death of his wife. That kind of personal tragedy may well serve as a rallying point to unite a team that was coming apart at the seams. The finality of the loss can be a release from the lingering sadness when someone is chronically ill. (Once the season is over, things may really fall apart for them personally, but the on-going task of the season to focus on can be a positive distraction in the meantime.) Maryland finally got a Top 25 win by beating Wake Forest. They had been dutifully routing no-account teams in the meantime. (They have recovered a bit of swagger and self-confidence just in time for their big match with Duke this week.) Likewise, Seton Hall finally got its first Top 25 victory, at home over Syracuse. (Trouble is, a home loss to Georgetown came in the same week.)
Big doings in the ACC this week. Duke hosts Wake Forest on Wednesday and then travels to Maryland on Saturday. (Let's hope Jason Williams cuts out the taunting at the end of the game this time. I, for one, was glad the Boston College player shoved him at the end of that blowout. Williams is headed for Player of the Year, but there's no need to show up a defeated opponent like he did with time running out.) Texas' stay in the Top 25 may be short-lived with two big road games on tap this week (at Oklahoma and at Arizona). Only a sweep of Syracuse at home and Georgetown on the road could get Notre Dame back in the national conversation. Don't hold your breath.
Extended Play
Tennessee lost in double-overtime to Georgia despite having a 16-point lead on the road in the first half. A long dry spell in the second half for UT allowed the Dawgs to come all the way back. They now lead the SEC East at 6-1, but all of their wins over the other conference powers are by the narrowest of margins. Give them their due this week, but don't expect it to last. Wake Forest also went down in OT on the road at Cincinnati. That loss is a bit more disturbing because they were behind from the start against a team that hasn't been showing much form lately.
Michigan State, which had beaten Ohio State by 15 at home the week before, lost to the Buckeyes in Columbus by 9. OSU was able to keep the Spartans from running and held them at bay with a 2-3 zone. Granted G Charlie Bell was fighting the flu, but an elite team should have found a way to win this one. In the meantime, Arizona has regained its own elite form. The Wildcats put a 28-point hurt on previously ranked Texas. L Michael Wright is again the inside focus rather than C Loren Woods.
Notre Dame did indeed pull off two victory against ranked conference opponents last week (vs Syracuse and at Georgetown). In the second game, they even completely the comeback on the road without C Troy Murphy, who had already fouled out. If they can consistently be more than a showcase for Murphy, there might be a big finish in store at the season's end.
Fresno State breaks into the rankings on the strength of its 52-point win over conference power UTEP (and in light of its earlier 19-point win over newly ranked Georgia). G Tito Maddux has made quite a difference for this team since becoming eligible.
A couple of sad events happened in the world of college basketball last week. Al McGuire, the long-time coach of Marquette passed away. His greatest coaching achievement was the 1977 national title (which came at the expense of my beloved North Carolina Tar Heels -- in Atlanta, no less -- in what was supposed the coronation of Dean Smith and Phil Ford as the college game's best coach and player). But McGuire had a bigger impact on the game after he retired from coaching and became an announcer. The experimental 3-man announcing team of McGuire, Billy Packer and Dick Enberg was great. With Enberg handling the play-by-play, McGuire and Packer offered often dueling opinions of what was going on in the game. Their disagreement illuminated what was happening far more than one person's unchallenged viewpoint. (It's the same reason Siskel and Ebert worked so well.) Alas, in the era of the 45-second clock and the 3-pointer, McGuire's concept of "plateaus" doesn't apply to today's game. (It emphasized the psychological importance of having a 2-point lead, a 7-point lead and a 12-point lead in terms of putting a game out of reach. As we've just seen between Duke and Maryland, though, a 12-point lead ain't what it used to be.)
One of the planes carrying the Oklahoma State basketball team crashed over the weekend, killing players, announcers and other associated with the team. Tuesday's game at Texas Tech has been cancelled. Saturday's game with Missouri will be a tough one for them to get through.
Kansas can pretty much put away the Big 12 regular season title this week with wins over Missouri and Texas. The Jayhawks haven't been challenged in conference. Virginia, which has done pretty well blowing away lesser teams, needs some elite wins on its resume (besides Tennessee). They'll get two chances this week when they host Maryland and Wake Forest. If they don't sweep at home, don't put much faith in their getting beyond the Sweet 16 in March. Stanford at least has two decent opponents this week in USC and UCLA (but the lack of competition for them inside the Pac-10 may sow the seeds of upset come tournament time). Georgia won't stay long in the Top 25 if they don't win both home games this week (against Kentucky and Florida). The biggest game of all is a Top 5 matchup now that it's here: North Carolina at Duke on Thursday. (On Coach K Court, you've got to go with the Blue Devils.)
Blue Shift
Stanford finally lost its first game of the year to UCLA. They're better off in the long run with the distraction of trying to post an undefeated season no longer on the plate. The point was made, though, that when 'T Casey Jacobsen has a bad game (4-for-18 shooting) that a team with a strong perimeter attack can put the Cardinal in jeopardy. Kansas lost its yearly road game at Missouri. That's nothing new. Virginia turned in two fine performances at home against conference powers Maryland and Wake Forest. This is a team that is likely to be underseeded come tournament time because of their won-loss record; but once they get away from the rough ACC schedule, they should be a very tough team to deal with. (Don't be blinded by the 42-point loss at Duke.)
Illinois and Arizona continue to turn in one impressive performance followed by one dud. With the Wildcats, the problem seems to be motivation and focus (and defense) whereas with the Illini it's more a case of spotty offense until G Frank Williams decides to take the game over all by himself at the end; (I still maintain that the failure to get consistent distributing scoring from the rest of the starters will come back to haunt this team; one guy is not going to win 6 NCAA games single-handedly).
Butler turned in one of the most surprising wins of the year with a 58-44 victory at Wisconsin. This was no fluke, either. It's essentially the same bunch that nearly knocked out eventual finalist Florida in the first round of last year's NCAA tournament. Speaking of the Gators, G Teddy Dupay has miraculously return to the squad after having back surgery on January 10th. He played some decent minutes in the win over Tennessee. Over at Iowa, the news is just the reverse: 'T Luke Recker reinjured his knee in the Indiana game and won't return before tournament time (if then).
Midway through conference play, St. Joseph's (led by freshman point guard Jameer Nelson) in the Atlantic 10 and UC-Irvine (led by G Jerry Green) in the Big West have emerged after having quiet preseasons. Gonzaga has regained its place atop the WCC standings as well. None of those leagues are having strong enough years, though, for the conference leader to break into the rankings without any accompanying out-of-conference Top 25 wins. (But keep an eye on them.)
The Big 10 showdown between Michigan State and Illinois takes place Tuesday in Champaign-Urbana. It's their only meeting of the season thanks to unbalanced scheduling. The Spartans are a good road team, but the Illini feed off of their home crowd (and even came back from 21 down against Seton Hall earlier this year). New top dog North Carolina doesn't get a break with two more tough games (on the road at Wake Forest and then at home against Maryland). Iowa State has quietly slid up the rankings thanks to the soft part of their league schedule. It gets a lot harder this week when they travel to Kansas on Monday and then host Missouri (in the rematch of their 4-overtime encounter the first go-around) on Sunday. Tennessee needs to deliver solid performances on the road (against Arkansas and Mississippi) in order to toughen itself up for the postseason. (Don't miss the lodero-vs-lodero matchup of UT's Ron Slay and Ole Miss' Rahim Lockhart. It'll be muddy bliss.)
The Land Of The Blind
Some teams, like Georgia Tech for example, benefit from the constant presence of name teams on their schedule which provides numerous opportunities for wins that make people take notice. In fact, Virginia, Wake Forest and Maryland are probably all ranked too high this week, having fed off each other's reputations. (Trouble is, nobody below them is really playing Top-15 ball, either. There's a big drop off after this week's top 6 teams. The rest is a grab bag of teams that look good one week but not the next, mostly based on how tough their schedule is.)
Illinois used the home crowd to good advantage to jump start itself after Michigan State sprinted to a 7-0 lead in their Big 10 showdown. Best of all, it wasn't G Frank Williams or C Marcus Griffin who did the damage for the Illini. It was reserve F Robert Archibald, F Sergio McClain and preseason conference Player of the Year, G Cory Bradford (20p) who came through for a change. But don't be fooled. On a neutral court, the outcome would have been quite different between these two. Check back when they meet again in the conference tournament final.
Iowa State's backcourt of Jamaal Tinsley, Kantrail Horton and freshman Jake Sullivan abused Kansas on the road in the first meeting between the top two Big 12 teams. (Only bad free throw shooting down the stretch let KU make it close.) Round Two comes this Saturday in Ames. If only the Cyclones had a frontcourt to do justice to their spectacular guards. On Sunday, ISU beat a decimated Missouri team -- 'T Kareem Rush is out for the season with an injured thumb, and G Clarence Gilbert has been suspended.
North Carolina continued to roll along with two more big wins (at Wake Forest and at home against Maryland). Hopefully, the Tar Heels haven't peaked too early. Loderos Kentucky and Mississippi have gotten stronger thanks to the tough SEC schedule. Both teams are better defensively than offensively and that has allowed them to stifle the high-flying finesse teams in the league that make the highlight reels.
Arizona gets to prove it has come all the way back to the national elite pack if it can sweep regrouped UCLA and tough USC on the road this week. Tennessee couldn't handle two tough road assignments last week; this week, they've got two tougher games at home (first Kentucky, then Florida). Maybe it's a good sign that their annual swoon is happening now, before tournament play comes upon them. A couple of odd intersectional games are on tap this week: Ohio State travels to Tuscaloosa to face Alabama on Saturday, and Wyoming plays Creighton for the second time this year (and the first one wasn't in a tournament). The mighty Ivy League showdown is upon us. Thankfully, one of the teams has managed a winning record: Princeton (10-8) travels to Penn (8-13) on Tuesday (and Penn's definitely the favorite!)
Idiot Check
Arizona is finally starting to look like a Final Four team again. Never mind the overtime loss at UCLA. Both teams played very well in that one. Pay more attention to the 40-point road blowout of USC two days later in which the Wildcats shot 14-for-19 on 3-pointers. G Gilbert Arenas turned in two fabulous performances (30p and 27p, respectively). He's the most complete player in the country; he just doesn't stand out as much on a team with 4 other star players. (Don't worry, Duke's G Jason Williams still has Player of the Year locked up.)
For their part, UCLA has been living up to their talent a lot better lately. Motivation still seems to be a problem, though. After giving it all they had against Arizona, the Bruins struggled to hold off Arizona State at home a couple of nights later. But at least they're solidly back in the national conversation after having taken over second place in the Pac-10. The other name team who started the season with a bust, Kentucky, has made a slower (but more sturdy) recovery to solid play. 'T Tayshaun Prince is hitting his outside shots now and is taking the big shots when the game is only the line. The Wildcats are a lodero team, though -- strong on defense but not spectacular on offense -- so they don't draw as much attention in the highlight-clip mindset that pervades us. But don't overlook the lodero teams like Illinois, Kentucky, Mississippi, Wisconsin and Southern Mississippi; all those finesse teams (Duke, Arizona, Virginia, UCLA, Tennessee) who want to get out and run can fall apart if you make them hang around and play an ugly, "muddy" game.
Speaking of the Volunteers, Tennessee was 16-1 and ranked #4 at one point; but they've lost 7 out of their last 9 games to fall to 18-8 and only hang on in the rankings due to strength of schedule. Clearly, they left their game behind in the hotel room. Syracuse has lost 3 out of 4 themselves. In fact, the overall balance in the Big East seems to be dragging those teams down rather than building them up. (Seton Hall is actually in danger of not even qualifying for the conference tournament.) In the SEC, though, (other than Tennessee) the balance has seemed to strengthen the mettle of the top teams.
Virginia avenged their 40-point loss at Duke with a 2-point win at home. I had a discussion a little while back about how many points home court advantage is worth. I think the overall statistic (of all 319 Division I teams) is less than 5 points when comparing the same opponents home and away. Among the (Top 50 or so) trackable teams, it seems more like at least a 10-point swing between home and away. This season's biggest discrepancy just happened: @ Fresno State 108 UTEP 56 and then @ UTEP 80 Fresno State 61 three weeks later: a 71-point Sixth Man factor!
An interesting intersectional game took place on Sunday when Alabama took care of Ohio State 85-67. State's not quite a conference leader in the Big 10 so it's tough to draw much of a conclusion from that one result. Another glimpse comes this Saturday when Oklahoma travels to Maryland. Florida, which has survived its bouts with injuries just fine, has two big home games coming up (Mississippi on Wednesday, and Alabama on Saturday). Boston College, which has had it easy in the East Division of the Big East, has two tougher road games this week (at Notre Dame on Wednesday, and at Providence on Saturday).
A couple of more weeks until the good stuff!!!
Ground Level
Florida continued its dominant play with two more runaway victories at home over tough opponents (Mississippi and Alabama). The Gators have won 9 out of 10 since stumbling for a couple of games when they were beset by key injuries (and they get to repay their 1-point loss at Kentucky during that stretch when the Wildcats come to Gainesville on Sunday). C Udonis Haslem has been unguardable in the post, G Brett Nelson is perpetually "on" at guard and G Teddy Dupay hasn't shown any ill effects from midseason back surgery. There's no 'tweener attack this year and there isn't quite the same depth of A-list talent that let them be a win-by-attrition team last year. This year, it's just win-by-executionl; they're still pushing the pace on offense, but they aren't relying on getting teams in foul trouble like the '00 squad did.
It's tournament time this week in the lesser conferences, but some few key regular season games remain in among the big boys. Duke has rematches of two of the best games of the year when they host Maryland on Tuesday and visit North Carolina on Sunday. Stanford gets the chance to pay back its only loss of the season when the Cardinal travel to UCLA on Saturday. The lodero teams didn't do so well in big games last week - Illinois, Kentucky, Mississippi and Wisconsin all went down in games where they couldn't match the easy baskets of their opponents; Southern Mississippi will try its hand in two big home games this week (Memphis and South Florida).
The unbalanced schedules of the regular season are about to give way to the level-ground playing field of the conference tournaments (except for the host teams with the huge home crowd advantage). In the Sun Belt, no fewer than 4 teams have every right to feel they're the best team (Western Kentucky, South Alabama, Louisiana Tech and Lousiana-Lafayette) as they all took turns beating each other. The edge this week goes to USA, however, which is the host school for the conference tournament.
It's "do or die" time!
Payback
Maryland has recovered from the effects of blowing a 10-point lead at Duke a month ago. The Terps hung with the Blue Devils in Cameron Indoor Stadium on Tuesday night and then pulled ahead when Duke C Carlos Boozer left the game midway through the second half with a foot injury. This time they didn't give up the lead and won 91-80 in Durham. But they didn't stop there. On Saturday, they reversed a lopsided loss at Virginia by pounding the Cavaliers -- who've been playing well of late -- by 35 points. UM is the team best suited this year to play the win-by-attrition style that has been the trademark of the most recent national champions. (But things may be trending a different way this year.)
Stanford avenged its only loss of the season by beating UCLA at Pauley Pavilion. The Bruins couldn't stop the Cardinal Collins twins' high-low game as Stanford dominated the boards. Stanford can claim a "virtually undefeated" season having beaten every opponent they've faced at least once, but don't be lulled into too much faith in their greatness. They still have to host surging Arizona on Thursday and as strong as they are inside, there are lots of teams this year with strength on the perimeter who don't have to go into the lane to do damage. Duke was beating them with that game when they met earlier this year but the Blue Devils lost control because they didn't know when to let the air out.
On paper, Duke appeared to be vulnerable to North Carolina's size in the frontcourt (with Carlos Boozer out with a broken bone in his foot) when those two played at Chapel Hill on Sunday. But the smaller, quicker lineup (with freshman G Chris Duhon playing along side of G Jason Williams for most of the game rather than spelling him) gave Carolina a matchup problem of their own to deal with. UNC coach Matt Doherty wound up sitting down his big men C Brendan Haywood and F Kris Lang for much of the second half because they were too slow to guard the Blue Devils. Williams had another monster game (33p,9a) and 'T Shane Battier had 25p,11r,5b,4s. The strategy paid off for one game as Duke shot 16-for-38 from 3-point land. (But can they do it every game from here on out -- now that it's one-and-done time -- living on 3s without dying by them?)
Florida handled Kentucky at home, avenging an earlier 1-point loss at Rupp Arena. Mississippi beat Alabama by 34 (after losing by 19 the first time around). What do all of these reversals mean? Mainly, that there's no dominant team out there that can win home and away against all kinds of styles. (North Carolina had looked like they had that kind of versatility, but the Tar Heels have gone 3 straight weeks now without showing the ability to impose their will on a big game.) There are a lot of decent teams out there -- maybe as many as 40 -- which are on their game enough to believe they can make Sweet 16.
Before we get to the Big Dance, though, let's take time to appreciate the Little Dances. Conference tournaments have a charm all their own. Making a splash in the NCAAs is just wishful thinking for most schools, but everyone can feel they have a good chance to string together one good weekend and win their tournament to qualify for the field. 4 teams earned an automatic bid to the NCAAs over the weekend. By far the most impressive is Georgia State. Coach Lefty Driesell became only the second coach (after Eddie Sutton) to take 4 different schools to the NCAA tournament. (Davidson, Maryland and James Madison were the others.) These Panthers are small, but lightning quick defenders with a balanced attack where 4 different players can comfortably hit the 3 (including center Thomas Terrell). Their big weakness is size. (Terrell is only 6-7.) They should get a #12 seed in the tournament and as long as their opponents aren't huge in the post, don't be surprised if they do some major damage. They're tremendously entertaining to watch, at the least.
The remaining conference tournaments get underway this week. Usually the brackets are set up so that the top few teams receive byes with the remaining teams playing preliminary round of 16 games. Normally, the tournaments are played on a neutral site, or the schools rotate being the host of the tournament. In the Big Sky (which has 9 members), however, only the top 6 teams make the conference tournament with the top 2 teams receiving a bye into the semifinal round and the regular season champ earning the right to host the tournament. (I guess they want to really make sure an "undeserving" team doesn't break through and represent them in the NCAAs.)
Michigan State and Illinois only played once this season with the Illini winning on their home floor. The Big 10 tournament is in Chicago, so it doesn't exactly qualify as a neutral court, either. The Spartans have been playing much better ball than Illinois has of late, though. In the ACC, North Carolina earned the top seed despite just losing to Duke and the Tar Heels have the easier draw; but it's Maryland that's playing the best ball among those schools at the moment. The SEC is much the same story: Florida just beat Kentucky but wound up with a lower seed and a much tougher draw (but at least they're the form horse). Iowa State's great 3-man backcourt trumps anything the other Big 12 teams have, so look for the Cyclones to validate the Year After Rule by repeating as tournament champs -- they won the regular season -- the year after their superstar Marcus Fizer graduated. (When you learn how to win behind a great player, the winning attitude remains after he's gone.) Your guess is as good as mine as to what to expect in the topsy-turvy Big East. Boston College has the most mature guard play and Georgetown has the best array of big men, but those two teams never met in the regular season and, besides, form didn't hold from one game to the next in that league. Be sure to check out sleepers Gonzaga (WCC), Fresno State (WAC) and Utah State (Big West) in their conference finals.
Louisville has decided to buy out the contract of Hall of Fame coach Denny Crum. His last game will likely come in the Conference USA tournament, which is coincidentally being held at Louisville this year. Nobody else used the ploy of inverting his offense, pulling his forwards and centers out of the lane so he could post up his taller, more physical guards the way Denny did with many teams. That, to me, was always the essence of Denny's style, not the "Doctors of Dunk" that made the highlights. (They did invent the "high five", though, right?)
Last year, half of the WAC teams split off and formed a new conference, the Mountain West. Neither conference received an automatic bid a year ago, but this year they both will. Furthermore, the NCAA has decided that, rather than reduce the number of at-large bids by one, they will now invite 65 teams to the tournament and force two teams from the lesser conferences to meet in a preliminary round "play-in" game in Dayton, Ohio on Tuesday, 13 March before the full first round gets under way on Thursday the 15th. (For those of you in the Hoops Contest, that Play-In game will count as a 1/2 point bonus pick.)
The postseason is here!!!
(The Real) Survivor
With the whirlwind pace with which "Championship Week" goes by and the anticipatory excitement of the unveiling of the NCAA tournament bracket, it can be easy to overlook everything that happened this past week. In some ways winning your conference tournament is more difficult than winning in the NCAA tournament. You have win 3 games in 3 days against teams which (usually) have already played you twice. There's no element of surprise factor working in your favor -- your opponents are all very familiar with what you like to do; and they know what has worked and what hasn't worked for them against you in the previous games. In the NCAAs, you get a day off in between 2 games and 4 days off after that. Championship Week is the real Survivor test.
There are still two conferences without a season-ending tournament (soon to be only one next year). In the Ivy League, Princeton beat back Pennsylvania to take the title with an 11-3 mark. In the off-season, the Tigers had lost their head coach (Bill Carmody, to Northwestern) and their best player (C Chris Young, to focus on baseball). In stepped unproven John Thompson III to pick up the pieces. Give JT3 his props for holding things together, but this title is more a measure of how weak the rest of the league turned out to be. PU opened its season at the feet of Duke and now they'll get to close things out at the hands of North Carolina.
Stanford backed its way into the Pac-10 title. On Thursday, Arizona edged them out in a great game in Palo Alto on a turnaround shot in the lane by L Michael Wright with :02 left for a 76-@75 victory. The Cardinal had gotten the jump against slumping Arizona at the very beginning of conference play. They also split away and home against UCLA. So, although, Stanford got a #1 seed in the West Regional and UCLA is #4 in the East, don't be fooled into thinking there's that much of a margin of difference between those two squads (and all the rest in between).
Gonzaga paid back its only conference loss of the year by edging Santa Clara in the WCC final. They handled their lodero rivals Pepperdine comfortably, but a team that can run with them (like, e.g., Virginia) isn't so easy for them to put away. Butler had no trouble winning the MCC tourney. Western Kentucky (featuring 7' C Chris Marcus) won the Sun Belt tourney comfortably on their opponent(South Alabama)'s home floor.
UNC-Charlotte went through all 3 of the more high-profile teams (South Florida, Southern Mississippi and Cincinnati, in succession) in the Conference USA tournament to make it back to the NCAAs. G Diego Guevara is still around. (You may remember him as the ball-headed guy who blew kisses to his wife in the stands after 3-pointers. The shaved-head look is gone, but the 3s are still falling.) The 49ers are led, though, by 'T Rodney White, the leading scorer in the nation among freshmen. (Tennessee's L Ron Slay had better bring all he's got on Friday.)
St. Joseph's and Fresno State didn't even make it to the finals of their conference tournaments (the Atlantic 10 and the WAC). They both earned NCAA bids despite the weakness of those two leagues. Utah State trounced its opponents in winning the Big West title (thanks to UC-Irvine's early exit). The Aggies play great position defense and have good size (if not great athleticism).
In the Big 10, both of the conference juggernauts managed to lose before the final. (But both Illinois and Michigan State were rewarded with #1 seeds, anyway.) It was left to the likes of overachieving Iowa (with the nation's leading rebounder, F Reggie Evans) and underappreciated Indiana to battle for the tournament crown. The Hawkeyes prevailed (barely).
In the Big East tournament, Seton Hall made one last run at playing up to their potential, beating back St. John's (in Madison Square Garden) and routing Georgetown. They were holding their own in the semifinal at 42-42 before Boston College shifted into another gear and closed out the game with a 33-6 run. The Eagles were no less impressive in the final. G Troy Bell isn't flashy, but he's got the full complement of skills you need and he knows when and how to use them.
Mississippi's lodero style frustrated undisciplined Tennessee and held Florida at bay. But in the SEC final, Kentucky's lodero baseline trumped Ole Miss' L Rahim Lockhart inside. (The Wildcats might have looked good here, but they had the easier draw in the SEC tournament. Don't put too much faith in their NCAA fortunes because, basically, they're built just about the same as North Carolina: tall and slow up front, one 'tweener, a scoring guard, and mediocrity at the point. That formula didn't faze Duke much on Sunday and it won't in two week's time, either.)
In the rough and ready Big 12, Oklahoma survived 3 brutal games against Missouri, Kansas and then Texas in the final. The Sooners have thrived even without guard J.R. Raymond (who was dismissed from the team at the end of February).
As for the Blue Devils, Duke was once again fabulous in its rout of North Carolina in the ACC final. Too much quickness, too much ball-handling, too many 'tweeners that can't be defended by tall/slow forwards and short/unquick guards. Don't overlook Maryland. They suitably routed Wake Forest in the semifinal and once again seem to be the only team who can go head-to-head with Duke and stay in the game.
The NCAA Seeding Committee backed itself into a corner by stressing strength of schedule so much to coaches. They wound up forcing their own hand by taking in 16-14 Georgia and leaving out 21-10 Alabama (with two of the most exciting players in the country -- 'T Rod Grizzard and F Gerald Wallace). There were very few "snakebite" upsets this year with teams from the lesser conferences knocking off the Big Boys, so there's not too much argument with which teams were left out this year. The problem (as it always is with the Haves and the Have-Nots) is access. How can you pull off big victories when the big teams won't play you? That Catch 22 situation is a familiar one in many different walks of life. There were 4 split-personality teams this year: UCLA, Tennessee, Seton Hall and Alabama. Two got in and two were left out. That's just about right. Inexplicably, the NIT has the latter two facing off against each other in the first round on Tuesday night.
My on-going beef with the way the NCAA draw is made out is that the ACC champion gets to play its first two games in Greensboro or Charlotte every year. It's so wrong it's not funny. Duke used the Greensboro Coliseum as their home court when they played Illinois this year in the ACC-BIG 10 CHALLENGE. No other team in the tournament gets to play on an alternate home court. It's a free pass into the Sweet 16 that happens every year. Expect Duke to race past all comers in the the weak East. The South Region is loaded with good teams that are playing well at the moment; 7 teams have a shot to come out of there. The Midwest is full of teams who were inconsistent at best and down right self-destructive at worst. Arizona is the most talented, but Mississippi could pull the same lodero upset on them this year that Wisconsin did last year; then there's the rubber match with Illinois looming in the final. In the West, Maryland and Stanford should have no trouble making the final.
Hey, if Butler could use its waterbug style to beat Wisconsin, there's no reason to think Georgia State can't do the same (setting up a matchup between coach Lefty Driesell and his former school, Maryland). C Loren Woods may get to play against his former school, Wake Forest in the second round as well.
No rest for the weary.
Not By Guards Alone
Who needs a conference tournament? The Pac-10 teams did just fine, thank you, going 8-1 so far in the NCAA tournament and placing 4 teams in the Sweet 16. Without having a late-season loss on their schedule that tournament play would have provided all but one team, they probably got slightly better seeds than they would have otherwise. (Only USC beat a higher-seed, Boston College, on its way to the Regionals.) Even Arizona and Stanford played a 1-point nail-biter the last week of the regular season, which didn't hurt the reputation of either team. But the conference has already voted to conduct its own tournament beginning next season.
We don't have a true Cinderella team in the Sweet 16 this year. Penn State and Temple pulled off the biggest surprises in the second round on paper, with North Carolina and Florida being highly thought of by many. But after having already beaten both Illinois and Michigan State this year, knocking off the Tar Heels doesn't even qualify as the Nittany Lions' best win of the season. Georgetown did knock off Arkansas, but the draw opened up for both them and for Cincinnati with Iowa State and Indiana going down. Gonzaga's win over slumping Virginia was big on paper, but Casey Calvary is going to his third consecutive Sweet 16.
Mike Montgomery, Roy Williams and John Chaney won two games this year when teams with high expectations last year couldn't pull it off. Kansas hasn't been this far since 1997 and Stanford not since 1998, although they've been favored to do so every year. Mississippi made the third round for the first time ever while USC hasn't done it in 45 years.
The Super-5 squads (Arizona and Duke) turned in impressive performances. Attrition worked for Maryland, Kansas and Gonzaga, but not for Florida and Wake Forest (which turned in the most uninspired postseason performance this side of Tennessee -- 10 points at half-time? C'mon!) Lodero Mississippi barely made it through two games, but Wisconsin lost to waterbug Georgia State. Guards matter, but not enough. Other scrappy guard-oriented teams, Butler and St. Joseph's were good for a first-round upset but went down to more complete teams in Round 2. Highly ranked guard-only teams, Iowa State and Virginia, were nipped at the buzzer in the first round. The Cyclones, in particular, were clearly the weakest of the #2 seeds on paper and hadn't been playing well down the stretch as it was (having lost in the first round of the Big 12 tournament to Baylor and having been blown away by Texas at the end of the regular season), but even that wasn't enough to expect the loss to Hampton, the biggest upset of the tournament. You had to love the scene of Hampton coach Steve Merfeld kicking his arms and legs in the air while being held aloft by one of his players. You can't buy a moment of joy like that for a million dollars.
The Play-In game last Tuesday night was fun to watch and it gave Northwestern State a tournament win and all; but this year's draw could've gotten along just fine without Xavier or Oklahoma State (the lowest-seeded at-large teams), I think. For all the trouble of playing the toughest-rated schedule in the country, Georgia wound up 16-15 with a 0.0 point-differential for the season (72.0 ppg on offense, 72.0 ppg on defense) and a buzzer-beater loss in the opening round #8-#9 game against Missouri. That's the NCAA's poster team whose example they want others to follow? I'd much rather have had Alabama in this tournament (with its weak nonconference schedule) than Georgia.
When was the last time a neutral crowd gave a standing ovation to a losing player (as they did for St. Joseph's' Marvin O'Connor, who scored 37 points in defeat against Stanford)? Maybe David Robinson and his 50 points in a tournament loss against Michigan? The Hawks' guard attack led by O'Connor and Jameer Nelson was almost enough to derail the title hopes of Stanford in the best played game of the tournament so far. The Cardinal's height and free throw-shooting down the stretch saved them. The stars didn't disappoint in the shootout between Duke and Missouri. The final score was deceiving. That game was mighty close until about 5 or 6 minutes left.
In the NIT, they'll be down to the semifinals after Friday night. Alabama is the most appealing team left in the field. The big problem with the NIT is that the results depend heavily on which teams are awarded the home game, which isn't decided on any kind of equal fairness basis. (It's mostly about which teams generate the most money in the early rounds and which ones expect to do so when they get to New York City.)
In the NCAAs, UCLA is in a no-pressure situation in their matchup against Duke, which may allow them to make a good game of it. But Kentucky's lack of quickness will be no match for the Blue Devils in the Regional final. A much-anticipated Stanford-Maryland final looms in the West Regional. The Cardinal inside game should nullify the Terps' C Lonny Baxter so the outcome will likely turn on whether Stanford has any better luck against the backcourt of Steve Blake and Juan Dixon than it did against Nelson and O'Connor. Compare how much 'T Casey Jacobsen will be in the middle of everything to the disappearing act 'T Terence Morris puts on in a game where he ought to be a determining factor. Based on their form in the tournament, I'll go with Stanford at this point (although before it started I thought the other way around). Gonzaga doesn't figure to have much chance at stopping Michigan State's return to their third consecutive Final Four. The up-tempo style the Zags will force will only serve to lessen the nerves of the favored Spartans. Set your VCRs for a spectacular show by 'T Jason Richardson in that one. Temple's clogging defense should give MSU more trouble. The Owls were able to confound Florida and, early in the season, Kentucky played its lodero game in East Lansing and only lost by 1. Expect lots of free throws in the double-attrition meeting of Illinois and Kansas. The Jayhawks don't have anyone who can stop G Frank Williams when it gets down to winning time, so the Illini should prevail. Arizona is playing too well this year to be derailed by a lodero team (Mississippi) like they were last year (Wisconsin). Round III of Arizona-Illinois should be the best game of the weekend. On a neutral floor, I'll take the Wildcats.
GGTLC GGTTF GGTTC GGTFF
Sometimes you can't see the forest for the trees. After all the ups and downs in the college basketball season, the top 3 teams from the preseason have made it to the Final Four (and the fourth is defending champ Michigan State). It's a deserving Final Four, too. The other elite pretenders can't claim they were snakebit. Stanford got beat straight-up by Maryland in the West Regional final; Illinois' hack-a-Shaq tactic thankfully didn't succeed against Arizona. (They were supposed to clean up rough play this year by calling things tighter, but how do you prevent the sheer number of fouls? 6 Illinois goons fouled out while committing 36 fouls, sending Arizona to the line to shoot 56 free throws. Illinois coach Bill Self said in interviews before the game "we can't let this game be about spectacular plays". The Jordan Rules live on: beat up the ones with superior talent to drag them down to a level where you can compete. That game was hideous to watch.) Florida had seemed to be peaking towards the end of the regular season, but in the SEC tournament, Mississippi had been able to slow them down. In the NCAA tournament, Temple worked its snakecharmer act and lulled them into passivity and blew them out in the process. North Carolina, the last of the elite pretenders, had begun its decline several weeks before the season ended so that it wasn't too much of a surprise for them to get bounced so early by Penn State.
Maryland's C Lonny Baxter was great in both games in the West Regional. Against Georgetown's huge front line, he was physical -- one power tomahawk dunk, in particular, stands out. Against Stanford, his ability to get out and run and play at a faster pace than the Cardinal's Collins twin towers was key. Once Stanford got behind, the low post offense just took too much time to score when they needed to match points and catch up to the Terrapins. G Juan Dixon's quickness on the perimeter was also a key. Stanford has been misperceived as a Final Four-calibre program on a par with Duke and Kentucky ever since 1998. But they barely made it in that year on a last-second steal against Rhode Island. In ensuing years, they have shown a weakness to quick teams (like UConn) and Maryland was no different.
G Jason Williams' 19 straight points for Duke against UCLA were certainly spectacular. 'T Shane Battier earlier had 20 straight points against Georgia Tech. But you can have Battier, I'll take Williams. This season, the guards have taken the limelight back from the 'tweeners. Still, each one of this year's semifinalist features a 'tweener in the starting lineup. 'T Jason Richardson was great defending G Quincy Wadley of Temple on Sunday, but it was G Charlie Bell's defense on G Lynn Greer that made that game much easier for Michigan State than it might have been. Temple's game plan only works when they have the lead, but they got behind right off the bat. That thrown-away inbound pass that gave MSU an easy lay-up at the start of the second half was huge. It took another 10 minutes just to whittle the lead back down again. 'T Richard Jefferson did a great job defending G Frank Williams of Illinois, who was coming off of a career-high 30 points against Kansas in the Midwest Regional semifinal. But it was G Gilbert Arenas early and G Jason Gardner (and C Loren Woods, to be fair) late who allowed Arizona to persevere through lodero basketball at its worst. Only 'T Terence Morris wasn't much of a key player in Maryland's victories (or its success most of the season, really).
When was the last time two teams from different conferences played each other 3 times (as Arizona and Illinois did)? It was only last year that two teams from the same conference (Michigan State and Wisconsin) played 4 times and we're due for Duke-Maryland IV come Saturday. Maryland knows it can hold its own with Duke head-to-head. Duke will be well rested, so we shouldn't see the tired shooting they exhibited in the East Regional final against USC. If Terence Morris were capable of defending Shane Battier, the tandem of Juan Dixon and Lonny Baxter might be enough to counteract Jason Williams. But there's no reason to expect that to happen now all of a sudden, so look for Williams to go wild yet again in the national spotlight. He'll likely be the Final Four's Most Outstanding Player, win or lose.
Arizona has survived the clean lodero play of Mississippi and the GoonBall of Illinois. Thankfully, Michigan State only has one designated fouler: Aloysius Anagonye. The 'tweener matchup between Jason Richardson and Richard Jefferson promises to be special. Hopefully, Gilbert Arenas won't get beat down to the point of ineffectiveness in the second half as happened against the Illini. Loren Woods shrunk to the occasion in the Midwest Regional final for 35 minutes and then was a terror defensively and a cool customer on the foul line in the last five minutes. MSU has more skilled offensive players than UI (although you could hardly top Robert Archibald's post play), though, so he (and L Michael Wright) will have to show up for the entire game. We're in for 3 great games, y'all.
In the NIT, Alabama gets the chance to style on national TV in the appetizer games Tuesday and Thursday while we're waiting for the main course on Saturday and Monday night. Coach Buzz Peterson has taken Bill Self's leftovers at Tulsa and brought them to Madison Square Garden. And that man John Calipari took the hand he was dealt with at Memphis and here's made it to the Big Apple as well. Look for 'T Rod Grizzard and F Gerald Wallace to turn it out in Da Gahden.
[P.S. It's not a DNA sequence, it's the description by position of the starting fives for the Final Four teams. My pick to win it all is GGTLC (Arizona).]
Volume V, No. 22 - Apr 4: Universal Replacements
(c) 2000-01 Ron McBay
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